Preview of Michigan Game

Ahahalrighty then, we've come to it at last. Folks, I'll just come out and say it. MSU is the more complete team and can only lose due to a freak occurrence (like Devin Gardner having the game of his life) or a poor game plan.

Defense

Michigan has an explosive, but inconsistent offense. They're putting up 44 points a game, including over 700 yards of offense against Indiana's poor defense. The good thing is that MSU's defense matches up quite well against UM's offense.

To start with, UM has a weaker running game that the Spartans should be able to stop, even without stacking the box. UM's strength is it's passing game, but it is excessively dependent on 2 good receivers: Gallon and Funchess. Obviously, one of the keys to this game is how well the MSU secondary shuts down those two. Gallon's strength is his ability to keep moving. He takes advantage of Devin Gardner's ability to extend plays. The Spartan secondary is going to have keep on him for longer than they may be used to covering other receivers. Funchess' strength is obviously his height. He is not particularly explosive, but he can win a lot of jump balls.

The other danger is Devin Gardner's mobility. MSU has experience containing running quarterbacks, but Gardner is particularly dangerous because he combines excellent mobility with some decent throwing ability. Gardner has struggled with turnovers this year, but he has put it all together in a couple of games this year. He looked nearly unstoppable against Notre Dame. Obviously, MSU has to hope that Gardner doesn't put it all together for this Saturday. Even if he does, MSU should be able to slow him down quite a bit, but UM would probably get around 25 points. Then it would be up to the offense to keep up.

As we've seen, the MSU defense usually figures out opposing offenses by the second half of the game and then completely shuts them down. I'm hoping to see the same this week, but I suspect UM will have a little more success in the second half than previous teams.

Offense

The MSU offense has also been inconsistent but has more to work with than UM's offense. In particular, MSU has the best o-line I can recall and some above average running backs that are on the brink of stardom. MSU also has more depth at receiver, and emerging tight ends.

But like UM, the Spartan offense is heavily influenced by their quarterback. Connor Cook, has looked both excellent and downright shabby. If he plays like he did against Illinois, MSU will win this game regardless of what Gardner does. If Cook plays like he did against Purdue, MSU will lose regardless of how well their defense plays.

UM's defense is not statistically great this year, but they will still be one of the better defenses MSU has faced this year. Cook and the offense have done well against better defenses, like Iowa's, but they could also struggle if Cook's accuracy issues return, or if the receivers start dropping balls again.

Special teams

Last year, the special teams favored UM. They hit all their field goals, and MSU missed key opportunities. This year, I hope to at least see MSU's special teams neutralize UM's special teams. Ideally, MSU's STs will outplay the UM STs.

Coaches

MSU is the more talented team, so it's mostly up to the coaches to win this game. I will only excuse the coaches if Cook struggles mightily, or if Gardner has a freak performance. Otherwise, MSU really should win this game. I don't want to see MSU losing this game because of an inferior game plan or poor coaching decisions.

Upshot

As I said, the Spartans should win this game, barring a freak occurrence (like Cook absolutely flopping, Gardner going nuts, or multiple fumbles at inopportune times). MSU is more talented all around, has fewer holes in terms of talent, and is playing at home.

I'll say that Gardner will play well, but the defense will slow him down. Cook and the MSU offense will also play pretty well and score just enough points to win this one by a touchdown.

Final score: MSU 28  UM 21