Preview of Outback Bowl: MSU vs Georgia

We are now mere days away from seeing the Spartans play the Georgia Bulldogs in the Outback Bowl, and I can hardly wait.  This should be one of the most exciting bowl games of the season.  We're looking at two teams that are pretty evenly matched, and we're looking at two talented and well-coached teams.

Offensively, these teams are pretty even.  Georgia is ranked 32nd in term of total offense, averaging 32.2 points per game.  MSU is ranked 38th in the country, averaging 30.8 points per game.  Georgia is also ranked 32nd in the country in rushing offense, averaging 172.7 yards per game; while MSU is ranked 65th in the country, averaging 142.9 yards per game.  Georgia is ranked 35th in the country in passing, averaging 241.2 yards per game; while MSU is ranked 33rd in the country in passing, averaging 247.5 yards per game.

Defensively, these teams are also pretty even.  Georgia has the country's 17th ranked defense, while MSU has the 9th ranked defense.  Georgia's run defense is ranked 17th, allowing 103.4 yards per game; while MSU's run defense is ranked 18th, allowing 104.3 yards per game.  Georgia's passing defense is ranked 11th, allowing 165.1 yards per game; while MSU's passing defense is ranked 14th, allowing 168.4 yards per game.

Of course, these rankings don't tell the whole story.  These teams are playing in different conferences, so perhaps their stats cannot be validly compared.  MSU fans also know that over the last 5 games, MSU's running game and total offense have vastly improved.  Indeed, MSU put up 39 points on Wisconsin (which has one of the top defenses in the country) in the B1G championship game.  MSU fans also know that the Spartans' defensive numbers would look better if MSU had not played Wisconsin's top 4 offense twice this season.  On the other hand, surely there are things Georgia fans know that I don't know.  Surely they've seen their team play better than the way they played against LSU -- the one game I saw Georgia play this year.

So what's the takeaway?  Basically, it is that: it's hard to predict the outcome of this game.  In fact, I can't do much more than go with gut instincts on this one  -- there's just too much uncertainty.  If MSU was playing any Big Ten team this week, I would actually say the probabilities are clearly on the Spartans' side.  But Georgia is a top-tier SEC team that could be better than any Big Ten team, or at least it is no worse than the Big Ten's top 2 teams.  In fact, this game really should tell us a lot about where the Spartans are as a program.  If MSU can beat Georgia, I think that it will be a very good indication that MSU has become a top 10 program.  If MSU loses it's fifth bowl game in a row, it clearly shows that MSU has a lot farther to go than I thought.

So what do my guts say?  Well, they say that MSU is an excellent team that can compete with the best of the SEC teams -- save perhaps Alabama and LSU.  I think MSU has the advantage at key positions (particularly quarterback) and thus will win this game -- but it will be a thriller, not unlike the B1G championship.

Final prediction: MSU 37  Georgia 34

A Look at Next Year: Defensive Backs

Today, I will take a look at next year’s defensive backs.  Like most units, this unit should be pretty solid next year. 

5              Johnny Adams         CB            5-11         175          JR            Akron, Ohio - Buchtel

12            Dana Dixon              CB            6-2           170          SO           Detroit, Mich. - Renaissance

32            Mitchell White        CB            5-11         180          JR            Livonia, Mich. - Stevenson

33            Jeremy Langford     CB            5-11         205          RS FR      Wayne, Mich. - John Glenn

31            Darqueze Dennard  CB            5-11         185          SO           Dry Branch, Ga. - Twiggs County

36            Arjen Colquhoun     CB            6-0           187          FR            Windsor, Ontario - 

15            Trae Waynes           CB            6-0           165          FR            Kenosha, Wis. - Bradford

14            Tony Lippett            CB/WR    6-2           189          RS FR      Detroit, Mich. - Crockett

35            Chris Laneaux          DB           5-11         180          FR            Kalamazoo, Mich. - Portage Northern

39            Trenton Robinson   S              5-10         195          SR            Bay City, Mich. - Bay City Central

6              Mylan Hicks            S              5-11         191          RS FR      Detroit, Mich. - Renaissance

9              Isaiah Lewis            S              5-10         195          SO           Indianapolis, Ind. - Ben Davis

23            Jairus Jones             S              6-1           209          SO           Tampa, Fla. - Wharton

26            RJ Williamson         S              5-10         182          FR            Middletown, Ohio - Dunbar

27            Kurtis Drummond   S              6-1           196          RS FR      Masury, Ohio – Hubbard

As we can see from the list above, the only significant losses for next year are senior safety Trenton Robinson and Tony Lippett, who will be making the permanent move to wide receiver.  Make no mistake about it, Robinson will be a significant loss.  He was an excellent safety and the leader of the secondary, and he should have a decent shot at getting drafted in the NFL draft.  Nevertheless, the Spartans are bringing back all their starters at the remaining positions and they should have some pretty solid depth at defensive back. 

Isaiah Lewis will be back at strong safety.  Of course, Lewis took part in some heartbreaking plays this year, but overall, I thought he played pretty well.  As a junior, I think he will take another step towards solidness.  I expect him to become about as solid as Trenton Robinson was this year – can’t complain about that.  Apart from Lewis, the Spartans will also return all three of their backup safeties:  Dana Dixon, Jairus Jones, and Kurtis Drummond.  Dixon and Jones will be juniors, and Drummond will be a sophomore.  The Spartans also have guys who were once decent recruits.  Guys like Mylan Hicks and RJ Williamson.  Hopefully, at least one of these guys or one of the other backups will emerge as a star next year.  The Spartans are also in the running for some elite safety recruits in the class of 2012: Demetrious Cox and Jordan Diggs.  Both of these guys seem outstanding enough to earn some playing time as freshmen.  Hopefully the Spartans will get at least one of them to commit. 

As for cornerbacks, starters Johnny Adams and Darqueze Dennard will both be back next year.  Both played very well this year and both should be even better next year.  In fact, these two have the potential to be two of the Spartan’s best corners in recent memory.  The Spartans will also be returning backups Mitchell White and Jeremy Langford.  I cannot say that I recall seeing much of Langford, but White played well the few moments I can remember him playing.  The Spartans also have some interesting 2011 recruits who I suspect will step up and challenge for playing time next year.  Arjen Colquhoun and Trae Waynes are both big and both have under 4.4 speed.  The Spartans will also be bringing in two sound-looking prospects: Jermaine Edmondson and Ezra Robinson.  Both of these guys are rated as 3-star recruits, and they are both big and fast corners.  I don’t expect them to play much next year, but if there are injuries, these guys should provide decent depth.  You hate to see freshmen cornerbacks playing because they often get burned by more experienced wide receivers.  Still, if freshmen are going to play anywhere, it’s more frequently at the cornerback position.

A Look at Next Year: Linebackers

Been busy traveling around the Midwest, so posts will be more limited over the next 10 days.

Here I take a look at the linebacker situation for next year.  The bottom line is that Spartans are all set at linebacker for next year.  In fact, the Spartans should have one of the strongest linebacking units in the Big Ten and perhaps the country. 

49            TyQuan Hammock   LB            6-0           230          SO           Fort Wayne, Ind. - Bishop Luers

8              Lawrence Thomas   LB            6-3           275          FR            Detroit, Mich. - Renaissance

10            Chris Norman          LB            6-1           227          JR            Detroit, Mich. - Renaissance

42            Ty Hamilton            LB            6-0           230          RS FR      Fenton, Mich. - Fenton

41            Kyler Elsworth         LB            6-1           215          SO           Goodrich, Mich. - Goodrich

19            Danny Folino           LB            5-9           195          SO           Okemos, Mich. - East Lansing

43            Ed Davis                  LB          6-3           215          FR            Detroit, Mich. - Southeastern

40            Max Bullough          LB            6-3           245          SO           Traverse City, Mich. - St. Francis

48            Pat Rhomberg         LB            6-0           218          FR            Columbus, Ohio - Bishop Watterson

28            Denicos Allen          LB            5-10         220          SO           Hamilton, Ohio - Hamilton

47            Jeremy Gainer        LB            6-1           228          SO           Detroit, Mich. - Clarenceville

50            Steve Gardiner        LB            6-1           222          JR            Dublin, Ohio - Coffman

34            Taiwan Jones          LB            6-3           234          FR            New Baltimore, Mich. - Anchor Bay

45            Darien Harris          LB            6-0           206          FR            Silver Spring, Md. - DeMatha Catholic

As we can see in the list above, the Spartans have all their starters coming back.  And this is no mediocre group of starters.  Max Bullough and Denicos Allen will be back as juniors and I expect them to be two of the top linebackers in the Big Ten.  These guys are already stars, but they should be even better next year.  Chris Norman will be back as a senior.  He played well at times this year, but he really has yet to live up to his full potential.  He came in as a 4-star recruit and this year he was slowed down by injuries.  I’m hoping he becomes a breakout player in 2012.  If he does take that next step towards stardom, the Spartans could have one of the best linebacking units in the whole country.

The depth at linebacker is also outstanding.  The Spartans have several young players who look certain to become stars.  For starters, they have 5-star freshman Lawrence Thomas, who is as big as a defensive end but has the speed to play linebacker.  He could eventually move to defensive end, but the early signs are that the Spartans want to keep him at linebacker.  Another high-rated recruit is freshman Ed Davis.  He was a 4-star recruit who has shown good speed and explosiveness.  Sophomore Kyler Elsworth was once a walk-on, but he has played well enough to earn a scholarship and some playing time (when Norman was injured).  The Spartan coaches like Elsworth, so I expect big things out of him in the next few years.  Other guys with playing experience include TyQuan Hammock, Taiwan Jones, and Steve Gardiner. 

Finally, the Spartans are also bringing in some well-regarded recruits next year.  They are bringing in Bullough’s brother, Riley Bullough, and 4-star recruit Jamal Lyles, who is considered an athletic freak that could also play defensive end.  The Spartans are also in the running for David Perkins, who they consider to be a bigger version of Denicos Allen.  Lyles and Allen are so athletically outstanding that it would be no surprise to see them earn some playing time next year.  Riley Bullough comes from a football family and so he may have enough understanding of the game to also earn some playing time next year – remember that his brother, Max Bullough, played as a freshman.

So the takeaway is that the Spartans are loaded at linebacker -- so loaded, in fact, that they could be one of the best linebacking units in the country.  The only problem I could foresee with this unit is with injuries, but even then, the Spartans would need to lose like 3 guys in order to suffer a significant decline. 

Ohio State Finally Punished

I'm not one to post about other schools' business, but the NCAA finally punishing Ohio State for the various infractions they committed last year is kind of relevant to MSU.  According to ESPN:

"The penalties from the NCAA's infractions committee include a one-year bowl ban, nine lost scholarships during the next three years (three per year) and two years of probation. Former Buckeyes coach Jim Tressel also received a show-cause penalty from the NCAA, which makes any school that hires Tressel subject to penalties unless it proves why it should escape sanctions."

That doesn't seem all that severe to me, so I don't think it will have much direct influence on things like MSU's recruiting.  It might allow MSU to get maybe one more additional 4-star recruit per year (guys like Se'Von Pittman) than they otherwise would have.  But I'm sure Urban Meyer and OSU will find some way around these sanctions.  Where there might be more indirect influence is with perceptions.  Perhaps recruits will perceive that OSU is being punished more severely than it is, and so some recruits might think harder about going to a more stable place like MSU.  Man, if only these sanctions had come out a couple of weeks ago.  Maybe a guy like Pittman would have stayed committed to MSU.  Guess we'll never know for sure.

A Look at Next Year: Defensive Line

Continuing with a look at next year series, today I focus on the defensive line.  This unit has me a little worried, but before I talk about the concerns, let me focus on the strengths.

As we can see from the list below, the strength of the defensive line, for years to come, will be the defensive ends.  The Spartans are not graduating any defensive ends.  In fact, they are rather young at the position. 

44 Marcus Rush              DE       6-2          250         RS FR     

52 Denzel Drone             DE       6-2          262         SO          

93 Damon Knox             DE       6-4          274         FR           

55 Corey Freeman         DE       6-2          250         JR           

94 Taylor Calero            DE       6-3          245         RS FR     

91 Tyler Hoover             DE       6-7          290         JR           

92 Joel Heath                 DE       6-5          270         FR           

89 Shilique Calhoun       DE        6-4          220         FR           

2   William Gholston       DE         6-7          280         SO          

The Spartans will be bringing back their two emerging stars, Marcus Rush and William Gholston.  Barring injury, both of these guys should be even better next year.   The Spartans will also be bringing back some solid backups, including: Denzel Drone, Damon Knox, Corey Freeman, Taylor Calero, Tyler Hoover, Joel Heath, and Shilique Calhoun.  Joel Heath was the highest rated recruit (Scout gave him 4 stars), but all of these guys were well-regarded as recruits.  The Spartans also have a couple of other guys who could play defensive end: guys like 5-star recruit, Lawrence Thomas, and 2012 recruit Jamal Lyles.  It’s probably better to keep these guys at linebacker, but they could excel at defensive end if needed.

Now to defensive tackle.  This position actually has the potential to be the strongest position on the team next year . . . if Jerel Worthy comes back.  To me, Anthony Rashad White is a clone of Worthy, and I would love to see those two playing next to each other as seniors next year.  But if Worthy leaves, the Spartans will see a considerable decline at the interior of the defensive line and they will face some serious depth issues.    

81  James Kittredge               DL       6-4          270         SO          

69  Blake Pacheco                DL        6-1          264         SR           

87  Brandon Clemons            DL        6-3          262         FR           

99  Jerel Worthy                   DT        6-3          310         JR           

57  Johnathan Strayhorn        DT        6-0          272         SR           

56  Matt Ramondo                DT        6-5          328         FR           

65  Doug Curtis                     DT       6-2          250         JR           

97  Mark Scarpinato             DT       6-3          270         FR           

96  Kevin Pickelman             NT       6-4          288         SR           

58  Jordan Sanders               NT        6-1          288         RS FR     

98  Anthony Rashad White   NT        6-2          316         JR           

As we can see in the list above, the Spartans are already losing starter Kevin Pickelman and major contributor, Johnathan Strayhorn.  So if Worthy leaves, they will be losing their top 3 players at the interior of the defensive line.  As I mentioned, I think that White will step up and play well next year.  But apart from White, there isn’t anyone with much experience.  There is a lot of youth, which may help explain why so many of these guys are significantly underweight. 

The Spartans did recruit 3 defensive tackles in 2011 (Ramondo, Scarpinato, and Clemons) – perhaps that’s why they don’t appear to be going after any DTs in the 2012 recruiting class.  I get the sense that if the Spartans are going to have depth at DT, these are the guys they are going to have to rely on.  All of these guys were 3-star recruits and it’s not unheard of for redshirt freshmen to make big contributions (see Marcus Rush); but I hate to have to rely on chance here.  We don’t know if these guys will be able to add the proper weight and strength, and whether they’ll be able to handle the pressure. 

So the upshot is that the defensive line is all set at defensive end but uncertain at defensive tackle.  If Worthy comes back, the D-line will be strongest it’s been in a long, long time (since perhaps the days of Bubba Smith).  If not, then the Spartans will have to hope that several young guys emerge quickly.  I’d rather not have to rely on hope, so please, Jerel, come back for your senior year.  

A National Championship in 2013?

Leonidas (Leo) has been looking at how strong the various units will be next year, so I thought I'd look ahead to 2013.  Trust me, there's good reason to do this.  You see, if certain players live up to our expectations and if certain things break our way, then 2013 could be the best shot MSU has of winning a national championship under Mark Dantonio.

First off, lets look at the passing game. As Leo recently pointed out, Andrew Maxwell has the potential to be better than Cousins, by his senior year. That's saying something, considering the standards set by Cousins. The few times I've seen him play, Maxwell reminds me a lot of Andrew Luck. He is athletic, accurate, and shows a strong arm. In my mind, the only thing that could keep him from becoming a star is his decision making.  We did not see enough of him to know how he will handle good defenses.  We'll have to wait and see on that, but in the last decade, most of our quarterbacks (Stanton, Hoyer, Cousins) eventually turn out to be pretty good by their senior year.  If Maxwell develops the same way, MSU's passing game should be at it's peak in 2013.

Now what could really make the passing game more explosive than ever is the emergence of guys like Tony Lippett and Aaron Burbidge (and maybe guys like Monty Madaris and Kenny Lawler, if they commit). Those receivers should be pretty good by 2013.  Throw in the fact that Dion Sims will be a senior at tight end, and MSU's passing game looks like it should be unstoppable.

The 2013 passing game should be helped by the fact that the running game will also be peaking.  As Leo has pointed out, the offensive line is extremely deep next year and it seems that it could be even deeper for 2013. Three of this year's starters will be back for 2013 (Travis Jackson, Skyler Burkland, and Dan France).  The Spartans will also give a year of experience to the guard who replaces Joel Foreman.  They will only have to break in one new guard, the guy who replaces Chris McDonald.  By then, they should have lots of guys with at least some playing experience.  As for running backs, if Le'Veon Bell stays for his senoir year, he should become one of the Big Ten's most dominant running backs -- maybe as good as Wisconsin's Montee Ball? I thought Bell looked sensational against Wisconsin in the big ten championship game. Especially if the offensive line countinues to improve I have strong reason to believe that the run game could be one of the best we've seen at MSU.  Don't forget that MSU has great depth at running back, just in case Bell were to get injured.

With respect to defense, the Spartans have good depth along the defensive line. It's likely that William Gholston will be playing on Sundays by 2013.  But who knows, maybe he'll think twice, if he also recognizes that the Spartans will be in a position to make a run at the national championship.  Even if Gholston does not come back, the Spartans should still be pretty strong up front. The 2011 recruiting class brought two excellent defensive end prospects: 5-star recruit Lawerence Thomas and 4-star recruit Joel Heath. Marcus Rush will be in his senior year and should be playing very well. 4 star recruit Jamal Lyles is coming in as a OLB but with his size he could switch to defensive end.  The Spartans also recruited three defensive tackles in 2011, and they have a good history of developing defensive tackles.  So I expect this position to be as good as ever in 2013.

The linebacker position in my eyes has been a key component in the spartan defense. Ever since the Greg Jones era, Max Bullough and Denicos Allen have done a great job with keeping the tradition of strong linebackers going. Allen and Bullough will be senoirs in 2013 and can be expected to have explosive years. If Jamal Lyles stays at linebacker I am sure his great althleticism will definetly have a great impact. The linebacking core should be one of the strongest and deepest we've ever had.

Finally, the secondary should be pretty strong. Two of this year's starters will be seniors in 2013: cornerback Darqueze Dennard and safety Isaiah Lewis.  The Spartans have also recruited five 3-star cornerbacks in the 2012 and 2011 recruiting classes, and they have a good history of developing good cornerbacks.  So I anticipate that we'll have a solid secondary in 2013.

There you go folks. As long as MSU isn't rocked with a huge scandal or something, I think the 2013 squad could become one of the the greatest in Spartan history. If Mark Dantonio is going to win a national championship at MSU, his best chance will come in 2013.

Short Recruiting Note: Kenny Lawler

I've been hearing enough about Kenny Lawler, a wide receiver out of California, that I've decided to post something about him.  He was once committed to Arizona State, but they recently made a coaching change and he consequently decided to go back on the recruiting market.  According to Rivals, he has a top 2 of MSU and California, but something interesting is happening.  It looks like California may be full at wide receiver.  They have as many as 4 wide receivers committed, including one that they just picked up today.  That has to improve the Spartans' chances of landing Lawler, and that would not be a bad thing.  Take a look at some of his highlights:

This guy looks like a bigger version of Keyshawn Martin.  He's 6'3" and he plays with a lot of speed.  Boy, if Lawler were to commit to the Spartans, he and Nick Tompkins (running back recruit for 2012) and Aaron Burbridge would add a lot of speed to the Spartans.  Suddenly, Spartan nation may have to start chanting "pound, Green, pound...and fly, too, if you want."

Anyway, he hasn't committed yet, and Rivals could be wrong about his top two schools, or California may actually take 5 receivers.  So we'll have to wait and see.  But at least the Spartans look to be in a good situation with at least 2 excellent receivers: Lawler and Monty Madaris.

Update: 247 is reporting that Lawler has set a date for an official visit to MSU.  That is great, because this is one of the potential recruits I'm most excited about!