Well, the game unfolded about how I expected -- in fact, I almost nailed the score (I predicted 27 to 10). The Spartan D did better than I expected and the O and the special teams were competent. Gotta keep this short because of family issues.
Offense
Once they stopped messing around with the passing, the offense dominated Minnesota.
The O-line and the Bell-dozer were nearly unstoppable in the running game. The O-line is still struggling in the passing game, particularly because of the struggles at the tackle positions. France and Burkland are struggling with the speed rushers.
Maxwell and the receivers are still a work in progress. Their futility killed many drives.
Defense
I expected them to dominate and they did. They provided good pressure on the quarterback and the secondary played outstanding.
Special teams
Started off weak, but ended with a competent game.
Coaches
No significant problems. My only complaint is that they tried to pass too often when it was clear that Bell was unstoppable. The passing game is simply killing drives.
Upshot
It was a solid victory for MSU, but the same concerns remain. The passing game has not progressed enough throughout this season. That was not an issue today against a weak Minnesota team but it could be an issue in the bowl game. Man, I hope they make enormous progress before next season.
Saturday, November 24, 2012
Wednesday, November 21, 2012
Preview of Minnesota Game
Ahallrighty, folks. We come to the big one, what Dantonio calls a "program" game. Lose, and this season can be declared an unmitigated disaster. Lose, and we can comfortably declare this the kind of season that can cause much damage to what has been built in the last few years. Win, and then win again in the bowl game, and this season can still be perceived as something slightly less than reasonable. Especially if MSU can finally play 2 complete games. I'm talking about a dominating defensive performance, coupled with competent offensive and special teams performances.
Unfulfilled weekly predictions of MSU victory have exhausted me, but this will the last one for a while, so here goes. MSU's D should be able to keep Minnesota's O under 13 points. Nay, Minnesota is scoring 22.4 points a game, so the Spartan D should actually be able to hold them under 10 points.
I have had a chance to calm down about the last game, so I can objectively say that the MSU offense is on the brink of putting it together. If not for the turnovers, last week, this team would have had the offensive explosion I predicted for them. Dare I, then, predict an explosion this week? Well, I'm relatively confident that they will move the ball very well. The o-line is looking better and better, Bell should have a good game, Dion Sims is back. Maxwell and the receivers are not quite where you want them to be, but they're OK.
But, will they be able finish drives? I've been burned so many times this year than I'm now a little superstitious against predicting an offensive explosion. But at least on paper it looks like they will be able to finish drives and score quite a few points. I guess I'll go with that.
Final score: MSU 27 Minn 10
Unfulfilled weekly predictions of MSU victory have exhausted me, but this will the last one for a while, so here goes. MSU's D should be able to keep Minnesota's O under 13 points. Nay, Minnesota is scoring 22.4 points a game, so the Spartan D should actually be able to hold them under 10 points.
I have had a chance to calm down about the last game, so I can objectively say that the MSU offense is on the brink of putting it together. If not for the turnovers, last week, this team would have had the offensive explosion I predicted for them. Dare I, then, predict an explosion this week? Well, I'm relatively confident that they will move the ball very well. The o-line is looking better and better, Bell should have a good game, Dion Sims is back. Maxwell and the receivers are not quite where you want them to be, but they're OK.
But, will they be able finish drives? I've been burned so many times this year than I'm now a little superstitious against predicting an offensive explosion. But at least on paper it looks like they will be able to finish drives and score quite a few points. I guess I'll go with that.
Final score: MSU 27 Minn 10
Saturday, November 17, 2012
Coaches and Maxwell Should be Watching Stanford
I'm watching the Stanford v. Oregon game and in it you can see the point I made in my post-game analysis about running quarterbacks. You have a redshirt freshman, Kevin Hogan, who looks like the next Andrew Luck. His ability to run with the ball has made a difference. The play on which he ran it for a touchdown is a play in which Maxwell would likely have thrown it away. The bottom line, for me, is that football (especially college football) is sloppy. A majority of the time, plays don't unfold as you design them. You gotta be able to adjust, and that's what running helps you do. Maxwell needs to use his legs a whole lot more, or the coaches need to consider putting in someone who can.
Update: Turns out that Oregon's quarterback, Marcus Mariota, is also a redshirt freshman. So there's another successful example of a running quarterback succeeding at an early age. Oh, and why not add Johnny Manziel at Texas A&M to that list.
Update: Turns out that Oregon's quarterback, Marcus Mariota, is also a redshirt freshman. So there's another successful example of a running quarterback succeeding at an early age. Oh, and why not add Johnny Manziel at Texas A&M to that list.
Thoughts on Northwestern Game
OK, so this game was bad enough to make me question why I care about football. It's hard to understand how MSU could be this bad. The futility is bad enough to make me question the promise of next year's team.
Offense
This is the last time I predict an offensive explosion. The offense actually moved the ball well, but they make too many mistakes.
OK, so I have now come to see Maxwell as a bigger part of the problem. He's too inaccurate and immobile. He frequently doesn't hit wide receivers accurately enough to give them a chance to run after the catch. For example, on one bubble screen Burbridge had to jump for the ball, and by the time he came down the defender was on him. Maxwell shows flashes of brilliance, but that's not enough if you want to win in the B1G.
The receivers were OK today, but they still drop too many balls to be considered outstanding. To win, you have to be outstanding.
The o-line continues to struggle at the tackle positions. Just not quite mobile enough.
Bell was fine, but he does try too often to run to the outside when he should just run up the gut.
Defense
Another great performance wasted. This D completely slowed down a potent offense. They only gave up 16 points. You can't ask for more than that.
Special Teams
I've said it before, this was a terrible year for the special teams to struggle. Sims almost turned the ball over and Conroy missed another easy kick.
Coaches
It was clear in this game that, apart from the defense, the coaches are not having a good year. Two weeks off and this team did not look sharp. Icing the kicker is a myth. I can't believe I saw Dantonio try to do that. I did not like the quarterback sneak in the first quarter. Why would you do that at a time when NU couldn't stop Bell? In general, every time the offense was moving the ball well the play calling seemed to go away from what was working.
Upshot
In the short term, this loss makes me doubt this team will make a bowl game. If they do, they will likely lose. The bottom line for this season is that this offense just can't make enough progress. Every time I think they are getting better, they show a level of incompetence that makes you feel embarrassed.
The progress is so slow that I now actually think next year is in jeopardy. The success of next year's offense will depend on: Maxwell making a considerable amount of progress in the off-season, the receivers and tight-ends becoming outstanding, and the o-line making considerable progress (especially at the tackle positions). That's a lot to ask. I still think the offense will be better next year, but probably not much better. I hate to say it, but they will need a new offensive coordinator, one under which the offense can at least show steady progress. Right now this offense is simply not progressing enough.
More than ever, I am now thinking that this team needs to move towards an offense that better suits the talent this program can recruit and that doesn't depend upon young geniuses. The thing I'm noticing this year is how many teams are doing well with young quarterbacks that can run. Even some freshmen quarterbacks (heck, even Devin Gardner, who was playing wide receiver most of the season!) are doing well because they are able to make plays with their feet. Maxwell has to throw the ball away when his receivers aren't open, even when he actually has a bit of space to run to. If MSU is not going to switch to the spread, then they at least need a quarterback that can run. Fortunately, they have more mobile quarterbacks coming up. But they need to absolutely emphasize that in their recruiting, from now on. The faster the better.
Offense
This is the last time I predict an offensive explosion. The offense actually moved the ball well, but they make too many mistakes.
OK, so I have now come to see Maxwell as a bigger part of the problem. He's too inaccurate and immobile. He frequently doesn't hit wide receivers accurately enough to give them a chance to run after the catch. For example, on one bubble screen Burbridge had to jump for the ball, and by the time he came down the defender was on him. Maxwell shows flashes of brilliance, but that's not enough if you want to win in the B1G.
The receivers were OK today, but they still drop too many balls to be considered outstanding. To win, you have to be outstanding.
The o-line continues to struggle at the tackle positions. Just not quite mobile enough.
Bell was fine, but he does try too often to run to the outside when he should just run up the gut.
Defense
Another great performance wasted. This D completely slowed down a potent offense. They only gave up 16 points. You can't ask for more than that.
Special Teams
I've said it before, this was a terrible year for the special teams to struggle. Sims almost turned the ball over and Conroy missed another easy kick.
Coaches
It was clear in this game that, apart from the defense, the coaches are not having a good year. Two weeks off and this team did not look sharp. Icing the kicker is a myth. I can't believe I saw Dantonio try to do that. I did not like the quarterback sneak in the first quarter. Why would you do that at a time when NU couldn't stop Bell? In general, every time the offense was moving the ball well the play calling seemed to go away from what was working.
Upshot
In the short term, this loss makes me doubt this team will make a bowl game. If they do, they will likely lose. The bottom line for this season is that this offense just can't make enough progress. Every time I think they are getting better, they show a level of incompetence that makes you feel embarrassed.
The progress is so slow that I now actually think next year is in jeopardy. The success of next year's offense will depend on: Maxwell making a considerable amount of progress in the off-season, the receivers and tight-ends becoming outstanding, and the o-line making considerable progress (especially at the tackle positions). That's a lot to ask. I still think the offense will be better next year, but probably not much better. I hate to say it, but they will need a new offensive coordinator, one under which the offense can at least show steady progress. Right now this offense is simply not progressing enough.
More than ever, I am now thinking that this team needs to move towards an offense that better suits the talent this program can recruit and that doesn't depend upon young geniuses. The thing I'm noticing this year is how many teams are doing well with young quarterbacks that can run. Even some freshmen quarterbacks (heck, even Devin Gardner, who was playing wide receiver most of the season!) are doing well because they are able to make plays with their feet. Maxwell has to throw the ball away when his receivers aren't open, even when he actually has a bit of space to run to. If MSU is not going to switch to the spread, then they at least need a quarterback that can run. Fortunately, they have more mobile quarterbacks coming up. But they need to absolutely emphasize that in their recruiting, from now on. The faster the better.
Thursday, November 15, 2012
Preview of Northwestern Game
Alright, it's gut-check time. The Spartans can end the season with a reasonable record if they win the rest of their games. Oddly enough, this first game against Northwestern may be the toughest left on the schedule -- including the bowl game (if they get to 7-5, I can't imagine they'll end up playing a particularly tough opponent). Here is why the Spartans should be able to beat Northwestern.
First and foremost, the Spartan D should be able to slow down Northwestern's offense. Normally I would say that NU's offense is dangerous, but I expect several key players to be hobbled this week. In particular, their starting quarterback Kain Colter suffered an ankle injury against UM that should slow him down a bit. Colter is very dangerous, otherwise. The Spartan D should also benefit from their experience against Nebraska's spread offense. In particular, I hope the coaches have harped on the importance of containment!
The Spartan offense should be able to score points against Northwestern's 41st ranked defense, if the Spartan O plays at least as well as last week. Fortunately, I think the Spartan O has climbed over a hump (though perhaps not over THE hump), and the bye should have helped them consolidate their gains. The o-line will continue to improve, Bell should have a nice game, the receivers and tight ends should match up well against the Northwestern secondary, and Maxwell should play well enough to make us excited about next year.
I'll be inconsolable if the offensive and defensive performances don't match up again. If the offense scores more than 21 points and the Spartans lose, then you know this season was cursed. In the end, I am actually expecting to see an offensive explosion and a solid defensive performance, which translates into a comfortable win for MSU. Expect many people to say, "this is what we were expecting from MSU this season, too bad they weren't able to put it together until now."
Final prediction: MSU 30 Northwestern 14
First and foremost, the Spartan D should be able to slow down Northwestern's offense. Normally I would say that NU's offense is dangerous, but I expect several key players to be hobbled this week. In particular, their starting quarterback Kain Colter suffered an ankle injury against UM that should slow him down a bit. Colter is very dangerous, otherwise. The Spartan D should also benefit from their experience against Nebraska's spread offense. In particular, I hope the coaches have harped on the importance of containment!
The Spartan offense should be able to score points against Northwestern's 41st ranked defense, if the Spartan O plays at least as well as last week. Fortunately, I think the Spartan O has climbed over a hump (though perhaps not over THE hump), and the bye should have helped them consolidate their gains. The o-line will continue to improve, Bell should have a nice game, the receivers and tight ends should match up well against the Northwestern secondary, and Maxwell should play well enough to make us excited about next year.
I'll be inconsolable if the offensive and defensive performances don't match up again. If the offense scores more than 21 points and the Spartans lose, then you know this season was cursed. In the end, I am actually expecting to see an offensive explosion and a solid defensive performance, which translates into a comfortable win for MSU. Expect many people to say, "this is what we were expecting from MSU this season, too bad they weren't able to put it together until now."
Final prediction: MSU 30 Northwestern 14
Sunday, November 11, 2012
Salvaging the Season
Folks, nobody has been more disappointed in the Spartans this year than me. But even I have managed to talk myself into seeing the results of this season as reasonable . . . if the Spartans win the rest of their games. And they should have a good shot at doing that.
If the Spartans win the rest of their games this season, including their bowl game, they will end the season at 8 - 5. That's three fewer wins than last year. When you consider that they played a tough schedule this year, and that they replaced their entire passing game (quarterback, receivers, tight ends), and that they lost 2 of their best defensive players in recent memory (Jerel Worthy and Trenton Robinson), three fewer wins sounds about right.
Sure, we all hoped that the passing game would somehow not struggle and that they wouldn't suffer key injuries (especially on the O-line), but hope usually doesn't pan out. You have to be more honest with yourself about what you have, and I think many of us forgot that. I think that most of us expected this year's Spartans to be where next year's Spartans will be. I think that next season we have much more reason to have extremely high expectations.
This year, we had to be more patient. We should have expected an 8 - 5 season. Of course, if the Spartans don't finish 8 - 5, then we can start to get a little upset. MSU should be able to beat Northwestern, Minnesota, and probably any team they'll face in their bowl game. If they finish below 8 - 5, this team can be deemed to have under-performed. The coaches will deserve much of the blame and they will have to seriously think about making significant changes as they prepare for next season.
If the Spartans win the rest of their games this season, including their bowl game, they will end the season at 8 - 5. That's three fewer wins than last year. When you consider that they played a tough schedule this year, and that they replaced their entire passing game (quarterback, receivers, tight ends), and that they lost 2 of their best defensive players in recent memory (Jerel Worthy and Trenton Robinson), three fewer wins sounds about right.
Sure, we all hoped that the passing game would somehow not struggle and that they wouldn't suffer key injuries (especially on the O-line), but hope usually doesn't pan out. You have to be more honest with yourself about what you have, and I think many of us forgot that. I think that most of us expected this year's Spartans to be where next year's Spartans will be. I think that next season we have much more reason to have extremely high expectations.
This year, we had to be more patient. We should have expected an 8 - 5 season. Of course, if the Spartans don't finish 8 - 5, then we can start to get a little upset. MSU should be able to beat Northwestern, Minnesota, and probably any team they'll face in their bowl game. If they finish below 8 - 5, this team can be deemed to have under-performed. The coaches will deserve much of the blame and they will have to seriously think about making significant changes as they prepare for next season.
Tuesday, November 6, 2012
2 Key Lessons From this Disappointing Season
We have a bye this week, so I thought I'd take the time to reflect on 2 key lessons we can learn from this disappointing season. Of course, we all know that the passing game was completely replaced this season: the quarterback, the receivers, the tight ends. Most of us saw that coming, and most people expected some growing pains. But I don't think any of us thought those losses would hurt the team this much. Well, now we all know better, and hopefully the coaches know better. And that brings us to the first key lesson: the coaches need to do a better job of anticipating those perfect storms of talent loss.
Coaches have to keep an eye out for those situations where the team could end up thin at key positions, especially skilled positions which take longer to develop than other positions. Quarterback, receiver, and tight end must always be well-stocked. The Spartans made a critical mistake with the 2011 recruiting class when they brought in only one clear receiver, Juwan Caeser -- who hasn't played at all this year. Andre Sims was a part of that class, and while he is now playing receiver, it appears he was originally recruited to play cornerback. In fact, Sims and Lippett's development as receivers may have been delayed by the fact that both were origially slated to play on defense.
The quarterback position did not suffer the depth problem quite as much. The Spartans have 3 talented scholarship quarterbacks and several upper-class walk-ons. The bigger problem at quarterback is game experience. Which brings up key lesson number 2 of this horrible season: get your future starters into as many games as possible.
I remember thinking that last year. There were a few blowouts where Cousins stayed in the game well into the 4rth quarter, and I remember wondering, "why not get Maxwell in there, it's not like you're protecting his redshirt?" In fact, Maxwell only made 26 throws in 2011. That tells me that the coaches just hadn't thought much about getting key players ready for 2012. We can see the same thing with the receivers. Fowler did get some meaningful playing time the last 2 years, but Lippett only had 4 catches in 2011 and Mumphery only 2.
The quarterback position did not suffer the depth problem quite as much. The Spartans have 3 talented scholarship quarterbacks and several upper-class walk-ons. The bigger problem at quarterback is game experience. Which brings up key lesson number 2 of this horrible season: get your future starters into as many games as possible.
I remember thinking that last year. There were a few blowouts where Cousins stayed in the game well into the 4rth quarter, and I remember wondering, "why not get Maxwell in there, it's not like you're protecting his redshirt?" In fact, Maxwell only made 26 throws in 2011. That tells me that the coaches just hadn't thought much about getting key players ready for 2012. We can see the same thing with the receivers. Fowler did get some meaningful playing time the last 2 years, but Lippett only had 4 catches in 2011 and Mumphery only 2.
You can't help but worry that the coaches may make the same mistake in future years. Next year, I could see them having problems with running backs. If Bell leaves early for the NFL, next year's running backs will be relatively inexperienced. Thankfully, running back doesn't take as much time to develop as quarterback and receiver (as Iowa shows every year), but the coaches should still be trying to get next year's potential starters a little more playing time.
Another potential trouble spot is cornerback. Folks, Darqueze Dennard looks like a first or second round draft pick to me and that makes it likely he will leave at the end of this season. That could leave the Spartans thin at the position. So the coaches need to be thinking about that possibility and they need to be communicating with Dennard so that they can plan accordingly.
Finally, after what we've gone through this year, I'll be upset during the 2013 season if the coaches don't play the backup quarterback more often (whoever that turns out to be), especially during blowouts. If the team is up 3 or 4 touchdowns late in the third quarter, why not let the backup play the rest of the game? I don't want the 2014 season to be a repeat of this season, and so I'd like to see the backup get at least 50 pass attempts throughout the 2013 season.
Another potential trouble spot is cornerback. Folks, Darqueze Dennard looks like a first or second round draft pick to me and that makes it likely he will leave at the end of this season. That could leave the Spartans thin at the position. So the coaches need to be thinking about that possibility and they need to be communicating with Dennard so that they can plan accordingly.
Finally, after what we've gone through this year, I'll be upset during the 2013 season if the coaches don't play the backup quarterback more often (whoever that turns out to be), especially during blowouts. If the team is up 3 or 4 touchdowns late in the third quarter, why not let the backup play the rest of the game? I don't want the 2014 season to be a repeat of this season, and so I'd like to see the backup get at least 50 pass attempts throughout the 2013 season.
Saturday, November 3, 2012
Thoughts on Nebraska Game
This feels like the most painful loss I can remember. The refs were terrible, but they were terrible both ways. It was basically a good game, a classic. But it was a painful classic.
Offense
Man, I got this one right. The offense finally did something.
The O-line looked pretty good. They are gelling, though France had his weak moments at left tackle.
Bell cashed in on the decent line play and some good calls by Roushar.
Maxwell, played OK, and put some passes on the money that could have changed the outcome of the game, if the receivers had caught them.
The inconsistency of the receivers reared its ugly head. They had some key drops. Where is Burbridge?
The tight ends are not doing much. Dion Sims is not back to normal.
But overall, the offense played well enough to win.
Defense
What a time for the offense and defense to mismatch their performances. The defense was solid most of the time, but they got burned on too many big plays. I hate to single guys out, but Gholston made several key mistakes. He lost contain too often and allowed several big plays to his side.
The younger secondary players made critical mistakes (e.g., Hicks' late hit out of bounds, and who left that Nebraska receiver wide open on 4rth and 9?). Critical mistakes at terrible times.
Darqueze Dennard looked like a first round pick in this game. I hate to say it, but he will be gone at the end of this year. The Spartans could have their 2 starting corners going in the top 2 rounds. That's bad for next year, but good for recruiting. Dantonio may need to recruit another standout corner for the 2013 class.
Coaches
They called a pretty good game. I mean, Nebraska basically won because they had 4 huge plays. Most of the time, MSU was in control.
They probably did get too conservative at the end. But I would have done the same thing, so I can't really complain.
Upshot
The Spartans should have a good chance to win their last 2 games, and they should end up in a bowl game, as long as the offense does not regress. Nonetheless, it's now easy to declare this season a near perfect failure. Things could not have gone much worse.
As for the longer term future, this game suggests a few things. First, it shows you how hard it is to stop the spread. MSU has been as dominant on defense as any team can be, and they could not overcome Taylor Martinez. I think the Spartans should start moving towards more of a spread offense. Running quarterbacks add that extra element of advantage. When done correctly, it's impossible to stop. More importantly, spread offenses don't require elite O-line talent. If MSU can't recruit that kind of talent, they need to consider moving in that direction. Under Dantonio, I don't think MSU has ever had the O-line talent to properly run a pro-style offense. I'm not talking Oregon or Rich Rodriguez kind of spread. But MSU should start incorporating more spread elements. Shoot, even the NFL is moving towards more spread elements.
Next year, MSU will have their best O-line under Dantonio, if they still struggle on offense, then the writing is on the wall.
Offense
Man, I got this one right. The offense finally did something.
The O-line looked pretty good. They are gelling, though France had his weak moments at left tackle.
Bell cashed in on the decent line play and some good calls by Roushar.
Maxwell, played OK, and put some passes on the money that could have changed the outcome of the game, if the receivers had caught them.
The inconsistency of the receivers reared its ugly head. They had some key drops. Where is Burbridge?
The tight ends are not doing much. Dion Sims is not back to normal.
But overall, the offense played well enough to win.
Defense
What a time for the offense and defense to mismatch their performances. The defense was solid most of the time, but they got burned on too many big plays. I hate to single guys out, but Gholston made several key mistakes. He lost contain too often and allowed several big plays to his side.
The younger secondary players made critical mistakes (e.g., Hicks' late hit out of bounds, and who left that Nebraska receiver wide open on 4rth and 9?). Critical mistakes at terrible times.
Darqueze Dennard looked like a first round pick in this game. I hate to say it, but he will be gone at the end of this year. The Spartans could have their 2 starting corners going in the top 2 rounds. That's bad for next year, but good for recruiting. Dantonio may need to recruit another standout corner for the 2013 class.
Coaches
They called a pretty good game. I mean, Nebraska basically won because they had 4 huge plays. Most of the time, MSU was in control.
They probably did get too conservative at the end. But I would have done the same thing, so I can't really complain.
Upshot
The Spartans should have a good chance to win their last 2 games, and they should end up in a bowl game, as long as the offense does not regress. Nonetheless, it's now easy to declare this season a near perfect failure. Things could not have gone much worse.
As for the longer term future, this game suggests a few things. First, it shows you how hard it is to stop the spread. MSU has been as dominant on defense as any team can be, and they could not overcome Taylor Martinez. I think the Spartans should start moving towards more of a spread offense. Running quarterbacks add that extra element of advantage. When done correctly, it's impossible to stop. More importantly, spread offenses don't require elite O-line talent. If MSU can't recruit that kind of talent, they need to consider moving in that direction. Under Dantonio, I don't think MSU has ever had the O-line talent to properly run a pro-style offense. I'm not talking Oregon or Rich Rodriguez kind of spread. But MSU should start incorporating more spread elements. Shoot, even the NFL is moving towards more spread elements.
Next year, MSU will have their best O-line under Dantonio, if they still struggle on offense, then the writing is on the wall.
Thursday, November 1, 2012
Preview of Nebraska Game
Just a week ago I would have said this game has the makings of a blowout, as in, the Spartans were going to get blown out. After the Wisconsin game I have more confidence. This will still be a tough game, but here's why I think the Spartans should win.
Defense
MSU's defense is really starting to look elite. They looked better last week than they did against Michigan, and I expect them to continue their improvement this week. It's just too bad the offense is so incompetent this year. If the offense had scored just 2 touchdowns a game, this team would have been nearly undefeated.
On the other hand, this could be the best offense MSU has faced this season. Nebraska is scoring almost 40 points a game, and they are talented and relatively balanced. I can't see the D doing to Nebraska what it did to Michigan and Wisconsin, but I do think they'll be able to keep them under 21 points.
Offense
The theme is the same as it has been all season. It's up to the offense to win the game. If they play like they have most of the year, fuggedabout it. If they play like they did at the end of the Wisconsin game, the Spartans should comfortably win this one.
Nebraska's D has actually struggled this year, so the Spartans should be able to score more points against them than against Michigan and Wisconsin's Ds.
I actually expect the O-line to look pretty good. I felt that they were starting to gel in the Wisconsin game. Left tackle still needs to be resolved, and hopefully Dan France looks better this week.
If the O-line puts things together, I expect Bell to have a good game. That should make Maxwell's job a little easier and consequently I expect Maxwell to look pretty good this week. His receivers are playing well now, Dion Sims and LT are nearly at full strength, and the line is blocking better. He has to step it up this week. And I think he will.
In short, the offense will have it's first complete performance of the season, and that will be good enough for the victory.
Coaches
I felt that Nebraska's coaches outcoached the MSU coaches last year. One thing I noticed was that the Nebraska secondary took away MSU's receiving advantage by engaging in aggressive bump and run coverage that often turned into defensive holding. I don't know if the MSU coaches saw that, but they should have been all over the refs about that.
The other annoying thing was how Roushar kept trying to run outside the tackles. That strategy failed over and over because Nebraska had extremely fast outside linebackers like Lavonte David. The Spartan coaches just flat out failed to adjust in that game, and it cost them. In fact, Nebraska adapted much better, running between the tackles to greater effect than MSU.
I hope the Spartan coaches are ready to go in this game because the Nebraska coaches will be. The Spartan coaches better recognize that Nebraska is not above bending the rules.
Upshot
MSU has a talent edge and no longer has the excuse that the receivers are dropping the ball. You can now clearly see the explosive potential of the offense, but it needs to be unleashed. I think I'm ready to stop being conservative on offense. I think the MSU coaches are too, and that's why I pick MSU to win this game.
Final score: MSU 24 Nebraska 17
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