Saturday, September 21, 2013

Thoughts on the Notre Dame Game

This was a tough loss. Pretty painful to watch. Here's a few thoughts.

- This loss was made more painful by the fact that MSU looked more talented than Notre Dame. Well, they at least looked more athletic -- talent also involves being more accurate throwing the ball and catching the ball and hitting your field goal attempts. But Notre Dame clearly needed the help of the refs in this one.

- The offense just broke down too often. Too many inaccurate throws, too many inopportune drops, too many penalties.This offense is not good enough to overcome mistakes, or perhaps it's not good because it makes too many mistakes.

- Parts of the offense look good at times, but they can't put it all together. The receivers looked excellent at times, but then had key drops. The offensive line was pretty solid, but had a couple of key penalties and poor blocks. The running backs ran pretty well, but they did lose yards on several key plays. The quarterbacks may be the only ones that actually looked worse more often than they looked good.

- The defense is clearly elite, considering that even Notre Dame had to resort to a crazy strategy like just throwing deep every time. Too bad the refs rewarded ND for their offensive incompetence. Just a disgusting performance by the refs.

- The special teams is still a liability. What a problem to have alongside a struggling offense.

- The coaching was good on defense, OK on offense. But when I see teams like Iowa and Minnesota racking up points on offense, it makes me wonder about MSU's offensive coaches. At the very least, I can say that the coaches don't seem to learn much from one year to the next. How can you end up with the same outcome against Notre Dame for 3 straight years?

- Finally, I am stung by this loss, but I did see that MSU has what it takes to win their division and play in the B10 championship game. But the offense must get better every week. Last year, I saw signs MSU had what it took, only to watch the offense actually regress over the course of the season. So there is reason to be hopeful, and reason to worry. So next week I'll be watching for the offense to make progress. If it doesn't, then we are looking at a repeat of 2012.

Friday, September 20, 2013

Preview of Notre Dame Game

OK, so it's widely considered that this game will tell us quite a bit about this MSU team. This Notre Dame team is clearly not as good as the team they had last year, but Notre Dame always has top athletes, they usually play well in big games, and Brian Kelly is a pretty smart coach. So yeah, this game should tell us a lot about things like whether the offense really has turned the corner and whether the defense really is tops in the nation.

Obviously, it would be nice to discover that the game against YSU was a sign of good things to come, that the Spartans have finally developed an offense worthy of their defense. I'm not asking for MSU to put up 50 on Notre Dame, but if they can hang something like 24 points on them, then suddenly we can start dreaming big, Spartan nation. I'm talking championships, folks!

BUT, as delusional as I tend to be, even I know that it's more likely that YSU was more of a blip. We're talkin about one good offensive performance in the last 12 months. I gotta see more before I become a full member of this church.

In fact, the probabilities are likely pointing towards another offensive struggle. I do think the offense showed signs of progress, but the bottom line in this game is that they are now going up against a defense with a decent secondary and an above-average defensive line. That means the receivers will have a more difficult time getting open and the offensive line will have its hands full. Especially this year, MSU has not shown me much that would lead me to believe that it can respond to such challenges. Basically, when some part of the offense is struggling (especially the wide receivers), the offense tends to fall apart completely.

I hope I'm wrong, but I do expect major struggles. So my tempered hopes are that the offense will score at least 14 points. That's not confidence-inspiring, but if they can do so, MSU will have a great chance to win this game and it would be a decent sign that this team may be able to battle their way to a respectable season.

If Cook and the rest of the offense can't score more than 10 points, we can immediately return to the sense of foreboding we felt most of last season and after the first 2 games of this season. We could pretty much expect this season to go like last year.

Final score: I do think the defense will mostly shut down Notre Dame, but I also think our offense will be held to one touchdown. So I'll go with an ND win for this one, sad as it makes me to say that.

MSU 13  Notre Dame 16

Saturday, September 14, 2013

Thoughts on YSU Game

At long last! We haven't seen this kind of offensive productivity since the Spartans played CMU, roughly a year ago. Yes, it was against an FCS team, but I'll take it. Here are some other thoughts on the game.

- Cook is not as accurate as Maxwell, but his mobility makes him more effective. Obviously, he can make plays with his feet, but I think his mobility also allows him to look at riskier passes down the field. If you have the ability to scramble out of trouble, then you probably have more confidence to take risks with the passing game. I think that may in part explain why Cook tries more long passes than Maxwell.

- O'Connor did some good things, but it's clear he's behind Cook, and probably Maxwell.

- The receivers . . . what can I say? It's Christmas! They looked outstanding, and not just one or two of them, but several of them. The only concern I have is that they got the separation we've been looking for against an FCS team. We saw that this offense can be explosive when the receivers get separation and, basically, do what they're supposed to do. What if they can only perform like this against FCS opponents? If that's the case, the offense could easily regress again. I don't think that's the case, I do think the receivers have finally figured things out. But it's something to keep an eye on.

- MSU has tight ends! But even against this FCS team, they didn't do all that much. Still, Lyles looks like LT 2.0.

- The running backs continue to show some talent. We'll obviously get a much better sense of what we have there next week.

- The offensive line looked good, but not dominant. They gave the quarterbacks a lot of time to throw and opened up some holes for the running backs. On the other hand, this was an FCS team, and they didn't create as many holes as I was hoping to see.

- MSU's defensive talent overwhelmed YSU's offense, so it's hard to say much new about the D. This is the first game, though, where I have started to worry that Calhoun might leave early for the NFL. He's an outstanding talent that will get attention from NFL scouts.

- The special teams looked shaky again. That has to be resolved soon.

- The coaches seemed to do better today. The play calling was sensible, and appropriately bold in some cases. They also are giving some younger guys a chance to make plays, and the young guys have responded well (see Shelton and Kings).

Upshot: let's not get too excited, yet. I do think this team has turned the corner on offense, but it is also quite possible that the struggles could return against teams with better secondaries. I also think the offensive line is not quite where it needs to be. I hope I'm wrong, but unless the o-line makes significant progress by next week, they still look like they will struggle quite a bit against Notre Dame.

Friday, September 13, 2013

Preview of YSU Game

Some things I hope to see / not see:

- The Spartans need to settle on a quarterback (perhaps 2 quarterbacks) by the end of this game. So Connor Cook has to show that he is progressing. To me, he did not look like he improved much from week 1 to week 2. If he is going to continue to get opportunities, he has to start showing that he's making significant progress. His biggest problem right now is accuracy. He is creating well enough with his feet, but then missing wide open receivers. That lack of accuracy is costing the offense in terms of explosive plays, and is forcing the Spartans to go on drives that require them to execute a lot of plays -- not a good situation when your offense is struggling.

- So far, I've been impressed with the performances of Jeremy Langford and Nick Hill. I think they have the talent to be ranked among the B10's best backs -- if they could get more support from the rest of the offense.  In this game, I hope to see that I'm right about that, so I hope to see them continue to make significant progress, and I hope that at least the offensive line shows a little more life. I've been disappointed with Riley Bullough, up to this point. Perhaps he hasn't received enough opportunities, but I'm hoping to see more out of him this week.

- What can I say about the receivers? Hoping that they emerge is like hoping every day was Christmas. If they're not going to run good routes or catch the ball, I hope they at least show improvement in blocking.

- The offensive line has to start playing better. At least the o-line has more talent and experience than last year, but they are taking far too long gel. If they look lost again this week, be prepared to feel embarrassed during the Notre Dame game.

- The special teams unit needs to show that last week was a fluke. If not, if they make critical mistakes again, then we are looking at almost an exact replica of last season, where the defense was really the only competent unit on this team.

- Throughout the rest of the season, I'm going to keep an eye out for offensive coordinators that MSU should try to poach for next year. YSU put up 718 yards of offense last week, so they may have an OC the Spartans should keep an eye on. But YSU was playing a weak team last week, so we'll have to see what their OC can do against MSU's defense. If YSU's offense scores at least 3 touchdowns, then that's our guy!

Final Score: MSU 24  YSU 14

Saturday, September 7, 2013

What I Would Do, If I was Playing a Video Game

Folks, I'm no coach, but I'm pretty good at video games, particularly at winning with weak teams. When I play sports games, I like to challenge myself by playing with weak teams, and I've learned that if you stick to it long enough, you can beat the computer with those teams, even at the most difficult setting. The key thing you learn from doing this is that even weak teams can find things that work. Of course, the nice thing for MSU is that the defense is elite. So the coaches aren't working with absolutely nothing. 

So what does this desperate idea of mine tell us about what MSU should do the rest of this season? First of all, it tells us that it is probably time to stop the extreme experimentation. There's probably not much need to keep trying quarterbacks -- unless Terry is really ready, which I really really doubt. At this point, it's time to accept that MSU's best chance to win will likely involve a combination of Maxwell and Cook. 

It's time to find out what plays you can consistently execute with those guys and it's time to start building whatever momentum you can with what you have. These guys are not going to get you 35 points a game, but as we saw in the TCU game, these guys are good enough to take MSU to victory against pretty good teams. Basically, MSU should be preparing for the rest of their games this season with a mind to replicate their results against TCU: tough defense and barely enough offense. 

Next, it's time to figure out what the receivers can do. Can they run at least 5 plays correctly? Is it too late to teach them to block properly? If they're not going to get involved in the passing game, can they help more on the running game? Is it too late to teach them other little things like coming back to the football or catching the ball at its highest point? Can you get the tight ends catch at least 2 balls per game?

Next, it's time to figure out what the offensive line can do. If they can't pass-protect well, then you have to regard plays that require extensive pass-protection as very low-probability plays. Are they better at run-blocking to the right or to the left, or between the tackles? If you find they're decent at something, then you focus on that and add some tweaks.

This isn't the kind of plan that's going to get you a lot of points. But we're beyond that now, it's all about limiting the incredible damage this offense could cause to the program, until a new offensive staff can be brought in next year -- because that is the real solution. This year, the offense needs to find a way to score 17 points a game. Can the coaches find enough plays that this offense can execute consistently enough to score that many points? If so, the damage could be limited, and the Spartans may yet win 8 games. If not, then we may be looking at a total offensive collapse and a major setback of this program.

Thoughts on USF Game

Folks, I'm the biggest Spartan slappy (as evidenced by my foolish prediction that this team would go 12-2), but even I know that this season is lost. Incredibly, the offense is worse than last year, even as the defense is better. The offense scored one touchdown against a team that gave up 53 points last week. That simply does not bode well.

I think we've seen enough now to say that the Spartans could easily miss a bowl game and Mark Dantonio could end up on the hot seat by then end of this season. The bottom line is the offensive culture needs to change, and I think the best way to do that is to bring in new offensive coaches. I actually hoped Dantonio would bring in new people at the end of last year, but I also thought his moves this off-season would work -- I guess they didn't.

If I were Dantonio, I would already be looking around for a talented offensive coordinator. I would look for someone that is relatively similar in style to what MSU currently has (pro-style) and that pays attention to detail. MSU's offense seems to be hurt by a lot of the little things breaking down: bad blocking, dropped passes, slightly inaccurate quarterbacks, poor selling of fakes, etc.

Other than that, here's a brief list of things I saw in this game:

- The quarterbacks will not save this team. Maxwell is not mobile/creative enough, and the mobile/creative guys are too inexperienced, inaccurate, and mistake-prone. Maybe someone like Manziel could do something with this offense, but you don't want to build a program that relies on such rare talents. Sorry to many folks, but O'Connor does look like the number 3 QB. The order to me is still Maxwell > Cook > O'Connor, and I would just ride Maxwell and Cook the rest of the year. Unless Terry really is better than all of them, and I just don't think that is the case.

- Receivers seem to regress in this program. Burbridge is actually worse than last year. Will Kings get worse, the longer he stays in this program?

- The offensive line is supposed to be good, but they look lost. Poor pass protection, don't consistently open holes. There were some young guys playing (Conklin and Clark) so it's harder to blame it all on the coaches, but MSU's o-lines have struggled for years, so I'm leaning more than ever towards believing that the coaches deserve most of the blame.

- The running backs have talent, but that talent is limited by the struggles of the o-line and the rest of the offense.

- Special teams looked bad. Muffed punt, missed chip-shot field goal, no explosive plays. I guess the punting looked good, at least.

- The team looks generally undisciplined. Too many big penalties.

- The defense is elite, but that just breaks my heart.

Upshot: the offense looks set to break records in futility this year and will likely cost MSU a bowl game. Worst of all, this season could set the program back, and could even unmake much of what has been built in the Dantonio era.

Friday, September 6, 2013

Preview of USF Game

Too bizzy these days to write long previews, but I gotta post something about some things we need/don't need to see in this game.

- This game cannot be a continuation of last season: outstanding defense and inept offense. If we see the offense score less than 17 points, then . . . fuggedaboutit, folks. We can fully start to panic. We are staring at a sure 7 - 6 season, and possibly worse. We can also safely conclude that Dantonio will have to bring in an outsider for offensive coordinator next year, and he may as well start looking for someone immediately. I would recommend someone that pays attention to the little things, like making sure receivers block and making sure play-action-fakes look believable.

- The receivers have to perform, or else Dantonio may need to do what Bielema did last year when he fired his offensive line coach, after Wisconsin began the season completely unable to run the ball.

- The best O-line in the Dantonio era has to look the part, or else we can safely assume that there are coaching issues on the O-line. This line has talent, it must perform.

- As for quarterbacks, somebody has to step up, or this season is going to suck. But I just don't have much optimism. Maxwell has a really nice arm (that's just plain truth), but he is too cautious and not enough of a creator to overcome the futility of the rest of the offense. I know a lot of people want to see the younger guys take over, but I strongly suspect they will look a lot like Cook did in the WMU game. I would very much like to be wrong about this, I would happily eat my Spartan cap on this one, but I think Spartan nation may be in for more disappointment.

- Hopefully, the defense will continue to look dominant, while the special teams looks competent. I would hate to have anything new to worry about.

Final score: MSU 24  USF 10

Tuesday, September 3, 2013

What Can be Done?

As most in Spartan nation, I've been dwelling on the WMU game, panicking quite a bit about how the offensive futility could waste another championship defensive performance. I can't figure out what is happening. Why do the receivers look so bad? Why is the offensive line struggling? Is it the coaching? That's what I'm leaning towards. But wasn't Bollman supposed to make a difference with the o-line?

I'll say this, if the receivers and o-line don't improve quickly, then Maxwell and Cook do not appear to be the answer at quarterback. I still believe that Maxwell would be a decent quarterback, if he was in a system where all the parts are working. But he is not enough of a creator on his own to overcome the deficiencies in the rest of the offense - except perhaps when the Spartans are running the hurry-up offense (maybe that's the answer). Cook has the mobility to create more, but he does not have the accuracy. Maybe he could develop it over the course of a whole season, but we can't know that for certain.

So the question is whether one of the younger quarterbacks can create enough with their feet and arm. I'm certain O'Connor and Terry are faster than Maxwell and Cook, so they probably can do the running to create, but what about the passing? If they are not more accurate than Cook, then you basically have 2 more Connor Cooks. If they have shown accuracy, then I think they probably need to be given a shot. Something big needs to happen.

The bottom line, for me, is that you don't see this level of offensive futility even in most MAC schools. So I think there is something wrong with the offensive coaching staff - I hope the next game proves me wrong, but I doubt it. Unfortunately, it's too late to go out and hire new offensive coaches, so Dantonio is going to have work with what he has. The Spartans cannot waste another championship defense, so drastic measures are necessary. So if the young quarterbacks do create more, then they have to play, even if it has to be Terry.

I really really hope we're all just freaking out over nothing.