Saturday, September 29, 2012

Thoughts on OSU Game

Well, this one hurts. There were some positive signs, but there were also some clear signs that MSU's key problems are long term.

Offense

First of all, Maxwell is getting there. I thought he looked really solid today. He missed a few. But otherwise, it is more clear to me now that Maxwell will graduate as MSU's best quarterback ever -- as long as he has some weapons to throw to next year. I see Maxwell developing into a first or second round pick by the end of his senior year.

The receivers made noticeable improvements, but they are still killing drives with their drops. At least, we can now say that Keith Mumphery is emerging. He is very close to becoming a consistent go-to receiver. I think he'll get there by the UM game. Fowler and Lippett have so much potential, but they still look like they will need several more weeks before they are not playing like freshmen. Fowler may not have things figured out by the UM game, but he probably will by the end of the season. Lippett looks like he's going to need about a year to get to where he needs to be. Folks, it's frustrating to go through these growing pains, but we at least have to admit that these guys will be outstanding next year. The talent is there, and we saw some flashes of it today.

Where the talent is not is on the offensive line. They are relatively young, and that explains the mistakes. But MSU simply does not possess the kind of talent on the o-line that can play against good d-lines like Notre Dame's and OSU's. The running game disappears every time this o-line encounters a good d-line. This o-line is good enough to deal with 80% of FBS defenses, but if the Spartans want to compete for a national title any time soon, they will need to upgrade their o-line talent. The positive is that next year's o-line will be Dantonio's best line yet -- especially if Fonoti returns. Dantonio's o-lines have been improving steadily every year. Nonetheless, they will still struggle against Notre Dame and OSU. That's why I think they need to get at least two more recruits this year that will improve the talent on the o-line. They need Caleb Benenoch.

Defense

The defense was pretty good, today. But they had their struggles against the spread and Braxton Miller. Unfortunately, Miller and OSU will be even tougher to beat in the coming years.

Boy, I guess we just have to budget in Johnny Adams getting burned for a long touchdown at least once per game. I suppose that's bound to happen when you play an aggressive style of defense. That kind of mistake wouldn't hurt so much if the offense could score some points.

Special teams

The little things add up. Conroy missed the easy field goal and then buried three long ones. He needs to improve from converting 3 out of 4, to coverting at least 80% of his kicks.

Why is it that I (a football nobody) saw the blocked punt coming as early as the first quarter and the coaches didn't do anything to prevent it until after it happened? Fortunately, OSU turned the ball over right away, but that could have been disastrous.

Upshot

The most painful part of this loss is that MSU is blowing it's opportunity to cement itself as one of the B1G's elite teams. Beating weaker OSU and UM teams this year would have certainly helped MSU with its recruiting and may have catapulted this program into prolonged eliteness. Now MSU is going to have to do it the hard way. They are going to have to beat strengthened OSU and UM teams next year.

Nobody is really to blame, in this one. The problem is simply that it is not easy to replace your entire passing game. Remember, MSU lost a starting quarterback, three starting wide receivers, and two starting tight ends. I had hoped it wouldn't be so difficult to overcome such losses, but mine is only a fools hope.

As for the rest of this year, the Spartans now face Indiana and then Iowa, before facing Michigan. I expect them to beat Indiana and Iowa.  If the receivers can improve each week as much as they improved this game, then I think MSU will be ready to beat UM and may go on to win the Leaders division. If the receivers don't improve, or if they regress, then we're looking at a certain loss against UM and maybe even Iowa. Then we can even start talking about missing a bowl game.

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