Needing a Good Surprise

A while ago I wrote about how success in college football depends a lot on surprises.  I pointed out that MSU had a good season in 2011 in part because of the surprisingly good play of the linebackers.  Remember?  There was supposed to be a dropoff because of the loss of Greg Jones and Erick Gordon.  In fact, the 2011 linebackers may have been even better than 2010's.  On the other hand, MSU was supposed to have a strong running game, but the O-line struggled so much that MSU's running game came close to last in the B1G.

The obvious surprise MSU needs this year is in the passing game.  We all know that MSU lost Kirk Cousins and its top 3 receivers.  That topic has received plenty of attention in the local media, so I won't say much about it.  The talent in the passing game may actually be better than ever, but we'll have to see if it's enough to overcome the inexperience.  Hopefully, the passing game is not surprisingly awful.

Since this team is really talented, I think it's safe to focus on possible negative surprises.  Let's start with the D-line.  Everyone expects the D-line to be dominant, perhaps even better than last year's.  We expect Anthony Rashad White to pick up where Jerel Worthy left off, and we expect William Golston and Marcus Rush to be even better defensive ends than they were last year.  Tyler Hoover and James Kittredge should also be able to take over for Kevin Pickelmen.

But what if Worthy was actually more special than we know?  I'm telling you, Worthy was a game changer.  He made several plays in several games (vs Ohio State, Michigan, and Wisconsin) that completely shut down the opposing teams' offense.  What if none of our DTs this year can match his disruptiveness?  I think our guys are excellent, but there's always the possibility that Worthy's game-changing ability was more critical to last year's success than we imagine.

The other negative surprise I can imagine is the O-line.  Now, it would take a huge surprise for this year's O-line to play worse than last year's.  I don't think we have to worry much about that scenario.  But what if the O-line turns out to be just mediocre?  Unfortunately, MSU can't afford to have a mediocre line this year.  First of all, the B1G is loaded with talented defensive lines this year.  And second, MSU absolutely must have a strong running game this year.

Last year, the Spartans were able to overcome the weakness of their running game by relying on their strong passing game.  This year, the running game needs to make up for the weakness of the passing game.  Therefore, we can't have a mediocre line.  We need a line that will open holes for the running backs and that will keep pressure off Andrew Maxwell.  A mediocre line would pretty much mean a weak MSU offense.

If I was gambling man, I would bet that MSU will not suffer the negative surprises.  Their D and O lines will be excellent.  I would also bet that MSU will get its good surprise.  Maxwell and the receivers will turn out to be more explosive than expected.  That's why I think MSU will win the B1G and end up in a BCS bowl.