The Ohio State Game: Many Things Will be Revealed

OK folks, here we go.  We have come to it at last: the most meaningful game of the season, so far.  It's a little trite to say that, of course, because from here on out almost every game is going to become "the most meaningful game of the season, so far."  But let’s not get bogged down with over-thinking things.    

This game is critical for the standard reason.  It's a game that the Spartans must win if they are to contend for the B1G title.  But it's perhaps more important than most games because it is the type of game that should give us a good indication of what we can expect from the Spartans the rest of the season and where they are as a program.  The game against Ohio State could answer several important things:

How far along is the offensive line.  Even with all its scandal problems, Ohio State is still a strong defensive team; so if MSU has weaknesses on the offense, we will clearly see them in this game.  The o-line will certainly be tested, and I hate to say it, but this could get ugly.  I think Fou Fonoti will do well at right tackle.  But Travis Jackson, at center, and Dan France, at left tackle, are sure to struggle.  Our only hope with the o-line is that Jackson is some kind of wunderkind and that France has made giant strides in the 2 weeks since Notre Dame clearly exposed him. 

Can Cousins relax?  If the Spartan o-line has not improved, Kirk Cousins will be pressured all game long and he likely won't handle it well.  Up to this point, I have to agree somewhat with the grumbling that Cousins is kind of playing panicked.  I see him throwing off his back foot quite frequently, even when he isn't being pressured, even against the inferior teams they have faced thus far.  He needs to find a way to relax, and I don't know if this is the game where he will achieve that.  

How good are the wide receivers not named BJ Cunningham?  Wide receiver was supposed to be a position of great strength and depth for the Spartans, but up to this point, only BJ Cunningham has played consistently (spectacularly) for the Spartans.  I expect him to get his fair share of receptions, but I suspect the rest of the receivers will struggle against OSU's athletic secondary.  I anticipate that the Spartan passing game will mostly depend on Cunningham and the tight ends.  Boy do I hope that's enough to create some offense.

How good is the coaching staff?  OSU has trouble on offense and MSU has a solid defense.  OSU is strong on defense and so I expect MSU will likely struggle to move the ball and score points.  Thus, this game has the makings of "Tressel-ball."  That is, as Jim Tressel used to emphasize, winning will depend on defense, special teams, field position, protecting the ball, and limiting mistakes.  Every point is going to count.  If the coaching staff gets "cute" like when they tried the fake field goal against Notre Dame (instead of taking the much needed points), then the probability of losing dramatically increases. 

How far along is the football program under Dantonio?  The buckeyes are missing key players, they have a weak offense led by a freshman quarterback, and while their defense is still strong, it's not as strong as it typically is.  If MSU is ever going to beat OSU, now is the time.  A win at the horseshoe against what is still a strong OSU team tells you that the Spartans can win against tough teams on the road, and that they are making great progress as a program.   A close loss that is attributed to the o-line doesn't tell us much about the status of the program because we can still plausibly wonder what MSU will be like when they finally build a dominant o-line.   If the Spartans choke and get blown out, then we can be more certain that Dantonio is Alvarez--a good coach who likely won't ever get over the hump of beating the elite teams.  As I noted in my piece comparing Dantonio to Alvarez, that’s not necessarily a bad thing, as long as Dantonio continues to build a solid program that can then be handed off to an elite coach.

Prediction

As I noted, I am expecting a defensive battle and I am expecting special teams and turnovers to be the deciding factors in this game.  That means Nick Hill and Keshawn Martin have a chance to make an impact.  I also think that Cousins will play a critical role.  If he plays panicked, then I can see him making several mistakes and OSU capitalizing on those mistakes.  If he can at least avoid the turnovers, MSU has a chance to pull this one out. 

Bottom line: MSU’s offense will perform slightly better against OSU’s defense than OSU’s offense will peform against MSU’s defense.  So the final score will be:

MSU  17  OSU  13

Thoughts on Game vs CMU

Well, this is one of those games that's hard to say much about.  MSU looked pretty good all around, but this probably has more to do with CMU being so bad rather than MSU improving.  The one area that I was disappointed with is Cousins' play.  I no longer think he has a shot at the first round in the NFL draft and he is simply not playing anywhere near where I expected him to be this year.  At times, he's kind of a liability.  At least his backup, Andrew Maxwell, looks like he could someday be better than Cousins.  He doesn't have Cousins' experience, but he seemed to have more accuracy.  In my mind, accuracy is the most important thing a quarterback can have, so that's promising.

Otherwise, here are a few other positives I saw:
- The O-line played better than last week, especially Fonoti at right tackle.  That should ease the loss of Burkland.
- The defense was stingy, but then again, CMU looked bad against Western Michigan last week.
- Leveon Bell may be the most effective back for the Spartans this year because, even while the O-line struggles, he appears to be capable of making opportunities for himself--usually by pounding out some extra yards.

In short, we'll have to wait 'til next week to really see what the Spartans are made of.  They seem quite capable of handling the cupcakes, but if they lose next week against Ohio State, they may be well on their way to becoming a program that simply can't get over the hump to join the nation's or even the conference's elites.

Is Mark Dantonio MSU’s Barry Alvarez?

A loss like last week’s loss against Notre Dame can bring on many feelings of pessimism.  It can make you wonder whether last year’s record of 11-2 was a fluke, whether MSU is going to collapse this year (especially if the O-line doesn’t come together), and whether Dantonio can ever get MSU to compete against elite teams.  This was supposed to be MSU’s best team, since…perhaps since the 60s.  And as I discussed in my review of the game a few days ago, they only looked good on defense. 

Well, let me provide some information that can help us develop some perspective, patience, and ultimately gratitude.  You see, when Dantonio was hired, the first thought that came to my mind was that this guy could win about 8 or 9 games a season and get MSU established as a solid football program.  I thought to myself, he’s not going to be Lou Holtz and come in here and win a national championship, but he could be the Barry Alvarez of MSU.

Barry Alvarez was, of course, Wisconsin’s head football coach from 1990 to 2005.  As we can see in the table below, he turned around a program that had been mediocre from 1970 to 1985, and that was a Big Ten bottom-feeder from 1986 to 1990.  Alvarez never became an “elite” coach; he didn’t win a national championship, and his record in the Big Ten was barely above .500.  But he was a solid coach that generally won the games he was supposed to win and he did also manage to win 3 Big Ten titles (1993, 1998, 1999) and go 8-3 in bowl games. 

Coach	Years	Total Record	Big Ten Record
John Jardine	1970–1977	37–47–3	25–38–1
Dave McClain	1978–1985	46–42–3	32–34–3
Jim Hilles	1986	3–9	2–6
Don Morton	1987–1989	6–27	3–21
Barry Alvarez	1990–2005	118–73–4	65–60–3
Bret Bielema	2006–Present	49–16	26–13

So you could say that Wisconsin was not “elite” under Alvarez, but perhaps his biggest accomplishment was that he more than adequately got the program rolling in the right direction, and then he handed the keys off to a guy who appears capable of taking that next step towards “eliteness”: Bret Bielema.  Bielema has clearly continued to improve Wisconsin to the point where they can now be considered a program that can legitimately be expected to compete for the national championship, almost every year.    

So, how does Dantonio compare with Alvarez?  Well, in the table below we can see that Dantonio has done for MSU what Alvarez did for Wisconsin.  Dantonio has taken a mediocre MSU program and turned it into a consistent program that can challenge for the Big Ten title.  Like Alvarez, however, Dantonio has not turned MSU into an elite program that can compete with other elite programs, such as Alabama and Notre Dame (this year’s Notre Dame, which looks to be the best Notre Dame team in a long time).  Dantonio has also not turned MSU into a deep enough team that can reload from year to year and that can overcome injuries in certain units (such as the O-line). 

Coach	Years	Total Record	Total %	Big Ten Record	Big Ten %
Clarence Munn	1947–1953	54–9–2	.846	5–1	.833
Duffy Daugherty	1954–1972	109–69–5	.609	72–50–3	.588
Denny Stolz	1973–1975	19–13–1	.591	14–9–1	.604
Darryl Rogers	1976–1979	24–18–2	.568	19–12–1	.609
Muddy Waters	1980–1982	10–23–0	.303	8–18–0	.308
George Perles	1983–1994	68–67–4	.504	53–42–2	.557
Nick Saban	1995–1999	35–24–1	.592	23–16–1	.589
Bobby Williams	2000–2002	15–17	.469	6–15	.286
Morris Watts	2002	1–2	.333	1–2	.333
John L. Smith	2003–2006	22–26	.458	12–20	.375
Mark Dantonio	2007–present	35–20	.636	20–12	.625

On the other hand, Dantonio’s record is considerably better than Alvarez’s at this point.  Dantonio’s total winning percentage is not overwhelmingly higher (.636 versus .606), but his record in the Big Ten is considerably higher (.625 versus .508).  This is why I (and many other Spartan fans) tend to get ahead of ourselves.  We want to believe that MSU is already where Wisconsin is under Bielema (.754 total winning percentage and .667 Big Ten winning percentage).  But that’s just not the case. 

The bottom line is that Spartan football fans have much to look forward to.  “At worst,” Dantonio is another Barry Alvarez, and he is building something that can be handed off to MSU’s version of Bielema.  Then the dilemma will be choosing the right person to hand the keys off to when the time comes.  At best, Dantonio may turn out to be Alvarez and Bielema all rolled into one.  Perhaps another 3 years and he could bring the program to elite status.

Panic!

Well, that was deflating, and it was sad to see that my worst case scenario played out.  The o-line was terrible: they made many mistakes and simply could not handle the athleticism of Notre Dame's defensive line.  The weakness of the o-line clearly hurt the running game (29 yards, ouch!) and may have also hurt Cousins' performance.  I'm not sure if Cousins played poorly because he feared getting hit, but he simply looked inaccurate and made some really bad decisions.  I have to confess that from the outset Cousins looked nervous and seemed to be headed towards repeating the performance of 2 years ago, against Notre Dame.

The defense actually performed pretty well, as I suspected.  They slowed Notre Dame's offense down most of the day.  But as I predicted, the Spartans were not going to stop them completely and their offense needed to produce points.   

I was also not impressed with the Spartan coaches.  The play calling was predictable all day and they went for too many trick plays.  The worst call was the fake field goal to end the half.  Everyone could see it coming, but worst of all, the Spartans could have brought the score to 21-13 at halftime, and they were getting the ball back to start the second half.  That was not a place for a trick play, especially because I saw this game as one that was going to be a relatively even hard-fought battle.  Every point was going to count. 

So overall, this was a disastrous game that could have been more competitive than it was.  Now, I won't completely panic, yet, particularly because the defense played so well against a very good offense.  The Spartans will not face another offense this explosive and talented again--until the bowl game, perhaps.  On the other hand, the offense is not nearly as explosive as I thought, largely because the o-line is worse than I expected and Cousins is not as cool under pressure as I hoped. Against inferior defenses, the Spartans will still score lots of points, but against Ohio State and Nebraska, they may be in for defensive battles.

Spartans vs Irish

Alrighty, so I didn't watch the game against FAU--had to go to a soccer tournament--and so I wasn't able to share thoughts on that game.  Anyhoo, tomorrow's game is the biggy, so let's concentrate on that.

Folks, I won't mince words.  I'm a little nervous about Notre Dame.  They are 0-2, but they are an extremely talented team that should be 2-0.  Last week against Michigan (yes I watched that game because I was home by that point) they dominated both lines of scrimmage.  They are big and strong along both lines.  I can understand them looking dominant against Michigan's DL, but Michigan's OL is supposed to be pretty good this year.  The Spartans' DL should do better than Michigan's DL did against the Irish, but I don't think our OL is any better than Michigan's.  So, I think we're going to have some trouble running the ball.  If we do have some success running the ball it will be because our backs are talented enough to create something out of nothing, or because by some miracle our line finally gels and they end up playing better than expected. 

Oddly enough, I do believe that the O-line is nearly rebuilt.  The guards are solid veterans (Foreman and McDonald) and the right tackle is a future star in the making (Burkland).  The only real concerns are center and left tackle.  So far, Blake Treadwell has played well at center, though it's been against inferior opponents.  I'm worried that he could get exposed by Notre Dame.  On the other hand, left tackle has been a concern even against inferior opponents.  So we're left hoping that the two cupcake games have given Dan France or Fou Fonoti enough experience to somehow step up at left tackle against Notre Dame.  If luck is on our side, Treadwell and France/Fonoti will step up, and we will be able to consider the O-line complete, and it will become another of the team's strengths, and the running games will rack up yards against Notre Dame, and a protected Cousins will throw for hundreds of yards.  If not, MSU will struggle to run the ball, and Cousins will get sacked multiple times, and MSU will have to hope that the defense can keep the game close.

Will the defense match up well?  As I said, the Spartans' D-line should do pretty well against Notre Dame's O-line--or at least they should do better than Michigan's D-line.  The Spartans also have better linebackers than Michigan and so they should do better against Notre Dame's running game than Michigan. The Spartan secondary should also be better than Michigan's, so they should match up better against Notre Dame's receivers than Michigan.  But the bottom line is that MSU won't completely shut down Notre Dame.  In fact, I expect the Irish to make fewer mistakes against MSU than they made the last two weeks, and consequently, Notre Dame should end up scoring more points even as MSU does a better job of slowing them down.  In other words, Notre Dame will likely rack up fewer yards this week but it will score more points.

That means MSU must score points to keep up.  So the key to the game comes back to MSU's offensive line.  If the line steps up, MSU will keep up and may even be unstoppable.  If not, MSU could be routed.  Like I said, I think the O-line is close to being ready, so I think MSU will score its fair share of points.  So my ultimate prediction is a high-scoring battle that the Spartans win because they have a senior quarterback that will make fewer mistakes than Notre Dame's sophomore quarterback.

Final score: MSU 37 - ND 33



 

Some Things to Look for this Saturday

As Quetzal discussed earlier, the Spartans are expected to dominate Florida Atlantic, this Saturday.  Florida Atlantic may actually be a little better than Youngstown State, but the Spartans really need to show that they have solved some of the problems that appeared in last week's game.  In particular, here are some of the things that I hope to see fixed:

- The offensive line must show that they are at least making solid progress. I don't expect perfection, but they really looked like a liability last week--bad enough to cost the Spartans several games.  The Spartans shuffled some linemen around this week, and hopefully that will make a difference.  Personally, I think the only real question mark on the OL is the left tackle spot.  The rest of the line just needs time to gel, but left tackle may actually be missing the required talent.  Basically, it's up to Dan France and Fou Fonoti, both of whom appear to have the athletic ability but perhaps not the necessary experience.
- Max Bullough seems to be a legitimate star at linebacker--though I'm a little worried about his speed--and Chris Norman should be solid--though I didn't see him make enough plays last week.  Otherwise, the other outside linebacker seems to be in the same quandary as the left tackle position.   The requisite talent could be missing.  Denicos Allen is now considered the starter, and hopefully we'll see him step up this week and allay my concerns.  Overall, I think the entire linebacker unit needs to look sharper this week.
- Cousins had great stats last week, but there were a few throws where I felt he did not look like a fifth year senior.  One of the throws actually should have been intercepted, and against better teams it probably will be.  Mistakes are unavoidable, but there are also those mistakes that even a bonehead like me can see unfolding from a mile away.  I don't want to see Cousins making those kinds of mistakes (especially against weak teams) because it leads me to believe that he will make a lot of mistakes when he faces a defense that really applies a lot of pressure (e.g., Ohio State, Nebraska, possibly even Michigan).
- The secondary looked good for about 75% of the time.  The other 25% they looked pedestrian.  I would like to see them play a complete game this week.
- The defensive line did not look dominant against a weak team last week--perhaps because YSU was getting rid of the ball quickly.  Nevertheless, they need to start playing as if they are the strength of the defense--as they're supposed to be.  If the DL does not dominate this year, the Spartans won't win the Big Ten.  I need to see some sacks this week.

Florida Atlantic University

This Saturday, the Spartans face Florida Atlantic University.  FAU is another weaker team, which we should expect the Spartans to dominate. Last week FAU was crushed by Florida (41-3). The gators held FAU to an embarrassing 63 yards of offense in the first half. What's to stop us from doing something similar? I am looking for the Spartans to do something similar to what Florida did to FAU. Give it to the running backs and let them run circles around the defense. Gator running backs Jeff Demps and Chris Rainey combined for 184 yards last Saturday. With MSU having some of the most talented running backs in the nation we should look for a similar result. The FAU secondary did manage solid results, however, racking up 3 interceptions against Florida.  Still, Cousins is pretty good at avoiding interceptions.  He didn't throw any interceptions last week.  If for some reason the Spartans' passing game struggles, the running game should still be able to pull this one out.  Hopefully, the O-line will play better this week and MSU's running backs will look a much better than against Youngstown State.

Post-game thoughts by the numbers

As previously reported the spartans certainly did not impress as we all hoped they would. They had a remarkably slow start, which they can't afford when playing against their higher ranked opponents such as upcoming Notre Dame. So here are some of the stats showing the pros and the cons of last night's game.

CONS
- MSU was having trouble with the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. they lost 25 yards rushing and YSU only lost 15.
-The spartans had 8 penalties for 55 yards.
-MSU wasn't solid on 3rd down: only 3/7.
-The penguins managed to get over 200 yards of offense.

PROS
-MSU was 4/5 in the red zone.
-The Spartans had about 400 yards of offense.
-B.J cunningham had a remarkable performance with 9 catches (putting him close to the all time record) for 130 yards and a TD.
-The running game showed dominance (159 yards) despite the lost yards.

All in all, the spartans still put away YSU. However, the fashion in which they did it was no doubt sloppy. I was hoping to see a performance similar to that of Wisconsins against UNLV. A rough start to the season but things should get better.

Thoughts on the Game

Well, the Spartans won, but it's hard to feel really good about this victory.  The Spartans were supposed to dominate this one, but they just could not put YSU away until the last minutes of the fourth quarters.  Overall, this was a sloppy performance.  And if YSU could have avoided some mistakes of its own, the game could have been a lot closer.
       Now, it's not time to panic.  This was the first game of the season against what was supposed to be a very weak team.  It's hard not to get overconfident in games like this--heck, I could feel the overconfidence flowing through my own body.  A bigger factor for the MSU's poor showing, however, is probably the fact that they were trying to win with a limited playbook.  You don't want to show all your tricks against a weak team because it makes it easier for a good team (like Notre Dame in 2 weeks) to scout and prepare for you. A final important factor that I'll mention is the death of Mark Dantonio's father.  That kind of loss would affect anyone's performance.  Coaches are human.
       On to more specific observations:
- Few guys played as well as they're capable of playing.  B.J. Cunningham was tremendous.  He needed 10 receptions to break the all time reception record at MSU and he ended up catching 9 (for 130 yards).  I figured he wouldn't break the record until about the third game of the season.  He should easily break it next week and he looks like he is going to have a huge year.
- Another guy that played really well was cornerback Darqueze Dennard.  He was all over the field making great tackles and breaking up passes.  He's only a sophomore and so he looks like he's going to be a star.
- Max Bullough played well at linebacker.  He made 15 tackles and seemed to always be near the action.  There were a few times where I found myself wishing he had more speed, but overall, I think he should be an adequate replacement for Greg Jones.
- I thought the offensive line looked problematic.  They had some penalties called against them and they had trouble opening running lanes for the running backs.  Cousins also seemed to get pressured quite a bit.  I had hoped that they would at least look dominant against YSU, but that has me worried for the rest of the season.  This group will have to grow up quickly, or the Spartans will be lucky to go 8-4.
- The whole team was kind of sloppy.  The offensive line killed drives with mistakes and the defense extended YSU drives with mistakes.
- The defense did not look impressive.  The linebackers were OK, but the defensive backs had to make too many tackles.  The defensive line didn't look as dominant as I had hoped.  Worthy looked like a first rounder during some plays, but he disappeared for much of the game.  Gholston almost looked like a freshman out there.  The defensive line is going to need to grow up quickly, if MSU is going to have any chance against teams like Wisconsin.
- Finally, Kirk Cousins looked great at times, but there were times when I was thinking, "oh man, he doesn't look much better than last year."  He played well last year, but for MSU to get through their horrible schedule this year, Cousins is going to have to become a superstar.

Some Key Things to Look for in Tonight's Game

As Quetzal reported earlier, MSU should handily win their game today against YSU--if they don't...oh lordy, let's not consider that possibility.  In fact, the Spartans should have the game put away by halftime, and thus this should be one of the less exciting games of the season.  Still, there are some key things we should look for that may help us understand how the rest of the season will go.  Here's a list of things I'll be watching for:

- Of course, I want to see that the offensive line will be good.  They should be opening up big running lanes and giving Cousins lots of time to pass.  They should also limit mistakes--few penalties.
- The linebackers need to look like they are not much of drop-off from last year's brilliant starters.  I want to see them flying to the ball and making few mistakes.
- I would like to see Cousins and Baker look brilliant.  I would like them to put up Heisman-like numbers.
- If this is a blowout, then back-up quarterback, Maxwell, should get some playing time.  I want to see him do really well.  If Cousins gets injured, I want to know that Maxwell won't be a liability.  Plus, I want to know that the Spartans will be in good hands next year.
- I want to see that Jerel Worthy will be a top 10 draft pick.  He really needs to dominate in this game.
- There are many more things to hope for in this game, but the last thing I really really hope to see is William Gholston dominating.  I want to know that he actually will be pressuring quarterbacks all season long.

Welcome Quetzal

You may have noticed a post from Quetzal a little while ago.  He is 14-year-old Spartan football fan whom I have recruited to contribute to this blog.  For now, he will try to contribute a weekly report of the upcoming opponent, and he may also provide his thoughts on the results of games.  Welcome, Quetzal.

Youngstown State Should be an Easy Win for Spartans

This week the Spartans will battle the Youngstown State penguins from the Missouri valley conference. This should be an easy win for the Spartans considering that YSU went 3-8 last season. YSU is also a young team. They have 49 new players added to there roster this year. However, the penguins will have fourteen seniors on the roster. QB Kurt Hess threw over 2,000 yards last season as a freshman, and junior running back Jamiane Cook rushed for over 1,000 yards on 241 carries and scored 11 times. The penguins might also be lacking in the offensive line as they have no seniors on that unit. The Penguin's offense was moderately successful last year, averaging 25 points a game. The defense, however, was less successful. Only 3 players had interceptions last season, and only one player is returning from the starting secondary. YSU has has a difficult time in the fourth quarter. They had the lead going into the fourth quarter in 11 games but only won three of those games. Interestingly, Dantonio once coached at Youngstown State. He was the defensive coordinator from 1986 to 1990. In the end this should be a blowout game. MSU will have no excuse if they don't blowout YSU by at least 30 points.