I know there are some analyses out there showing a correlation between the number of stars a recruit receives from recruiting sites and some measure of performance, but I think I've stared at this stuff long enough (and I've been around sports long enough) to believe that people get too carried away with recruiting evaluations. Interestingly, UM offers a quick but telling example. Below is an incomplete list (I don't want to waste too much time looking at UM) of 3 and 2-star recruits who were either major contributors to Michigan's team last year and/or will be major contributors to Michigan's team this year. How do I know that they were major contributors? I looked at their depth chart for their game against Ohio State last year and I caught several of their games, when they were not playing at the same time as MSU.
3 stars (according to Scout)
Jake Ryan OLB
Drew Dileo WR
Frank Clark DE
Desmond Morgan ILB
Raymon Taylor CB
Keith Heitzman DE
Cameron Gordon OLB
Ben Braden OT
Fitzgerald Toussaint RB
Jeremy Gallon WR
Thomas Rawls RB
Jack Miller C
2 stars
Thomas Gordon FS
Folks, that's at least 13 guys that will contribute even next year, despite the presence of all the 4-star recruits. We've seen the same thing at MSU, with 2-star guys like LeVeon Bell and Darqueze Dennard outperforming 4-star guys like Edwin Baker and Mylan Hicks. This is why I'm not as concerned about recruiting rankings. The bottom line for me is that there is plenty of talent out there in the world, especially since scholarship limits prevent the big boys from hoarding talent the way they once could. Moreover, I think the MSU coaches show year after year that they have an outstanding ability to find talented guys who fit the program's needs.
Having said these things, I do think "5-star recruiting" has 2 significant advantages. First, there are some 5-star players that eventually emerge to dominate games. But this isn't such an enormous advantage, since even super-elite guys like Jadaveon Clowney take time to develop, and then they really only dominate for one year, or so, before they head off to the NFL.
A second, more important advantage is observable in the trenches. There are only so many huge men in this world that can move like ballerinas and MSU has had some trouble recruiting guys like that. If you want to see what the difference 5-star recruiting can make in the trenches, just compare MSU's o-lines with Alabama's o-lines. I think the MSU coaches want to be able to run many of the offensive plays Alabama runs, but they simply don't have the kind of o-line that will allow that.
Thankfully, there are things you can do to still be effective without dominating the trenches. To a large extent, MSU has already solved the problem on defense. Of course, the Spartans have already built an elite defense, mainly by developing strong secondary and linebacker units. Unfortunately, the coaches have not yet figured out a consistent formula on offense.
Personally, I think that if you can't recruit elite o-linemen, then 3 things seem to have worked over the years. First, you can go with a spread offense, though even those run into troubles against good defenses, and of course, the MSU coaching staff is not suited to implementing a full spread -- though perhaps some spread. Second, mobile quarterbacks can overcome some of the weaknesses of a weak o-line. More and more teams, even in the NFL, are looking for quarterbacks that can scramble when things break down. Even MSU is clearly headed in that direction with their recruiting. Third, large running backs like LeVeon Bell, Jehuu Caulcrick, and TJ Duckett seem to have more success running behind weaker o-lines than smaller speed backs. I think the coaches have recognized this, as well, though perhaps not with the necessary urgency. They are going for Gerald Owens in the 2014 class, but they did not bring in any 230-pounders in the previous 2 classes. Hopefully, incoming freshman Delton Williams will be able to get up to that size, but probably not for his freshman year, meaning that Riley Bullough may have to play running back quite a bit this coming season.
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