A few days ago I considered some bad surprises that could significantly hurt MSU's football success. Now it's time to take a look at some that could help -- maybe even help enough to produce a national championship?
I'll start with defense because I think this is where we should expect to see the fewest surprises, or if we do, they shouldn't have as much impact on the season as surprises in other parts of the team. I think the biggest surprise on defense could come from Shilique Calhoun. Right now, I am expecting him to have a good year, perhaps statistically as good as Will Gholston's past two years. But what if he could have a huge breakout year, kind of like former Illinois defensive end Whitney Mercilus, who went from unknown to leading the nation with 16 sacks. OK, the probabilities of that happening are ludicrously small, however, if he could even get 10 sacks, that would still be a very nice surprise.
In general, the biggest surprise on defense would have to come from the defensive line. Right now, I am expecting them to be as solid as they were last year, but it would be nice if they were surprisingly more disruptive. Maybe Ron Burton turns out to be a D-line savant, and maybe guys like Hoover, Reynolds, and Thomas have breakout years. If so, this surprise would likely make this MSU's best defense, ever!
On offense, there are many more potential and needed surprises. I'll start with the receivers. As I discussed in my last post, poor receiver play would probably set back the entire program. On the other hand, MSU has never had this much talent at receiver. It would be a nice surprise if this talent started to live up to its potential. If Burbridge can play as well for the whole season as he did during his best 3-game stretch last year, he could become the best receiver in the B10. After that, it would be nice to see: Fowler finally holding on to the ball on a consistent basis, Arnett living up to his recruiting hype, and either Mumphery or Lippett emerging as reliable targets. I'll go out on a limb and say that Lippett is the one I keep thinking could become something special, if he could put it all together. He has the size and athleticism, and sometimes he has the route-running and the hands.
As for tight ends, if they play well, that would be the biggest surprise I can think of. I really don't expect much out of these guys, so if would be a pleasant surprise if Andrew Gleichert has a breakout year, or if Dylan Chmura can flash some brilliance as a true freshman, or if anyone of the other guys can contribute something meaningful.
At quarterback, I am expecting Andrew Maxwell to play better than last year. But what if he plays much much better? What if his improvement launches him into All-B10 territory? I think this surprise is one of the most probable surprises, not so much because Maxwell will dramatically improve his own play (though I think he will show that he has made progress), but because his supporting cast will be much better. An improved O-line and receiving corps should make Maxwell look a lot more Kirk Cousins, and if the receivers are as talented as I think they are, he could even look better than Cousins.
At running back, I am expecting a drop-off from LeVeon Bell, but not a huge drop-off. A nice surprise would be if the running game actually turns out to be little better than last year because: Riley Bullough turns out to be kind of like Iowa's Mark Weisman, Gerald Holmes does something similar to what LeVeon Bell did his freshman year, and one of the speed backs is finally able to make a decent contribution.
As for the O-line, I still expect it to be the best line of the Dantonio era, but I'm a little bit less optimistic about how good it can be now that Skylar Burkland is struggling mightily with injuries and now that the preseason depth chart has Jack Conklin listed as the third left tackle. At the end of last year, I was still hoping Burkland would become the highest drafted O-linemen in the Dantonio era and I was hoping Conklin was ready to emerge as one of MSU's best diamond-in-the-rough players of all time. Now, those hopes seem a little overblown.
Still, this is an experienced line and it would be a nice surprise if they can gel sooner than they have in the past, and if they could become one of the top 5 (maybe top 4) O-lines in the B10. It would also be a nice surprise if at least one of the tackles (most likely Fonoti) would emerge as an all-B10 candidate.
Finally, I expect the kicking game to be about where it was last year. So it would certainly be a nice surprise if whoever wins the place kicking duties turns out to hit around 80% of their field goal tries. That kind of improvement would probably give the Spartans at least a couple more victories this year.
Of all the surprises, I think the one having to do with the receivers would make the biggest difference for MSU, this year. If this group of receivers becomes one of the top 3 in the B10, Maxwell will look much better, and this offense will score a lot more points than last year. Combined with a stout defense, that could be enough to win the Spartans a B10 title. Add another surprise or two, and suddenly we're looking at a team that could contend for the national title.
Of course, we call them surprises because they are not necessarily things we are counting on, so I wouldn't bet the farm on predictions based on surprises. But surprises do happen and they have a huge impact on a team's success, so they are worth thinking about.
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