Folks, here we are. The Spartans are mere days away from playing Wisconsin for the Big Ten Championship. It feels surreal in a way. Did I honestly expect the Spartans to do this well, to get this far? OK, in one of my very first posts on this blog I offered a very optimistic look at the Spartans' chances for a national championship. I basically predicted they would win every game, including the Big Ten Championship game, and they would head off to compete for that national championship. But that post was clearly a little tongue-in-cheek -- OK, a lot tongue-in-cheek -- I mean, as a Spartan slappy I expected the Spartans to do well this season, but even I didn't expect things to go as well as they did. If someone had put a gun to my head and asked to give a realistic prediction of the Spartans' record, I would have said something more like 9-3, and maybe if my life really depended on it I would have said 8-4. But the Big Ten turned out to be weaker than expected and the Spartans stronger than expected.
So here we are, taking on the team that was supposed to be the best in the Big Ten, a team loaded with 2 offensive superstars (Russell Wilson and Montee Ball), a team that is supposed to get its revenge on the Spartans. Few are giving the Spartans a chance, but here comes my slappy self ready to say that, folks, the Spartans will win this game. Actually, if you held a gun to my head I would say that the 2 teams are nearly evenly matched and that if these guys played a hundred times MSU would win 51 of them and Wisconsin would win 49 of them. I mean, just look at this nice statistical summary by A Beautiful Day for Football that shows you how evenly these two teams are matched.
And then if you still kept the gun to my head and asked if that's my final answer, I would say:
"no, wait! The Spartans are getting Will Gholston for this game. He was suspended the first time these two teams met because he got too physical against Michigan. This guy is a game changer, and maybe he'll come out really motivated because he wasn't able to play in that first game. Gholston has to be worth a few wins, so let me change my answer and say that if these two teams played 100 times, MSU would win 57 of them."And then if you still kept the gun to my head and asked if that's my final answer, I would say:
"no, wait! The Spartan O-line must have improved since the first time these two teams met, more so than any other unit on both teams. That is to say, Wisconsin can't possibly have a unit that has improved as much as our O-line has. That has to count for something. So if these two teams played 100 times, MSU would win 60 of them."And then if you still kept the gun to my head and asked if that's my final answer, I would say:
"no, wait a minute! Since their first meeting, has one coaching staff improved significantly more than the other? You would have to say that MSU's actually has because they were breaking in a new offensive coordinator this year who at times looked like he was in way over his head. And yet, they were able to defeat Wisconsin, and since that game, Dan Roushar has actually gotten much better. That has to count for a few games, so that makes me say that if these two teams played 100 times, MSU would win 63 of them."And then if you still kept the gun to my head and asked if that's my final answer, I would say:
"yes, that's my final answer, because all other factors will affect both teams to about the same degree. Both teams will be on the road. Both teams have many players that are playing really well at this point. Both teams seem to have recovered from most major injuries. So, yes, that's my final answer. Michigan State is in a position to win almost 2 out every 3 meetings with Wisconsin."And then if you still kept the gun to my head and asked for a final score prediction, I would say:
"Wisconsin will get its points, but the Spartan defense will slow them down. The Spartans will also get their points, but they too will be slowed down by Wisconsin's solid D. In the end, however, the Spartans just score a little more: MSU 31 Wisconsin 27
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