Friday, August 30, 2013

Thoughts on WMU Game

OK, the Spartans won, but they certainly did not inspire much confidence. Things just don't look much different from last year. Here are a few things I noticed.

Offense

At times WMU's offense looked more competent even though they were playing against MSU's elite defense. That can't happen. That can't happen. MSU should have better talent, so MSU's offensive struggles are mostly on the coaches. I can accept that a program might struggle one year because it gets hit with a perfect storm of graduations. But two years in a row shows that you have a problem within your program.

Maxwell looked pretty good at times. At the end of the first half he looked outstanding, throwing some confident bullets right on the money. But overall, he struggled to move the offense. I did wonder more in this game whether Maxwell would excel in a more established offense.

Connor Cook runs very well, fast enough and tough enough to keep O'Connor and Terry on the bench - if in fact there were plans to use those guys to run the option or other running plays. He does appear to be less accurate than Maxwell, and I can see why the coaches worry about his decision making. But I think he is actually a good complement to Maxwell.

Langford looked explosive. He does look like a home run hitter. Too bad he didn't get many good holes to run through. Riley Bullough ran better in the first half. Otherwise, he didn't do too much. Nick Hill looked good at times.

MSU needs to evaluate its wide receiver coaches and/or its receiver recruiting. The receivers are not making progress. Fowler seems to get open a lot, but he must have dropped at least 3 catchable balls. Everyone else is not getting much separation, or running bad routes. I don't know, but the receivers did not look good.

The best offensive line of the Dantonio era did not look good. They struggled to open holes for the running backs and allowed the quarterbacks to get pressured too often. This unit will struggle against Notre Dame.

Defense

Looks very similar to last year, which is not a bad thing, overall.

Looks like teams are going to be trying to beat the defense with the long bombs. It does work sometimes. But the secondary does look better than last year.

The defensive line is still strong against the run, but doesn't get much penetration on its own -- except late in the game. Most of the penetration was the result of linebacker blitzes.

Special teams

There was a lot of sloppiness. Bad snaps, the punt returner struggled to locate the ball. But at least the kickers looked decent.

Coaches

The play-calling looked OK, except that on offense it seems that the coaches want to push plays that this offense just can't execute.

I know Dantonio likes to stay loyal to his guys, but it's danger time. If this offense does not improve by the end of this year, they need to go pick off Western Michigan's offensive coordinator, or some other outsider who can come in and change the offensive culture. The offensive struggles could put Dantonio on the hot seat by next year.

Thursday, August 29, 2013

Give Maxwell a Chance

I see a lot of division about Maxwell being declared the Starter. The obvious thing to say about that is that people need to wait and see what happens. As fans, we have too little information to predict how any of the quarterbacks will do. The people with the most information, the coaches, decided that Maxwell should be the starter, and right now that has to be good enough for the rest of us. Folks, if Maxwell is not who we hoped for, we'll get our chance to grumble. But right now, none of us can really make a sound judgment, so we really need to be patient.

For the record, I predict that Maxwell will excel this year - just goin with my gut, folks, cuz I don't know any more than the rest of you. I predict he will make a Ricky Stanzi (remember "Rick Six"?) -like improvement. Maxwell showed progress in the Spring game. He showed confidence and some unbelievable accuracy - though his receivers dropped the ball several times on that cold day. The only concerns I had were with his unwillingness to make plays with his legs (there were a couple of plays where he should have taken off but instead threw the ball away) and his accuracy beyond 30 yards. He needs to fix those 2 things to become a complete quarterback.

And look, if he doesn't show progress, the schedule is set up so that the damage will be minimal. The Maxwell/Cook combination should generate enough offense to win the first 3 games, and may even be good enough to get the Spartans past everyone but Notre Dame and Nebraska. And if another quarterback clearly emerges (maybe Cook or O'Connor "blow up"), I'm sure they'll get their shot. Anyway, let's wait to see what happens.

Tuesday, August 27, 2013

Game Against WMU

OK, here we go, the season is upon us. Here are a few things I NEED / DON"T NEED to see in the opening game.

Passing game improved

Last year, the passing game not only stunk, it showed little improvement over the course of the season. In some ways, the passing game actually went backwards over the course of the season. For example, at the beginning of the season, I thought Maxwell would be better than Cousins by the time he left MSU. He did show flashes of greatness, especially against Ohio State, but by the end of the season, Maxwell was in full decline. He was unable to create with his feet and the offense was unable to move the ball with him at the helm. Maxwell, or whoever starts, must show considerable progress, especially if the rest of the offense is struggling, I want to see Maxwell taking off on a lot more runs (shoot, even Cousins is running a lot more these days in the NFL).

Obviously, the receivers and tight ends need to show that they . . . EXIST. If we see 5 drops or more in this game, I'll be immediately lowering my expectations for this season.

Offensive line dominating

This is supposed to be the best O-line in the Dantonio era. In this game, I need to see that this means something. Dantonio's best line has to dominate WMU. I need to see that the quarterback has time to throw and that the running backs have nice holes to run through. If the O-line struggles in this game, I can't see the Notre Dame game going well at all, and we can probably start panicking about the entire running game.

Running backs

I'm not worried about the running backs, and I'm hoping to see that this expectation is justified. As long as the O-line is living up to expectations, the Spartans have enough talent here to excel. Man, I hope we don't see something like a fumbling problem that negates their talent.

Defense

I'm not worried about the defense, and I'm hoping this game justifies that expectation. It would really suck if after this game we find ourselves worrying about the D-line's inability to pressure the quarterback or stop the running game. Or if we find ourselves worrying about one of the corners getting beat deep multiple times.

Special teams

It would suck if after all the good news about Geiger and Muma, we find ourselves worrying about the kicking game.

Upshot

Overall, I am hoping to see signs that in Mark Dantonio's seventh season the Spartans are about to put it all together. I am hoping to see that the coaches' eye for talent has produced a team that is explosive on both sides of the ball. I want to see that the coaching staff has also reached a new level, that they have created a disciplined, smart, and creative team. I'd like to see enough dominance in this game to give the backups a lot of snaps. I'd like it if those backups look so explosive that I feel spoiled - folks, I want to feel bad about our abundance.

Final score: MSU 45 - WMU 10

Thursday, August 22, 2013

Prediction for 2013 Season: Spartans go 12-2

Well folks, it's time to predict how the season will go for MSU. Last year, I was way off. I said the Spartans would go 12-2, and of course they ended up going 7-6. In my defense, most people expected at least 10 wins, but nobody expected the passing game to be as bad as it was. I stuck my neck out again this spring when I made my way-too-early prediction that the Spartans would go 12-2 this season.

Believe it or not, this prediction is a "check down" for me. Back in 2011, I predicted that Mark Dantonio would have his best chance to win a national championship in 2013. The Spartans were going to have a lot of mature talent, especially at quarterback, running back, and the O-line. The defense was also supposed to be peaking.

Well, a lot of those elements are actually now in place, but the Spartans did lose two key pieces (LeVeon Bell and Dion Sims) that I think would have made a huge difference for this team. Moreover, the quarterbacks and receivers are not quite at the level I hoped for, though they should be much better than last year. With that, here is my game by game prediction.

08/30/13 vs. Western Michigan TV East Lansing, Mich.

The Spartans should win this one, as long as they are focused.

09/07/13 vs. South Florida TV East Lansing, Mich.

The Spartans should win this one, but it could be more a struggle than expected. This is a dangerous opponent.

09/14/13 vs. Youngstown State TV East Lansing, Mich.

The Spartans should win this one, as long as they are focused.

09/21/13 at Notre Dame TV Notre Dame, Ind.

This should be the first major challenge, especially because in the last 2 years we have seen Notre Dame's recruiting advantage assert itself along the trenches. MSU's offensive line has been particularly dominated by ND's 5-star d-linemen. If MSU's best line in the Dantonio era can stand up to that talent, then the Spartans have a real shot. If not, we're looking at another futile offensive performance. MSU's defense should do well, but the offense has to find a way. I think they will, not just because the o-line will be pretty good this year, but because I expect the coaches to fully deploy a lot of quarterback runs in this game (probably O'Connor). It should be a close game, but I'm going with MSU in this one.

10/05/13 at Iowa * Iowa City, Iowa

Iowa should struggle this year, but they will be tough at home. If the Spartans are focused, and if the offense is not the disaster it was last year, then MSU should win this one somewhat comfortably.

10/12/13 vs. Indiana (Homecoming) * East Lansing, Mich.

This will be the battle of a great defense (MSU's) versus a great offense (Indiana's). I think MSU's defense will be good enough to allow the offense to win the game with just a decent performance.

10/19/13 vs. Purdue * East Lansing, Mich.

This game will be tougher than expected. Purdue has some talent and a pretty good new coach. I'm hoping that the fact that the coach is new will slow them down a bit. This is a more dangerous opponent than most people anticipate, but MSU should pull it out if they are focused.

10/26/13 at Illinois * Champaign, Ill.

Illinois should struggle this year, and so, MSU should win this one if they are focused.

11/02/13 vs. Michigan * East Lansing, Mich.

MSU will have no trouble getting motivated for this one and I think that MSU should be more talented than UM this year. So, the only way MSU loses this one is if something unexpected happens, like Devin Gardner blowing up or MSU's quarterbacks collapsing.

11/16/13 at Nebraska * Lincoln, Neb.

MSU should have beaten Nebraska last year because it's going to be tougher to do so this year. Nebraska's offense should be one of the best in the country, though their defense will remain a relative liability. I'm hoping MSU will learn from the whoopin Wisconsin put on Nebraska in the B1G championship last year. There is no reason they can't do something like that. But history is against MSU in this one.

11/23/13 at Northwestern * Evanston, Ill.

Northwestern is always a dangerous team, but if MSU's offense is just decent in this one, the Spartans should win.

11/30/13 vs. Minnesota * East Lansing, Mich.

Minnesota will be tougher this year than usual, so this is no gimme. Still, this is a game the Spartans should win, if they are focused.

Upshot

I really think MSU has a good shot to go 11-1 in the regular season, as long their quarterbacks don't collapse or they suffer catastrophic injuries. At worst, I expect the Spartans to be 9-3 in the regular season, and I think that outcome should be considered disappointing. The Spartans are too loaded on D and they just need to "regress to the mean" on offense, and that should be enough to power them past most of the regular season schedule. 

If they do get to 11-1 then they will very likely be playing for the B1G championship, probably against Ohio State. Can they win that one? I think they have a good chance, but it will certainly depend upon how the quarterbacks are playing by that time. I'll call this game a toss-up and throw it to the Spartans - cuz I'm a Spartan slappy! 

So the Spartans get to 12-1 and play in a BCS bowl against one of the top tier SEC teams. They play tough, and lose a close one. And they end the season at 12-2.

Saturday, August 17, 2013

The Quarterback Competition

Beyond busy these days, but I'll weigh in briefly on the quarterback competition. Everyone's talking about the results of today's scrimmage, which just turned the quarterback race into a real mess. For weeks we've been talking about Connor Cook challenging Andrew Maxwell, and now suddenly it seems like the race may be between Tyler O'Connor and Damion Terry. Of course, that's premature to suggest because the bottom line is that we don't have enough info as fans to make any sound judgments about the QB race.

However, why do blogs exist, if not to speculate? So I'll say this. If O'Connor and Terry faced the same defenses as Maxwell and Cook, then I think the latter two have been surpassed. If O'Connor and Terry did not face the 1s, then I think the coaches need to experiment over the next week and give these guys a shot at the 1s.

Maybe that's all that's going on here. Maybe Maxwell and Cook faced the 1s while O'Connor and Terry faced the backups. But if in fact all four quarterbacks faced similar circumstances, then the QB race has completely changed. Then suddenly we have a whole new set of questions to think about.

First, is Terry good enough to supplant O'Connor? Is he good enough to burn his redshirt? If so, that would create a big problem with the depth chart next year, because Maxwell would graduate and you would have to assume that O'Connor and Cook would transfer. That would leave Terry and true freshman Chris Durkin for the 2014 season, and that would be a dangerous situation.

So then you say to yourself: maybe Terry is the best QB, but is O'Connor good enough to get you a B10 championship? By going with O'Connor you can still redshirt Terry, and you improve your chances that O'Connor will come back next season so that you can have 3 scholarship QBs on the 2014 roster.

You also have to worry about how Terry, a true freshman, would do in big games. This is a critical year for the Spartans and even the most talented true freshmen QBs struggle against good defenses (think of Terrelle Pryor and Braxton Miller). Then again, if he consistently outproduces MSU's other quarterbacks (combined!), then what can you say? Maybe the guy is just a real prodigy. How do you justify keeping him off the field?

The results of the scrimmage are exciting, but they certainly do not make the decisions the coaches must make any easier.


Wednesday, August 7, 2013

Recruiting 2015: Jayru Campbell

OK, the floodgates are open now. The Spartans received their second commitment for 2015 from Michigan quarterback Jayru Campbell. This is another big time commit, since Campbell is likely to be a consensus 4-star recruit and since he had offers from places like Alabama and Notre Dame. Campbell already has good size for a QB (6'3"), but he probably will grow at least another inch or 2 by next year. Let's check out his video.


Campbell clearly keeps the Spartans moving towards very mobile quarterbacks. He doesn't appear to possess 4.3 speed, but he looks to be about as mobile as Tyler O'Connor and Damion Terry - both of whom are quite fast. Unfortunately, we're looking at highlights here, so we can't really get a sense of some important traits like how he reads defenses and handles pressure, but at least we can see that he has a strong arm and good accuracy on some deep passes. And again, we're talking about a sophomore here, who should develop a lot over the next 2 years.

Bottom line: I don't think MSU has ever recruited as much talent at quarterback as it has in the last 5 years. Campbell is another excellent prospect, who also happens to play for Cass Tech, a UM pipeline. Campbell's commitment could really get the ball rolling on Cass Tech becoming an MSU pipeline.

Recruiting 2015: Kyonta Stallworth

Update: it looks like Stallworth has not quite committed yet, so we may need to be patient and nervous for a while.

OK folks, I'm hesitant to write a post about a 2015 commit because recruiting is really starting to push some boundaries and because it feeds too much into a cult of anticipation, where we obsess about potential rather than enjoying the players that are actually performing today. It's human nature - we love the prodigy more than the fully realized genius. I do it too, so I'll go along with it, at least until the day high school sophomores start committing. At that point, I'll consider college football to be way too out of control for me to partake of it.

With that, the Spartans' first commitment of the 2015 class is a huge one. MSU received a commitment from Michigan offensive/defensive lineman Kyonta Stallworth, who looks set to become a consensus 4-star recruit and perhaps one of the top 3 recruits in the state of Michigan. His composite 247 score would make him the highest rated recruit in at least 2 years. He is currently listed at about 6'4" and around 265 lbs, and since he is just entering is junior year, he could still grow another inch or two (which would be solid for an offensive tackle). Let's look at some video.


Stallworth seems to have it all at a young age. When run blocking he shows very good power and an excellent ability to latch on to defenders, while in pass protection he shows pretty good feet and balance and a strong base. Honestly, the only quibbles I have are that I wish he was a little more explosive - but folks, we're talking about a sophomore so I'm pretty sure that in 3 years he'll have that part figured out - and I always worry about highly rated guys coasting on their laurels - we'll have to wait and see if he can avoid that pitfall.

Bottom line: this is a big time pick up for MSU, one which may end up rivaling the commitment of William Gholston, back in the day.

Saturday, August 3, 2013

Recruiting 2014: Robert Bowers

The Spartans received a solid commitment today from Ohio defensive end Robert Bowers. He is generally considered a 3-star recruit, with offers from places like Kentucky, Louisville, and Cincinnati. He has good height (6'6") for a defensive end, but he is a little thin (205 lbs, or so). Let's look at some video.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7AMt1jRBA_s

Bowers looks like another Demetrius Cooper, a raw, quick and fast defensive end prospect who will need to gain about 40 to 50 pounds. But he has 2 years before he'll be called into action, so he has plenty of time to gain the weight. He does show good aggressiveness and pursuit, so I think he has all the tools to become an excellent defensive end by his third year in the program. I like this pick-up quite a bit. Bowers really has that diamond-in-the-rough look, though only time will tell if he will actually be able to add the size and strength to excel at defensive end.

As for the rest of the class, the Spartans are well on their way to meeting their defensive line needs. They really only need a strong-side defensive end (perhaps Chris Slayton?), but they would likely take as many as 6 d-linemen, if they can get some elite guys. Otherwise, MSU's biggest needs remain receivers, o-linemen, and at least one safety.