Potential Problems on the O-line

There's much buzz in the blogosphere that Skyler Burkland has retired from football.  Many are freaking out about this development, and I'm one of them. You see, the Spartans can still survive this year without Burkland -- as long as they don't lose any other starters -- but we're now getting pretty close to experiencing a major loss of depth for 2014.  Here's a list of O-linemen currently on the roster.

Kodi Kieler	C	RS FR
Zach Higgins	OG	RS FR
Benny McGowan	OG	RS FR
Jack Conklin	OL	RS FR
Kyle Lints	C	SO
Donavon Clark	OG	SO
Adam Brown	OG	SO
Jack Allen	OL	SO
Travis Jackson	C	JR
Connor Kruse	OG	JR
Shawn Kamm	OT	JR
Michael Dennis	OT	JR
Blake Treadwell	OG	SR
Dan France	OL	SR
Derek Hoebing	OT	SR
Henry Conway	OT	SR
Fou Fonoti	OT	SR

There are now 17 O-linemen on the roster, and OT Dennis Finley will be joining the roster in the fall.  So those are actually pretty good numbers, overall and in terms of experience. The Spartans are still in decent shape for 2013.

For 2014, however, the O-line looks like it could take a big step back, particularly in terms of experience. After this season, the Spartans look set to lose 6 O-linemen: 5 seniors (3 of which will likely be starters), and Burkland (who was likely slated to start in 2014).  That is a lot of experience to lose in one year.

The starters for 2014 could still be pretty solid.  Jackson will be a senior at center.  Allen and Clark should be solid guards. Hopefully, Conklin will be living up to some of the hype and emerge as a starting left tackle.  And hopefully, Finley will be able to start at right tackle as a redshirt freshman. After that, the Spartans are going to be counting on some of the other young guys to step up and provide some depth.  Guys like Kieler, Higgins, and McGowan.  It could all work out, or guys could struggle to emerge and create a huge problem for MSU at O-line.

As for recruiting, the 2014 class won't provide much help their first year, but the loss of Burkland likely means the coaches will need to take 5 O-linemen in this class. Two of those will have to be tackles.

Potential Problems at Wide Receiver

In the last couple of weeks the Spartans have lost 2 receivers: 2013 recruit Jay Harris (to rap) and sophomore Juwan Caeser (transfer).  So now is as good a time as any to reflect on where the Spartans stand with wide receiver depth. Below is a list of receivers currently on the roster.

Bennie Fowler	SR
Tony Lippett	JR
Keith Mumphery	JR
DeAnthony Arnett	JR
John Jakubik	JR
Aaron Burbridge	SO
Andre Sims Jr.	SO
AJ Troup	SO
Macgarrett Kings Jr.	SO
Tres Barksdale	RS FR
Monty Madaris	RS FR
Kyle Kerrick	RS FR
Matt Macksood	RS FR

As we can see, there are 13 receivers listed and we can add Trey Kilgore, who will be arriving this fall. It looks like Spartans have a relatively young receiving unit, with only Fowler set to graduate after this year. In fact, it looks like the Spartans will be peaking at the wide receiver position in 2014. They'll have 4 seniors and 4 juniors, including the rising Burbridge.

So if there is going to be a problem, it could come in 2015, when the Spartans lose those 4 seniors and probably Burbridge to early departure.  That could mean that they will lose several, if not all of their starters after 2014. As we learned last year, it takes some time to develop good receivers. I do think that guys like Kings, Madaris, and Troup could form a good starting unit for 2015, but the Spartans could be hurting for depth, unless some of the other guys currently on the roster emerge.

This all increases the importance of the 2014 recruiting class. It looks to me like the Spartans will need to bring in at least 2 quality receivers in this class, and perhaps a third. Unfortunately, it's looking rough out there for receiver recruiting this year. The Spartans came so close, but ultimately missed out on top receiving targets Drake Harris and Dareian Watkins. Moreover, they don't seem to be in on many top-end receivers at the moment. Hopefully, they'll be able to attract some top guys, soon. If not, we may have to wait to see if any solid receivers emerge during their senior years.  I also am impressed by the athleticism of prospects like Matt Morrissey, who is considered a safety, but looks like he could play receiver.  So he could be an option. We'll have to wait and see what happens there.

Potential Trouble at Linebacker in 2014

The loss of several linebackers after this season has been mentioned by various people in MSU web circles, but this situation has the potential to turn into a major problem for 2014.  Here is a list of the 11 linebackers currently on the roster.


48 Pat Rhomberg     LB 6-0 225 SO Columbus, Ohio - Bishop Watterson
34 Taiwan Jones     LB 6-3 240 JR New Baltimore, Mich. - Anchor Bay
28 Denicos Allen     LB 5-11 215 SR Hamilton, Ohio - Hamilton
40 Max Bullough     LB 6-3 242 SR Traverse City, Mich. - St. Francis
19 Danny Folino     LB 5-9 206 SR Okemos, Mich. - East Lansing
30 Riley Bullough     LB 6-2 232 RS FR Traverse City, Mich. - St. Francis
43 Ed Davis             LB       6-3 220 SO Detroit, Mich. - Southeastern
81 Matthew Eleweke  LB       6-3 205 RS FR Detroit, Mich. - University of Detroit Jesuit
45 Darien Harris     LB 6-0 215 SO Silver Spring, Md. - DeMatha Catholic
41 Kyler Elsworth     LB 6-1 222 SR Goodrich, Mich. - Goodrich
23 Jairus Jones     LB/S 6-1 208 SR Tampa, Fla. - Wharton

As you can see, there are 5 seniors who obviously will be leaving after this season.  Then there is the possibility that Taiwan Jones could leave early, if he has a breakout year.  And then, there is also the possibility that Riley Bullough has to make the permanent transition to running back, if none of the incoming freshmen is able to emerge. Right now, Bullough is the most effective running back on the roster and there is a real possibility that he may still be the most effective come fall, and even come 2014.

Folks, that all adds up to a potential loss of 7 out of 11 current linebackers.  The 2013 recruiting class will help a little, by adding 2 certain linebackers: Shane Jones and Jon Reschke. After that, there is the possibility that Delton Williams could move to linebacker, if he doesn't work out at running back.  The coaches seem to recognize the problem and have already recruited 3 linebackers in the 2014 class, and they could even try to add a 4rth.  But, of course, all of the linebackers in the 2014 class will be freshmen.

So there is a distinct possibility that the Spartans could end up with a relatively thin and inexperienced linebacker unit for 2014.  On the other hand, if Taiwan Jones stays and Riley Bullough is able to move back to defense, then we could see another elite group of linebackers taking the field for the Spartans in 2014.  There's such a fine line between anxiety and bliss in college football.

Perspective on Stars . . . From UM

I know there are some analyses out there showing a correlation between the number of stars a recruit receives from recruiting sites and some measure of performance, but I think I've stared at this stuff long enough (and I've been around sports long enough) to believe that people get too carried away with recruiting evaluations. Interestingly, UM offers a quick but telling example. Below is an incomplete list (I don't want to waste too much time looking at UM) of 3 and 2-star recruits who were either major contributors to Michigan's team last year and/or will be major contributors to Michigan's team this year.  How do I know that they were major contributors?  I looked at their depth chart for their game against Ohio State last year and I caught several of their games, when they were not playing at the same time as MSU.

3 stars (according to Scout)
Jake Ryan OLB
Drew Dileo WR
Frank Clark DE
Desmond Morgan ILB
Raymon Taylor CB
Keith Heitzman DE
Cameron Gordon OLB
Ben Braden OT
Fitzgerald Toussaint RB
Jeremy Gallon WR
Thomas Rawls RB
Jack Miller C

2 stars
Thomas Gordon FS

Folks, that's at least 13 guys that will contribute even next year, despite the presence of all the 4-star recruits.  We've seen the same thing at MSU, with 2-star guys like LeVeon Bell and Darqueze Dennard outperforming 4-star guys like Edwin Baker and Mylan Hicks.  This is why I'm not as concerned about recruiting rankings. The bottom line for me is that there is plenty of talent out there in the world, especially since scholarship limits prevent the big boys from hoarding talent the way they once could.  Moreover, I think the MSU coaches show year after year that they have an outstanding ability to find talented guys who fit the program's needs.

Having said these things, I do think "5-star recruiting" has 2 significant advantages.  First, there are some 5-star players that eventually emerge to dominate games.  But this isn't such an enormous advantage, since even super-elite guys like Jadaveon Clowney take time to develop, and then they really only dominate for one year, or so, before they head off to the NFL.

A second, more important advantage is observable in the trenches.  There are only so many huge men in this world that can move like ballerinas and MSU has had some trouble recruiting guys like that. If you want to see what the difference 5-star recruiting can make in the trenches, just compare MSU's o-lines with Alabama's o-lines.  I think the MSU coaches want to be able to run many of the offensive plays Alabama runs, but they simply don't have the kind of o-line that will allow that.

Thankfully, there are things you can do to still be effective without dominating the trenches.  To a large extent, MSU has already solved the problem on defense.  Of course, the Spartans have already built an elite defense, mainly by developing strong secondary and linebacker units.  Unfortunately, the coaches have not yet figured out a consistent formula on offense.

Personally, I think that if you can't recruit elite o-linemen, then 3 things seem to have worked over the years.  First, you can go with a spread offense, though even those run into troubles against good defenses, and of course, the MSU coaching staff is not suited to implementing a full spread -- though perhaps some spread.  Second, mobile quarterbacks can overcome some of the weaknesses of a weak o-line. More and more teams, even in the NFL, are looking for quarterbacks that can scramble when things break down.  Even MSU is clearly headed in that direction with their recruiting.  Third, large running backs like LeVeon Bell, Jehuu Caulcrick, and TJ Duckett seem to have more success running behind weaker o-lines than smaller speed backs. I think the coaches have recognized this, as well, though perhaps not with the necessary urgency.  They are going for Gerald Owens in the 2014 class, but they did not bring in any 230-pounders in the previous 2 classes. Hopefully, incoming freshman Delton Williams will be able to get up to that size, but probably not for his freshman year, meaning that Riley Bullough may have to play running back quite a bit this coming season.

Recruiting 2014: Linebacker Chris Frey

It looks like the Spartans have picked up their third linebacker of the 2014 class in the form of  Ohio outside linebacker Chris Frey.  Frey is generally considered a 3-star recruit, with offers from most MAC schools and from Kentucky, Boston College, and Syracuse.  Unfortunately, the info on Frey is rather limited at this time.  To begin with, there is quite a bit of disagreement about his size.  He is listed as somewhere between 6' and 208 lbs. (Rivals) and 6'3" and 215 lbs. (247).  Let's take a look at his video.

OK, in his video he does not look 6'3" to me, but he may have grown since the end of the season.  He shows some good strength, including against guys that are bigger than him, and especially when playing fullback -- don't be surprised if he ends up becoming a solid fullback for MSU.  He doesn't quite have  elite speed, but he looks fast enough to do well at linebacker for the Spartans.  More importantly, he looks like a playmaker, though there are a few plays where you want him to show a little more aggressiveness.

Upshot: keeping in mind that he's just a junior in this video, it looks to me like Frey is a solid pickup, especially if he does reach that height of 6'3".  As for what this means for the rest of the 2014 class, the Spartans now have 3 guys that can play linebacker, but they will probably need to pick up at least 4 linebackers in this class.  MSU is set to graduate several linebackers after this season, and if Riley Bullough makes a permanent move to running back, they may even want to pick up a 5th linebacker in this class.

Recruiting 2014: Tight End Matt Sokol

The Spartans have received their 7th commitment in the form of Michigan tight end Matt Sokol.   Sokol is clearly an under-the-radar recruit; no recruiting sites have rated him yet and he has only been offered by some MAC schools and Wisconsin and Illinois.  But to me he looks quite impressive.  He has great size 6'5" and 220lbs, and he has some really exciting video:

Sokol plays quarterback for his high school, so we can't evaluate the quality of his hands or his route running. But we can still see that he possesses the athleticism, mobility, and toughness to become a very effective tight end. He also plays the position for his AAU team, so he will come in with experience at the position.

Upshot: athletic kids don't always turn into effective players, but at least for now let's let ourselves get excited about Sokol's athleticism.  He's definitely one of the more athletic players in this recruiting class, which is actually turning out to be quite an athletic class, overall.  As for the rest of the class, I suspect the Spartans will try to bring in one more tight end, especially if they can get a guy like Gaelin Elmore.  Personally, I like the idea of bringing in several tight ends per class because they are usually good enough athletes to become effective defensive ends (see JJ Watt and even Shilique Calhoun) or even offensive tackles (see Eric Fisher and Lane Johnson).

Thoughts on Missing Out on Lawrence Marshall

Let me try to be objective about Lawrence Marshall's commitment to UM.  Folks, this one hurts almost as much as the Drake Harris loss.  Marshall was a solid talent and he was supposedly leaning towards MSU for several weeks, now.  The inability to seal the deal is certainly a little frustrating.

On the other hand, if Marshall was being recruited as a weak-side defensive end, then there are actually better prospects still out there. Personally, I think guys like Joe Henderson and Robert Bowers are better suited to play WDE because they have a little more speed and length than Marshall.  And now that Marshall committed to UM, a guy like Henderson is actually more likely to end up at MSU.

Marshall actually reminds me a lot of William Gholston. He looks strong, but not particularly fast. So I think he would be better suited to play strong-side defensive end, and he would have likely excelled at that position.  But were the coaches intending to bring him in to play SDE?  If not, then he may have taken up the spot of a better WDE prospect in the 2014 class.  And then, it's also possible that he would have occupied that spot on the roster for a few years, kind of like Gholston did the last couple of years.  I love Gholston, but he was not quite fast enough to play WDE.  I think Shilique Calhoun will show us this year what a speedier WDE can do.

The main point, folks, is that while the Marshall loss hurts, there is quite a bit of talent still out there. Heck, there is still a lot of talent that will emerge throughout the next 12 months.  Don't forget, we're talking about a crop of kids that is only about to finish the 11th grade.  There is still a long way to go.

Still Excited About Recruiting

Quick word on losing out on Dareian Watkins.  Folks, there is no doubt his commitment to Northwestern was a major blow.  Watkins is the kind of talent MSU needs at receiver, and unfortunately, it doesn't look like the coaches are having much luck with other top-end receivers. Hopefully, the coaches will be able to pull in at least 2 quality guys as we get closer to signing day.

But despite the Watkins loss, I'm still pretty excited about recruiting because the Spartans are still in good shape with some outstanding recruits, including: Lamar Dawson (CB), Lawrence Marshall (DE), Matt Sokol (TE), Gerald Owens (RB), and Chris James (RB).  Folks, each of these guys is a legit talent.  All of them have exciting video, where they display the kind of abilities the MSU coaching staff consistently molds into NFL talent.

Of course, these guys could still end up committing elsewhere, so we need to make sure we don't get too excited. On the other hand, losing out on Watkins shouldn't get us too down.  

Simulations Make Similar Predictions to My Own

So it turns out that my predictions for the 2013 football season are in line with more technical predictions. As reported by the Free Press, Football Outsiders ran some simulations and concluded that MSU has the best chance of winning the Legends division.  My thinking is actually quite similar to theirs, though I don't take the time to run the simulations.  As I mentioned in my prediction post, I basically assume the defense will be at a championship level, and all MSU has to do is figure out a way to score roughly 6 more points per game.  I basically expect them to be able to do that.

Post-Spring Prediction for 2013 Season: Spartans go 12-2

Alrighty, since we have months to go before the season starts, I might as well make my post-spring prediction for how the season will go.  Of course, I will be updating these predictions once the info from the fall practices begins trickling out - especially the info on the performance of the freshmen running backs and on whether any key O-linemen were injured.  But let's cross that bridge when we get to it.

I will start by confessing to being burned badly last year, perhaps worse than anyone else in Spartan nation.  I predicted the Spartans would go 12-2 in 2012 and of course they ended up going 7-6.  In my defense, the Spartan defense actually performed better than I expected, but the offense just turned out to be so remarkably futile.  The Spartans would have won 10 or 11 games, if they could just have scored 3 more points per game.  Ironically, it is this frustrating outcome that makes me optimistic about 2013.

I do think that MSU is largely going to be the same team as in 2013, but with a moderately better offense and special teams - that will score more than the 3 extra points per game required.  First, I think the defense could be more talented, and certainly will have more depth than last year. The defensive coaching staff will be largely the same, with the exception of Ron Burton replacing Ted Gill as defensive line coach. So the only real concern I have on defense is that other teams could evolve to outmaneuver the MSU defense. But considering that the coaches are willing to do things like visit LSU to see how they do things on defense down there, I have confidence that the Spartan defense is capable of adapting and thus continuing their prowess.

On offense, I saw enough from Maxwell this Spring to believe he will excel this year.  In fact, I was quite impressed with Maxwell's short range accuracy.  He was really "threading the needle" on some of those passes.  If he could just improve his long range accuracy a bit more and his running ability, I think Maxwell could become a star.  The great thing for the Spartans is that Connor Cook is also playing pretty well.  So the Spartans have good talent and depth at quarterback.

Of course, the quarterbacks are going to need the receivers to continue their improvement, and from what I saw, the receivers are making significant progress.  Yes, they dropped some balls, but I wonder how much the cold weather was a factor.  I can tell you that my hands feel like wooden spoons when the temperature drops below 50 degrees, and the temperature during the Spring game was much lower than that.  More importantly, I think the key guys looked pretty good, overall.

Folks, the passing game will be better than last year and could even be quite explosive.  The biggest remaining question mark is the tight end position.  There is simply not much experience there, and consequently, I expect that position to struggle as much as the receivers did last year.  I hope for a pleasant surprise there, come fall, but I wouldn't bet on it.

The running game also looks set to take a step back, BUT, not as far back as I once thought.  I think that Bullough has all the tools to do well at running back, perhaps as well as Bell in his sophomore year.  With Bullough softening the defenses and with the O-line gelling, I think the other three speed backs should turn out to be rather productive over the course of a whole season. Of course, the Spartans have 3 promising running backs arriving in the fall and I expect at least 2 of them to contribute quite a bit.  Overall, I'm expecting the running game to be pretty good.

The passing and running game should benefit from the best O-line in the Dantonio era.  The O-line will be very experienced and deep.  If the Spartans can finally avoid injuries, this line could even become dominant as it gels.  If they do suffer some injuries (no more than 3), they will have the depth to still be pretty good.

Finally, it appears that Michael Geiger is the real deal at kicker, hitting a 56 yarder in a recent Ohio high school all-star game.

Put all of these things together, along with a considerably easier schedule, and you have the makings of a great year.  Last year I predicted the Spartans would go 12-2, and I think I was one year ahead of myself.  I think this is the year they go 12-2.  Note that this is a downgrade for me.  I actually predicted, a while ago, that 2013 was Dantonio's best year to win a national championship. Actually, I would have stuck with that prediction, if Bell, Gholston, and Sims had stayed.