OK, time to predict how MSU will do this season. This task is fraught with danger, since there are always unforeseen factors that can work for or against the Spartans (e.g, injuries, weather, the emergence of a superstar, good/bad calls by referees, etc., etc.). The way I like to think about things, therefore, is in terms of chance or probabilities. As you'll notice below, I think the probabilities are on the Spartans' side this year, but that doesn't guarantee that they'll win the games they're supposed to win.
08/31/12 vs. Boise State
The Spartans have major advantages in terms of experience, but Boise State is always always dangerous. If these teams played 10 times, the Spartans would win 7 of them.
09/08/12 at Central Michigan
Central Michigan has been down a few years and I don't expect them to be much better this year. They will likely be tougher than last year, especially because they are playing at home. But MSU would beat them 9 out of 10 times -- the only way the Spartans lose is if they show up unfocused.
09/15/12 vs. Notre Dame
Notre Dame is always dangerous because of the incredible talent they can recruit. However, they won't match up as well with the Spartans this year as they did last year. Michael Floyd is gone and so is Aaron Lynch (who the Spartan O-line absolutely could not stop). MSU would beat them 7 out of 10 times.
09/22/12 vs. Eastern Michigan
Eastern Michigan has improved under former Wolverine defensive coordinator Ron English. This is a dangerous game if the Spartans take them lightly. If MSU is focused, they should win comfortably. MSU would win 9 out of 10 times.
09/29/12 vs. Ohio State
Ohio State will be better than last year, but they will need another year before they get back to elite status. The Spartans are also at home. So MSU wins this one 6 out of 10 times.
10/06/12 at Indiana
Indiana will likely be among the worst 3 teams in the B1G this year, so MSU wins this one 8 out of 10 times.
10/13/12 vs. Iowa
Iowa will probably be about as good as they were last year. They will have a senior quarterback, so that adds to their "dangerousness." They are also playing in Spartan Stadium. So MSU would win 7 out of 10 times.
10/20/12 at Michigan
MSU matches up very well with Michigan: MSU's elite secondary will shut down UM's average receivers, MSU's elite D-line will match up well against a thin UM O-line, and MSU's O-line should do well against a weakened UM D-line. They are playing in Ann Arbor, so that makes the game a little tougher. MSU would win 7 out of 10 times.
10/27/12 at Wisconsin
This will be MSU's toughest game of the season. It's tough to win in Madison. On the other hand, Russell Wilson is gone and Danny O'Brien won't be quite as good (though he should be pretty good). Wisconsin also lost a ton of coaching talent, particularly on the offensive side of the ball. This game is as close to a coin flip as there is on the schedule, but MSU would win 5.5 out of 10 times.
11/03/12 vs. Nebraska
Nebraska has MSU's number, but this is the best MSU team in a long time and they are playing in East Lansing. MSU wins 7 out of 10 times.
11/17/12 vs. Northwestern
Northwestern is always dangerous, especially when taken lightly. Still, the dangerous Dan Persa is gone, so MSU wins 8 out 10 times.
11/24/12 at Minnesota
Minnesota almost beat MSU last year, and Jerry Kill seems like a solid coach. This game will be tougher than most people think, but a focused MSU squad can win comfortably. MSU would win 8 out of 10 times.
I know it makes me look like a Spartan slappy, but I'm going to go with the probabilities I just laid out and predict that the Spartans win 11 or 12 games in the regular season. If they lose one, it will be to Wisconsin, who they will likely meet again in the B1G championship. This time, the Spartans will win the B1G championship, because the probabilities of victory over Wisconsin increase to 6 in 10 on a neutral site. Of course, if they get to 13-0 or 12-1, then we're looking at a possibility of a national championship. If they get to the national championship game and face a top team like Alabama, their chances of winning that game are about 4 in 10. I don't think MSU is quite developed enough this year to beat one of the top 3 teams in the country. As I've written before, I think 2013 is MSU's year. But then, I've been wrong about many things, so maybe 2012 will be their year! Woohoohoo!
Final record: 12-2
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ReplyDeleteI'm sorry I love MSU, but your math doesn't make any sense.
ReplyDelete0.7+0.9+0.7+0.9+0.6+0.8+0.7+0.7+0.55+0.7+0.8+0.8 = 8.75 wins
IMO MSU's regular season will most likely be 9-3, with 10-2 next most likely. I would up the probability of games like CMU, EMU, Indiana, Northwestern, and Minnesota. Are you forgetting how bad CMU, EMU, and Indiana are? Also, think about how on average every week, only about 2 top-25 teams lose to an unranked team... that's less than 10%.
I'm also a little loftier on beating Boise State and Iowa, and a little less of Wisconsin and Michigan (due to being away). I think it looks more like:
0.75+0.99+0.7+0.99+0.6+0.95+0.8+0.6+0.5+0.7+0.9+0.85 = 9.33 wins
which holds proof on my prediction of 9-3 regular season being most likely, and 10-2 next most likely. I also believe 10-2 will win the division. 9-3 might win the division as well, if one of those 9 wins is from beating Michigan (who I think goes 8-4, but one loss is to Alabama in non-conference play). If we do get there, we will win the Big Ten championship game 65% of the time.
One last thing, it's still quite possible that MSU can go 12-0. Using my numbers:
0.8*0.99*0.7*0.99*0.6*0.95*0.7*0.6*0.5*0.7*0.9*0.85
= 3.77% chance of winning 12 games.
Using your numbers:
0.7*0.9*0.7*0.9*0.6*0.8*0.7*0.7*0.55*0.7*0.8*0.8
= 2.3% chance of winning 12 games.
What do you think about this... do you think your x/10 numbers are off, or do you think that 8.75 wins on average is where this team falls?
Thanks for the comment. I don't add up the probabilities the way you did to get a win total. The point I'm making is that MSU should be considered the better team in all of its games. But the best team doesn't always win because of random factors like injuries and referees. MSU would be able to prove that it was the better team if the teams could play 10 times, but of course, they can only play once (perhaps twice if they meet again in the B1G championship).
ReplyDeleteI agree with you that some of the probabilities could be tweaked in the ways you mentioned. But my main point is that MSU is the best team in every one of its games, except that the Wisconsin game may be more of a coin flip than I suggested.
Of course, these probabilities are just my best guess. We will never know what the probabilities actually are because the teams can't play each other more than once.