I used to regularly write a post about how "surprises" have such a big influence on how the season is going to go. I figure it's a good time to revisit that theme because there are some key surprises that are massively influencing what is happening to the Spartans this season. Obviously, surprises can come in the form of injuries, but let me stick to surprises in player performances. Three areas that have surprised in a bad way this season are the O-line, running backs and the secondary.
Coming into the season, we thought that MSU was going to have its best O-line in the Dantonio era. And we can now safely say that this O-line is one of the leas effective of the last 3 years. Injuries have played a role, but almost all the starters are back now, and yet they have struggled in both the run game and pass protection. And sadly, the struggles could get magnified against Ohio State.
As for the running backs, we knew it would be tough to replace Jeremy Langford, but right now the only consistent RB has been Gerald Holmes, and he's been held back by the struggles of the O-line. I think Holmes has the potential to salvage the season for the running backs, but he is going to need help from the O-line, and perhaps just as importantly, he could use help from an explosive back (a lightning option, if you will). Somehow, the coaches ended up recruiting too many big backs, and no real speed backs. It's starting to become clear that their current group is limiting the playbook. They can't outrun defenders to the outside, so basically, all runs have to be between the tackles. That may be fine much of the time, but you need guys that can keep the defensive ends honest, guys that can add a few extra plays to your playbook. Whatever happened to Nick Tompkins?
As for the secondary, we knew they would struggle, but we didn't expect this much struggle. The safety position was supposed to be a strength, but the injury to RJ Williamson and the massive regression of Montae Nicholson have turned this area into a pretty sizable liability. At least Arjen Colquhoun has been a nice positive surprise. As I've said before, he could be really good by the end of the season. Hopefully, Nicholson will progress and hopefully Darian Hicks can solidify the other corner position, while Cox solidifies the other safety position. I don't expect them to revive the no-fly zone, but hopefully they can become serviceable.
Saturday, November 14, 2015
Tuesday, October 27, 2015
Shout out to these guys...
So I'll leave it to the rest of the media and blogosphere to praise guys like Connor Cook and Shilique Calhoun. Here I want to praise some guys that haven't received much attention but that seem set to make critical contributions the rest of the way.
I'll start with the guy who impressed me most in the Indiana game, and that would be Arjen Colquhoun. This guy started the season giving opposing receivers 10-yard cushions and now he is starting to flash some Trae Waynes type of abilities. He's fast and has developed some stickiness. He still has work to do, and maybe the Indiana game was just a flash in the pan, but if he continues to progress, don't be surprised if he gets noticed by NFL scouts by the end of the season.
I've praised Gerald Holmes before ... and I'll bring him up again. He is getting close to looking like the go-to back. He still has work to do, but I still see him as the most decisive of the backs, and he seems to also have the best vision. If the O-line can start to more consistently open some holes, I think Holmes could take off in the remainder of the season.
Jermaine Edmondson is making some contributions, particularly as a guy who's being asked to blitz and play zone coverage. It would be a great stroke of luck for MSU, if Edmondson could begin to make Colquhoun-like contributions at corner or safety -- he's been looking like a safety to me.
When Benny McGowan moved to center, the O-line seemed to function a little better. He deserves credit for his versatility.
I saw Joel Heath making some plays, and if he can continue to do so the remainder of the season, this D-line could indeed become one of the best in MSU history.
Moving guys around
I believe I saw Montae Nicholson make another critical mistake and I'm starting to wonder if the Spartan coaches shouldn't start thinking about moving him to wide receiver. Perhaps not this season, since depth is such a concern, but certainly for next year. I don't know that he has the aggressiveness to be a safety, but he definitely has the tools to be an elite receiver. The Spartans will be very thin at receiver next year, so a switch of this kind could be beneficial to all.
I'd like to see Demetrious Cox playing safety. In my mind, he's one of the top safeties in the conference, but he doesn't quite have the stickiness to be a top cornerback, at this point. At the same time, while I love what the freshmen safeties are doing, having 2 of them back there is a concern. Hopefully, Hicks will return soon, and that will allow Cox to stay at safety.
I'll start with the guy who impressed me most in the Indiana game, and that would be Arjen Colquhoun. This guy started the season giving opposing receivers 10-yard cushions and now he is starting to flash some Trae Waynes type of abilities. He's fast and has developed some stickiness. He still has work to do, and maybe the Indiana game was just a flash in the pan, but if he continues to progress, don't be surprised if he gets noticed by NFL scouts by the end of the season.
I've praised Gerald Holmes before ... and I'll bring him up again. He is getting close to looking like the go-to back. He still has work to do, but I still see him as the most decisive of the backs, and he seems to also have the best vision. If the O-line can start to more consistently open some holes, I think Holmes could take off in the remainder of the season.
Jermaine Edmondson is making some contributions, particularly as a guy who's being asked to blitz and play zone coverage. It would be a great stroke of luck for MSU, if Edmondson could begin to make Colquhoun-like contributions at corner or safety -- he's been looking like a safety to me.
When Benny McGowan moved to center, the O-line seemed to function a little better. He deserves credit for his versatility.
I saw Joel Heath making some plays, and if he can continue to do so the remainder of the season, this D-line could indeed become one of the best in MSU history.
Moving guys around
I believe I saw Montae Nicholson make another critical mistake and I'm starting to wonder if the Spartan coaches shouldn't start thinking about moving him to wide receiver. Perhaps not this season, since depth is such a concern, but certainly for next year. I don't know that he has the aggressiveness to be a safety, but he definitely has the tools to be an elite receiver. The Spartans will be very thin at receiver next year, so a switch of this kind could be beneficial to all.
I'd like to see Demetrious Cox playing safety. In my mind, he's one of the top safeties in the conference, but he doesn't quite have the stickiness to be a top cornerback, at this point. At the same time, while I love what the freshmen safeties are doing, having 2 of them back there is a concern. Hopefully, Hicks will return soon, and that will allow Cox to stay at safety.
Tuesday, October 13, 2015
At my signal...unleash hell
The Spartans are wounded and Michigan looks strong. But I watched each of their games this week and I saw that the Spartans can match up well with Michigan, and that the Spartans are close to putting it all together. They need to be sharp, intense, and ready to stop the inside trap -- Harbaugh's favorite play, it seems. And they have to do it for 4 quarters!
It's time to take this season to the next level. It's time to unleash hell!
It's time to take this season to the next level. It's time to unleash hell!
Saturday, October 3, 2015
Hope There's a Reasonable Explanation for the Conservate Play Calling
OK folks, one way to look at an ugly win (apart from just taking it and being grateful) is to consider that many variables affect the way coaches prepare for games. For example, coaches have to be worried about revealing too much as they get ready for the really important games. The coaches don't want to show UM and OSU too much, and that's why they significantly limit their playbook in games that should be easier to win.
I hope that something like that is what's going on here, because this game was almost lost by the coaching staff. It appears that the coaches decided that they could win this game with just a power running game. They were right to some extent (the Spartans were running the ball pretty well), but they weren't completely, and it almost cost them.
It's tough to accept decisions like that because the Spartans have their most talented passing game in...perhaps ever: a senior quarterback that may get drafted in the first round, 4 senior receivers, and talented tight ends. They should not be struggling in the passing game, they should not be nervous about their passing game. That's why I'm guessing that the coaches are saving their passing plays for another game.
If so, they should be careful. They should be wary of getting themselves upset, and they don't want their passing game to be out of game day practice. Those guys need some reps.
Other thoughts
The secondary continues to struggle. Nicholson is not showing the aggressiveness he needs to be an effective safety, and Hicks struggled in one on one coverage. At least Colquhoun seems to be making progress. He did struggle, but he has shown improvement. I see the makings of effective secondary, but Williamson will have to get healthy, Cox will probably have to take over Nicholson, and Hicks and Colquhoun will have to continue getting better each week.
Injuries. I love the resilience of the o-line, but folks, MSU has nearly stretched its depth to the limit. I can't see them going far, if they don't get Conklin and Keiler back, and or if Machado doesn't improve in a hurry.
I hope that something like that is what's going on here, because this game was almost lost by the coaching staff. It appears that the coaches decided that they could win this game with just a power running game. They were right to some extent (the Spartans were running the ball pretty well), but they weren't completely, and it almost cost them.
It's tough to accept decisions like that because the Spartans have their most talented passing game in...perhaps ever: a senior quarterback that may get drafted in the first round, 4 senior receivers, and talented tight ends. They should not be struggling in the passing game, they should not be nervous about their passing game. That's why I'm guessing that the coaches are saving their passing plays for another game.
If so, they should be careful. They should be wary of getting themselves upset, and they don't want their passing game to be out of game day practice. Those guys need some reps.
Other thoughts
The secondary continues to struggle. Nicholson is not showing the aggressiveness he needs to be an effective safety, and Hicks struggled in one on one coverage. At least Colquhoun seems to be making progress. He did struggle, but he has shown improvement. I see the makings of effective secondary, but Williamson will have to get healthy, Cox will probably have to take over Nicholson, and Hicks and Colquhoun will have to continue getting better each week.
Injuries. I love the resilience of the o-line, but folks, MSU has nearly stretched its depth to the limit. I can't see them going far, if they don't get Conklin and Keiler back, and or if Machado doesn't improve in a hurry.
Saturday, September 26, 2015
Play the Guys that Deliver
As you can easily figure out, I rarely post on this blog anymore -- too much work and stuff. But every now and then things happen that move me enough to vent with a post few will read.
Anyway, today I am moved by the observation that MSU is not always going with its best players. There's politics in sports. Coaches make promises to seniors, they make promises to highly touted freshmen. But sometimes, you need to break those promises when someone else gives you a better chance to win.
Gerald Holmes got me thinking about this. He really looks like the most effective running back on the team. He is as strong and fast as the other running backs, but he also seems to have better vision and clearly he is more decisive. Maybe it was just this game? I don't think so. I thought Holmes also looked best in the Spring. Holmes may not hit as many long runs as Madre London, but he is the more consistent back per carry.
Montae Nicholson is not playing like I anticipated. He is often out of position, takes bad angles, and his amazing athleticism is not translating into tackling ability on the open field. I think he has a bright future, but right now I see him struggling, and I see Demetrious Cox as a more solid option at safety.
Darian Hicks looks like he has more of the tools to be a lock down corner than the other options currently available to MSU. He is more fluid and seems to stick to his receivers better than the other corners.
There may be others, but these are the players that led me to write this post.
Maybe I'm just a misinformed couch potato, who doesn't get to see everything that goes into decisions on playing time. But I do think that coaches often let politics or biases influence who they play. And I hate to say it, but the way Michigan is playing, the Spartans can't afford to have coaching biases hold the team back, even if the bias only hurts a little.
Anyway, today I am moved by the observation that MSU is not always going with its best players. There's politics in sports. Coaches make promises to seniors, they make promises to highly touted freshmen. But sometimes, you need to break those promises when someone else gives you a better chance to win.
Gerald Holmes got me thinking about this. He really looks like the most effective running back on the team. He is as strong and fast as the other running backs, but he also seems to have better vision and clearly he is more decisive. Maybe it was just this game? I don't think so. I thought Holmes also looked best in the Spring. Holmes may not hit as many long runs as Madre London, but he is the more consistent back per carry.
Montae Nicholson is not playing like I anticipated. He is often out of position, takes bad angles, and his amazing athleticism is not translating into tackling ability on the open field. I think he has a bright future, but right now I see him struggling, and I see Demetrious Cox as a more solid option at safety.
Darian Hicks looks like he has more of the tools to be a lock down corner than the other options currently available to MSU. He is more fluid and seems to stick to his receivers better than the other corners.
There may be others, but these are the players that led me to write this post.
Maybe I'm just a misinformed couch potato, who doesn't get to see everything that goes into decisions on playing time. But I do think that coaches often let politics or biases influence who they play. And I hate to say it, but the way Michigan is playing, the Spartans can't afford to have coaching biases hold the team back, even if the bias only hurts a little.
Tuesday, November 18, 2014
Effective Running Backs Come in all Shapes and Sizes
After decades of watching football I have come to the conclusion that effective running backs come in all shapes and sizes, and even speeds. I think most of us have a tendency to look for "prototypical" measureables in running backs, probably because we were influenced by certain events, or more particularly, certain players.
I used to think that running backs had to be 5' 8", 205 pounds, shifty, and fast as hell. Of course, that's because I grew up watching Barry Sanders. But since my days of watching Barry, I have seen effective running backs come in many shapes, sizes, and speeds.
At MSU we've had the "Barry" backs -- Ringer, Baker, Hill. We've also had outstanding power backs -- Bell, Duckett. And we've even had the in-between backs -- Jeremy Langford. Most of them were/are pretty fast, but not all of them. Bell and Duckett had wheels, but they didn't have elite speed. And while you can say that Duckett was effective in large part because of his power, I think Bell is more effective because of his intelligence. Bell is a powerful back, but the dominating performance he put on last night for Pittsburgh was more about his vision and the moves he's developed over the years. He displayed an amazing level of creativity.
The sad thing for recruiting is that it's tough to identify who is going to be a great running. In the first place, we are blinded by our biases, which develop when we watch our heroes. But it's also hard because many kids develop vision and creativity years after they commit -- look at Langford.
So what's the lesson? We and the coaches can't do much about the second problem, but we and they can do something about the first. They can consciously address their instinct to find the next Barry or the next Bell, and focus more on the kids that show good vision and creativity, regardless of their measureables.
I used to think that running backs had to be 5' 8", 205 pounds, shifty, and fast as hell. Of course, that's because I grew up watching Barry Sanders. But since my days of watching Barry, I have seen effective running backs come in many shapes, sizes, and speeds.
At MSU we've had the "Barry" backs -- Ringer, Baker, Hill. We've also had outstanding power backs -- Bell, Duckett. And we've even had the in-between backs -- Jeremy Langford. Most of them were/are pretty fast, but not all of them. Bell and Duckett had wheels, but they didn't have elite speed. And while you can say that Duckett was effective in large part because of his power, I think Bell is more effective because of his intelligence. Bell is a powerful back, but the dominating performance he put on last night for Pittsburgh was more about his vision and the moves he's developed over the years. He displayed an amazing level of creativity.
The sad thing for recruiting is that it's tough to identify who is going to be a great running. In the first place, we are blinded by our biases, which develop when we watch our heroes. But it's also hard because many kids develop vision and creativity years after they commit -- look at Langford.
So what's the lesson? We and the coaches can't do much about the second problem, but we and they can do something about the first. They can consciously address their instinct to find the next Barry or the next Bell, and focus more on the kids that show good vision and creativity, regardless of their measureables.
Monday, November 10, 2014
Review of OSU Game: We're Going to Need Obsession
Well folks, this one hurt. No getting around it. It hurt because it obviously kills our dreams of a national championship. And it hurts because it shows you that in the long term MSU will have a tough path to the national championship and even the B10 title.
The good news is that at least MSU showed they can score on a very good OSU defense. The offense was not overwhelmed and actually won the battle against OSU's defense. But the bad news is that offenses have now figured out how to beat a Narduzzi defense. The Spartan D is clearly struggling against offenses that use a lot spread elements. The secondary has also just plain blown too many coverages.
In the long run, Ohio State and Urban Meyer are now clearly focused on (and probably obsessed with) MSU. They will not overlook MSU, again. They will prepare a full year to make sure they beat MSU. That's what we saw in this game. We saw the results of a year-long adjustment by Meyer and OSU. Of course, Meyer was helped by the fact that Barrett may be the best quarterback in the country. I actually do think that MSU could have beat OSU with Braxton Miller. But JT Barrett is too accurate. That's what you need to beat a Narduzzi D.
So, now MSU needs to embark on its year-long adjustment. They must find a way to deal with spread offenses and with JT Barrett. They may want to start by looking at how Alabama handles all the spread-ish offenses it faces. They may want to even look at what Rich Rodriguez does to slow down teams like Oregon.
The coaches will have a lot of work to do. This could be the start of a grueling rivalry.
The good news is that at least MSU showed they can score on a very good OSU defense. The offense was not overwhelmed and actually won the battle against OSU's defense. But the bad news is that offenses have now figured out how to beat a Narduzzi defense. The Spartan D is clearly struggling against offenses that use a lot spread elements. The secondary has also just plain blown too many coverages.
In the long run, Ohio State and Urban Meyer are now clearly focused on (and probably obsessed with) MSU. They will not overlook MSU, again. They will prepare a full year to make sure they beat MSU. That's what we saw in this game. We saw the results of a year-long adjustment by Meyer and OSU. Of course, Meyer was helped by the fact that Barrett may be the best quarterback in the country. I actually do think that MSU could have beat OSU with Braxton Miller. But JT Barrett is too accurate. That's what you need to beat a Narduzzi D.
So, now MSU needs to embark on its year-long adjustment. They must find a way to deal with spread offenses and with JT Barrett. They may want to start by looking at how Alabama handles all the spread-ish offenses it faces. They may want to even look at what Rich Rodriguez does to slow down teams like Oregon.
The coaches will have a lot of work to do. This could be the start of a grueling rivalry.
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