Preview of Iowa Game

So it's safe to say that the last two weeks have been at least a little humbling for me.  After three impressive victories in a row -- over Ohio State, Michigan, and Wisconsin -- I was ready to declare that the MSU football program had achieved elite status.  I was ready to say that MSU could now be expected to compete for the national championship, year after year.  And I was ready to see elite recruits rush through the gates of Spartan Stadium.  Well, the blow-out at the hands of Nebraska and the near disaster against Minnesota have forced me to embark on a deep psychological journey.  A little like this one:

What I have concluded is that the Spartans are no longer the same team that looked so impressive against Ohio State and Michigan.  Those Spartans were flying around the field like hawks and they made you feel no doubt that they would win those games.  Against Wisconsin, things got shaky, but they still beat a very tough opponent.  But in the Nebraska and Minnesota games I saw a completely different Spartan team.  They looked uninterested, lacked swagger, and (dare I say?) they reminded me of the Spartans under J.L. Smith.

How did that happen?  The most likely explanation is the brutality of the Spartans' schedule.  Nebraska was just one tough game too many.  It's hard to get pumped up four weeks in a row.  It's hard for coaches to scheme for four tough opponents in a row.  This latter point is probably the most important.  The coaches looked outclassed the last two weeks.   

Whatever the explanation, the Spartans must overcome their troubles this week.  This week they play a tough Iowa team that is unbeaten at home in a game that could determine who wins the Legends division.  

Iowa has more than enough defense to stop the struggling Spartan offense.  Iowa's defense is ranked 36th in the nation.  They have decent linebackers and defensive line.  But I'm most worried about their physical corners.  If Iowa's coaches have scouted the Nebraska v MSU game, they know that they can shut down the Spartan receivers by pressing them at the line of scrimmage.   Hopefully, the refs won't let them get away with pass interference, but more importantly, I hope the Spartan coaches have a plan for dealing with this strategy.

MSU's defense actually should match up well against Iowa's offense.  Iowa's offense is ranked 41st in the country.  They have good receivers, tight ends, and the powerful Marcus Coker at running back.  But MSU has the athletes to shut down all facets of Iowa's offense.  MSU's corners can keep up with Iowa's receivers and MSU's D-line should be able to considerably slow down Coker.

In general, MSU has the athletes to beat Iowa.  And so, the key for me is coaching.  Kirk Ferentz has shown that he is a very good schemer.  Iowa has an effective passing game thanks in large part to their creative use of their tight ends.  And why is it that Iowa always has a good running back, no matter how many of them get injured?  I have seen enough of Iowa, now, to know that this must have something to do with their coaching. 

Ferentz has beaten MSU three of the last four years.  Meanwhile, MSU's offensive coordinator is struggling and Nebraska and Minnesota showed teams that MSU's defense is not so dominant.  And so, I hate to say it, but unless MSU's coaching staff has something up their sleave, I just can't see the Spartans pulling this one out.  Iowa has looked bad on the road, but at home they seem to be a relatively dominant team.  So for the first time this season, I'm actually going to predict against MSU. 

Final prediction: MSU 17  Iowa 27 

All I'm asking for is that the Spartans don't embarrass themselves in Kinnick Stadium.  As long as they remain competitive throughout the game, I won't be too disappointed.  But if they get blown out, then it shows the Spartans have not progressed all that much since last year.  It could show that the Spartans have kind of hit their ceiling under Dantonio.  At that point, I guess I may have to go back to thinking that Dantonio really is the Barry Alvarez of MSU.