Recruiting 2014: Montae Nicholson

So the word is that Montae Nicholson committed to MSU today. That's a pretty big deal because he becomes the highest rated recruit in the 2014 class, according to 247's composite index, and because he may be the best athlete I've ever seen on Youtube.

Seriously, Nicholson looks like he is not even trying while he glides by scores of people. Nicholson has the size (6'3") and athleticism to excel at many positions -- safety, wide receiver, even linebacker -- perhaps as early as his second year in the program. Personally, I think he would be most devastating at wide receiver, he reminds me of Megatron a bit when he goes against those high school defenders.

Of course, that's also the source of biggest concern with elite recruits like Nicholson. I think the biggest reason high-rated recruits often underachieve is that they become a little spoiled in high school. Their dominance in high school makes them think that they won't have to work hard when they get to college. Hopefully, that won't be the case with Nicholson, especially since he'll get to see that Demetrious Cox (who had a higher 247 composite score than Nicholson) wasn't able to just come in and beat out lower-rated guys like Drummond and Williamson at safety. The competition is always intense. He could be great, but he will have to work for it.

As for the rest of the class, the Spartans now have 18 recruits and will probably end up with something like 21 or 22. They'll most likely be going after another wide receiver, a JUCO offensive tackle, another d-lineman, and perhaps a quarterback.

Preview of Rose Bowl: Looking Like a Toss-up

Finally getting a chance to think about the Rose Bowl a bit and my initial thought is that this will be MSU's toughest game of the season. OSU was clearly an outstanding opponent, but I actually felt relatively confident about that game. The game actually broke down about how I expected: the Spartans held Ohio State to the 24 points I felt they needed to hold them to, and the offense was actually able to score above the 30 points I felt they would need.

I don't get a similar sense about Stanford. The weak simulations that run through my head keep suggesting a toss-up. This game basically looks set to go either way, which means it is likely to be settled by things like turnovers and critical mistakes.

Stanford has been shutting down explosive offenses most of this season, so we could expect that the Spartans will struggle to score above 20 points. On the other hand, Stanford's defense doesn't seem so dominant against more physical offenses. Their two losses came against Utah and USC, the 2 most physical teams on their schedule. But even those offenses didn't score a lot of points. So, I expect "pound Green pound" to have some success, but I would be very surprised if MSU can score more than 27 points. And MSU won't get to 27 if Cook and the receivers have an off game. The offense will have to be firing on all cylinders.

Then it will be up to the defense to contain Stanford's very physical offense. Stanford's offense looks a lot like Wisconsin's offenses under Brett Bielema. They have a huge o-line and they are able to run the ball very effectively, and they put up a lot of points. Thankfully, they don't have Russell Wilson to make their passing game elite, so they are relatively unbalanced as an offense, running the ball 548 times versus passing it 293 times. That means MSU will be able to stack the box a little more frequently than they could against Russell Wilson. But careful, Kevin Hogan is a pretty good quarterback, with numbers eerily similar to Cook's.

MSU has the advantage that it has played against Wisconsin under Bielema, and won. But we all saw what happened in those games. Most of them turned into shootouts. And they were toss-ups.
Folks, that's what this Rose Bowl is reminding me of: the battles against Wisconsin. The good thing is that I always felt that MSU had a good chance to win those games, but the bad thing is that I could also see MSU losing those games. Well, I suppose that's what toss-ups should make you feel like.

So it will ultimately come down to critical mistakes. Who will make less of them? That means protecting the ball on offense and special teams. Stanford is a well-coached team, so don't expect them to make many mistakes. MSU will have to match them in that area, and then hope for something to break their way. And as a Spartan slappy, I expect that break to happen.

Final score: MSU 27  Stanford 24

Thoughts on B10 Championship Game: Eliteness Has Arrived!

Folks, why did I start blogging about MSU football a few years ago? Why do I blog even though I barely have enough time to clip my toenails these days? It's because of moments like this! I started this blog because I saw where this program was headed and I was upset that MSU did not have a network of football blogs as extensive as it deserved. Well, I decided to whatever I could to help, and today, I'm glad I stuck with it.

Folks, this is the biggest victory since the 1988 Rose Bowl win. This victory was the most impressive I've ever witnessed. MSU just beat what seemed like an unstoppable Ohio State team, with overwhelming talent. For about 2 quarters, I even started to feel like MSU just could not compete with that overwhelming talent. But then MSU's stars started to fight back and they asserted their dominance for most of the fourth quarter. Just an unbelievable performance.

Folks, we are blessed. We have an elite coaching staff, that recruits and develops amazing talent. Now, all we can hope is that the right steps are made to ensure that this program stays on top for many years to come. Of course, that will involve some luck. But more on that later. Here are some thoughts on the game itself.

Offense

Connor Cook had his best game of the season. He's going to be a Heisman candidate next year. The receivers and tight ends dropped a couple, but overall they were excellent, and made several big plays. The receivers and tight ends should be elite next year. Langford was bottled up most of the game, but I love how tough he ran in the second half and once again he broke a long one to seal the victory. The o-line had their struggles, but they seemed to take over in the fourth quarter.

Defense

I was actually a little afraid that the defense would get exposed by Ohio State's explosive offense, and for a while they did. But especially in the fourth quarter, this defense stuffed an overwhelmingly talented offense. What an astonishing achievement.

Special teams

They played an incredibly clean game. Geiger hit his field goal attempts, Sadler only had the one punt partially blocked, and Kings and Shelton made some nice returns.

Coaches

There were a few calls I disagreed with: the blitz at the end of the first half that contributed to a long pass that set up OSU's field goal, too many run plays that didn't take OSU's defensive speed into account (especially Shazier's). But folks, that's just nitpicking. This coaching staff is elite and they deserve credit for a remarkable achievement.

Upshot

It's safe to say that MSU is now an elite football program that really should be playing for a national title. The pass interference calls against Notre Dame really ruined the prediction I made a couple of years ago that Dantonio could win the national championship this year. Oh well, at least MSU could still end up ranked number 2 in the country, if they can beat Stanford in the Rose Bowl.

As for long term implications, I expect this victory to give MSU momentum on the recruiting trail. We should see MSU start to win more recruiting battles than ever before.

Preview of B10 Championship Game: Unleash Hell

I'm going to post my preview of the B10 Championship game a little early this week -- and I'll be adding to this post as more ideas enter my mind. In short, I think the MSU defense should be aiming to hold Ohio State to about 24 points or less, while the offense needs to score around 27 or more. I think that's feasible, if MSU can do some of the following:

First, MSU needs maximum intensity. It needs to prepare with intensity and play with intensity. In short, the Spartans need to unleash hell.

Second, MSU must limit the big plays. OSU is getting a lot of points this season from long passing plays and long runs. The big passing plays are the result of the same strategy: confuse the secondary by overloading a passing zone with receivers. They keep doing it and teams don't seem to be prepared to stop that play. Nebraska used that type of passing play effectively against MSU, so if I were the coaches, I would work on defending that type of play over and over this week. You know it's coming, so the secondary needs to clearly understand their assignments. The other big plays are coming from long runs by Braxton Miller. You know Miller is going to get his yards, but the Spartans have to limit the damage. They can't allow him to break off 60 or 70 yard touchdown runs.

Third, MSU is going to have to stop the option. They won't be able to fully stop it because Miller and Hyde are so talented. But they have to limit the damage. And the best way to limit the damage is by practicing to stop the option.

Fourth, MSU must tackle well. Miller and Hyde are tough to bring down and that's a big part of why OSU gains so many yards. Considering how much MSU struggled to bring down Minnesota's David Cobb (especially the secondary had a hard time bringing him down), this has to be a concern. Tackling Miller and Hyde is going to hurt, but this is a championship game, so it's now or never.

Fifth, Connor Cook and the receivers have to play well. OSU has a dangerous front 4 on defense, but I think the MSU o-line has the talent to neutralize them, to a great extent. So MSU should be able to run the ball, but that's not going to be enough to score the 27 points they will need. Cook and the receivers are going to have exploit Ohio State's biggest weakness on defense: their secondary. A repeat of the performance against Minnesota will make victory unlikely.

Sixth, the Spartans can't take their foot off the gas. MSU cannot allow itself to relax at any point on Saturday because this OSU team can score touchdowns in a hurry. Even if MSU jumps ahead by 21, or something like that, they must keep playing with maximum intensity, or else OSU will come back on them in a hurry.

Seventh, MSU must be ready for trick plays. I'm not a fan of Urban Meyer, but he is kind of wily. So expect OSU to go for a fake punt, perhaps even a fake kickoff. The Spartans should also watch out for the punt block. OSU will likely try to block punts all night long, and if MSU is not careful, OSU could get one.

Upshot: I think MSU will be ready, but OSU is talented and tough. So this is one that could go back and forth for a while . . . before MSU locks down the game in the fourth quarter.

Final score: MSU 30  Ohio State 21

Thoughts on Minnesota Game: Meh and Woohoo!

Well, that wasn't the prettiest victory, but it was a victory and MSU is now 11-1 -- quite the achievement for this coaching staff. I knew Minnesota would be tough. Thank goodness they don't have much of a passing game.

Offense

Not a great day. They put together 2 great drives, but they could not do much else against that tough Minnesota defense. Connor Cook missed some huge opportunities and the receivers made some terrible drops. They will need to be much sharper next week. Langford did his thing, but he did struggle for 3 quarters. That Minnesota run defense was tough.

Defense

They held the Gophers to 3 points, but they definitely struggled to stop Minnesota's running game. If not for some miscues, Minnesota could have put up more than 10 points and made this a much closer game. There were also several times where the defense struggled to generate a pass rush. The defense will have to step it up, if they want to stop Carlos Hyde next week.

Special Teams

Not their best performance, but no turnovers and no big mistakes.

Coaches

No complaints about the play calling. The game plan was working, but there were several bad plays that killed most of the drives.

Upshot

It was not a pretty victory, but Michigan State just won its 11th game of the season. That's special. Next week, this team has a chance to take this program to the next level, to elite status -- perhaps even into national championship discussion, if a lot of other things break their way. I am actually expecting MSU to bring it next week, I'm confident they will "unleash hell."

Preview of Minnesota Game: Slugfest

Only time for a short take on this week's game. Bottom line on this one, A focused MSU team should be able to replicate what Wisconsin did to Minnesota last week. But a distracted MSU team, one that may be looking ahead to Ohio State, could struggle and get stunned.

Minnesota is dangerous. This ain't your ancestors' Minnesota team. Jerry Kill and his assistants are clearly turning Minnesota into a real B10 team, one that may be farther along than Michigan. They have a physical defense and a physical running game. Thankfully, they still have a relatively weak passing game -- and that was their undoing against Wisconsin.

MSU will have a tougher time running the ball than usual, and I wouldn't be surprised if Jeremy Langford's 100-yard-game streak comes to an end this week. If he still gets over 100 on the Minnesota defense, that's a good indicator of the strength of MSU's running game.

So the Spartans will likely have to rely more heavily on their passing game. That means Connor Cook and the receivers must play well. And considering that the passing game has been consistently improving over the last several weeks, I don't expect that to be a problem.

I was impressed by Minnesota's ability to run the ball against Wisconsin. Their o-line was getting good push against the Badgers' front 7, and their running backs are relatively bruising. I am eager to see if MSU's front 7 can have more success against the Gophers' running game, especially as preparation against OSU's Carlos Hyde.

Minnesota struggled to score points against Wisconsin mostly because their passing game had so many miscues. If they fix some of those miscues, they could score some points on the MSU defense. They have potential, I just hope that potential isn't realized this week.

Upshot: MSU needs to win this one to keep their BCS hopes alive. A loss in this game would be devastating for a team that seems destined for greatness -- I'm dreaming of 13 and 1, woohoohoo!

Final Score: MSU 27  Minnesota 10

Thoughts on Northwestern Game: A Formula Has Emerged

Alright, we're now starting to get a pretty good sense of MSU's formula for victory. It's basically something like this: slow start on offense, defense keeps it close, offense heats up in the second half, defense throttles opposing offense, oh, and Langford breaks a long one.

Offense

Cook showed significant improvement. I like when he lets it rip, makes him look like a Heisman Trophy candidate. The Spartans will need that kind of performance against Ohio State.

The receivers are now a strength of this team. The talent is outstanding and deep. MSU has to be at least top 2 in the B10, when it comes to receivers. Nice to see Price also making some catches.

Langford is outstanding, but I feel like he's faster in the second half than in the first. I'd like to see him run with more speed early on because that's part of why the offense starts slow.

The o-line was also outstanding. They opened some nice holes for the running backs and they gave Cook all kinds of time.

Defense

They were amazing overall, but it does make me a little anxious that Northwestern was able to move the ball so well in the first half, even without their top 2 offensive players.

The secondary was too much for Nothwestern. But the front seven failed to generate much pressure, even on blitzes. That's two weeks in a row.

One thing I thought about when Kain Koulter went out is that this defense is bruising. It pounds other teams into submission. Now, the hit on Koulter should have been flagged, but I don't think Lewis intentionally targeted him. Nice to see Williamson step in and excel.

Special teams

Tough day for the punting because of the wind, but still effective, while Geiger continues to take the kicking game to new heights.

Coaches

MSU won, so they did well overall. But they need to fix things like clock management, and perhaps getting the offense off to a faster start -- that may be critical against OSU.

Upshot

The Spartans are 10-1 and Legends Division champions. I predicted 12-2 and I hope they make me eat crow by going 13-1. Now on to Minnesota and Ohio State.

Preview of Northwestern Game

This is a game that makes me a little nervous. MSU is riding high, we're all confident that MSU will be playing in the B10 championship game, and so it's easy to overlook a Northwestern team that has collapsed this season. But folks, Northwestern is a wounded snake that can still kill you if you're not careful and focused. A focused MSU team wins this one, while an overconfident MSU team could suffer a devastating defeat.

Northwestern has struggled in part because of key injuries. Well, they now have several key players back, including their most dangerous offensive weapons, Kain Colter. With Colter, NU's offense is much better than their total statistics suggest (which are about middle-of-the-road in the FBS). I actually expect them to be able to do many of the same things Nebraska did against MSU's defense, particularly with their running game. Their wide receivers, however, are not as good as Nebraska's, so they may not be able to exploit some of the weaknesses in the MSU secondary that Nebraska exposed. One important thing I would like to see in this game is the defense showing that it has addressed some of the weaknesses exposed by Nebraska. I would also like to see the d-line generating a lot more pressure than they did last week -- though the lack of pressure may have been in part due to MSU's respect for Nebraska's dangerous running attack.

NU's defense is not elite, but it can be pretty pesky. So MSU will have to come in with a solid offensive game plan, while Cook and the rest of the offense will have to make some key plays. If Cook struggles, or if the receivers drop balls, or if they turn the ball over multiple times, this is the kind of defense that could shut down MSU. If MSU's offense can at least play like it did last week, they should be fine. But of course I would really like to see the offense showing significant improvement every week, especially when we consider where they will need to be if and when they play in the B10 championship game. Specifically, I'd like to see Cook getting off to faster starts and the tight ends contributing again (they seemed to disappear last week).

So MSU should win this game if they come in focused and ready to go, and I think they will do so. This team seems to recognize the greatness of what they are accomplishing.

Final score: MSU 27  NU 14

Thoughts on Nebraska Game

OK, i'm ecstatic about the victory, but I'm a little unsatisfied with the coaches' performance. MSU was the more talented team overall, and Nebraska turned the ball over 5 times. Yet this game turned out to be close, late into the game.

Coaches

So I'll start with my thoughts on the coaches. I think they spent too much time the last 2 weeks working on trick plays. OK, the fake field goal worked, but most of the trick plays did not work, and they tended to kill a lot of drives. Nebraska's coaches actually seemed better prepared, and as a result, they were able to do more with less. They identified weaknesses in MSU's elite defense and effectively exploited them, especially the match-up against Drummond. They also overloaded zones with receivers in ways that confused the Spartan secondary.

The MSU coaches also went away from what I thought was working pretty well: running between the tackles. The o-line was getting pretty good push up the middle, and yet the coaches kept trying trick plays, too many runs to the outside, and too many passes.

Ultimately, MSU won the game, so the coaches deserve much credit. But I do think the Nebraska coaches were able to do more with much less.

Offense

I was most impressed with the receivers today. Lippett is the third down stud. That's multiple weeks in row he's made big catches on third down. Fowler looks like an NFL wide receiver, and is making some plays. Of course, Mumphery caught the big touchdown pass.

The running game was pretty good and I think they would have been better if the coaches ran more power plays. In any case, the o-line looked pretty good, especially in the first half. They did struggle to deal with Gregory, but that's to be expected. Langford had another great game, but I'm worried that he's getting overworked.

Cook started slowly, missing a wide open Lippett in the end zone in the first quarter. But he did get better throughout the game and he made a lot of nice throws.

Defense

They finally looked human. They struggled to contain that superhuman Ameer Abdullah, who I hope leaves early for the NFL. The Nebraska coaches also found a weakness: Drummond struggles against elite receivers. So basically, elite players give MSU's defense troubles. Thank goodness their QB was a freshman.

I was also discouraged that Nebraska's decimated o-line was able to do quite well against the MSU front seven. That could be a problem that resurfaces against top-tier teams like OSU, and maybe even Minnesota.

Special teams

Solid. No great kick returns, as usual. But no fumbles, and Geiger hit his field goal attempts, and Sadler showed off his running abilities.

Upshot

MSU is now a strong enough team that even a well-prepared Nebraska team was not able to overcome. The talent gap was clear. This suggests that MSU should be able to overpower their next two opponents. Still, I think this team should get into the habit of firing on all cylinders, including coaching preparation, because they're going to need to be doing so if and when they face OSU in the B10 championship game.

Preview of Nebraska Game

Folks, when I made my preseason prediction that the Spartans would go 12-2, this is one of the games I thought they'd lose. The Spartans just don't seem to know how to beat Nebraska, even when they clearly have the better team. As the season has unfolded, however, it has become clear that MSU is one of the top 3 teams in the B10 and really has no business losing this game to a weakened Nebraska team.

Sure, Nebraska is starting to salvage what at one point looked like a season that would get Bo Pellini canned. And they put together a nice road victory against Michigan, last week. Plus, they do have some dangerous players, like Ameer Abdullah. But the bottom line is that this is MSU's game to lose, so they have to come in focused and passionate. This is the type of game that could ruin what is becoming one of the greatest seasons in MSU football history.

MSU comes in looking dominant on D and improving on O. I expect the defense to do well against a Nebraska offense that is missing Taylor Martinez and half their starting o-line. Another dominant performance looks likely, if they can avoid the big plays.

The offense should also do well, even if Connor Cook struggles -- hopefully he won't. MSU is starting to develop a solid running game and Nebraska's run defense is allowing 160 yards per game. If the o-line is gelling the way it usually does later in the season, MSU should be able to run the ball quite effectively. It would be nice if they could run it as effectively as Wisconsin ran the ball on Nebraska in last year's B10 championship game, but I'll settle for a replication of Minnesota's rushing performance (271 yards) against Nebraska.

One thing I'll never forget is how Nebraska defeated a superior Spartan team 2 years ago by engaging in a lot of pass interference. The refs basically allowed Nebraska to get away with what was clearly an underhanded strategy. Come to think of it, the refs gave Nebraska the game last year, particularly when they called Johnny Adams for a block in the back on an interception returned for a touchdown (if I recall correctly). Son of a . . ., MSU is bascially going to have to take it out of the ref's hands by dominating the way they should.

Final Score: MSU 25  Nebraska 10

The Bye, So Let's Think About Where We're At

Folks, the bye week gives us an opportunity to reflect on some interesting things about this season, and perhaps the next. One way to gauge where we're at is to consider how this team is doing in terms of surprises. If you've been reading this blog for a while, you know that before the season starts I like to anticipate surprises that could significantly affect how the team will perform throughout the season. You can find my preseason discussion of surprises here and here. So what significant surprises have we observed, up to this point in the season?

As far as the bad surprises go, it looks like the only one that really came to fruition was the one about Maxwell. He did struggle, but at least I was right that he could be replaced by an adequate quarterback -- and that's what Cook has been, up to this point. In the first few games it also looked like the receivers were set to give us another bad surprise. That is, it looked like they had not improved much from last year. As I wrote, I think that would have been a season-killing surprise, but thankfully, the receivers came around by the Iowa game and have continued to improve throughout the season.

As for good surprises, I think we've had many more of these, and that's why MSU is having such a great season. Starting with the defense, I expected it to be good, but did any of us expect it to be this good? Part of that dominance is thanks to the emergence of Shilique Calhoun, who I think has turned out to be more disruptive than Will Gholston. I said it would be a nice surprise to get 10 sacks out of him, and he currently has 6.5, along with 11 tackles for loss. So he may actually exceed what I thought were high expectations. In general, the d-line has turned out to be more disruptive than anticipated, and that has helped make this one of the best defenses in school history. I didn't say anything about Denicos Allen in my surprise discussions, but he may be the biggest surprise on defense. He leads the team with 57 tackles, 5 sacks, and 11 tackles for loss. That's just astonishing.

On offense, I can't really say there have been any big surprises. I guess we could call Cook a good surprise in that he stepped in when Maxwell struggled, but quarterback play is actually worse than I expected. As for other parts of the offense, the receivers, the o-line, the running backs are now performing about how I expected. Jeremy Langford is the big surprise among the running backs, but the running game overall is about what I expected. Perhaps the biggest positive surprise on offense has been the emergence of the tight ends in the last few games. I honestly did not expect much from that group, but they have started to make some key contributions. Hopefully they'll continue to progress as the season draws to a close.

The special teams have performed about as expected, except that Michael Geiger has exceeded expectations. I was hoping that he would at least match what Conroy did last year (hit approximately 75% of field goal attempts), and he has actually hit 9 of 10 field goal attempts.

So hopefully the good surprises stay in place and hopefully we see the emergence of a few more good surprises. I would most like to see Cook take a big step forward over the next few games, but I'm not really counting on it. If he can at least play the way he played against UM, The Spartans will still have a great year. Throughout the Dantonio era we have also seen the o-line gel by about this point in the season, so I'm kind of expecting/hoping that they really start to dominate. It would be a nice surprise if this "best o-line in the Dantonio era" ends up dominating in a way similar to Wisconsin o-lines, especially by the B10 championship game.

The season, thus, has been quite the success. Have you ever felt this kind of euphoria? Perhaps it's just best to say as "Da Bears" guys say: "why are we so blessed?"

Recruiting 2014: Madre London

There is some buzz about Madre London committing to MSU. I don't have time to write thorough reviews of recruits these days, but I did want to pass along a few thoughts.

London is a relatively different from most recent running back recruits. He's big, but not LeVeon Bell big. He's fast but he's not RJ Shelton or Jeremy Langford fast. Basically, he is kind of "tweener" on size, power, and speed. His best traits appear to be quickness, vision, decisiveness, and toughness. He kind of reminds me most of former Stanford running back Stepfan Taylor, though obviously, London has some work to do before we could really start comparing to Taylor. I'll say this, his contribution will probably fall somewhere between Larry Caper and Stepfan Taylor. He does look like he could contribute as a freshman, but that all depends on who's ahead of him.

London is a sound pick up, who seemed to be a top priority for the coaches -- maybe they saw the next Taylor in him, as well. It's always good to see the coaches getting who they want. London's commitment probably means the Spartans are finished recruiting running backs, and they probably only have about 3 or 4 spots left. My guess is they'll take 1 or 2 more d-linemen, 1 more o-lineman, 2 receivers, and perhaps a defensive back.

Thoughts on Michigan Game

A little late with my review of the game because I'm traveling, but man, what a game! This victory ranks right up there with the Outback Bowl victory over Georgia. It makes it 5 out of the last 6 over Michigan (and yesterday's victory was the most resounding), which shows that MSU is here to stay at least as an equal to UM and may be on the verge of establishing "a new world order" (in fact, if Brady Hoke loses again next year, UM could be looking for a new head coach).

Here are some other random thoughts.

Defense

This is a historic defense. They have now completely shut down several of the B10's best offenses, outright suffocating them in the second half. Just astonishing.

Offense

Considering the great field position they had to work with, it's safe to say that the offense under-performed. Connor Cook has a lot of work to do. Right now he is adequate for the talent around him, but this offense could be unstoppable if he could just play a little better. There were several huge plays that he missed, though he did also create a few big plays. He'll have to step it up, if MSU has to play Ohio State in the B10 championship game.

I was a little disappointed in the rest of the offense, as well. The o-line didn't dominate like I hoped (though they were pretty good), the receivers dropped several balls, and the Langford was just a few shoe-string tackles from having a bigger game (though he still ended up with a solid performance). 

Special teams

The kickers did their job, and the returners didn't fumble and they actually made some decent returns.

Coaches

The game plan looked solid, but more importantly, this coaching staff has built a defense that has not allowed UM to score a touchdown in 2 games. They still have some work to do with the offense, but the coaches are on a roll.

Upshot

As I said, this is one of the biggest victories in MSU history, especially because it revealed a clear trend: MSU has established itself at least as UM's equal and may be on the verge of asserting it's dominance. A victory next year will establish a Jim Tressel-like dominance over UM. This game should also help MSU with some recruits.

As for this season, this victory keeps MSU on the road to the Rose Bowl and on the road to fulfilling or surpassing my preseason prediction of 12-2. 

Why are we so blessed?

Preview of Michigan Game

Ahahalrighty then, we've come to it at last. Folks, I'll just come out and say it. MSU is the more complete team and can only lose due to a freak occurrence (like Devin Gardner having the game of his life) or a poor game plan.

Defense

Michigan has an explosive, but inconsistent offense. They're putting up 44 points a game, including over 700 yards of offense against Indiana's poor defense. The good thing is that MSU's defense matches up quite well against UM's offense.

To start with, UM has a weaker running game that the Spartans should be able to stop, even without stacking the box. UM's strength is it's passing game, but it is excessively dependent on 2 good receivers: Gallon and Funchess. Obviously, one of the keys to this game is how well the MSU secondary shuts down those two. Gallon's strength is his ability to keep moving. He takes advantage of Devin Gardner's ability to extend plays. The Spartan secondary is going to have keep on him for longer than they may be used to covering other receivers. Funchess' strength is obviously his height. He is not particularly explosive, but he can win a lot of jump balls.

The other danger is Devin Gardner's mobility. MSU has experience containing running quarterbacks, but Gardner is particularly dangerous because he combines excellent mobility with some decent throwing ability. Gardner has struggled with turnovers this year, but he has put it all together in a couple of games this year. He looked nearly unstoppable against Notre Dame. Obviously, MSU has to hope that Gardner doesn't put it all together for this Saturday. Even if he does, MSU should be able to slow him down quite a bit, but UM would probably get around 25 points. Then it would be up to the offense to keep up.

As we've seen, the MSU defense usually figures out opposing offenses by the second half of the game and then completely shuts them down. I'm hoping to see the same this week, but I suspect UM will have a little more success in the second half than previous teams.

Offense

The MSU offense has also been inconsistent but has more to work with than UM's offense. In particular, MSU has the best o-line I can recall and some above average running backs that are on the brink of stardom. MSU also has more depth at receiver, and emerging tight ends.

But like UM, the Spartan offense is heavily influenced by their quarterback. Connor Cook, has looked both excellent and downright shabby. If he plays like he did against Illinois, MSU will win this game regardless of what Gardner does. If Cook plays like he did against Purdue, MSU will lose regardless of how well their defense plays.

UM's defense is not statistically great this year, but they will still be one of the better defenses MSU has faced this year. Cook and the offense have done well against better defenses, like Iowa's, but they could also struggle if Cook's accuracy issues return, or if the receivers start dropping balls again.

Special teams

Last year, the special teams favored UM. They hit all their field goals, and MSU missed key opportunities. This year, I hope to at least see MSU's special teams neutralize UM's special teams. Ideally, MSU's STs will outplay the UM STs.

Coaches

MSU is the more talented team, so it's mostly up to the coaches to win this game. I will only excuse the coaches if Cook struggles mightily, or if Gardner has a freak performance. Otherwise, MSU really should win this game. I don't want to see MSU losing this game because of an inferior game plan or poor coaching decisions.

Upshot

As I said, the Spartans should win this game, barring a freak occurrence (like Cook absolutely flopping, Gardner going nuts, or multiple fumbles at inopportune times). MSU is more talented all around, has fewer holes in terms of talent, and is playing at home.

I'll say that Gardner will play well, but the defense will slow him down. Cook and the MSU offense will also play pretty well and score just enough points to win this one by a touchdown.

Final score: MSU 28  UM 21

Getting in the Proper Mood for Saturday

"At my signal, unleash hell."

Thoughts on Illinois Game

Alrighty, then, that's the kind of formula that will take the Spartans far this season: stifling defense and some competent offense. It ain't that complicated.

Offense

The Spartans focused a lot more on the run game this week, largely to good avail. If your opponent can't stop the run, then run it until they find a way to stop you. They'll need to be more balanced against the better defenses, but it looks like the running game is as good as MSU has had in a long time. The o-line is truly the best of the Dantonio era and Langford and Williams could end up being as good a duo as we've ever seen at running back at MSU.

Cook played really well. He did fumble at the goal line and he did get lucky on the touchdown throw to end the half, but otherwise, what he did today is what MSU needs out of him.

The receivers . . . I haven't seen a drop in quite a while, and they seem to be getting open pretty regularly. The tight ends are also clearly starting to emerge.

Defense

What an astonishing performance. We are truly witnessing something historic. They almost completely shut down an offense that was scoring 35 points a game. And they are now consistently suffocating opposing offenses in the second half. Opposing teams have some success in the first half, but by the second half it's just a bunch of 3 and outs. Seriously, my only concern is that MSU could lose some guys early to the NFL.

Special teams

Good kicking, still nerve-wracking on punt returns.

Coaches

Narduzzi = elite. The offense recognized the dominance of their running game and made some good passing calls. The only concern I might raise is that the team seems to start games slowly. That hasn't hurt them against lesser competition, but it could make a difference against tougher teams.

Upshot

This is starting to look like a championship team. The talent is amazing and starting to click. I think it really depends on Cook's performances the rest of the way. If he plays the rest of the way like he did today, MSU should go to the Rose Bowl.

Preview of Illinois Game

This week the Spartans face a 3-3 Illinois team that statistically looks a lot like Indiana. Illinois has a decent offense that puts up 35 points a game, but they have a pretty bad defense that allows 32 points a game. MSU should win this one comfortably, if they don't overlook Illinois and if the offense can just be average. 

Illinois is getting blown out by quality teams like Nebraska and Wisconsin, and I expect the Spartans to do the same. As I said for the Indiana game, elite defenses generally tend to stop elite offenses, and so I expect MSU's defense to hold Illinois to less than 21 points, except if the Spartans turn the ball over on their own side of the field. 

That leaves it up to the offense to put up at least 21 points to win this game. Can they do that? Not if Connor Cook plays like he did most of last week. I do, however, expect Cook to bounce back this week. 

The thing is that Cook just needs to be average for this offense to be pretty good. The o-line is good and getting better, Jeremy Langford is on the verge of becoming a star at running back, and the receivers are flashing some serious talent. Even the tight ends seem to be emerging. Seriously, all we need is some consistent decent play from the quarterback position for MSU's offense to be among the B10's best.

As for special teams, they're looking good, except for the occasional damaging turnover. As I've said before, it would be nice to see them contribute the way they did when K-Mart was returning punts.

The coaches were on a roll until the offense sputtered again last week. But as I said last week, it's tough to evaluate the performance of the offensive coaches when Connor Cook is struggling. For this week, it's probably best to focus on how the coaches handle Cook's struggles and whether the coaches get outsmarted by the Illinois coaches at a critical point in the game.

Final score: MSU 23  Illinois 16

Thoughts on Purdue Game

Had to DVR the game, so I'm a little late with the review of the game.

Folks, this was definitely a troubling game. The Spartans did win, but the offense looked like last year's offense -- against one of the worst defensive teams in the country. 

The biggest issue was simply Connor Cook's inaccuracy. He was just flat out missing receivers, and it's even safe to say that he was outperformed by Purdue's true-freshman quaterback. I am hoping that this was an aberration and that he'll quickly be back to the form he displayed against Iowa and Indiana. Unfortunately, this kind of performance will not cut it against teams like Nebraska and Michigan. 

The running game looks like it's very close to becoming elite. Jeremy Langford looks really good and would be a Heiman candidate, if not for a few shoestring tackles and perhaps a little more support from the passing game. The two freshmen, Delton Williams and RJ Shelton, look like they're making good progress every week. But freshmen usually run out of steam towards the end of the season. The o-line was pretty good, but they didn't dominate as much as I hoped against Purdue.

The receivers looked good. Kings and Lippett were solid. Even the tight ends are starting to contribute almost every week. The receivers are now consistently doing their part. It is time for the quarterbacks to be consistent.

The defense obviously pitched a shutout and scored their own touchdown, but it was a little disconcerting that they gave up so many first downs, and especially that Purdue was able to convert so many third downs with a true-freshman quarterback. The defense had a particularly difficult time with Purdue's big running back. Once he went out with an injury, Purdue's offense wasn't the same.

The special teams was solid. They punted well, they didn't turn the ball over. However, we eventually need to see the special teams MSU had 2 years ago, when K. Mart was returning punts for significant yardage.

The coaches seemed to perform OK, today. Unfortunately, this was a day where Connor Cook's struggles made the coaches' performance difficult to evaluate. They at least seem to have made progress on reducing penalties. I guess I also can't think of too many problems with the play calling, though I do feel that they could have tried to run the ball more. 

Upshot: this is the kind of performance that brings you back down to earth. A performance like this will not produce victories against Nebraska and Michigan. It also helps you realize that the Spartans' chances of winning the B10 hinge on the play of Connor Cook. Today, he was outplayed by a true freshman, so it's safe to say that he was pretty bad. He needs to rebound next week, if the Spartans are to have any hope of getting back to the Rose Bowl.

Preview of Purdue Game

I'll keep this preview short and sweet (primarily because I'm working 80 hours a week.)

Folks, here's the deal. Purdue is clearly going through what Illinois went through last year: thoroughly collapsing under a new coaching regime. In the long run I think Darrell Hazell will turn Purdue into a dangerous program, but in the short term he is bringing to East Lansing one of the weaker teams MSU will face this season. A focused MSU team should dominate this game, but an unfocused MSU team could give Hazell a signature victory.

Purdue's offensive and defensive stats are among the worst in the FBS. That means MSU's defense has a great chance to achieve a shutout, while the Spartan offense has a chance to at least match their performance against Indiana. I do expect many 3-and-outs in this game for Purdue, but don't be surprised if they find some way to score 10 or 13 points -- especially if the Spartans turn the ball over on their side of the field.

The offense should put up great numbers -- unless we see the re-emergence of past issues, like dropped balls and inaccurate passes. I'm expecting/hoping to see the o-line continue to improve. They are already pretty good, but if this o-line keeps making progress from week to week, I really think this could be an o-line that could hold it's own against the top teams in the country, including Ohio State in the B10 championship game.

The running backs are benefiting from this good o-line, but they themselves have a ton of talent. We're seeing Langford and Williams take it to the next level, but I think Langford in particular has a chance to get some national attention. I'm hoping he can reach All-American levels in a game like this.

I'm also expecting/hoping Cook and the receivers continue to look like a strength of this team. They have done it 2 weeks in a row, they just gotta keep it up. Perhaps the only thing I could ask from the receivers is that at least one of them emerges as a dominant go-to receiver. Several of them are pretty solid right now, but we need our own Jared Abbrederis. The good thing is that I think we have some guys that could get close to that level by the end of the year.

As for the special teams, I expect to see the kickers keep up the good work, and I'm hoping to see the returners avoiding the costly fumbles.

Finally, I expect the coaches to have another good performance. I think their biggest task is keeping the team focused on a weaker opponent, but this team seems to be pretty motivated, perhaps because of the way they struggled at the beginning of the season.

Final score: MSU 33  Purdue 7

Thoughts on Indiana Game

OK, this game went down about how I expected, except that the offense looked more explosive than I anticipated, and while MSU dominated, they made just enough mistakes to keep this one too interesting for too long.

Defense

Another impressive performance against a really good offense. They would have dominated even more if not for some key mistakes: the long TD run by Coleman, the muffed punt by Kings, the personal foul on Waynes. We're lucky that Indiana's explosive offense didn't capitalize more on those mistakes, but the fact that Indiana's offense could not score more points even with all those mistakes is good evidence that this defense is outstanding, nay, historic.

As I said in my preview, elite defenses generally are able to shut down elite offenses. So I like where MSU's program is right now, relative to most other (perhaps all) Big 10 programs.

Offense

It's hard to say that we saw progress today because Indiana's defense is much worse than Iowa's. But for the first time in a long time it felt like MSU's offense is actually really good. The passing game is turning into a real strength, and the running game achieved exactly what I hoped they would.

The crazy thing is that the offense has not nearly approached their ceiling. Connor Cook just needs to improve his accuracy a little more, the receivers just need to catch the ball a little better, the o-line just needs to gel a little more, and the running backs need to have a little better vision. If they can continue to make even incremental progress, we could be talking about MSU's offense as the most explosive in the Big 10. I don't want to get ahead of myself here, because by next week we could easily be wondering if the offense peaked in this game. Nevertheless, there is good reason for us to be excited about the offense.

Special teams

Not the strength they were last week, but good overall. Kings' muffed punt led to 7 points for Indiana, but Sadler had a great day.

Coaches

They prepared the defense well for Indiana's fast-paced offense and they made good adjustments when it seemed Indiana had some momentum. I didn't see too many times where I disagreed with their calls -- perhaps only in the first quarter where they passed on 3 straight downs instead of running the ball. I suppose I could also complain a little about all the penalties this team is getting, especially for personal fouls. Otherwise, the coaches are now clearly on a roll.

Upshot

This team has now played very well two weeks in a row. If they can maintain this level of play, this team could easily fulfill my preseason prediction of 12-2, and maybe even better. Why are we so blessed?

Preview of Indiana Game

Folks, we're all excited now that MSU's offense seems to be on track. Some of us, like me, won't learn our lessons and will allow ourselves to dream of national championships. We may even make the mistake of thinking of the Indiana game as a gimme. But folks, this is not typical Indiana team. This is an Indiana team that's currently 3-2 and is ranked 11th in the nation in total offense, scoring 44 points a game. They just blew out Penn State 44-24. So if the Spartans take them lightly, we could be in for a similar shock.

So here's the thing, MSU is more talented and more developed as a program, so the Spartans have no business losing this game. If they come in focused, they will win. If they overlook Indiana, there could be trouble. 

If MSU is focused, I look for the Spartan defense to slow down Indiana's offense in much the same way that Auburn slowed down Oregon's high-powered offense in the championship game a few years ago. In general, elite defenses seem to have a lot of success against elite offenses, and as long as MSU is focused, this pattern should hold for this game.

I also look for Connor Cook and the offense to at least replicate what they did against Iowa. Indiana's defense is much worse than Iowa's, allowing nearly twice as many points per game, so you would be justified in thinking that MSU's offense should actually score over 30 points in this game. But I'm not quite ready to believe that yet. I need to see the consistency from week to week before I start assuming that this offense has become that explosive. Nonetheless, if they can at least do what they did against Iowa, MSU should win this game.

In this game, I'll also be looking for some other key things that will tell us a lot about how good this team could actually be by the end of the season. For starters, we need to see consistency and progress from Connor Cook and the wide receivers. They can't play well one game and then slide back the next. If they at least play as well as they did against Iowa, then I'm going to start dreaming big. The running game also needs to take that next step. The talent is there on the offensive line and among the running backs, and they've done OK so far. But MSU could and should have a dominant running game. Iowa's tough run defense may have muffled some of that dominance, so I'm hoping we really get to see it emerge against Indiana's softer run defense. 

I also need to see the special teams continuing to be a strength, rather than a liability. And finally, I need to see that the coaches are well-prepared and not getting outsmarted by the Indiana coaches. Like I've said, this MSU team is more talented than any other team MSU will face the rest of the way, so any losses the rest of the way will fall mostly on the coaches. It's a lot of pressure to place on coaches, but they have to do their part, just like the players do.  

Final score: MSU 27  Indiana 20

Thoughts on Iowa Game

Little late on this cuz I just finished watching it on DVR, but now I'm eating the most delicious crow I've ever tasted.

The Spartans definitely got off to a slow start: Kings dropped an easy pass, they turned the ball over on 4rth down, missed a field goal, bad penalties, and the defense gave up some huge plays in the first half. But the Spartans still did some good things in the first half, and they dominated in the second half. The defense was dominant, the offense looked good, and the special teams was a strength.

Defense

Dominant as usual. They did break down late in the first half, perhaps in part because of the collision between Dennard and Lewis and because they struggled to adjust to Iowa's hurry-up offense. Whatever their issues were, they figured them out in the second half. Iowa's offense could do almost nothing in the second half. The only concerns I have on offense this year are that some juniors might leave early for the NFL at the end of the season.

Offense

This is not Oregon's offense, but it looks like MSU may finally have an offense competent enough to let the defense win games. If the MSU offense can play at least like this the rest of the year, then the Spartans will win their division. All they need are 2 touchdowns and 2 field goals per game.

Connor Cook did not look like a Heisman candidate, but he was plenty good enough. If he could continue to make good progress on his accuracy and consistency, he could be become a Heisman candidate by his senior year. He has so many of the tools in place. But let's not get ahead ourselves. For now, I'm delighted that he's more than adequate.

The running backs struggled a bit, as expected, against a tough Iowa defense. But Langford still looks solid and I liked what I saw from Delton Williams.

The receivers are slowly looking like a strength, rather than a liability. Kings is looking like K-Mart, but actually better at the same year in the program. Burbridge showed some progress and Fowler is looking more consistent. The tight ends still have to emerge.

Apart from some penalties, the offensive line looked good against a solid Iowa defensive line. This really is the best o-line in the Dantonio era. These guys should dominate the rest of the season.

Special Teams

This unit was a strength this week, with Geiger hitting 4 filed goals and Kings making some decent returns. Sadler also had a great fake punt and they didn't let Iowa break any big returns.

What a difference a competent special teams unit makes.

Coaching

I've been critical of the coaching staff this year because I now believe MSU has a more talented team than any team MSU has faced so far. So when MSU struggles, my instinct is to blame the coaches. Well, this week, I do think they were able to get the necessary production out of their talented team. I didn't really see any play calls I disagreed with and they generally put their players in good situations. I hope things stay this way the rest of the season.

I also should give the coaches credit for recruiting and developing such talented players. Seriously, MSU's team looked more talented to me than Notre Dame.

Upshot

This was one of the biggest victories in the last few years. MSU just beat (dominated, really) a team that many people saw as on the rise. And MSU beat them at home. This game also revealed that MSU has what it takes to win the Legends division. They certainly have the talent, now they need the coaches to properly utilize that talent. If MSU can play like this the rest of the season, they could even play in a BCS bowl. Suddenly, my prediction of 12 - 2 is starting to look reasonable.

Preview of Iowa Game

Workin 80 hours a week, folks, so my Spartan blogging is taking a hit. But I did want to weigh in on Tomorrow's game. The main thing I've been thinking since the Notre Dame game is that MSU now has better talent than most of the teams it's going to face, and that includes Iowa (and Notre Dame). So I really do think the pressure is on the coaches. I hate to say it, but Brian Kelly basically outsmarted our coaches, with a lot of help from the refs. I am hoping that it's much more difficult to say that after the Iowa game.

Basically, I don't want to come out of the Iowa game thinking that a pattern is being established, where a more talented MSU team loses to a less talented team because our coaches are being outsmarted by the opposing team's coaches. The offense is supposed to be the weak link, but I'm sorry, the Notre Dame game showed us that this offense has enough to talent to score at least 17 points a game -- which should be enough to win most games this season, including the Iowa game.

Folks, the offensive line is finally looking good (perhaps the best I've seen in more than a decade), and we have excellent running backs in Langford and Hill. We finally have a few guys making catches: Jamal Lyles, Macgarrett Kings, and even Bennie Fowler. The quarterbacks are still struggling, particularly with accuracy. But if they can't make the throws, the coaches should at least be using their mobility. I would make sure that they at least make good fakes on the read option -- I want to see some confused cameramen!

Anyway, the point is that there is enough there on offense to at least score 17 points a game, even against a good defense like Iowa's. If the coaches can't get at least 17 points out of this offense, then it's on them. And Dantonio then should be fully searching for a new group of offensive coaches for next year.

If the offense does not get 17 points, then you can count on a very close game with a high probability of an MSU loss. Last year, Iowa showed just enough cleverness on offense to beat MSU at home. This year, they have a more competent offense and their coaches seem to be doing a better job than last year. They will get at least 14 points.

So the offense has to do its part. Progress must be made on offense, or this game will be a loss, and we can pretty much start thinking of this season as a repeat of last year. If MSU loses this one, I expect it to be because of the offense's futility. And as I've said, that result will be on the coaches.

So what's my prediction? I really want to believe that MSU will figure things out on offense, but Iowa's defense is probably better than Notre Dame's, so I do expect the offense to struggle. I foresee the offense moving the ball well with run after run, only to see drives stall because the coaches outsmart themselves with an odd passing play. I foresee that this may be the game that breaks the patience of Spartan Nation, especially if the offense fails to score a touchdown (which is a very likely outcome in this game).

Final score: MSU 10  Iowa 17

PS: Please let me be wrong! I would love to be eating crow all day Sunday.

Thoughts on the Notre Dame Game

This was a tough loss. Pretty painful to watch. Here's a few thoughts.

- This loss was made more painful by the fact that MSU looked more talented than Notre Dame. Well, they at least looked more athletic -- talent also involves being more accurate throwing the ball and catching the ball and hitting your field goal attempts. But Notre Dame clearly needed the help of the refs in this one.

- The offense just broke down too often. Too many inaccurate throws, too many inopportune drops, too many penalties.This offense is not good enough to overcome mistakes, or perhaps it's not good because it makes too many mistakes.

- Parts of the offense look good at times, but they can't put it all together. The receivers looked excellent at times, but then had key drops. The offensive line was pretty solid, but had a couple of key penalties and poor blocks. The running backs ran pretty well, but they did lose yards on several key plays. The quarterbacks may be the only ones that actually looked worse more often than they looked good.

- The defense is clearly elite, considering that even Notre Dame had to resort to a crazy strategy like just throwing deep every time. Too bad the refs rewarded ND for their offensive incompetence. Just a disgusting performance by the refs.

- The special teams is still a liability. What a problem to have alongside a struggling offense.

- The coaching was good on defense, OK on offense. But when I see teams like Iowa and Minnesota racking up points on offense, it makes me wonder about MSU's offensive coaches. At the very least, I can say that the coaches don't seem to learn much from one year to the next. How can you end up with the same outcome against Notre Dame for 3 straight years?

- Finally, I am stung by this loss, but I did see that MSU has what it takes to win their division and play in the B10 championship game. But the offense must get better every week. Last year, I saw signs MSU had what it took, only to watch the offense actually regress over the course of the season. So there is reason to be hopeful, and reason to worry. So next week I'll be watching for the offense to make progress. If it doesn't, then we are looking at a repeat of 2012.

Preview of Notre Dame Game

OK, so it's widely considered that this game will tell us quite a bit about this MSU team. This Notre Dame team is clearly not as good as the team they had last year, but Notre Dame always has top athletes, they usually play well in big games, and Brian Kelly is a pretty smart coach. So yeah, this game should tell us a lot about things like whether the offense really has turned the corner and whether the defense really is tops in the nation.

Obviously, it would be nice to discover that the game against YSU was a sign of good things to come, that the Spartans have finally developed an offense worthy of their defense. I'm not asking for MSU to put up 50 on Notre Dame, but if they can hang something like 24 points on them, then suddenly we can start dreaming big, Spartan nation. I'm talking championships, folks!

BUT, as delusional as I tend to be, even I know that it's more likely that YSU was more of a blip. We're talkin about one good offensive performance in the last 12 months. I gotta see more before I become a full member of this church.

In fact, the probabilities are likely pointing towards another offensive struggle. I do think the offense showed signs of progress, but the bottom line in this game is that they are now going up against a defense with a decent secondary and an above-average defensive line. That means the receivers will have a more difficult time getting open and the offensive line will have its hands full. Especially this year, MSU has not shown me much that would lead me to believe that it can respond to such challenges. Basically, when some part of the offense is struggling (especially the wide receivers), the offense tends to fall apart completely.

I hope I'm wrong, but I do expect major struggles. So my tempered hopes are that the offense will score at least 14 points. That's not confidence-inspiring, but if they can do so, MSU will have a great chance to win this game and it would be a decent sign that this team may be able to battle their way to a respectable season.

If Cook and the rest of the offense can't score more than 10 points, we can immediately return to the sense of foreboding we felt most of last season and after the first 2 games of this season. We could pretty much expect this season to go like last year.

Final score: I do think the defense will mostly shut down Notre Dame, but I also think our offense will be held to one touchdown. So I'll go with an ND win for this one, sad as it makes me to say that.

MSU 13  Notre Dame 16

Thoughts on YSU Game

At long last! We haven't seen this kind of offensive productivity since the Spartans played CMU, roughly a year ago. Yes, it was against an FCS team, but I'll take it. Here are some other thoughts on the game.

- Cook is not as accurate as Maxwell, but his mobility makes him more effective. Obviously, he can make plays with his feet, but I think his mobility also allows him to look at riskier passes down the field. If you have the ability to scramble out of trouble, then you probably have more confidence to take risks with the passing game. I think that may in part explain why Cook tries more long passes than Maxwell.

- O'Connor did some good things, but it's clear he's behind Cook, and probably Maxwell.

- The receivers . . . what can I say? It's Christmas! They looked outstanding, and not just one or two of them, but several of them. The only concern I have is that they got the separation we've been looking for against an FCS team. We saw that this offense can be explosive when the receivers get separation and, basically, do what they're supposed to do. What if they can only perform like this against FCS opponents? If that's the case, the offense could easily regress again. I don't think that's the case, I do think the receivers have finally figured things out. But it's something to keep an eye on.

- MSU has tight ends! But even against this FCS team, they didn't do all that much. Still, Lyles looks like LT 2.0.

- The running backs continue to show some talent. We'll obviously get a much better sense of what we have there next week.

- The offensive line looked good, but not dominant. They gave the quarterbacks a lot of time to throw and opened up some holes for the running backs. On the other hand, this was an FCS team, and they didn't create as many holes as I was hoping to see.

- MSU's defensive talent overwhelmed YSU's offense, so it's hard to say much new about the D. This is the first game, though, where I have started to worry that Calhoun might leave early for the NFL. He's an outstanding talent that will get attention from NFL scouts.

- The special teams looked shaky again. That has to be resolved soon.

- The coaches seemed to do better today. The play calling was sensible, and appropriately bold in some cases. They also are giving some younger guys a chance to make plays, and the young guys have responded well (see Shelton and Kings).

Upshot: let's not get too excited, yet. I do think this team has turned the corner on offense, but it is also quite possible that the struggles could return against teams with better secondaries. I also think the offensive line is not quite where it needs to be. I hope I'm wrong, but unless the o-line makes significant progress by next week, they still look like they will struggle quite a bit against Notre Dame.

Preview of YSU Game

Some things I hope to see / not see:

- The Spartans need to settle on a quarterback (perhaps 2 quarterbacks) by the end of this game. So Connor Cook has to show that he is progressing. To me, he did not look like he improved much from week 1 to week 2. If he is going to continue to get opportunities, he has to start showing that he's making significant progress. His biggest problem right now is accuracy. He is creating well enough with his feet, but then missing wide open receivers. That lack of accuracy is costing the offense in terms of explosive plays, and is forcing the Spartans to go on drives that require them to execute a lot of plays -- not a good situation when your offense is struggling.

- So far, I've been impressed with the performances of Jeremy Langford and Nick Hill. I think they have the talent to be ranked among the B10's best backs -- if they could get more support from the rest of the offense.  In this game, I hope to see that I'm right about that, so I hope to see them continue to make significant progress, and I hope that at least the offensive line shows a little more life. I've been disappointed with Riley Bullough, up to this point. Perhaps he hasn't received enough opportunities, but I'm hoping to see more out of him this week.

- What can I say about the receivers? Hoping that they emerge is like hoping every day was Christmas. If they're not going to run good routes or catch the ball, I hope they at least show improvement in blocking.

- The offensive line has to start playing better. At least the o-line has more talent and experience than last year, but they are taking far too long gel. If they look lost again this week, be prepared to feel embarrassed during the Notre Dame game.

- The special teams unit needs to show that last week was a fluke. If not, if they make critical mistakes again, then we are looking at almost an exact replica of last season, where the defense was really the only competent unit on this team.

- Throughout the rest of the season, I'm going to keep an eye out for offensive coordinators that MSU should try to poach for next year. YSU put up 718 yards of offense last week, so they may have an OC the Spartans should keep an eye on. But YSU was playing a weak team last week, so we'll have to see what their OC can do against MSU's defense. If YSU's offense scores at least 3 touchdowns, then that's our guy!

Final Score: MSU 24  YSU 14

What I Would Do, If I was Playing a Video Game

Folks, I'm no coach, but I'm pretty good at video games, particularly at winning with weak teams. When I play sports games, I like to challenge myself by playing with weak teams, and I've learned that if you stick to it long enough, you can beat the computer with those teams, even at the most difficult setting. The key thing you learn from doing this is that even weak teams can find things that work. Of course, the nice thing for MSU is that the defense is elite. So the coaches aren't working with absolutely nothing. 

So what does this desperate idea of mine tell us about what MSU should do the rest of this season? First of all, it tells us that it is probably time to stop the extreme experimentation. There's probably not much need to keep trying quarterbacks -- unless Terry is really ready, which I really really doubt. At this point, it's time to accept that MSU's best chance to win will likely involve a combination of Maxwell and Cook. 

It's time to find out what plays you can consistently execute with those guys and it's time to start building whatever momentum you can with what you have. These guys are not going to get you 35 points a game, but as we saw in the TCU game, these guys are good enough to take MSU to victory against pretty good teams. Basically, MSU should be preparing for the rest of their games this season with a mind to replicate their results against TCU: tough defense and barely enough offense. 

Next, it's time to figure out what the receivers can do. Can they run at least 5 plays correctly? Is it too late to teach them to block properly? If they're not going to get involved in the passing game, can they help more on the running game? Is it too late to teach them other little things like coming back to the football or catching the ball at its highest point? Can you get the tight ends catch at least 2 balls per game?

Next, it's time to figure out what the offensive line can do. If they can't pass-protect well, then you have to regard plays that require extensive pass-protection as very low-probability plays. Are they better at run-blocking to the right or to the left, or between the tackles? If you find they're decent at something, then you focus on that and add some tweaks.

This isn't the kind of plan that's going to get you a lot of points. But we're beyond that now, it's all about limiting the incredible damage this offense could cause to the program, until a new offensive staff can be brought in next year -- because that is the real solution. This year, the offense needs to find a way to score 17 points a game. Can the coaches find enough plays that this offense can execute consistently enough to score that many points? If so, the damage could be limited, and the Spartans may yet win 8 games. If not, then we may be looking at a total offensive collapse and a major setback of this program.

Thoughts on USF Game

Folks, I'm the biggest Spartan slappy (as evidenced by my foolish prediction that this team would go 12-2), but even I know that this season is lost. Incredibly, the offense is worse than last year, even as the defense is better. The offense scored one touchdown against a team that gave up 53 points last week. That simply does not bode well.

I think we've seen enough now to say that the Spartans could easily miss a bowl game and Mark Dantonio could end up on the hot seat by then end of this season. The bottom line is the offensive culture needs to change, and I think the best way to do that is to bring in new offensive coaches. I actually hoped Dantonio would bring in new people at the end of last year, but I also thought his moves this off-season would work -- I guess they didn't.

If I were Dantonio, I would already be looking around for a talented offensive coordinator. I would look for someone that is relatively similar in style to what MSU currently has (pro-style) and that pays attention to detail. MSU's offense seems to be hurt by a lot of the little things breaking down: bad blocking, dropped passes, slightly inaccurate quarterbacks, poor selling of fakes, etc.

Other than that, here's a brief list of things I saw in this game:

- The quarterbacks will not save this team. Maxwell is not mobile/creative enough, and the mobile/creative guys are too inexperienced, inaccurate, and mistake-prone. Maybe someone like Manziel could do something with this offense, but you don't want to build a program that relies on such rare talents. Sorry to many folks, but O'Connor does look like the number 3 QB. The order to me is still Maxwell > Cook > O'Connor, and I would just ride Maxwell and Cook the rest of the year. Unless Terry really is better than all of them, and I just don't think that is the case.

- Receivers seem to regress in this program. Burbridge is actually worse than last year. Will Kings get worse, the longer he stays in this program?

- The offensive line is supposed to be good, but they look lost. Poor pass protection, don't consistently open holes. There were some young guys playing (Conklin and Clark) so it's harder to blame it all on the coaches, but MSU's o-lines have struggled for years, so I'm leaning more than ever towards believing that the coaches deserve most of the blame.

- The running backs have talent, but that talent is limited by the struggles of the o-line and the rest of the offense.

- Special teams looked bad. Muffed punt, missed chip-shot field goal, no explosive plays. I guess the punting looked good, at least.

- The team looks generally undisciplined. Too many big penalties.

- The defense is elite, but that just breaks my heart.

Upshot: the offense looks set to break records in futility this year and will likely cost MSU a bowl game. Worst of all, this season could set the program back, and could even unmake much of what has been built in the Dantonio era.

Preview of USF Game

Too bizzy these days to write long previews, but I gotta post something about some things we need/don't need to see in this game.

- This game cannot be a continuation of last season: outstanding defense and inept offense. If we see the offense score less than 17 points, then . . . fuggedaboutit, folks. We can fully start to panic. We are staring at a sure 7 - 6 season, and possibly worse. We can also safely conclude that Dantonio will have to bring in an outsider for offensive coordinator next year, and he may as well start looking for someone immediately. I would recommend someone that pays attention to the little things, like making sure receivers block and making sure play-action-fakes look believable.

- The receivers have to perform, or else Dantonio may need to do what Bielema did last year when he fired his offensive line coach, after Wisconsin began the season completely unable to run the ball.

- The best O-line in the Dantonio era has to look the part, or else we can safely assume that there are coaching issues on the O-line. This line has talent, it must perform.

- As for quarterbacks, somebody has to step up, or this season is going to suck. But I just don't have much optimism. Maxwell has a really nice arm (that's just plain truth), but he is too cautious and not enough of a creator to overcome the futility of the rest of the offense. I know a lot of people want to see the younger guys take over, but I strongly suspect they will look a lot like Cook did in the WMU game. I would very much like to be wrong about this, I would happily eat my Spartan cap on this one, but I think Spartan nation may be in for more disappointment.

- Hopefully, the defense will continue to look dominant, while the special teams looks competent. I would hate to have anything new to worry about.

Final score: MSU 24  USF 10

What Can be Done?

As most in Spartan nation, I've been dwelling on the WMU game, panicking quite a bit about how the offensive futility could waste another championship defensive performance. I can't figure out what is happening. Why do the receivers look so bad? Why is the offensive line struggling? Is it the coaching? That's what I'm leaning towards. But wasn't Bollman supposed to make a difference with the o-line?

I'll say this, if the receivers and o-line don't improve quickly, then Maxwell and Cook do not appear to be the answer at quarterback. I still believe that Maxwell would be a decent quarterback, if he was in a system where all the parts are working. But he is not enough of a creator on his own to overcome the deficiencies in the rest of the offense - except perhaps when the Spartans are running the hurry-up offense (maybe that's the answer). Cook has the mobility to create more, but he does not have the accuracy. Maybe he could develop it over the course of a whole season, but we can't know that for certain.

So the question is whether one of the younger quarterbacks can create enough with their feet and arm. I'm certain O'Connor and Terry are faster than Maxwell and Cook, so they probably can do the running to create, but what about the passing? If they are not more accurate than Cook, then you basically have 2 more Connor Cooks. If they have shown accuracy, then I think they probably need to be given a shot. Something big needs to happen.

The bottom line, for me, is that you don't see this level of offensive futility even in most MAC schools. So I think there is something wrong with the offensive coaching staff - I hope the next game proves me wrong, but I doubt it. Unfortunately, it's too late to go out and hire new offensive coaches, so Dantonio is going to have work with what he has. The Spartans cannot waste another championship defense, so drastic measures are necessary. So if the young quarterbacks do create more, then they have to play, even if it has to be Terry.

I really really hope we're all just freaking out over nothing.

Thoughts on WMU Game

OK, the Spartans won, but they certainly did not inspire much confidence. Things just don't look much different from last year. Here are a few things I noticed.

Offense

At times WMU's offense looked more competent even though they were playing against MSU's elite defense. That can't happen. That can't happen. MSU should have better talent, so MSU's offensive struggles are mostly on the coaches. I can accept that a program might struggle one year because it gets hit with a perfect storm of graduations. But two years in a row shows that you have a problem within your program.

Maxwell looked pretty good at times. At the end of the first half he looked outstanding, throwing some confident bullets right on the money. But overall, he struggled to move the offense. I did wonder more in this game whether Maxwell would excel in a more established offense.

Connor Cook runs very well, fast enough and tough enough to keep O'Connor and Terry on the bench - if in fact there were plans to use those guys to run the option or other running plays. He does appear to be less accurate than Maxwell, and I can see why the coaches worry about his decision making. But I think he is actually a good complement to Maxwell.

Langford looked explosive. He does look like a home run hitter. Too bad he didn't get many good holes to run through. Riley Bullough ran better in the first half. Otherwise, he didn't do too much. Nick Hill looked good at times.

MSU needs to evaluate its wide receiver coaches and/or its receiver recruiting. The receivers are not making progress. Fowler seems to get open a lot, but he must have dropped at least 3 catchable balls. Everyone else is not getting much separation, or running bad routes. I don't know, but the receivers did not look good.

The best offensive line of the Dantonio era did not look good. They struggled to open holes for the running backs and allowed the quarterbacks to get pressured too often. This unit will struggle against Notre Dame.

Defense

Looks very similar to last year, which is not a bad thing, overall.

Looks like teams are going to be trying to beat the defense with the long bombs. It does work sometimes. But the secondary does look better than last year.

The defensive line is still strong against the run, but doesn't get much penetration on its own -- except late in the game. Most of the penetration was the result of linebacker blitzes.

Special teams

There was a lot of sloppiness. Bad snaps, the punt returner struggled to locate the ball. But at least the kickers looked decent.

Coaches

The play-calling looked OK, except that on offense it seems that the coaches want to push plays that this offense just can't execute.

I know Dantonio likes to stay loyal to his guys, but it's danger time. If this offense does not improve by the end of this year, they need to go pick off Western Michigan's offensive coordinator, or some other outsider who can come in and change the offensive culture. The offensive struggles could put Dantonio on the hot seat by next year.

Give Maxwell a Chance

I see a lot of division about Maxwell being declared the Starter. The obvious thing to say about that is that people need to wait and see what happens. As fans, we have too little information to predict how any of the quarterbacks will do. The people with the most information, the coaches, decided that Maxwell should be the starter, and right now that has to be good enough for the rest of us. Folks, if Maxwell is not who we hoped for, we'll get our chance to grumble. But right now, none of us can really make a sound judgment, so we really need to be patient.

For the record, I predict that Maxwell will excel this year - just goin with my gut, folks, cuz I don't know any more than the rest of you. I predict he will make a Ricky Stanzi (remember "Rick Six"?) -like improvement. Maxwell showed progress in the Spring game. He showed confidence and some unbelievable accuracy - though his receivers dropped the ball several times on that cold day. The only concerns I had were with his unwillingness to make plays with his legs (there were a couple of plays where he should have taken off but instead threw the ball away) and his accuracy beyond 30 yards. He needs to fix those 2 things to become a complete quarterback.

And look, if he doesn't show progress, the schedule is set up so that the damage will be minimal. The Maxwell/Cook combination should generate enough offense to win the first 3 games, and may even be good enough to get the Spartans past everyone but Notre Dame and Nebraska. And if another quarterback clearly emerges (maybe Cook or O'Connor "blow up"), I'm sure they'll get their shot. Anyway, let's wait to see what happens.

Game Against WMU

OK, here we go, the season is upon us. Here are a few things I NEED / DON"T NEED to see in the opening game.

Passing game improved

Last year, the passing game not only stunk, it showed little improvement over the course of the season. In some ways, the passing game actually went backwards over the course of the season. For example, at the beginning of the season, I thought Maxwell would be better than Cousins by the time he left MSU. He did show flashes of greatness, especially against Ohio State, but by the end of the season, Maxwell was in full decline. He was unable to create with his feet and the offense was unable to move the ball with him at the helm. Maxwell, or whoever starts, must show considerable progress, especially if the rest of the offense is struggling, I want to see Maxwell taking off on a lot more runs (shoot, even Cousins is running a lot more these days in the NFL).

Obviously, the receivers and tight ends need to show that they . . . EXIST. If we see 5 drops or more in this game, I'll be immediately lowering my expectations for this season.

Offensive line dominating

This is supposed to be the best O-line in the Dantonio era. In this game, I need to see that this means something. Dantonio's best line has to dominate WMU. I need to see that the quarterback has time to throw and that the running backs have nice holes to run through. If the O-line struggles in this game, I can't see the Notre Dame game going well at all, and we can probably start panicking about the entire running game.

Running backs

I'm not worried about the running backs, and I'm hoping to see that this expectation is justified. As long as the O-line is living up to expectations, the Spartans have enough talent here to excel. Man, I hope we don't see something like a fumbling problem that negates their talent.

Defense

I'm not worried about the defense, and I'm hoping this game justifies that expectation. It would really suck if after this game we find ourselves worrying about the D-line's inability to pressure the quarterback or stop the running game. Or if we find ourselves worrying about one of the corners getting beat deep multiple times.

Special teams

It would suck if after all the good news about Geiger and Muma, we find ourselves worrying about the kicking game.

Upshot

Overall, I am hoping to see signs that in Mark Dantonio's seventh season the Spartans are about to put it all together. I am hoping to see that the coaches' eye for talent has produced a team that is explosive on both sides of the ball. I want to see that the coaching staff has also reached a new level, that they have created a disciplined, smart, and creative team. I'd like to see enough dominance in this game to give the backups a lot of snaps. I'd like it if those backups look so explosive that I feel spoiled - folks, I want to feel bad about our abundance.

Final score: MSU 45 - WMU 10

Prediction for 2013 Season: Spartans go 12-2

Well folks, it's time to predict how the season will go for MSU. Last year, I was way off. I said the Spartans would go 12-2, and of course they ended up going 7-6. In my defense, most people expected at least 10 wins, but nobody expected the passing game to be as bad as it was. I stuck my neck out again this spring when I made my way-too-early prediction that the Spartans would go 12-2 this season.

Believe it or not, this prediction is a "check down" for me. Back in 2011, I predicted that Mark Dantonio would have his best chance to win a national championship in 2013. The Spartans were going to have a lot of mature talent, especially at quarterback, running back, and the O-line. The defense was also supposed to be peaking.

Well, a lot of those elements are actually now in place, but the Spartans did lose two key pieces (LeVeon Bell and Dion Sims) that I think would have made a huge difference for this team. Moreover, the quarterbacks and receivers are not quite at the level I hoped for, though they should be much better than last year. With that, here is my game by game prediction.

08/30/13 vs. Western Michigan TV East Lansing, Mich.

The Spartans should win this one, as long as they are focused.

09/07/13 vs. South Florida TV East Lansing, Mich.

The Spartans should win this one, but it could be more a struggle than expected. This is a dangerous opponent.

09/14/13 vs. Youngstown State TV East Lansing, Mich.

The Spartans should win this one, as long as they are focused.

09/21/13 at Notre Dame TV Notre Dame, Ind.

This should be the first major challenge, especially because in the last 2 years we have seen Notre Dame's recruiting advantage assert itself along the trenches. MSU's offensive line has been particularly dominated by ND's 5-star d-linemen. If MSU's best line in the Dantonio era can stand up to that talent, then the Spartans have a real shot. If not, we're looking at another futile offensive performance. MSU's defense should do well, but the offense has to find a way. I think they will, not just because the o-line will be pretty good this year, but because I expect the coaches to fully deploy a lot of quarterback runs in this game (probably O'Connor). It should be a close game, but I'm going with MSU in this one.

10/05/13 at Iowa * Iowa City, Iowa

Iowa should struggle this year, but they will be tough at home. If the Spartans are focused, and if the offense is not the disaster it was last year, then MSU should win this one somewhat comfortably.

10/12/13 vs. Indiana (Homecoming) * East Lansing, Mich.

This will be the battle of a great defense (MSU's) versus a great offense (Indiana's). I think MSU's defense will be good enough to allow the offense to win the game with just a decent performance.

10/19/13 vs. Purdue * East Lansing, Mich.

This game will be tougher than expected. Purdue has some talent and a pretty good new coach. I'm hoping that the fact that the coach is new will slow them down a bit. This is a more dangerous opponent than most people anticipate, but MSU should pull it out if they are focused.

10/26/13 at Illinois * Champaign, Ill.

Illinois should struggle this year, and so, MSU should win this one if they are focused.

11/02/13 vs. Michigan * East Lansing, Mich.

MSU will have no trouble getting motivated for this one and I think that MSU should be more talented than UM this year. So, the only way MSU loses this one is if something unexpected happens, like Devin Gardner blowing up or MSU's quarterbacks collapsing.

11/16/13 at Nebraska * Lincoln, Neb.

MSU should have beaten Nebraska last year because it's going to be tougher to do so this year. Nebraska's offense should be one of the best in the country, though their defense will remain a relative liability. I'm hoping MSU will learn from the whoopin Wisconsin put on Nebraska in the B1G championship last year. There is no reason they can't do something like that. But history is against MSU in this one.

11/23/13 at Northwestern * Evanston, Ill.

Northwestern is always a dangerous team, but if MSU's offense is just decent in this one, the Spartans should win.

11/30/13 vs. Minnesota * East Lansing, Mich.

Minnesota will be tougher this year than usual, so this is no gimme. Still, this is a game the Spartans should win, if they are focused.

Upshot

I really think MSU has a good shot to go 11-1 in the regular season, as long their quarterbacks don't collapse or they suffer catastrophic injuries. At worst, I expect the Spartans to be 9-3 in the regular season, and I think that outcome should be considered disappointing. The Spartans are too loaded on D and they just need to "regress to the mean" on offense, and that should be enough to power them past most of the regular season schedule. 

If they do get to 11-1 then they will very likely be playing for the B1G championship, probably against Ohio State. Can they win that one? I think they have a good chance, but it will certainly depend upon how the quarterbacks are playing by that time. I'll call this game a toss-up and throw it to the Spartans - cuz I'm a Spartan slappy! 

So the Spartans get to 12-1 and play in a BCS bowl against one of the top tier SEC teams. They play tough, and lose a close one. And they end the season at 12-2.