Preview of Rose Bowl: Looking Like a Toss-up

Finally getting a chance to think about the Rose Bowl a bit and my initial thought is that this will be MSU's toughest game of the season. OSU was clearly an outstanding opponent, but I actually felt relatively confident about that game. The game actually broke down about how I expected: the Spartans held Ohio State to the 24 points I felt they needed to hold them to, and the offense was actually able to score above the 30 points I felt they would need.

I don't get a similar sense about Stanford. The weak simulations that run through my head keep suggesting a toss-up. This game basically looks set to go either way, which means it is likely to be settled by things like turnovers and critical mistakes.

Stanford has been shutting down explosive offenses most of this season, so we could expect that the Spartans will struggle to score above 20 points. On the other hand, Stanford's defense doesn't seem so dominant against more physical offenses. Their two losses came against Utah and USC, the 2 most physical teams on their schedule. But even those offenses didn't score a lot of points. So, I expect "pound Green pound" to have some success, but I would be very surprised if MSU can score more than 27 points. And MSU won't get to 27 if Cook and the receivers have an off game. The offense will have to be firing on all cylinders.

Then it will be up to the defense to contain Stanford's very physical offense. Stanford's offense looks a lot like Wisconsin's offenses under Brett Bielema. They have a huge o-line and they are able to run the ball very effectively, and they put up a lot of points. Thankfully, they don't have Russell Wilson to make their passing game elite, so they are relatively unbalanced as an offense, running the ball 548 times versus passing it 293 times. That means MSU will be able to stack the box a little more frequently than they could against Russell Wilson. But careful, Kevin Hogan is a pretty good quarterback, with numbers eerily similar to Cook's.

MSU has the advantage that it has played against Wisconsin under Bielema, and won. But we all saw what happened in those games. Most of them turned into shootouts. And they were toss-ups.
Folks, that's what this Rose Bowl is reminding me of: the battles against Wisconsin. The good thing is that I always felt that MSU had a good chance to win those games, but the bad thing is that I could also see MSU losing those games. Well, I suppose that's what toss-ups should make you feel like.

So it will ultimately come down to critical mistakes. Who will make less of them? That means protecting the ball on offense and special teams. Stanford is a well-coached team, so don't expect them to make many mistakes. MSU will have to match them in that area, and then hope for something to break their way. And as a Spartan slappy, I expect that break to happen.

Final score: MSU 27  Stanford 24