2 Key Lessons From this Disappointing Season

We have a bye this week, so I thought I'd take the time to reflect on 2 key lessons we can learn from this disappointing season.  Of course, we all know that the passing game was completely replaced this season: the quarterback, the receivers, the tight ends. Most of us saw that coming, and most people expected some growing pains. But I don't think any of us thought those losses would hurt the team this much. Well, now we all know better, and hopefully the coaches know better. And that brings us to the first key lesson: the coaches need to do a better job of anticipating those perfect storms of talent loss.

Coaches have to keep an eye out for those situations where the team could end up thin at key positions, especially skilled positions which take longer to develop than other positions. Quarterback, receiver, and tight end must always be well-stocked. The Spartans made a critical mistake with the 2011 recruiting class when they brought in only one clear receiver, Juwan Caeser -- who hasn't played at all this year. Andre Sims was a part of that class, and while he is now playing receiver, it appears he was originally recruited to play cornerback. In fact, Sims and Lippett's development as receivers may have been delayed by the fact that both were origially slated to play on defense.

The quarterback position did not suffer the depth problem quite as much. The Spartans have 3 talented scholarship quarterbacks and several upper-class walk-ons. The bigger problem at quarterback is game experience. Which brings up key lesson number 2 of this horrible season: get your future starters into as many games as possible. 

I remember thinking that last year.  There were a few blowouts where Cousins stayed in the game well into the 4rth quarter, and I remember wondering, "why not get Maxwell in there, it's not like you're protecting his redshirt?" In fact, Maxwell only made 26 throws in 2011. That tells me that the coaches just hadn't thought much about getting key players ready for 2012. We can see the same thing with the receivers. Fowler did get some meaningful playing time the last 2 years, but Lippett only had 4 catches in 2011 and Mumphery only 2.

You can't help but worry that the coaches may make the same mistake in future years. Next year, I could see them having problems with running backs. If Bell leaves early for the NFL, next year's running backs will be relatively inexperienced. Thankfully, running back doesn't take as much time to develop as quarterback and receiver (as Iowa shows every year), but the coaches should still be trying to get next year's potential starters a little more playing time.

Another potential trouble spot is cornerback. Folks, Darqueze Dennard looks like a first or second round draft pick to me and that makes it likely he will leave at the end of this season. That could leave the Spartans thin at the position. So the coaches need to be thinking about that possibility and they need to be communicating with Dennard so that they can plan accordingly.

Finally, after what we've gone through this year, I'll be upset during the 2013 season if the coaches don't play the backup quarterback more often (whoever that turns out to be), especially during blowouts. If the team is up 3 or 4 touchdowns late in the third quarter, why not let the backup play the rest of the game? I don't want the 2014 season to be a repeat of this season, and so I'd like to see the backup get at least 50 pass attempts throughout the 2013 season. 

Thoughts on Roushar

Folks, I don't like to talk about replacing coaches because, of course, human beings are involved. It's a serious matter, and fans often forget that. Moreover, who am I to suggest that someone should be replaced? Who are any of us?

Look, Dan Roushar knows more about football than I'll ever know, and we have to keep in mind that the Spartans have not been as talented on offense during the Dantonio era as many people would like to believe. This year's offense was decimated by graduations and injuries, and the Spartans have never had the o-line talent they've needed. This was going to be a tough offense to manage.

Ironically, I think next year's offense will be loaded. The pieces are coming together: depth and talent at receiver, depth and talent on the o-line, depth and talent at tight end, depth and talent at running back, and best of all, a senior quarterback. So Roushar may finally have the pieces to succeed...somewhat.

You see, I think Roushar is an OK coordinator. He's not as terrible as this year suggests, but, he's also not outstanding. The Indiana game made me realize that. Indiana's first year offensive coordinator looked pretty good, and it made me wonder if MSU could find a guy like that. Michigan also had me thinking about this. Michigan had a decimated receiver corps and they don't even have a running back as good as Bell, and yet they're scoring quite a few points a game. Part of that is Dennard Robinson, but part of it is UM's OC adapting to Dennard's talents. I realize UM pays their OCs quite a bit, and maybe that's the main issue.  Maybe MSU can't go out and hire an elite OC.

So what's the answer? I have no idea. I mean, I used to get upset with the Nardawg and look at how that turned out. Narduzi is now one of the top defensive coordinators in the country. Maybe Roushar just needs one more year and a talented o-line to start looking like a genius. Then again, maybe MSU will never be able to get the kind of o-line talent for Roushar to succeed at MSU. Maybe they need more of a spread offense to deal with the lack of elite talent on the o-line. I don't know. But next year will settle quite a bit of these things. MSU will be as talented on offense as it's ever been. If they continue to struggle next year, then it's time to make fundamental changes.

Of course, the problem with waiting until after the 2013 season to replace Roushar is that the Spartans have the opportunity in 2013 to make their run at a national championship. If everyone comes back, the defense will be elite and the offense will be the most loaded offense MSU has had in my lifetime. A decent offensive coordinator could make the difference.  So many things to weigh!

Spartans Need to Do More Tressel Ball

Former Ohio State coach Jim Tressel was known for developing what many perceived as a boring football strategy, in which you understand that scoring is going to be difficult and thus: you rely on a strong defense and special teams, you don't take many risks, and you minimize mistakes (turnovers and penalties). In my view, Tressel ball is a strategy you don't need to use in every game. Against weaker opponents you can take more risks and experiment with some things. But against tough opponents (especially those with good defenses) Tressel Ball is a must.

If the MSU coaching staff has one flaw, it's that they frequently fail to recognize that a game has turned into a Tressel Ball game. We saw that last year against Notre Dame, for example. The Spartans were down 21 to 10 as the first half was coming to an end. They could have walked away with 3 points by taking a very short field goal attempt. That would have brought the score to 21 to 13, with the Spartans getting the ball at the start of the second half. Instead of taking a sure field goal, however, Dantonio opted for a fake field that Notre Dame and everyone else in the stadium could see coming. Needless to say, the fake failed, and the Spartans left precious points on the table. The Spartans probably would have still lost the game, but taking every point they could get would have maximized their probability of winning.

The coaches almost made the same mistake against Boise. Instead of taking 3 points to end the half, they went for a long touchdown pass that was intercepted. It just didn't make sense. Maxwell was clearly struggling, and the opportunity was there to tie the game. In the second half, the Spartans were having success moving the ball with the standard "pound Green, pound" approach. Suddenly, Roushar calls a reverse that gets stuffed for a huge loss and that kills the drive. The Spartans won that game because they finally stopped screwing around in the fourth quarter.

Folks, this Saturday is shaping up to be another Tressel Ball game. While I expect the Spartan D to keep Notre Dame's scoring low, the Spartan O will probably struggle to score points. So the Spartan coaches need to take the field goals when they can, and leave the fakes for another day. They also need to be trying to win the field-position battles. That means: don't take unnecessary risks when you're actually having some success driving the ball down the field, and most importantly of all don't kick/punt the ball to George Atkinson III. It really breaks my heart when the defense plays so well and yet the opposing team is scoring points because of poor field position, pick-sixes, and poor special teams plays.

So here's the bottom line. A Tressel Ball game actually favors the Spartans. MSU's defense will be stout enough to keep Notre Dame's offense from scoring more than 10 points. And MSU has enough offensive firepower to put up 17 points against Notre Dame's defense -- even if they just play a boring "pound Green pound" strategy. MSU should win this game, as long as the coaches stick to Tressel Ball.

How Much Longer Will Dantonio Coach and Who Might Eventually Replace Him?

Let me preface this post by saying that I hope that 10 years from now it is beyond clear that this post was foolishly premature.  I hope beyond hope that Mark Dantonio is still going strong in 2022.  But ever since Dantonio suffered a heart attack two years ago, I have been haphazardly wondering about (a) how much longer he might coach, and (b) who might eventually become MSU's next coach.  Here are some thoughts on those issues.

If someone put a gun to my head and demanded my best guess on how much longer Mark Dantonio will end up serving as MSU's head football coach, I would nervously hypothesize that he will be here another 5 years - which would give him a total of about 10 years.  I would reason that Dantonio's contract runs another 5 years, and he has been guaranteed a position in the athletic department for 2 years, after he retires.  And while his contract can be easily extended, Dantonio is already 56 years old and of course he has health concerns.  He might extend his contract for another 2 to 3 years, but probably not much beyond that.  In the end, I expect that Mark Dantonio will not be one of those coaches that stays on for decades, and that actually might turn out to be a good thing for the program.  How often have we seen great coaches undermine what they have built by staying on too long?

That's why I appreciate what Barry Alvarez did in Wisconsin.  Alvarez built up a solid program over 16 years and then walked away when he was still doing quite well (Wisconsin went 10-3 in his final season).  Alvarez passed the baton to Brett Bielema, who was then able to take Wisconsin to the next level.  I think that that's the kind of coaching transition programs should aspire for, and I think MSU is headed for that kind of transition.

Of course, the other critical component of a successful transition is finding the right replacement.  Apparently, that's not such an easy thing to do.  How many times have we seen successful programs collapse and or stagnate as soon as they lose their star coach?  (MSU after Nick Saban, Notre Dame after Lou Holtz, Nebraska after Tom Ozborne, etc.)  Since it's such a challenging task, we might as well start thinking about this topic now.

So who has the capacity to at least keep MSU where Dantonio has brought it?  One rule to start with is that the program should probably stay away from outsiders who would need to make significant changes to the program. Michigan's experiment with Rich Rodriguez showed us what can happen with that.  I actually think Rodriguez is a pretty good coach, so the fact that he struggled convinces me that MSU should not ever attempt such a transition.  MSU has a pro-style program, they are winning with a pros-style program, and they can absolutely find replacements that can win with a pro-style program.

The next rule I would suggest is giving guys from the Dantonio coaching tree the first look.  Hiring one of Dantonio's guys would ensure that the system that has brought so much success will largely be kept in place.  Perhaps the best positioned of Dantonio's guys are going to be those with head coaching experience.  And there's only 3 of them: Dan Enos, Don Treadwell, and Pat Narduzi (who will likely become a head coach next year).  Let's just go ahead and scratch off Enos, who may not even survive at Central Michigan after this year.

That leaves us Treadwell and Narduzi.  Treadwell is my current favorite at this point, mainly because I liked how well he performed when he took over the program, when Dantonio had his heart attack.  Treadwell also has a year of coaching experience at U of Miami (Ohio), where he we went 4-8 in his first season.  He will need to improve his record rapidly, considering that Miami actually went 10-4 the year before he arrived.  Unfortunately, if he becomes too successful at Miami, it's very likely that other big programs will come calling and he'll be unavailable at the time Dantonio retires.  So that's where Treadwell stands.  He needs to prove himself, but if he does, the timing could be bad.

Narduzi will likely be in a similar situation.  If he leaves next year to become a head coach somewhere, he'll have to show that he can be the top guy at just the right time.  The right time would be about 4 or 5 years from now.  That's more likely to happen if he ends up a program that needs quite a bit of work.  A more established program might allow him to succeed too quickly.

Apart from Treadwell and Narduzi, I could see MSU offering the job to whoever happens to be the offensive or defensive coordinator at the time Dantonio retires. Could current offensive coordinator Dan Roushar still be around at that time?  I wasn't completely impressed with Roushar's performance last year, but then again, it was his first year as OC.  We'll see how he does this year.

My gut tells me that whoever takes over as defensive coordinator when Narduzi leaves may actually end up being in the right place at the right time.  That individual will likely be in that position for the next few years, right up until Dantonio approaches retirement.  That individual will also have been in the program for close to 10 years.  Who might that be?  I suspect that, since Dantonio likes to promote guys from within, it will be Mike Tressel, who is currently the linebackers and special teams coach.  He seems to have done a pretty good job in those areas, so I suspect he'll be the next defensive coordinator.

Of course, since we're talking about things that could happen at least 5 years into the future, this topic can only be considered speculation.  Nonetheless, it's not too early to start thinking about these things.  This is one of those posts that you jot up and then revise a few times over the next few years.

Thoughts on Depth Chart

Of course, the depth chart came out last week.  Many things have already been written about it, so I'll keep my thoughts short.  Here are some things that stood out to me:

- Tyler Hoover got bigger!  He is now listed as weighing 310, which I think is at least 20 pounds heavier than he was for the Spring game.  I'm excited to see if Hoover and Kittredge will be an improvement over last year's defensive tackles: Pickelman and Strayhorn.

- Keith Mumphery is listed as a starter at receiver.  At the end of last year I thought Bennie Fowler and Tony Lippett would have the first crack at starting.  

- Andre Sims is "tied" with DeAnthony Arnett.  Sims could turn out to be one of those diamonds in the rough.  He was the only receiver at the Spring game that was consistently getting open, and he caught just about everything thrown his way.

- Skyler Burkland is a backup.  Burkland could still be recovering from his leg injury or France and Fonoti could just be very good.  We'll see if he can crack the starting lineup in camp.  In any case, the OT position looks good for the Spartans.

- Taiwan Jones received a lot of hype last year, but he is now listed as third for STAR linebacker, behind Chris Norman and Darrien Harris.  I'm hoping that's because Harris is so good, rather than because Jones regressed.  Could Harris be another one of Dantonio's great finds?

- Will the arrival of the true freshmen change the depth chart?  On defense, I suspect the answer is no.  The Spartans are way too deep on D.  Maybe the highly rated safety, Demetrious Cox, will have a shot as the season progresses.  On offense, as Dantonio has mentioned, the freshmen receivers and tight ends will have a good shot at earning some playing time.  I would put my money on Aaron Burbridge and Jamare Mills.  I also wouldn't be surprised if some of the speedsters (guys like MacGarrett Kings and Nick Tompkins) got to run some plays to the outside of the tackles.  I think offensive coordinator Dan Roushar has a preference for running to the outside.  That preference actually cost them the Nebraska game, in my opinion, because MSU didn't quite have the speed to run outside the tackles against Nebraska (particularly against their outside linebacker Levonte David).  Kings and Tompkins may actually have the speed to successfully run to the outside against speedier defenses and thus I wouldn't be surprised if the coaches decided not to redshirt them.  

A Look at Next Year: Coaches

The final unit I want to look at in the “look at next year” series is the “coaching unit.”  Now that defensive coordinator Pat Narduzzi is coming back, the likelihood that there will be changes in next year’s coaching staff are minimal.  In fact, the staff we had this year is pretty much the staff we’ll have next year.  Here’s the list of coaches:

Mark Dantonio - Head Coach

Pat Narduzzi - Defensive Coordinator

Dan Roushar - Offensive Coordinator

Harlon Barnett - Secondary

Ted Gill - Defensive Line

Brad Salem - Running Backs/Recruiting Coordinator

Terrence Samuel - Wide Receivers

Mark Staten - Offensive Line

Mike Tressel - Linebackers/Special Teams

Dave Warner - Quarterbacks

Tim Allen - Director of Football Operations

Dino Folino - Director of Personnel/Player Development

Tommy Hoke - Assoc. Head Strength & Conditioning Coach

Brad Lunsford - Director of Executive Football Operations

Ken Mannie - Head Strength & Conditioning Coach

Archie Collins - Graduate Assistant / Defense

Randy Gillon - Speed Coach

Of course, the big guy is back; Mark Dantonio is returning for his 6th season as head coach.  As I’ve said many times before, and I’ll say it again, MSU is beyond fortunate to have found Dantonio.  He is an elite coach who is willing to stay in East Lansing to build an elite program, even while he could be making tons more money elsewhere.  I once thought of Dantonio as MSU’s Barry Alvarez: a guy that would come in and win 9 games a year and lay the foundations so that the next guy could take the program to really elite status.  Well, I was wrong, and I’ve never been so happy to be so wrong.  Dantonio is no transition figure; he IS the elite coach, the guy that could win a national championship at MSU. 

Honestly, I pinch myself twice a day and like SNL Bears fans I wonder: “why are we so blessed?”  Could it be the heart attack that he suffered last year altered his plans?  Perhaps he intended to leave, but the heart attack made him wonder if he might only be coaching for another 5 to 7 years.  Why go somewhere else, if you only have 7 years of coaching left?  Folks, I don’t know the answer to such questions.  All I can tell you is that I hope Dantonio stays and coaches for another 10 years (though I have a strong hunch that he will probably only coach for 5 more years), and I hope that if another school ever tries to pull him away with more money, that MSU will come through with a counter offer that keeps him here the remainder of his career. 

Apart from Dantonio, we also know that the coordinators will both be back.  Pat Narduzzi will be back to lead the defense and consequently I am expecting a big year for the defense.  Narduzzi has clearly has come a long way, going from a guy who just the year before didn’t garner much attention (if anything, he garnered a fair share of complaints) to a guy who is now reportedly being offered three quarters of a million dollars to leave MSU and who will probably become a head coach by the end of the next season.   Anyway, unless his success was somehow connected to the success of Jerel Worthy and Trenton Robinson (and I don’t think that’s the case), I expect Narduzzi to have a great year. 

As for the offense, Dan Roushar should be back and I think he should end up being pretty good.  He seemed to experience some growing pains this year, and it probably didn’t help that the o-line struggled so much in the first half of the season.  The one issue that concerned me about Roushar was his inability to adapt to fast defenses.  Long after it became clear to a football novice like me that the Spartans would not be able to run outside the tackles on teams like Nebraska and Georgia, Roushar stuck stubbornly with runs to the outside.  He did seem to finally adapt in the second half of the Georgia game, but I wonder if Dantonio had something to do with that.  Anyway, if he can get over issues like that, and if the passing game doesn’t implode (considering that the Spartans are losing 90% of their passing game), Roushar should be pretty good next year.  He showed a lot of development and creativity throughout the season, especially in the B1G championship game. 

I won’t pretend to know much about the rest of the coaches, but I do want to single out two guys who seem to be doing an excellent job: Mike Tressel and Ken Mannie.  Mike Tressel is the linebackers and special teams coach, and while the special teams did pretty well this year, I’m most impressed with the development and play of the linebackers.  The linebacking unit was supposed to be decimated, losing All-American Greg Jones and veteran Eric Gordon.  But if anything, this year’s unit played at least as well and perhaps better.  I think it shows that Tressel is a pretty competent guy, and that might put him next in line to take over at defensive coordinator when Narduzzi leaves.

Ken Mannie is the head strength and conditioning coach and I think he’s a big part of why the Spartans are able to take so many low-rated recruits and turn them into NFL-level players.  Apparently, many other coaches have recognized Mannie’s talents.  Guys like Nick Saban and Jim Tressel tried to get Mannie to join their programs, but he has thankfully remained faithful to the Spartans. 

So that’s a quick summary of the coaching situation for next year.  We have continuity, and best of all, it is good continuity.  We’re not sitting here saying to ourselves, “gosh, I wish we could find someone else to take over that position.”  On the contrary, we are excited and thankful that everyone is coming back.

On Narduzzi

Sheesh, there's too much to write about this week.  I didn't want to write anything about the possibility of Narduzzi leaving until he actually left or stayed.  Anyway, he's staying and that's a good thing.  I don't think it would have been the end of the world if he left, but as we found out when Roushar took over for Treadwell, there are growing pains associated with replacing experienced assistant coaches.  I wouldn't want to go through those growing pains at the same time that they are losing two of their best defensive players: Jerel Worthy and Trenton Robinson.  The Spartans would have likely found an adequate replacement for Narduzzi, but the Nard-dawg has a chance to take next year's defense to even more elite heights.  It would be more comfortable for MSU if he left in 2013, the year I expect MSU's talent to be peaking.  In the meantime, Dantonio may want to get a guy like Mike Tressel (is he next in line?) more involved on defense, so that the transition to a new coordinator becomes as smooth as possible.

Let's Appreciate What We Have

The Big Ten Championship Game (BTCG) was a blow to the stomach, but ladies and gentlemen, let's clear our minds for a moment to appreciate what a great season this has been and how lucky we are as Spartan fans.  The Spartan players and coaches had their ups and downs this season, but in the end, the body of work they delivered for our pleasure was remarkable.  We don't have a perfect program (who does?), but we do have a program that has achieved heights not seen in East Lansing, in many, many years. 

Let me start with the coaches.  Spartan nation, we are blessed.  Mark Dantonio is truly an elite coach.  In just 5 years, he has taken a program that could not even win 50% of its games and turned it into a program that now consistently contends for the Big Ten title.  And folks, this is just the start.  I am convinced that he will take MSU to the point where we are consistently able to compete for national championships.  As for the coordinators, I had my share of complaints with their play calling throughout the year, but at the end of the regular season I can honestly say that Pat Narduzzi and Dan Roushar exceeded expectations.  I felt like they called a masterful game in the BTCG.  I hope to see both of them back next year.

As for the players, I hate to single out any of them for praise because this whole team deserves to be celebrated.  But since I don't have time to write about all of them (perhaps in a few months I will), I will mention a few that stood out in the BTCG and who will be leaving or are likely to be leaving after this year.  I will also mention Le'Veon Bell because he just stood out too much.   

Kirk Cousins -- learned so much throughout the year and learned to stay cool under pressure.  In the Notre Dame game I thought he was exposed as a quarterback that was too nervous to be really good.  But in the BTCG he really looked like an NFL quarterback.  He showed great poise and accuracy.  In one of my first posts I predicted that he would become a first-round talent.  His performance in the BTCG made me believe that he still could do that.  I expect him to impress the scouts at the NFL combines.

B.J. Cunningham -- played like a wide receiver that will be taken in the first 3 rounds all year long.  In the BTCG he played his best, perhaps 2nd round good.

Keyshawn Martin -- was inconsistent most of the year, but in the BTCG he looked like a 2nd round talent.

Jerel Worthy -- led by example in the BTCG and looked every bit like a player that deserves to be taken in the top 15 of the NFL draft.

Trenton Robinson -- made big hit after big hit in the BTCG.  He may not go in the first 3 rounds but I think he will be drafted.

Le'Veon Bell -- have you ever seen anyone run with as much heart and power as Bell ran with in the BTCG?  This guy is a superstar in the making.  MSU's O-line will improve next year and Bell will become a household name next year.

In the future, I will write a post about guys that are coming back next year and what next year will look like for the Spartans.  For now, let's just appreciate the great talents that have donned the Spartan uniform.  And let's appreciate that none of these guys was a rated particularly high by any recruiting sites.  Appreciate that MSU does a great job of discovering and developing talent.