Jim Tressel

       Of course, the big story is that Jim Tressel has resigned.  Coverage of the story is intense so I won't add much to that story except to reflect on how it might affect MSU.  Most importantly, there is the potential that Ohio State may try to hire Mark Dantonio.  Dantonio is a high quality candidate with connections to OSU, so it is more than reasonable to fear that Dantonio could bolt for OSU.  On the other hand, Dantonio suffered a heart attack last year.  Heart problems will likely shorten the length of his career, in fact, I would not be surprised to see Dantonio coach for only another 5 years, or so.  That kind of time constraint may deter OSU from pursuing him and it might discourage Dantonio from starting over in Columbus.  It's the kind of time frame that would still allow him to establish something special at MSU but perhaps not at OSU.  Ultimately, I believe the probabilities of Dantonio leaving are low, but that doesn't mean they don't exist. 
      Tressel's departure may also improve MSU's recruiting.  The extent to which MSU recruiting will benefit depends upon the punishments imposed by the NCAA.  If the punishments are severe enough that many future recruits are not willing to attend OSU, then it means more quality players in the pool (particularly the Midwestern pool) of players that MSU competes for.  I wouldn't expect that such an outcome would allow MSU to get commitments from half a dozen would-be OSU recruits.  It would likely mean that MSU picks up one or two recruits it might otherwise not pick up.  Would this result make a significant difference on the field?  It could.

Not Supposed to Count Your Chickens . . . But Let's do so Anyway

Against all sane advice, let's map out the most optimistic scenario for the Spartans' 2011 season: 

Sept. 2 Youngstown State--Probability of victory is high, but of course, there are no guarantees.
Sept. 10 Florida Atlantic--Probability of victory is high.
Sept. 17 at Notre Dame--If this was last year's Notre Dame team, I would say MSU should easily win this one.  But this year's Notre Dame is in its second year under Brian Kelly, and that makes me a little nervous about this one.  I have a horrible feeling that this is the year Brian Kelly gets ND close to contending for a BCS bowl.  At any rate, let me take a stab at a prediction.  In the end, I think MSU, in Mark Dantonio's 5th year, is still slightly ahead of ND in its development and should be able to pull out a tough victory in South Bend.
Sept. 24 Central Michigan--Probability of victory is high, but this is a rivalry so there is some danger.
Oct. 1 at Ohio State--OSU is infamously down 5 players and its head coach, so that should give MSU a good opportunity to steal one in Columbus.  Though OSU is weakened, it won't be easy--I repeat, it won't be easy.  In fact, OSU may be more focused than it otherwise would be.  Still, MSU has the talent to pull off another tough win.
Oct. 15 Michigan--UM will be better this year than it was last year, but MSU if farther along in its development.  The probabilities are with the Spartans on this one. 
Oct. 22 Wisconsin--UW struggles against MSU when the they play in East Lansing.  Moreover, UW lost more key players than MSU.  I anticipate another great battle, but one in which MSU should prevail.
Oct. 29 at Nebraska--There is no doubt that UN has a tough defense.  But for several years now it has not been able to solve its problems on offense.  This should turn out to be a defensive battle, and I'm hoping MSU's explosive offense can generate a few big plays that allow them to pull this one out.  This is a toss up for me that depends on how good Taylor Martinez is playing, or how healthy he is.  I will go out on a limb and predict that Martinez is not  healthy at this point (mainly because he runs so often), and for this reason alone MSU pulls out another tough one.
Nov. 5 Minnesota--MSU really should win this one, but they may be at risk here because they may view this game as an opportunity to relax.  Probabilities are good on this one, but MSU must not beat themselves.
Nov. 12 at Iowa--MSU always struggles against Iowa and for me, this is one of the more important games of the season.  Mark Dantonio has to show that he can beat Iowa.  A loss this year could consolidate a trend that will be hard to break.  Having said that, if MSU is ever going to beat Iowa, it will be this year. 
Nov. 19 Indiana--This game is like the Minnesota game: one that MSU should win but could lose, if they let their guard down.  Let's hope the Spartans have the discipline to put away the games they should win, especially this close to the end of the season.
Nov. 26 at Northwestern--what a game to finish the season.  After battling their way to a perfect record MSU faces a team that could easily destroy their perfect season.  Let's just say the Spartans bring their A-game and pull out another tough one. 

So there it is.  The Spartans go unbeaten, win the first inaugural Big Ten Championship game, and head to the national championship game.  Next: an optimistic look at the performace of some key Spartans.

More on Why Not to Panic About Recruiting

OK, so now that we have generally established that it is too early to panic about recruiting, we can begin to address some specifics.  Of course, Michigan is out to a fast start in recruiting, but if we look at some particular positions we can see that there is still plenty of talent left, including some players that are higher ranked than some of the players committed to Michigan.  Consider the tight end position.  We can see at Scout that Michigan has verbal commitments from 2 of this year's top 15 tight ends.  Well, that's pretty good for them, but it also means that Michigan probably won't take anymore tight ends.  That increases the chances that the Spartans could now land one of the top 5 tight ends in the nation, Ron Thompson.  He does appear to favor Michigan, but it will be difficult for the Wolverines to take him at this point, unless they find, over the course of the year, that they have many more scholarships to offer than previously expected.  If Michigan does not come through, MSU could easily become of the favorites to receive a commitment from Thompson.  Of course, I'm not saying it's a sure thing, but the point is that there is a lot of talent left out there.  We'll just have to wait and see.

Recruting Controversy

       So the most recent and salient buzz is that UM is outrecruiting MSU in the state of Michigan.  Well, there is unfortunately no denying that.  We have clearly lost several head-to-head battles, and it appears we will lose a few more before the year is through.  It does appear that UM's new defensive coordinator, Greg Mattison, is a particularly strong magnet for defensive talent.  So I think we will struggle to win head-to-head battles for defensive recruits.
       Having said that, I would say that it's too early to know if UM has the edge on the offensive side of the ball, too; and I suspect that by the end of the season we will be holding our own on offense.  In general, it is too early in the process to panic, particularly when you consider that this is the deepest pool of talent the Midwest has produced in a long time, if not ever.  There's plenty of talent left.  In fact, the talent pool looks deep enough that even the lowest-tier B1G teams will likely have the opportunity to sign several quality players. 
       Moreover, as the year progresses, I suspect we will begin to draw our fair share of recruits.  Barring great misfortune, the Spartans are set to have their best season yet under Dantonio.  Of course, winning will help us on the recruiting trail, but perhaps more importantly, with respect to recruiting, MSU appears set to make a strong showing in next year's NFL draft.  Jerel Worthy is being mentioned as a top-10 prospect, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Kirk Cousins go in the first round, as well.  Could Edwin Baker also go in the first round, if he decides to come out early?  I'd hate to see him go early, but he does have the talent to be a first-rounder.  This kind of success in the draft could easily translate into success in recruiting.  And so, you won't find me worrying about recruting until January, 2012.

Maiden Post About Spartan Football

For a while now I've noticed that the UM community has an extensive network of blogs covering their football program and I've lamented that MSU's network of blogs is more limited, considerably more limited.  That's a shame considering the recent success of the program under Mark Dantonio.  My initial response to that problem was to wait patiently while a network of MSU football bloggers developed, but I've now decided that I have to do more than wait, I have to contribute, in my own infinitesimal way.  So thank you to any future readers and . . . here we go.