Well, this one hurts. There were some positive signs, but there were also some clear signs that MSU's key problems are long term.
Offense
First of all, Maxwell is getting there. I thought he looked really solid today. He missed a few. But otherwise, it is more clear to me now that Maxwell will graduate as MSU's best quarterback ever -- as long as he has some weapons to throw to next year. I see Maxwell developing into a first or second round pick by the end of his senior year.
The receivers made noticeable improvements, but they are still killing drives with their drops. At least, we can now say that Keith Mumphery is emerging. He is very close to becoming a consistent go-to receiver. I think he'll get there by the UM game. Fowler and Lippett have so much potential, but they still look like they will need several more weeks before they are not playing like freshmen. Fowler may not have things figured out by the UM game, but he probably will by the end of the season. Lippett looks like he's going to need about a year to get to where he needs to be. Folks, it's frustrating to go through these growing pains, but we at least have to admit that these guys will be outstanding next year. The talent is there, and we saw some flashes of it today.
Where the talent is not is on the offensive line. They are relatively young, and that explains the mistakes. But MSU simply does not possess the kind of talent on the o-line that can play against good d-lines like Notre Dame's and OSU's. The running game disappears every time this o-line encounters a good d-line. This o-line is good enough to deal with 80% of FBS defenses, but if the Spartans want to compete for a national title any time soon, they will need to upgrade their o-line talent. The positive is that next year's o-line will be Dantonio's best line yet -- especially if Fonoti returns. Dantonio's o-lines have been improving steadily every year. Nonetheless, they will still struggle against Notre Dame and OSU. That's why I think they need to get at least two more recruits this year that will improve the talent on the o-line. They need Caleb Benenoch.
Defense
The defense was pretty good, today. But they had their struggles against the spread and Braxton Miller. Unfortunately, Miller and OSU will be even tougher to beat in the coming years.
Boy, I guess we just have to budget in Johnny Adams getting burned for a long touchdown at least once per game. I suppose that's bound to happen when you play an aggressive style of defense. That kind of mistake wouldn't hurt so much if the offense could score some points.
Special teams
The little things add up. Conroy missed the easy field goal and then buried three long ones. He needs to improve from converting 3 out of 4, to coverting at least 80% of his kicks.
Why is it that I (a football nobody) saw the blocked punt coming as early as the first quarter and the coaches didn't do anything to prevent it until after it happened? Fortunately, OSU turned the ball over right away, but that could have been disastrous.
Upshot
The most painful part of this loss is that MSU is blowing it's opportunity to cement itself as one of the B1G's elite teams. Beating weaker OSU and UM teams this year would have certainly helped MSU with its recruiting and may have catapulted this program into prolonged eliteness. Now MSU is going to have to do it the hard way. They are going to have to beat strengthened OSU and UM teams next year.
Nobody is really to blame, in this one. The problem is simply that it is not easy to replace your entire passing game. Remember, MSU lost a starting quarterback, three starting wide receivers, and two starting tight ends. I had hoped it wouldn't be so difficult to overcome such losses, but mine is only a fools hope.
As for the rest of this year, the Spartans now face Indiana and then Iowa, before facing Michigan. I expect them to beat Indiana and Iowa. If the receivers can improve each week as much as they improved this game, then I think MSU will be ready to beat UM and may go on to win the Leaders division. If the receivers don't improve, or if they regress, then we're looking at a certain loss against UM and maybe even Iowa. Then we can even start talking about missing a bowl game.
Saturday, September 29, 2012
Thursday, September 27, 2012
Preview of Ohio State Game
So I was wrong about last week. It turns out that playing a weak opponent can help you learn some important things about your team, particularly bad things. We learned most importantly that MSU's receivers are in worse shape than we could have ever imagined. I expected struggles, but not six-dropped-passes-in-the-first-half kind of struggles. Things were so bad that it certainly did appear that the coaches made the conscious decision to stop throwing to the receivers in the second half. They basically decided to run Bell and throw to Dion Sims. Luckily, that was enough against Eastern.
Unfortunately, that won't be enough against OSU. Granted, OSU is not exactly elite at the moment. They are ranked 33rd in total defense and 26th in total offense. And they haven't exactly played any powerhouses. But MSU's offense is struggling so much that I can't see them scoring enough even against a mediocre OSU defense.
OSU's secondary is worlds better than Eastern's, so if the wide receivers struggled last week, then they will likely be nonexistent this week. I pray for a good surprise -- wouldn't it be great to see breakout performances by any 2 of the 6 or 7 receivers MSU is throwing out there? -- but I'm not gonna bet my Sparty shirt on it. I'm old enough now to know how life works. Charlie Brown and I know how life works . . . .
So I'm basically expecting MSU to try to run the ball with Bell and to try to target Sims. Unfortunately, OSU doesn't have to work very hard to take those two weapons away. They're going to stack the box and put a corner on Sims. They're probably going to dare the receivers to beat them, and I just don't see the receivers rising to meet the challenge. Let me be clear, the receivers are talented and will end up being the best group of receivers MSU has ever had. But they are suffering from mental issues right now, and those can take quite a bit of time to solve. They won't have them solved by the OSU game.
The O-line will also struggle against OSU's excellent D-line, though perhaps not as much as they struggled against Notre Dame. This will hamper the running game and also cause Maxwell to struggle a bit.
All of this suggests that MSU will probably only score about 10 points.
The defense will play well again and should slow down Miller and the rest of the OSU offense to the tune of about 20 points. Unfortunately, that will be enough for OSU to win the game.
Prediction: MSU 10 OSU 20
Unfortunately, that won't be enough against OSU. Granted, OSU is not exactly elite at the moment. They are ranked 33rd in total defense and 26th in total offense. And they haven't exactly played any powerhouses. But MSU's offense is struggling so much that I can't see them scoring enough even against a mediocre OSU defense.
OSU's secondary is worlds better than Eastern's, so if the wide receivers struggled last week, then they will likely be nonexistent this week. I pray for a good surprise -- wouldn't it be great to see breakout performances by any 2 of the 6 or 7 receivers MSU is throwing out there? -- but I'm not gonna bet my Sparty shirt on it. I'm old enough now to know how life works. Charlie Brown and I know how life works . . . .
So I'm basically expecting MSU to try to run the ball with Bell and to try to target Sims. Unfortunately, OSU doesn't have to work very hard to take those two weapons away. They're going to stack the box and put a corner on Sims. They're probably going to dare the receivers to beat them, and I just don't see the receivers rising to meet the challenge. Let me be clear, the receivers are talented and will end up being the best group of receivers MSU has ever had. But they are suffering from mental issues right now, and those can take quite a bit of time to solve. They won't have them solved by the OSU game.
The O-line will also struggle against OSU's excellent D-line, though perhaps not as much as they struggled against Notre Dame. This will hamper the running game and also cause Maxwell to struggle a bit.
All of this suggests that MSU will probably only score about 10 points.
The defense will play well again and should slow down Miller and the rest of the OSU offense to the tune of about 20 points. Unfortunately, that will be enough for OSU to win the game.
Prediction: MSU 10 OSU 20
Sunday, September 23, 2012
Recruiting 2014: Deon Drake
The Spartans received a commitment today from Michigan outside linebacker Deon Drake. This is a big one for the Spartans.
Evaluations
Drake is still a junior, so he has only been evaluated by 247, which considers him a 4-star recruit. At this point, we can probably get a better sense of how good Drake is by looking at his offers. Depending on which sites you believe, it looks like he has offers from places like Notre Dame, Iowa, Nebraska, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh.
Measurables
Drake is approximately 6'1" and about 220 lbs. That's a solid size for an outside linebacker. Only ESPN has a 40 time for him: 4.83 seconds. That's not particularly fast for his position. Let's see what his video indicates.
Well, first thing we notice is that his video says he runs the 40 in 4.6 seconds. That's pretty solid. Apart from that, he actually looks pretty impressive for a sophomore. He has enough athleticism to play running back, and he looks like a solid punishing tackler -- did I mention he is a sophomore in this video?
Upshot
Drake is a huge pick up for the Spartans. He is or will be a highly rated recruit, which really gives a strong start to the 2014 class. Drake is the third commit of the 2014 class and it's quite likely that all 3 commits are going to end up as 4-star recruits. The 2014 class is shaping up to be the best class of the Dantonio era.
Drake also comes from Cass Tech High, the talent goldmine and UM pipeline. The Spartans now have commitments from two Cass Tech guys (including OT Dennis Finley).
Drake is the second linebacker commit of the 2014 class (along with Byron Bullough) and this is likely all the linebackers the Spartans will take, unless they can add a 5-star guy. I gotta wear shades, the future is so bright.
Evaluations
Drake is still a junior, so he has only been evaluated by 247, which considers him a 4-star recruit. At this point, we can probably get a better sense of how good Drake is by looking at his offers. Depending on which sites you believe, it looks like he has offers from places like Notre Dame, Iowa, Nebraska, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh.
Measurables
Drake is approximately 6'1" and about 220 lbs. That's a solid size for an outside linebacker. Only ESPN has a 40 time for him: 4.83 seconds. That's not particularly fast for his position. Let's see what his video indicates.
Well, first thing we notice is that his video says he runs the 40 in 4.6 seconds. That's pretty solid. Apart from that, he actually looks pretty impressive for a sophomore. He has enough athleticism to play running back, and he looks like a solid punishing tackler -- did I mention he is a sophomore in this video?
Upshot
Drake is a huge pick up for the Spartans. He is or will be a highly rated recruit, which really gives a strong start to the 2014 class. Drake is the third commit of the 2014 class and it's quite likely that all 3 commits are going to end up as 4-star recruits. The 2014 class is shaping up to be the best class of the Dantonio era.
Drake also comes from Cass Tech High, the talent goldmine and UM pipeline. The Spartans now have commitments from two Cass Tech guys (including OT Dennis Finley).
Drake is the second linebacker commit of the 2014 class (along with Byron Bullough) and this is likely all the linebackers the Spartans will take, unless they can add a 5-star guy. I gotta wear shades, the future is so bright.
All Hands on Deck! Time to Get Creative with Receivers
The receivers will be a strength . . . next year. This year, they are crashing the offense. They are simply unable to catch and hold on to the ball with enough consistency. And so, I think it's time to take drastic measures. MSU cannot survive without a passing game, but they can't rely on the current group of receivers. What to do, then?
I think it's time to put guys in there that can catch the ball and hold on to it, regardless of what position they were intended to play. I'm talking about guys like Lawrence Thomas and I'm talking about getting more tight ends and running backs in there. Whatever! All hands on deck!
LT has caught every reasonable pass thrown at him thus far, and Andrew Gleichert seems to have some decent hands. Why not throw some more passes their way? I don't know what the other tight ends look like, but if any one of them is showing good hands at the practices, the coaches need to consider using them instead of the receivers. I don't care if they have to burn redshirts!
Can Nick Hill catch the ball? I know Caper is supposed to have decent hands -- though he did drop one earlier this season. What about the other running backs?
I hate to say it, but MSU needs to look at what UM has done with their receivers. Coming into this season, UM's receiving situation looked to be about as bad as MSU's. Then they converted a quarterback into an adequate receiver and started a freshman tight end. Suddenly, their receiving situation looks much better than MSU's.
Look, MSU's receivers are very talented and should actually be spectacular next year. But the inexperience is obviously a problem. If MSU wants to win even 8 games this year, they need to stop banging their head against a wall and try something different. It might be as simple as using 2 tight ends more often, or dumping the ball off to LT 3 or 4 times a game. I don't know, but something has to change.
I think it's time to put guys in there that can catch the ball and hold on to it, regardless of what position they were intended to play. I'm talking about guys like Lawrence Thomas and I'm talking about getting more tight ends and running backs in there. Whatever! All hands on deck!
LT has caught every reasonable pass thrown at him thus far, and Andrew Gleichert seems to have some decent hands. Why not throw some more passes their way? I don't know what the other tight ends look like, but if any one of them is showing good hands at the practices, the coaches need to consider using them instead of the receivers. I don't care if they have to burn redshirts!
Can Nick Hill catch the ball? I know Caper is supposed to have decent hands -- though he did drop one earlier this season. What about the other running backs?
I hate to say it, but MSU needs to look at what UM has done with their receivers. Coming into this season, UM's receiving situation looked to be about as bad as MSU's. Then they converted a quarterback into an adequate receiver and started a freshman tight end. Suddenly, their receiving situation looks much better than MSU's.
Look, MSU's receivers are very talented and should actually be spectacular next year. But the inexperience is obviously a problem. If MSU wants to win even 8 games this year, they need to stop banging their head against a wall and try something different. It might be as simple as using 2 tight ends more often, or dumping the ball off to LT 3 or 4 times a game. I don't know, but something has to change.
Saturday, September 22, 2012
Thoughts on Eastern Michigan Game
Well folks, it's time to panic. I realize that there may be some degree to which MSU played down to the level of their opponents, but this game has me drastically revising down my expectations for this season.
Offense
-The offense is flat-out bad and we've seen enough games now to understand that it's going to struggle the rest of the season. I think the best we can hope for is that they make some progress throughout the season, just don't expect any miracles. This offense will cost the Spartans at least 4 more games and it is bad enough to cost them as many as 6 games.
- LeVeon Bell and Dion Sims were the offense, today. I'm happy for them, but this is not going to be enough against the good teams.
- The receivers are simply killing this offense. It turns out that replacing 3 starting receivers was simply too much of a task. Apart from Dion Sims, the Spartans don't have a go-to guy. They don't even have a guy that can make more than 2 catches in a row without a drop or a fumble. Their struggles against Eastern lead me to believe that the receivers will be nonexistent against OSU. The Spartans may want to think about running the triple option next week.
- Maxwell keeps playing OK, but his accuracy is not quite where it needs to be. The receivers are just not good enough to deal with a little inaccuracy.
- The offensive line looked OK. They seemed to do well in run-blocking, considering that Eastern just lined up to stop the run. They also gave Maxwell decent time to throw.
Defense
- The defense continues to get burned on long passes. Other teams have figured this out, but the secondary and the coaches seem unable to adjust.
- The defensive line was actually dominated at times by Eastern's offensive line. And what is going on with Gholston? All of this is not confidence-inspiring.
Special Teams
- There were a couple of articles this week about how confident Mark Dantonio was with the special teams. Well, Conroy missed another field goal, Hill muffed a punt, and Sadler shanked several punts . . . what else? A struggling offense needs all the points and field-position help it can get, and these special teams are just making things worse.
Upshot
As I said, MSU's poor play today may be due in part to the fact that it played down to the level of its competition. But overall, I think this team is in trouble. The offense is totally dependent on 2 playmakers and the defense has shown that it has several chinks in its armor. This formula won't go far in the B1G. And so, I now think this team will likely end up winning no more than 8 games. Just goes to show how important it is to be well-stocked at all positions, year after year. Having to completely re-load at receiver is just too difficult.
Offense
-The offense is flat-out bad and we've seen enough games now to understand that it's going to struggle the rest of the season. I think the best we can hope for is that they make some progress throughout the season, just don't expect any miracles. This offense will cost the Spartans at least 4 more games and it is bad enough to cost them as many as 6 games.
- LeVeon Bell and Dion Sims were the offense, today. I'm happy for them, but this is not going to be enough against the good teams.
- The receivers are simply killing this offense. It turns out that replacing 3 starting receivers was simply too much of a task. Apart from Dion Sims, the Spartans don't have a go-to guy. They don't even have a guy that can make more than 2 catches in a row without a drop or a fumble. Their struggles against Eastern lead me to believe that the receivers will be nonexistent against OSU. The Spartans may want to think about running the triple option next week.
- Maxwell keeps playing OK, but his accuracy is not quite where it needs to be. The receivers are just not good enough to deal with a little inaccuracy.
- The offensive line looked OK. They seemed to do well in run-blocking, considering that Eastern just lined up to stop the run. They also gave Maxwell decent time to throw.
Defense
- The defense continues to get burned on long passes. Other teams have figured this out, but the secondary and the coaches seem unable to adjust.
- The defensive line was actually dominated at times by Eastern's offensive line. And what is going on with Gholston? All of this is not confidence-inspiring.
Special Teams
- There were a couple of articles this week about how confident Mark Dantonio was with the special teams. Well, Conroy missed another field goal, Hill muffed a punt, and Sadler shanked several punts . . . what else? A struggling offense needs all the points and field-position help it can get, and these special teams are just making things worse.
Upshot
As I said, MSU's poor play today may be due in part to the fact that it played down to the level of its competition. But overall, I think this team is in trouble. The offense is totally dependent on 2 playmakers and the defense has shown that it has several chinks in its armor. This formula won't go far in the B1G. And so, I now think this team will likely end up winning no more than 8 games. Just goes to show how important it is to be well-stocked at all positions, year after year. Having to completely re-load at receiver is just too difficult.
Thursday, September 20, 2012
Preview of Eastern Michigan Game
This is not the kind of game you want to play after losing a tough one. We are not going to learn anything new about the Spartans. In fact, if anything, the Spartans should pound the Eagles and dominate them in all facets of the game, and that could lull us into thinking that the game against Notre Dame was a fluke. I would rather be playing Ohio State this week so that we could actually learn something useful. If the Spartans beat Ohio State, then we can be happy again. We can actually begin to dream about the Rose Bowl. If they beat Eastern, we still have to live with that uneasy feeling in the pit of our stomachs that this team can smoke the cupcakes, but can't hang with the elites.
I suppose that one nice thing about playing Eastern is that the Spartans obviously still need to keep working on their offense. Eastern should allow the offense to work on a lot of things, while resting key players after one half of play. Eastern is giving up over 40 points a game, so like the CMU game, we will likely see up to 7 receivers getting a chance to catch the ball. Like I said, though, an 8-catch game by Bennie Fowler will feel a little hollow. We know he can do it against the cupcakes, but he needs to be able to do it against the top-tier teams.
In this game I at least need to see some consistency from the receivers. Keith Mumphery actually had a solid game against Notre Dame. Now I need to see him play 2 solid games in a row. No receiver has done that yet. Tony Lippett needs to have a big game. He has struggled mightily up to this point. Don't get me wrong, I think Lippett has the potential to be a star by the time he graduates, but I may start to doubt that if he is unable to make some plays against less talented defenders.
I also want to see Andrew Maxwell play a complete game. He needs to start strong and end strong. I see flashes of brilliance from Maxwell that make me believe that he will ultimately be MSU's best quarterback ever. I'll feel more comfortable about that assessment if I see him making noticeable progress in the areas of poise in the pocket and throwing accuracy.
I also need to see the offensive line gelling. Up to this point, the o-line has looked disoriented. If they cannot dominate against the Eagles, folks, they're going to be destroyed by Ohio State. Is it possible that the line is worse this year than last year? Oh what a nasty surprise this could turn out to be.
Finally, I hope to see that the defense has figured out the long bomb. The Spartans cannot continue to give up long passes every game, they need to show that they can adjust. They also need to start putting pressure on the quarterback. They need to make adjustments - perhaps blitzing more from the secondary?
Upshot: MSU should win this one if they are not too heartbroken from last week, or unfocused because they are looking forward to Ohio State. The offense should have a big game and the defense could get their shutout.
Final Score: MSU 47 Eagles 6
I suppose that one nice thing about playing Eastern is that the Spartans obviously still need to keep working on their offense. Eastern should allow the offense to work on a lot of things, while resting key players after one half of play. Eastern is giving up over 40 points a game, so like the CMU game, we will likely see up to 7 receivers getting a chance to catch the ball. Like I said, though, an 8-catch game by Bennie Fowler will feel a little hollow. We know he can do it against the cupcakes, but he needs to be able to do it against the top-tier teams.
In this game I at least need to see some consistency from the receivers. Keith Mumphery actually had a solid game against Notre Dame. Now I need to see him play 2 solid games in a row. No receiver has done that yet. Tony Lippett needs to have a big game. He has struggled mightily up to this point. Don't get me wrong, I think Lippett has the potential to be a star by the time he graduates, but I may start to doubt that if he is unable to make some plays against less talented defenders.
I also want to see Andrew Maxwell play a complete game. He needs to start strong and end strong. I see flashes of brilliance from Maxwell that make me believe that he will ultimately be MSU's best quarterback ever. I'll feel more comfortable about that assessment if I see him making noticeable progress in the areas of poise in the pocket and throwing accuracy.
I also need to see the offensive line gelling. Up to this point, the o-line has looked disoriented. If they cannot dominate against the Eagles, folks, they're going to be destroyed by Ohio State. Is it possible that the line is worse this year than last year? Oh what a nasty surprise this could turn out to be.
Finally, I hope to see that the defense has figured out the long bomb. The Spartans cannot continue to give up long passes every game, they need to show that they can adjust. They also need to start putting pressure on the quarterback. They need to make adjustments - perhaps blitzing more from the secondary?
Upshot: MSU should win this one if they are not too heartbroken from last week, or unfocused because they are looking forward to Ohio State. The offense should have a big game and the defense could get their shutout.
Final Score: MSU 47 Eagles 6
Saturday, September 15, 2012
Thoughts on Notre Dame Game
Well, we found out quite a bit about the Spartans in this game.
Offense
- It turns out that the O-line is not the strength we thought it was, going into the season. They are not physically elite, and they looked lost. MSU simply has to recruit more physically gifted O-linemen.
- The receivers are much more of a liability than I had hoped they would be. They dropped too many passes, and had trouble separating from a weak Notre Dame secondary.
- Maxwell played OK, but he needs to improve his accuracy a bit more and he has to get better at feeling pressure and getting rid of the ball.
Defense
- The defense is still pretty good, but opposing coaches now see a way to score enough points on this defense. That is, you try to beat the secondary with some long bombs, especially in the early part of the game. MSU's secondary has given up big plays on long passes in 3 of the last 4 games (dating back to the Outback Bowl). If opposing quarterbacks were a little more accurate, MSU would give up quite a few points per game on long bombs.
- The defensive line can stop the run, but they are not getting to the quarterback as well as last year. Other teams may have figured something out, but I also wonder if the D-line put on too much mass this year. Gholston, in particular, looks huge, but he doesn't look as fast as he did in the Outback Bowl.
Upshot
In sum, this MSU team has many pieces in place, but the offense is a year away from being adequate. MSU's offense now makes me believe that this team will not beat OSU, and they may even lose to Purdue, if they have to face them in the B1G championship game -- Kawan Short will demolish this O-line. Thankfully, the weakness of the B1G may still allow the Spartans to win 11 games this season. I had extremely high hopes for this year, but I'll settle for another 11-win season.
As for future, I expect Maxwell and the receivers to be a strength next year. And next year's O-line will be very experienced and deep, and should be MSU's best line under Dantonio. Nonetheless, this game makes me think that the lack of elite O-line recruits could be what keeps MSU from winning a national championship over the next few years.
Unfortunately, the Spartans only have 1 O-line recruit for the class of 2013 and they only have about 3 scholarships left. I think they now need to think about taking 3 O-linemen in this class, especially if they can significantly improve the talent on the roster. A guy like Caleb Benenoch has to be a top priority, and if they can't get top high school talent, then they may need to scour the junior colleges for talent.
I don't want to panic about this stuff. I mean, even if things stay as they are, MSU will be one of the top 3 teams in the B1G for years to come. But I do think that the O-line is the area that will keep Dantonio from winning the national championship at MSU, and worst of all, it could be what allows OSU and UM to leap/stay ahead of MSU.
Offense
- It turns out that the O-line is not the strength we thought it was, going into the season. They are not physically elite, and they looked lost. MSU simply has to recruit more physically gifted O-linemen.
- The receivers are much more of a liability than I had hoped they would be. They dropped too many passes, and had trouble separating from a weak Notre Dame secondary.
- Maxwell played OK, but he needs to improve his accuracy a bit more and he has to get better at feeling pressure and getting rid of the ball.
Defense
- The defense is still pretty good, but opposing coaches now see a way to score enough points on this defense. That is, you try to beat the secondary with some long bombs, especially in the early part of the game. MSU's secondary has given up big plays on long passes in 3 of the last 4 games (dating back to the Outback Bowl). If opposing quarterbacks were a little more accurate, MSU would give up quite a few points per game on long bombs.
- The defensive line can stop the run, but they are not getting to the quarterback as well as last year. Other teams may have figured something out, but I also wonder if the D-line put on too much mass this year. Gholston, in particular, looks huge, but he doesn't look as fast as he did in the Outback Bowl.
Upshot
In sum, this MSU team has many pieces in place, but the offense is a year away from being adequate. MSU's offense now makes me believe that this team will not beat OSU, and they may even lose to Purdue, if they have to face them in the B1G championship game -- Kawan Short will demolish this O-line. Thankfully, the weakness of the B1G may still allow the Spartans to win 11 games this season. I had extremely high hopes for this year, but I'll settle for another 11-win season.
As for future, I expect Maxwell and the receivers to be a strength next year. And next year's O-line will be very experienced and deep, and should be MSU's best line under Dantonio. Nonetheless, this game makes me think that the lack of elite O-line recruits could be what keeps MSU from winning a national championship over the next few years.
Unfortunately, the Spartans only have 1 O-line recruit for the class of 2013 and they only have about 3 scholarships left. I think they now need to think about taking 3 O-linemen in this class, especially if they can significantly improve the talent on the roster. A guy like Caleb Benenoch has to be a top priority, and if they can't get top high school talent, then they may need to scour the junior colleges for talent.
I don't want to panic about this stuff. I mean, even if things stay as they are, MSU will be one of the top 3 teams in the B1G for years to come. But I do think that the O-line is the area that will keep Dantonio from winning the national championship at MSU, and worst of all, it could be what allows OSU and UM to leap/stay ahead of MSU.
Friday, September 14, 2012
Tony Lippett on Tyler Eifert?
It ain't gonna happen, but I sure do wish Lippett was still a cornerback -- just for this game. Lippett is 6' 3" and thus would probably have been the MSU defensive back best suited for covering Notre Dame's elite tight end Tyler Eifert, who is 6' 6". Don't get me wrong, I think Lippett would still have needed help, but I think he could have given Eifert a battle. Oh well, just a thought I wanted to share. Otherwise, I expect the Spartans to use a combination of cornerbacks, safeties, and linebackers to try to stop Eifert. I would almost always put 2 guys on him, especially since Everett Golson seems to want to throw to him every time. I say, let Adams and Dennard take out ND's other receivers and put 2 other guys on Eifert. Anyway, I'm sure Nardawg and Dantonio have come up with a much better plan. Can't wait for the game!
Thursday, September 13, 2012
Spartans Need to Do More Tressel Ball
Former Ohio State coach Jim Tressel was known for developing what many perceived as a boring football strategy, in which you understand that scoring is going to be difficult and thus: you rely on a strong defense and special teams, you don't take many risks, and you minimize mistakes (turnovers and penalties). In my view, Tressel ball is a strategy you don't need to use in every game. Against weaker opponents you can take more risks and experiment with some things. But against tough opponents (especially those with good defenses) Tressel Ball is a must.
If the MSU coaching staff has one flaw, it's that they frequently fail to recognize that a game has turned into a Tressel Ball game. We saw that last year against Notre Dame, for example. The Spartans were down 21 to 10 as the first half was coming to an end. They could have walked away with 3 points by taking a very short field goal attempt. That would have brought the score to 21 to 13, with the Spartans getting the ball at the start of the second half. Instead of taking a sure field goal, however, Dantonio opted for a fake field that Notre Dame and everyone else in the stadium could see coming. Needless to say, the fake failed, and the Spartans left precious points on the table. The Spartans probably would have still lost the game, but taking every point they could get would have maximized their probability of winning.
The coaches almost made the same mistake against Boise. Instead of taking 3 points to end the half, they went for a long touchdown pass that was intercepted. It just didn't make sense. Maxwell was clearly struggling, and the opportunity was there to tie the game. In the second half, the Spartans were having success moving the ball with the standard "pound Green, pound" approach. Suddenly, Roushar calls a reverse that gets stuffed for a huge loss and that kills the drive. The Spartans won that game because they finally stopped screwing around in the fourth quarter.
Folks, this Saturday is shaping up to be another Tressel Ball game. While I expect the Spartan D to keep Notre Dame's scoring low, the Spartan O will probably struggle to score points. So the Spartan coaches need to take the field goals when they can, and leave the fakes for another day. They also need to be trying to win the field-position battles. That means: don't take unnecessary risks when you're actually having some success driving the ball down the field, and most importantly of all don't kick/punt the ball to George Atkinson III. It really breaks my heart when the defense plays so well and yet the opposing team is scoring points because of poor field position, pick-sixes, and poor special teams plays.
So here's the bottom line. A Tressel Ball game actually favors the Spartans. MSU's defense will be stout enough to keep Notre Dame's offense from scoring more than 10 points. And MSU has enough offensive firepower to put up 17 points against Notre Dame's defense -- even if they just play a boring "pound Green pound" strategy. MSU should win this game, as long as the coaches stick to Tressel Ball.
If the MSU coaching staff has one flaw, it's that they frequently fail to recognize that a game has turned into a Tressel Ball game. We saw that last year against Notre Dame, for example. The Spartans were down 21 to 10 as the first half was coming to an end. They could have walked away with 3 points by taking a very short field goal attempt. That would have brought the score to 21 to 13, with the Spartans getting the ball at the start of the second half. Instead of taking a sure field goal, however, Dantonio opted for a fake field that Notre Dame and everyone else in the stadium could see coming. Needless to say, the fake failed, and the Spartans left precious points on the table. The Spartans probably would have still lost the game, but taking every point they could get would have maximized their probability of winning.
The coaches almost made the same mistake against Boise. Instead of taking 3 points to end the half, they went for a long touchdown pass that was intercepted. It just didn't make sense. Maxwell was clearly struggling, and the opportunity was there to tie the game. In the second half, the Spartans were having success moving the ball with the standard "pound Green, pound" approach. Suddenly, Roushar calls a reverse that gets stuffed for a huge loss and that kills the drive. The Spartans won that game because they finally stopped screwing around in the fourth quarter.
Folks, this Saturday is shaping up to be another Tressel Ball game. While I expect the Spartan D to keep Notre Dame's scoring low, the Spartan O will probably struggle to score points. So the Spartan coaches need to take the field goals when they can, and leave the fakes for another day. They also need to be trying to win the field-position battles. That means: don't take unnecessary risks when you're actually having some success driving the ball down the field, and most importantly of all don't kick/punt the ball to George Atkinson III. It really breaks my heart when the defense plays so well and yet the opposing team is scoring points because of poor field position, pick-sixes, and poor special teams plays.
So here's the bottom line. A Tressel Ball game actually favors the Spartans. MSU's defense will be stout enough to keep Notre Dame's offense from scoring more than 10 points. And MSU has enough offensive firepower to put up 17 points against Notre Dame's defense -- even if they just play a boring "pound Green pound" strategy. MSU should win this game, as long as the coaches stick to Tressel Ball.
Tuesday, September 11, 2012
Preview of Notre Dame Game
The Spartans face Notre Dame this Saturday, and that makes me nervous. Don't get me wrong, MSU is the better team this year, but Notre Dame will be dangerous and could easily beat the Spartans if they play a sloppy game.
Why Notre Dame's offense could be trouble
Notre Dame's most dangerous weapon is tight end Tyler Eifert. This guy will be a first round pick in the NFL draft and he is extremely difficult to stop. He did suffer a concussion against Purdue, but it looks like Notre Dame is planning to play him against MSU.
Notre Dame also has some solid running backs. Theo Riddick is quick and has good hands.
Tommy Rees looked good in the few minutes he played against Purdue. Everett Golson is supposed to start, but I expect Rees to replace him early. Rees seems to have progressed quite a bit since last year, though that may just reflect the fact that he didn't play a whole game. Still, he could be dangerous.
Why Notre Dame's defense could be trouble
Manti Teo is an elite linebacker who will be a first round draft pick in next year's NFL draft. He did suffer an injury to his sternum against Purdue, but he is expected to play and he will likely still be a force.
Notre Dame's defensive line is nearly elite. They need more experience, but the talent they have is remarkable. Last year, Notre Dame's DL dominated MSU's offensive line. This year's Notre Dame d-line is better, so if MSU's o-line doesn't put things together this week, MSU will not score many points. So far, MSU's o-line has not inspired much confidence.
MSU's advantages
Notre Dame did suffer a lot of injuries against Purdue. Eifert and Teo are the key players to watch. I don't expect their injuries to slow them down much, but they could come into play. For example, how often will Teo want to ram his injured sternum against LeVeon Bell. We'll see if this comes into play in the fourth quarter.
Aaron Lynch is gone! The talented defensive end absolutely dominated MSU's offensive line last year as a freshman. He became homesick, however, and transferred to U of Miami in the off-season.
Michael Floyd is gone! The Spartans had trouble with Floyd last year and Notre Dame does not have any receivers of that caliber this year. They do have Eifert. But the Spartan's elite cornerbacks should allow them to cover Notre Dame's other receivers one-on-one, while Eifert gets double coverage.
MSU is great against the run. Notre Dame has talented running backs, but they will struggle to get yardage against MSU's front 7.
MSU almost has 4 legitimate offensive weapons, now. LeVeon Bell and Dion Sims are already there, Andrew Maxwell and Bennie Folwer are almost there. If the offensive line can be decent, these guys have enough talent to put up 21 points on Notre Dame, and with MSU's defense, that's all they will need.
The game is in East Lansing. MSU has won 15 home games in a row. Add to that the fact that this is one of MSU's best teams in a long long time and you can see why MSU is the favorite in this one.
Upshot
MSU should win this one, as long as they don't play like they did against Boise. MSU is more talented, overall, and has better coaching. But turnovers, penalties, and poor special teams play could still hand the game to Notre Dame. MSU will be a focused team -- no problem there -- but I'm worried about nerves -- particularly the nerves of Maxwell and the receivers, and even the offensive line (which will be challenged).
Prediction: MSU 24 Notre Dame 16
Why Notre Dame's offense could be trouble
Notre Dame's most dangerous weapon is tight end Tyler Eifert. This guy will be a first round pick in the NFL draft and he is extremely difficult to stop. He did suffer a concussion against Purdue, but it looks like Notre Dame is planning to play him against MSU.
Notre Dame also has some solid running backs. Theo Riddick is quick and has good hands.
Tommy Rees looked good in the few minutes he played against Purdue. Everett Golson is supposed to start, but I expect Rees to replace him early. Rees seems to have progressed quite a bit since last year, though that may just reflect the fact that he didn't play a whole game. Still, he could be dangerous.
Why Notre Dame's defense could be trouble
Manti Teo is an elite linebacker who will be a first round draft pick in next year's NFL draft. He did suffer an injury to his sternum against Purdue, but he is expected to play and he will likely still be a force.
Notre Dame's defensive line is nearly elite. They need more experience, but the talent they have is remarkable. Last year, Notre Dame's DL dominated MSU's offensive line. This year's Notre Dame d-line is better, so if MSU's o-line doesn't put things together this week, MSU will not score many points. So far, MSU's o-line has not inspired much confidence.
MSU's advantages
Notre Dame did suffer a lot of injuries against Purdue. Eifert and Teo are the key players to watch. I don't expect their injuries to slow them down much, but they could come into play. For example, how often will Teo want to ram his injured sternum against LeVeon Bell. We'll see if this comes into play in the fourth quarter.
Aaron Lynch is gone! The talented defensive end absolutely dominated MSU's offensive line last year as a freshman. He became homesick, however, and transferred to U of Miami in the off-season.
Michael Floyd is gone! The Spartans had trouble with Floyd last year and Notre Dame does not have any receivers of that caliber this year. They do have Eifert. But the Spartan's elite cornerbacks should allow them to cover Notre Dame's other receivers one-on-one, while Eifert gets double coverage.
MSU is great against the run. Notre Dame has talented running backs, but they will struggle to get yardage against MSU's front 7.
MSU almost has 4 legitimate offensive weapons, now. LeVeon Bell and Dion Sims are already there, Andrew Maxwell and Bennie Folwer are almost there. If the offensive line can be decent, these guys have enough talent to put up 21 points on Notre Dame, and with MSU's defense, that's all they will need.
The game is in East Lansing. MSU has won 15 home games in a row. Add to that the fact that this is one of MSU's best teams in a long long time and you can see why MSU is the favorite in this one.
Upshot
MSU should win this one, as long as they don't play like they did against Boise. MSU is more talented, overall, and has better coaching. But turnovers, penalties, and poor special teams play could still hand the game to Notre Dame. MSU will be a focused team -- no problem there -- but I'm worried about nerves -- particularly the nerves of Maxwell and the receivers, and even the offensive line (which will be challenged).
Prediction: MSU 24 Notre Dame 16
Saturday, September 8, 2012
Thoughts on CMU Game
Well, it went about as expected . . . well, maybe not. MSU was actually more dominant than I expected. Here are a few things that stood out to me:
- CMU is just not that good, right now. We'll see how they do against MAC opponents, but MSU was able to overwhelm them even with a relatively sloppy performance.
- CMU's weakness makes it difficult to judge the performance of MSU, but at least CMU's weakness allowed the Spartans to experiment quite a bit. They were able to do a lot more passing and give LeVeon Bell more of a break. And they were able to play a lot of young guys.
- Speaking of young guys, I guess MSU is concerned enough about the receivers that they were willing to burn the redshirts of Macgarrett Kings and Aaron Burbridge. I think that's a good move. These guys may not make an impact right away, but by the end of the season, they could be making significant contributions.
- Maxwell obviously played pretty well, but CMU's defense didn't really test him.
- Bennie Fowler had a big game at receiver. I hope he's ready to play that way next week and the rest of the year. If Fowler has turned the corner of stardom, that would give MSU 4 very good weapons on offense: Fowler, Maxwell, Bell, and Dion Sims. It would be nice to see them add at least 2 more over the next few weeks; perhaps guys like Larry Caper and Tony Lippett. Imagine the firepower, if those guys can emerge as playmakers.
- Connor Cook looked pretty good as backup QB, except for the interception. He was pretty accurate with his throws and showed a strong arm. Nonetheless, we're definitely in trouble if Maxwell goes down this year. But by next year, MSU will have the QB depth to match the depth on the rest of the team.
- The defense pitched a shut-out, but once again the offense gave up 7 points. I know it was redshirt freshman QB Connor Cook throwing the pick-six, but I hope this is not some foreshadowing of what's to come in one of the key games of the season.
- Even MSU's backups were able to keep the shutout going. Honestly, that just speaks to the amazing recruiting being done by Dantonio and the coaches.
Final thought: MSU is on the verge, folks. If the offense can just get a few more pieces in place and if this team can clean up mistakes, we are looking at a team that could play in the national championship (but probably not win that game). It helps that Michigan and Wisconsin look weaker than expected, though Ohio State and Nebraska look a little stronger. Fortunately, the Spartans get the latter two at home. But let's not get ahead of ourselves. Next week's game against Notre Dame will tell us a whole lot more about who these Spartans are.
Thursday, September 6, 2012
Preview of CMU Game
Just a few years ago, CMU vs MSU was a more entertaining rivalry. But the progress MSU has made under Mark Dantonio and the step backwards that CMU has taken under Dan Enos have turned this game into a major mismatch. Saturday's meeting should also be a mismatch, though perhaps not as bad as last year's, when the Spartans won 45 - 7.
CMU went 3 - 9 last year, and they will probably be considerably better this year. In last week's game against South Carolina State, they put up some impressive offensive numbers (495 yards of total offense). They have a senior quarterback, Ryan Radcliff, who completed 14 of 23 passes for 171 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. They also blew up for 340 yards of rushing (180 by junior Zurlon Tipton, and 111 by sophomore Anthony Garland). On the other hand, they barely beat South Carolina State at home (38 - 27), mainly because their defense gave up 308 yards and they turned the ball over 3 times.
There is always the possibility they were looking ahead to this week, but I don't think that matters much. MSU is so far ahead in terms of talent and coaching that the only way the Spartans lose is if they come in unfocused and overconfident. I just don't see that happening this year. This team is hungry and likely won't take this game for granted.
This is a game in which MSU will have the opportunity to work on any problems it has, particularly the passing game. And I actually expect the receivers and Maxwell to have a huge day. LeVeon Bell won't have to carry the ball even half the amount of times he carried it in the Boise game.
Some numbers: Maxwell throws for 300 yards. At least 2 receivers get 5 catches. Bell runs for 150 yards. The defense holds CMU to less than 200 yards of offense and to 10 points or less.
Some things to keep an eye on: It looks like two defensive positions have still not been settled. Micajah Reynolds and Tyler Hoover are still co-starters at defensive tackle, while Jairus Jones and Kurtis Drummond are still co-starters at free safety. Apparently, DeAnthony Arnett and Aaron Burbridge might see some time at receiver. I'd like to see these guys come in and excel, but I'm also pulling for the current startes. I hope Tony Lippett, in particular, has a huge game.
Final score: MSU 35 CMU 10
CMU went 3 - 9 last year, and they will probably be considerably better this year. In last week's game against South Carolina State, they put up some impressive offensive numbers (495 yards of total offense). They have a senior quarterback, Ryan Radcliff, who completed 14 of 23 passes for 171 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. They also blew up for 340 yards of rushing (180 by junior Zurlon Tipton, and 111 by sophomore Anthony Garland). On the other hand, they barely beat South Carolina State at home (38 - 27), mainly because their defense gave up 308 yards and they turned the ball over 3 times.
There is always the possibility they were looking ahead to this week, but I don't think that matters much. MSU is so far ahead in terms of talent and coaching that the only way the Spartans lose is if they come in unfocused and overconfident. I just don't see that happening this year. This team is hungry and likely won't take this game for granted.
This is a game in which MSU will have the opportunity to work on any problems it has, particularly the passing game. And I actually expect the receivers and Maxwell to have a huge day. LeVeon Bell won't have to carry the ball even half the amount of times he carried it in the Boise game.
Some numbers: Maxwell throws for 300 yards. At least 2 receivers get 5 catches. Bell runs for 150 yards. The defense holds CMU to less than 200 yards of offense and to 10 points or less.
Some things to keep an eye on: It looks like two defensive positions have still not been settled. Micajah Reynolds and Tyler Hoover are still co-starters at defensive tackle, while Jairus Jones and Kurtis Drummond are still co-starters at free safety. Apparently, DeAnthony Arnett and Aaron Burbridge might see some time at receiver. I'd like to see these guys come in and excel, but I'm also pulling for the current startes. I hope Tony Lippett, in particular, has a huge game.
Final score: MSU 35 CMU 10
Monday, September 3, 2012
Recruiting 2014: Byron Bullough
In August, the Spartans received their second commitment in the 2014 class from Michigan linebacker Byron Bullough. As pretty much everyone knows, he is the brother of current Spartan linebackers Max and Riley.
Ratings: Bullough is not rated yet, by any of the recruiting services. He doesn't have many offers, thanks to his very early commitment.
Size: He is a little short (6' 1") for middle linebacker, but his height is adequate for outside linebacker. Of course, he is only a junior, so he may still end up about as tall as Max (6' 3").
Athleticism: Only rivals has a 40 time for him (4.7), which would be a pretty good time for a linebacker. There is no other info on his athleticism, so let's turn to his video.
OK, so like with Drake Harris, we have to remember that he is a sophomore in this video. This helps explain why Bullough doesn't look all that explosive. But he is able to excel, against kids that are likely 1 to 2 years older. And we can see that, on the few defensive plays in which he appears, he has a good instinct for which way the action is heading.
Upshot: Bullough will likely be a pretty solid linebacker by the time he gets to MSU. According to Max, Byron is a better athlete than he was at the same age. The big thing for me is that the Bulloughs come from a football family, a factor that generally produces football intelligence. So there is a high probability that Byron will be a smart and solid player for MSU. It's hard to tell what his ratings will be, but he probably won't be any lower than Riley (who was considered a 3-star recruit) and he may end up as high as Max (4 stars).
Consequences for rest of class: I suspect the Spartans will only take 2 linebackers in 2014, so Bullough's commitment leaves one spot open at that position. They may take 3 linebackers if they can get a 5 star guy to commit late in the process, or if a couple guys leave early for the NFL (like Denicos Allen and Max Bullough).
Ratings: Bullough is not rated yet, by any of the recruiting services. He doesn't have many offers, thanks to his very early commitment.
Size: He is a little short (6' 1") for middle linebacker, but his height is adequate for outside linebacker. Of course, he is only a junior, so he may still end up about as tall as Max (6' 3").
Athleticism: Only rivals has a 40 time for him (4.7), which would be a pretty good time for a linebacker. There is no other info on his athleticism, so let's turn to his video.
OK, so like with Drake Harris, we have to remember that he is a sophomore in this video. This helps explain why Bullough doesn't look all that explosive. But he is able to excel, against kids that are likely 1 to 2 years older. And we can see that, on the few defensive plays in which he appears, he has a good instinct for which way the action is heading.
Upshot: Bullough will likely be a pretty solid linebacker by the time he gets to MSU. According to Max, Byron is a better athlete than he was at the same age. The big thing for me is that the Bulloughs come from a football family, a factor that generally produces football intelligence. So there is a high probability that Byron will be a smart and solid player for MSU. It's hard to tell what his ratings will be, but he probably won't be any lower than Riley (who was considered a 3-star recruit) and he may end up as high as Max (4 stars).
Consequences for rest of class: I suspect the Spartans will only take 2 linebackers in 2014, so Bullough's commitment leaves one spot open at that position. They may take 3 linebackers if they can get a 5 star guy to commit late in the process, or if a couple guys leave early for the NFL (like Denicos Allen and Max Bullough).
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