Salvaging the Season

Folks, nobody has been more disappointed in the Spartans this year than me. But even I have managed to talk myself into seeing the results of this season as reasonable . . . if the Spartans win the rest of their games. And they should have a good shot at doing that.

If the Spartans win the rest of their games this season, including their bowl game, they will end the season at 8 - 5. That's three fewer wins than last year. When you consider that they played a tough schedule this year, and that they replaced their entire passing game (quarterback, receivers, tight ends), and that they lost 2 of their best defensive players in recent memory (Jerel Worthy and Trenton Robinson), three fewer wins sounds about right.

Sure, we all hoped that the passing game would somehow not struggle and that they wouldn't suffer key injuries (especially on the O-line), but hope usually doesn't pan out. You have to be more honest with yourself about what you have, and I think many of us forgot that. I think that most of us expected this year's Spartans to be where next year's Spartans will be.  I think that next season we have much more reason to have extremely high expectations.

This year, we had to be more patient. We should have expected an 8 - 5 season. Of course, if the Spartans don't finish 8 - 5, then we can start to get a little upset. MSU should be able to beat Northwestern, Minnesota, and probably any team they'll face in their bowl game. If they finish below 8 - 5, this team can be deemed to have under-performed. The coaches will deserve much of the blame and they will have to seriously think about making significant changes as they prepare for next season.

A Look at Next Year: Offensive Line

So my original post on next year’s offensive line was accidentally deleted when I tried to fix some things.  Blogger has some seriously upsetting bugs.  Anyway, here’s a much less ambitious look at the Spartans’ offensive line next year.

Here’s a list of all current offensive linemen.

66           Jack Allen               C            6-1          291         FR            Hinsdale, Ill. - Hinsdale Central

63           Travis Jackson        C            6-3          275         RS FR      New Albany, Ohio - St. Francis DeSales

68           Ethan Ruhland        C            6-5          290         JR            Lake Orion, Mich. - Lake Orion

64           Blake Treadwell      C/OG    6-3          295         JR            East Lansing, Mich. - East Lansing

71           John Deyo               OG        6-6          300         JR            Battle Creek, Mich. - Gull Lake

67           Joel Foreman          OG        6-4          315         SR            Highland, Mich. - Milford

53           Kyle Lints                 OG        6-3          275         FR            Traverse City, Mich. - St. Francis

62           Chris McDonald      OG        6-5          300         JR            Sterling Heights, Mich. - Henry Ford II

73           Arthur Ray Jr.          OG        6-3          299         SR            Chicago, Ill. - Mount Carmel

76           Donavon Clark        OL         6-3          294         FR            Cincinnati, Ohio - Finneytown

69           Shawn Kamm          OL         6-7          310         RS FR      Saginaw, Mich. - Nouvel Catholic Central

72           Nate Klatt                 OL         6-4          290         SO           Clinton, Ohio - Northwest

54           Connor Kruse         OL         6-5          300         RS FR      Lowell, Mich. - Lowell

75           Jared McGaha         OL         6-6          298         SR            Powell, Tenn. - Powell

70           Skyler Burkland      OT         6-7          305         RS FR      Sunbury, Ohio - Big Walnut

73           Henry Conway        OT         6-6          318         SO           Shaker Heights, Ohio - Shaker Heights

65           Michael Dennis      OT         6-7          307         RS FR      Carey, Ohio - Carey

51           Fou Fonoti               OT         6-4          300         JR            Lakewood, Calif. - Cerritos College

59           Dan France              OT         6-6          315         SO           North Royalton, Ohio - North Royalton

60           Micajah Reynolds  OT          6-5          320         SO           Lansing, Mich. – Sexton

As we can see, the Spartans have 19 o-linemen and they are only graduating 3 of them.  That means the Spartans should have excellent talent and depth for next year.  The coaches must think so, too, because they have so far only recruited 3 offensive linemen in the class of 2012, and I don’t expect them to recruit any others -- except perhaps if a 5-star like Jordan Diamond expressed interest in becoming a Spartan (more on that in a later post).

Every position along the offensive line looks to be in good shape.  One of the strongest should be center.  Next year, Travis Jackson will be back.  He has the chance to be a really good center, especially if he gets a little bigger and stronger.  He will be backed up by Blake Treadwell and Jack Allen.  Don’t be surprised to see Allen emerge as the next Travis Jackson.  Anyway, the center position is talented, deep, and young.  The Spartans are set there for next year and beyond.

The Spartans are also set at right tackle.  Fou Fonoti and Skyler Burkland will be back and they will wage an epic battle for the starting spot.  On the one hand, you hate to see two great players battle for a starting spot because it means one of them won’t get to start.  On the other hand, it means MSU is talented and deep at right tackle.

At left tackle the Spartans are not as strong as at right tackle, but they should still be solid.  Current starter, Dan France, will be back.  This year, France made a frustrating but ultimately successful transition from defensive lineman to left tackle.  His backup, Micajah Reynolds will also be back and will also be a junior.  If both France and Reynolds go down or falter, don’t be surprised to see Fonoti move over, or hopefully, we will see one of the other young tackles emerge – perhaps someone like Michael Dennis.  So the position should be talented and experienced. 

At right guard, the Spartans should be all set, again.  Chris McDonald will be a senior and looks set to start for his third year at the position.  He should provide great skill and leadership.  His backup, Ethan Ruhland will also be back as a senior.

Left guard will be the position of greatest concern.  The Spartans are losing All Big Ten guard, Joel Foreman.  His skill and leadership will without doubt be missed.  But the Spartans will have as many as 9 guys vying for the position, including Ruhland, Treadwell, and Donovan Clark.  Clark is probably the highest-rated of all the guard recruits, but he will only be a redshirt freshman.  Clark was a 4-star recruit and recruiting sites raved about his run-blocking.  Thus, left guard is the position of least certainty.  MSU will have talented players ready to take over, but they will be relatively inexperienced.

The upshot, then, is that MSU will have one of the best o-lines in the Big Ten.  That fact should turn MSU’s running game from one of the worst (statistically) in the Big Ten, this year, to one of the best, next year.   All of that should also ease Andrew Maxwell’s takeover of the QB position.  One last exciting point that I want to make is that the o-line will probably be peaking in 2013.  Le’Veon Bell, Maxwell and the receivers should also be peaking at that time.  So if the Spartans are ever going to make a run at the national championship under Dantonio, it will be in 2013.

A Look at Next Year: Quarterbacks

This season isn't over yet, but I can't help but start thinking about next year.  I'm excited about what MSU football has become and where it's going.  Each year he's been here, Mark Dantonio has made MSU stronger and stronger, to the point where they now look like a legitimate top 10 team in the nation.  Sure they lost in the Big Ten Championship final, but in that game you could see the flashes of brilliance that make you believe in this program.  Now, having said that, next year the Spartans will likely take a step back.  Actually, the defense may not drop off at all (more on that in a later article) and parts of the offense will be better (more on that later), but some critical pieces will simply have to go through growing pains: namely, the receivers and quarterbacks.  I have already talked about the receivers (and I will revisit them when the recruiting season is over), so here I want to focus on the quarterbacks.

People, the bottom line is that the quarterback position is solid, but it will, nevertheless, take a step back.  Kirk Cousins, for all the frustrating moments he had, was spectacular.  You cannot ask for much more of a college quarterback.  As is often the case with college quarterbacks, you don't appreciate how good a guy was until the next guy takes over.  There will be a noticeable drop-off, not so much because Andrew Maxwell (the likely starter for next year) is bad, but because Cousins was so good in his final season.

Maxwell is going to be a good quarterback, perhaps even better than Cousins, by the time he becomes a senior.  But as a junior, as a first time full time quarterback, I think he will struggle -- especially against the good defenses.  Fortunately, Maxwell won't have to carry the offens, the way Cousins had to this year when the O-line was struggling.  Maxwell will actually get to have a junior season more like Brian Hoyer's, who had the luxury of handing the ball off to Javon Ringer.  The Spartans' running game will be strong next year (more on that later), so all Maxwell has to do is play well enough to keep the defenses from stacking the box.

I wanted to post some video of Maxwell, because the little we've seen of him is encouraging.  Unfortunately, there isn't much of relevance out there except perhaps this clip reminding us that he was a highly regarded recruit (perhaps MSU's highest rated quarterback recruit in recent memory).  The few times I saw him this year, I was impressed with his accuracy and mobility.  His decision making wasn't really tested, and that's really what will determine how successful he will be next year.  We will just have to wait and see how that goes.  Maybe we'll get a good sense of it during the Spring game.

As for other quarterbacks, I hate to say it but if Maxwell goes down, the season could be lost.  We have some excellent young prospects but they're all so young  -- freshmen or redshirt freshmen.  I just can't see MSU doing well if one them has to take over.  Having said that, we have reason to be excited about the future as these guys develop.

First, let's take a look at Freshman Connor Cook.  Coming out of high school, Cook was not that highly rated.  Scout gave him 2 stars and Rivals gave him 3 stars.  But to me, his highlight clips look impressive.

He has excellent height and athleticism, and a pretty strong arm.  He also shows good accuracy -- though, of course, this is a highlight video.  Cook will only be a reshirt freshman next year, so I don't expect him to contribute much next year -- man I hope he doesn't have to.  But you can see that by the time Maxwell moves on, MSU should be in a position to just re-load at the quarterback position.

The Spartans also have another solid quarterback recruit scheduled to come in next year: Tyler O'Connor.  He is rated as a 3-star recruit by most recruiting sites, though 247 gives him 4 stars.   He has good size, mobility, and a strong arm.  In his highlight videos he also looks a little more polished than Cook.

I like how he does a little extra to sell various fakes.  At times he also reminds me of Keith Nichol, kind of a mobile gunslinger.  I wouldn't expect O'Connor to contribute much next year, unless MSU is absolutely devastated by injuries.  But, nonetheless, he looks like an excellent prospect.

MSU also has a couple of walk-ons who may be able to contribute.  There is freshman Tommy Vento, who actually has some pretty good video.

Vento had a pretty nice career in high school, but you can see that he doesn't quite have the tools the other top prospects have, and consequently, he didn't get much attention from the recruiting sites.  Of course, there are many examples in college football of walk-ons who have gone on to win the starting job.  So it's possible that he could one day become an important player at MSU.  Shoot, judging from his video, I'd say that if he works hard he has a chance to give the other guys a run for their money.

Finally, there is Peter Badovinac who transferred from Drake.  He will be a senior next year and he is about the same size as Kirk Cousins (in fact, it seems the coaches like QBs with Cousins' dimensions).  There's really not much info on Badovinac: no videos, he wasn't rated by recruiting sites, not much in the way of stats.  I can't see him contributing much, just because, if Maxwell goes down, I would imagine the coaches would want to give the younger guys a chance to develop -- unless, he somehow emerges in the Spring as a solid second option that can win games for the Spartans.

So the upshot for quarterback next year is that MSU is breaking in a new, junior quarterback.  That will certainly present some difficulties, especially since MSU will also be breaking in new starting receivers.  On the other hand, Maxwell should be the most naturally talented junior quarterback that MSU has ever had to break in, and he will likely benefit from a very strong running game.  We'll have to wait and see what unfolds, but I wouldn't be surprised if the passing game gets off to slow start next year and then becomes quite strong by the end of the season.  So that's what it comes down to: the talent at quarterback and receiver may actually be the best MSU has ever had, but the inexperience will keep it from reaching its full potential until about the last month of the season.