2 Key Lessons From this Disappointing Season

We have a bye this week, so I thought I'd take the time to reflect on 2 key lessons we can learn from this disappointing season.  Of course, we all know that the passing game was completely replaced this season: the quarterback, the receivers, the tight ends. Most of us saw that coming, and most people expected some growing pains. But I don't think any of us thought those losses would hurt the team this much. Well, now we all know better, and hopefully the coaches know better. And that brings us to the first key lesson: the coaches need to do a better job of anticipating those perfect storms of talent loss.

Coaches have to keep an eye out for those situations where the team could end up thin at key positions, especially skilled positions which take longer to develop than other positions. Quarterback, receiver, and tight end must always be well-stocked. The Spartans made a critical mistake with the 2011 recruiting class when they brought in only one clear receiver, Juwan Caeser -- who hasn't played at all this year. Andre Sims was a part of that class, and while he is now playing receiver, it appears he was originally recruited to play cornerback. In fact, Sims and Lippett's development as receivers may have been delayed by the fact that both were origially slated to play on defense.

The quarterback position did not suffer the depth problem quite as much. The Spartans have 3 talented scholarship quarterbacks and several upper-class walk-ons. The bigger problem at quarterback is game experience. Which brings up key lesson number 2 of this horrible season: get your future starters into as many games as possible. 

I remember thinking that last year.  There were a few blowouts where Cousins stayed in the game well into the 4rth quarter, and I remember wondering, "why not get Maxwell in there, it's not like you're protecting his redshirt?" In fact, Maxwell only made 26 throws in 2011. That tells me that the coaches just hadn't thought much about getting key players ready for 2012. We can see the same thing with the receivers. Fowler did get some meaningful playing time the last 2 years, but Lippett only had 4 catches in 2011 and Mumphery only 2.

You can't help but worry that the coaches may make the same mistake in future years. Next year, I could see them having problems with running backs. If Bell leaves early for the NFL, next year's running backs will be relatively inexperienced. Thankfully, running back doesn't take as much time to develop as quarterback and receiver (as Iowa shows every year), but the coaches should still be trying to get next year's potential starters a little more playing time.

Another potential trouble spot is cornerback. Folks, Darqueze Dennard looks like a first or second round draft pick to me and that makes it likely he will leave at the end of this season. That could leave the Spartans thin at the position. So the coaches need to be thinking about that possibility and they need to be communicating with Dennard so that they can plan accordingly.

Finally, after what we've gone through this year, I'll be upset during the 2013 season if the coaches don't play the backup quarterback more often (whoever that turns out to be), especially during blowouts. If the team is up 3 or 4 touchdowns late in the third quarter, why not let the backup play the rest of the game? I don't want the 2014 season to be a repeat of this season, and so I'd like to see the backup get at least 50 pass attempts throughout the 2013 season. 

Thoughts on Nebraska Game

This feels like the most painful loss I can remember. The refs were terrible, but they were terrible both ways. It was basically a good game, a classic. But it was a painful classic.

Offense

Man, I got this one right. The offense finally did something.

The O-line looked pretty good. They are gelling, though France had his weak moments at left tackle.

Bell cashed in on the decent line play and some good calls by Roushar.

Maxwell, played OK, and put some passes on the money that could have changed the outcome of the game, if the receivers had caught them.

The inconsistency of the receivers reared its ugly head. They had some key drops. Where is Burbridge?

The tight ends are not doing much. Dion Sims is not back to normal.

But overall, the offense played well enough to win.

Defense

What a time for the offense and defense to mismatch their performances. The defense was solid most of the time, but they got burned on too many big plays. I hate to single guys out, but Gholston made several key mistakes. He lost contain too often and allowed several big plays to his side.

The younger secondary players made critical mistakes (e.g., Hicks' late hit out of bounds, and who left that Nebraska receiver wide open on 4rth and 9?). Critical mistakes at terrible times.

Darqueze Dennard looked like a first round pick in this game. I hate to say it, but he will be gone at the end of this year. The Spartans could have their 2 starting corners going in the top 2 rounds. That's bad for next year, but good for recruiting. Dantonio may need to recruit another standout corner for the 2013 class.

Coaches

They called a pretty good game. I mean, Nebraska basically won because they had 4 huge plays. Most of the time, MSU was in control.

They probably did get too conservative at the end. But I would have done the same thing, so I can't really complain.

Upshot

The Spartans should have a good chance to win their last 2 games, and they should end up in a bowl game, as long as the offense does not regress. Nonetheless, it's now easy to declare this season a near perfect failure. Things could not have gone much worse.

As for the longer term future, this game suggests a few things.  First, it shows you how hard it is to stop the spread. MSU has been as dominant on defense as any team can be, and they could not overcome Taylor Martinez. I think the Spartans should start moving towards more of a spread offense. Running quarterbacks add that extra element of advantage. When done correctly, it's impossible to stop. More importantly, spread offenses don't require elite O-line talent. If MSU can't recruit that kind of talent, they need to consider moving in that direction. Under Dantonio, I don't think MSU has ever had the O-line talent to properly run a pro-style offense. I'm not talking Oregon or Rich Rodriguez kind of spread. But MSU should start incorporating more spread elements. Shoot, even the NFL is moving towards more spread elements.

Next year, MSU will have their best O-line under Dantonio, if they still struggle on offense, then the writing is on the wall.

Preview of Nebraska Game

Just a week ago I would have said this game has the makings of a blowout, as in, the Spartans were going to get blown out. After the Wisconsin game I have more confidence. This will still be a tough game, but here's why I think the Spartans should win.

Defense

MSU's defense is really starting to look elite. They looked better last week than they did against Michigan, and I expect them to continue their improvement this week.  It's just too bad the offense is so incompetent this year. If the offense had scored just 2 touchdowns a game, this team would have been nearly undefeated.

On the other hand, this could be the best offense MSU has faced this season. Nebraska is scoring almost 40 points a game, and they are talented and relatively balanced. I can't see the D doing to Nebraska what it did to Michigan and Wisconsin, but I do think they'll be able to keep them under 21 points.

Offense

The theme is the same as it has been all season. It's up to the offense to win the game. If they play like they have most of the year, fuggedabout it. If they play like they did at the end of the Wisconsin game, the Spartans should comfortably win this one.  

Nebraska's D has actually struggled this year, so the Spartans should be able to score more points against them than against Michigan and Wisconsin's Ds.  

I actually expect the O-line to look pretty good. I felt that they were starting to gel in the Wisconsin game. Left tackle still needs to be resolved, and hopefully Dan France looks better this week.  

If the O-line puts things together, I expect Bell to have a good game. That should make Maxwell's job a little easier and consequently I expect Maxwell to look pretty good this week. His receivers are playing well now, Dion Sims and LT are nearly at full strength, and the line is blocking better. He has to step it up this week. And I think he will.

In short, the offense will have it's first complete performance of the season, and that will be good enough for the victory.

Coaches

I felt that Nebraska's coaches outcoached the MSU coaches last year. One thing I noticed was that the Nebraska secondary took away MSU's receiving advantage by engaging in aggressive bump and run coverage that often turned into defensive holding. I don't know if the MSU coaches saw that, but they should have been all over the refs about that. 

The other annoying thing was how Roushar kept trying to run outside the tackles. That strategy failed over and over because Nebraska had extremely fast outside linebackers like Lavonte David. The Spartan coaches just flat out failed to adjust in that game, and it cost them. In fact, Nebraska adapted much better, running between the tackles to greater effect than MSU.

I hope the Spartan coaches are ready to go in this game because the Nebraska coaches will be. The Spartan coaches better recognize that Nebraska is not above bending the rules.

Upshot

MSU has a talent edge and no longer has the excuse that the receivers are dropping the ball. You can now clearly see the explosive potential of the offense, but it needs to be unleashed. I think I'm ready to stop being conservative on offense. I think the MSU coaches are too, and that's why I pick MSU to win this game.

Final score: MSU 24  Nebraska 17

Thoughts on Wisconsin Game

Folks, I came within a whisker of giving up completely on this season. But they did it. They took that next step and made me look like a genius this week. Woohoo! Had they kicked the extra point at the end, I would have had the score exactly right.

Offense

Was mostly infuriating, especially after Wisonsin's botched punt. But they looked good at times, especially in their last 2 drives, when it counted most.

Maxwell did not look particularly good, until those last 2 drives. His accuracy is just not where it should be by now. I just hope the last 2 drives are a sign of things to come.

The O-line is improving, but they did get too many penalties. Left tackle is the one big weakness on the line. Dan France really struggled today.

The receivers are catching the ball now. Lippett is starting to emerge. Fowler and Mumphery looked OK. Where was Burbridge? The emergence of the receivers is one reason I'm upset about the futility of the offense. The drops helped explain the futility in the first few games of the season, but now the receivers are starting to play well.

Perhaps the new excuse is the weakness of the tight ends. Dion Sims is clearly not at full strength and LT had that critical fumble. At least you can clearly see their potential. But the Spartans need more than potential right now.

Bell is doing what he can, but the line to needs to get better.

Defense

Another stellar performance against an offense that was putting up points in past weeks. As I said in my preview, I think this defense is reaching its peak. Guys like Gholston and Denicos Allen are starting to look like they did last year. Johnny Adams also seems to have gotten past giving up the long bomb.

Special Teams

No big mistakes.

Coaches

It did seem like the coaches were too conservative in this game, until the last 2 drives. But I too felt like being conservative, so I didn't disagree with many of their play calls. I did think they should run the ball more on that drive after the botched punt. They should have tried to move themselves into better field goal range, rather than trying to go for the first down.

Upshot

The victory feels good, and it should provide a good shot of momentum to this team. But the Spartans have 2 tough games ahead of them. I have more confidence that they can win those, but they will be battles. Most importantly, I want to see the offense continue to improve. I want to see if what they did in their last 2 drives was a fluke, or if they can play like that the rest of the season.

Preview of Wisconsin Game

Well, here is another opportunity for the Spartans to turn their season around. After several disappointing weeks in a row, I shouldn't have any hope. And yet I do. Here's why.

Offense

I'm really optimistic about the O this week. I feel like they are so close to putting things together. They get Dion Sims back this week, we're finally seeing some consistency out of the receivers, and even the O-line is starting to look functional.

Make no mistake, Wisconsin's defense is decent, so the Spartans will still struggle to score points. But they should score enough points to win the game if the following things unfold:

Maxwell plays like he did against OSU.
The receivers are better (even slightly better) this week than they were last week.
Bell gets to 100 yards.
Sims and Lawrence Thomas grab 9 catches between them.

Defense

I am hoping that what we saw on defense last week against Michigan is a sign that the defense is starting to peak. I realize they were playing with a lot of emotion because it was a rivalry game. But this is another rivalry game, and so I expect the same level of intensity.

If the D can play like last week, Wisconsin won't score much more than Michigan did. That will give the Spartan O a solid chance to win the game.

Special teams

This will be a close game, so mistakes on special teams will be very costly. There can be no fumbles.  And perhaps most importantly, Conroy must hit his field goal attempts.

Coaches

They are not making good decisions in close games. They have to recognize when the passing game is not working. If you have the lead late in the game, and if you have not been completing over 50% of your passes, then forget about being balanced and unpredictable. Do not throw on first or second down. It's better to try your luck running the ball against a 9-man front, than to try to get lucky by going for a pass that has a low probability of being completed. At least if you're running the ball, you're killing some clock.  If you're driving the ball late in the game and you're about to take the lead with either a field goal or touchdown, run the ball as much as possible to kill the clock.

Prediction

MSU starts to turn its season around this week.

Final score: MSU 17  Wisconsin 13

Thoughts on Roushar

Folks, I don't like to talk about replacing coaches because, of course, human beings are involved. It's a serious matter, and fans often forget that. Moreover, who am I to suggest that someone should be replaced? Who are any of us?

Look, Dan Roushar knows more about football than I'll ever know, and we have to keep in mind that the Spartans have not been as talented on offense during the Dantonio era as many people would like to believe. This year's offense was decimated by graduations and injuries, and the Spartans have never had the o-line talent they've needed. This was going to be a tough offense to manage.

Ironically, I think next year's offense will be loaded. The pieces are coming together: depth and talent at receiver, depth and talent on the o-line, depth and talent at tight end, depth and talent at running back, and best of all, a senior quarterback. So Roushar may finally have the pieces to succeed...somewhat.

You see, I think Roushar is an OK coordinator. He's not as terrible as this year suggests, but, he's also not outstanding. The Indiana game made me realize that. Indiana's first year offensive coordinator looked pretty good, and it made me wonder if MSU could find a guy like that. Michigan also had me thinking about this. Michigan had a decimated receiver corps and they don't even have a running back as good as Bell, and yet they're scoring quite a few points a game. Part of that is Dennard Robinson, but part of it is UM's OC adapting to Dennard's talents. I realize UM pays their OCs quite a bit, and maybe that's the main issue.  Maybe MSU can't go out and hire an elite OC.

So what's the answer? I have no idea. I mean, I used to get upset with the Nardawg and look at how that turned out. Narduzi is now one of the top defensive coordinators in the country. Maybe Roushar just needs one more year and a talented o-line to start looking like a genius. Then again, maybe MSU will never be able to get the kind of o-line talent for Roushar to succeed at MSU. Maybe they need more of a spread offense to deal with the lack of elite talent on the o-line. I don't know. But next year will settle quite a bit of these things. MSU will be as talented on offense as it's ever been. If they continue to struggle next year, then it's time to make fundamental changes.

Of course, the problem with waiting until after the 2013 season to replace Roushar is that the Spartans have the opportunity in 2013 to make their run at a national championship. If everyone comes back, the defense will be elite and the offense will be the most loaded offense MSU has had in my lifetime. A decent offensive coordinator could make the difference.  So many things to weigh!

Thoughts on UM Game

Disclaimer: I made the mistake of trying to watch this game with friends and fam, which led to various reasons I had to miss chunks of the game. Anyway, here are my thoughts on what I was able to catch.

Offense

The o-line is still struggling to get a push and that hurt the running game. They did a better job today of pass protection, however. Overall, they did as good as they could do, considering the injuries.

Maxwell played better than last week, but he's got to work on not overthrowing receivers. That has produced 2 interceptions in the last 2 weeks.

The receivers continue to improve, but they did drop a couple that good receivers normally catch.

The running backs almost cost MSU the game. Bell and Caper were careless with the ball and they almost lost what would have been backbreaking fumbles.

Defense

They really showed a lot of heart in this one. They put forward the kind of effort that makes you stand up and clap.

As painful as this loss is, the defense gives me hope.  If everyone comes back next year, this will be a championship level defense. The only non-elite part of it will be the defensive tackles. But even there, they should be solid.

Special teams

MSU is really facing the perfect storm of scoring impotence this year. The struggling offense is complemented with a struggling kicker. Conroy missed a very key field goal again. His struggles could not have come at worse time.

Coaches

The defensive plan was brilliant. The fake field goal was brilliant.

The offensive play calling was better than last week, but still kind of disappointing. I wanted to see more clock-killing running plays in the final 2 drives, but the coaches went to the passing again. I admit that the play calling was largely a matter of preference. I think the calls that were made could be defended, so these are just my 2 cents.

Upshot

The next 3 games will likely go pretty much like this one. I just hope the Spartans are on the winning side of at least 1 of them.