Preview of Outback Bowl: MSU vs Georgia

We are now mere days away from seeing the Spartans play the Georgia Bulldogs in the Outback Bowl, and I can hardly wait.  This should be one of the most exciting bowl games of the season.  We're looking at two teams that are pretty evenly matched, and we're looking at two talented and well-coached teams.

Offensively, these teams are pretty even.  Georgia is ranked 32nd in term of total offense, averaging 32.2 points per game.  MSU is ranked 38th in the country, averaging 30.8 points per game.  Georgia is also ranked 32nd in the country in rushing offense, averaging 172.7 yards per game; while MSU is ranked 65th in the country, averaging 142.9 yards per game.  Georgia is ranked 35th in the country in passing, averaging 241.2 yards per game; while MSU is ranked 33rd in the country in passing, averaging 247.5 yards per game.

Defensively, these teams are also pretty even.  Georgia has the country's 17th ranked defense, while MSU has the 9th ranked defense.  Georgia's run defense is ranked 17th, allowing 103.4 yards per game; while MSU's run defense is ranked 18th, allowing 104.3 yards per game.  Georgia's passing defense is ranked 11th, allowing 165.1 yards per game; while MSU's passing defense is ranked 14th, allowing 168.4 yards per game.

Of course, these rankings don't tell the whole story.  These teams are playing in different conferences, so perhaps their stats cannot be validly compared.  MSU fans also know that over the last 5 games, MSU's running game and total offense have vastly improved.  Indeed, MSU put up 39 points on Wisconsin (which has one of the top defenses in the country) in the B1G championship game.  MSU fans also know that the Spartans' defensive numbers would look better if MSU had not played Wisconsin's top 4 offense twice this season.  On the other hand, surely there are things Georgia fans know that I don't know.  Surely they've seen their team play better than the way they played against LSU -- the one game I saw Georgia play this year.

So what's the takeaway?  Basically, it is that: it's hard to predict the outcome of this game.  In fact, I can't do much more than go with gut instincts on this one  -- there's just too much uncertainty.  If MSU was playing any Big Ten team this week, I would actually say the probabilities are clearly on the Spartans' side.  But Georgia is a top-tier SEC team that could be better than any Big Ten team, or at least it is no worse than the Big Ten's top 2 teams.  In fact, this game really should tell us a lot about where the Spartans are as a program.  If MSU can beat Georgia, I think that it will be a very good indication that MSU has become a top 10 program.  If MSU loses it's fifth bowl game in a row, it clearly shows that MSU has a lot farther to go than I thought.

So what do my guts say?  Well, they say that MSU is an excellent team that can compete with the best of the SEC teams -- save perhaps Alabama and LSU.  I think MSU has the advantage at key positions (particularly quarterback) and thus will win this game -- but it will be a thriller, not unlike the B1G championship.

Final prediction: MSU 37  Georgia 34