Simulations Make Similar Predictions to My Own

So it turns out that my predictions for the 2013 football season are in line with more technical predictions. As reported by the Free Press, Football Outsiders ran some simulations and concluded that MSU has the best chance of winning the Legends division.  My thinking is actually quite similar to theirs, though I don't take the time to run the simulations.  As I mentioned in my prediction post, I basically assume the defense will be at a championship level, and all MSU has to do is figure out a way to score roughly 6 more points per game.  I basically expect them to be able to do that.

Post-Spring Prediction for 2013 Season: Spartans go 12-2

Alrighty, since we have months to go before the season starts, I might as well make my post-spring prediction for how the season will go.  Of course, I will be updating these predictions once the info from the fall practices begins trickling out - especially the info on the performance of the freshmen running backs and on whether any key O-linemen were injured.  But let's cross that bridge when we get to it.

I will start by confessing to being burned badly last year, perhaps worse than anyone else in Spartan nation.  I predicted the Spartans would go 12-2 in 2012 and of course they ended up going 7-6.  In my defense, the Spartan defense actually performed better than I expected, but the offense just turned out to be so remarkably futile.  The Spartans would have won 10 or 11 games, if they could just have scored 3 more points per game.  Ironically, it is this frustrating outcome that makes me optimistic about 2013.

I do think that MSU is largely going to be the same team as in 2013, but with a moderately better offense and special teams - that will score more than the 3 extra points per game required.  First, I think the defense could be more talented, and certainly will have more depth than last year. The defensive coaching staff will be largely the same, with the exception of Ron Burton replacing Ted Gill as defensive line coach. So the only real concern I have on defense is that other teams could evolve to outmaneuver the MSU defense. But considering that the coaches are willing to do things like visit LSU to see how they do things on defense down there, I have confidence that the Spartan defense is capable of adapting and thus continuing their prowess.

On offense, I saw enough from Maxwell this Spring to believe he will excel this year.  In fact, I was quite impressed with Maxwell's short range accuracy.  He was really "threading the needle" on some of those passes.  If he could just improve his long range accuracy a bit more and his running ability, I think Maxwell could become a star.  The great thing for the Spartans is that Connor Cook is also playing pretty well.  So the Spartans have good talent and depth at quarterback.

Of course, the quarterbacks are going to need the receivers to continue their improvement, and from what I saw, the receivers are making significant progress.  Yes, they dropped some balls, but I wonder how much the cold weather was a factor.  I can tell you that my hands feel like wooden spoons when the temperature drops below 50 degrees, and the temperature during the Spring game was much lower than that.  More importantly, I think the key guys looked pretty good, overall.

Folks, the passing game will be better than last year and could even be quite explosive.  The biggest remaining question mark is the tight end position.  There is simply not much experience there, and consequently, I expect that position to struggle as much as the receivers did last year.  I hope for a pleasant surprise there, come fall, but I wouldn't bet on it.

The running game also looks set to take a step back, BUT, not as far back as I once thought.  I think that Bullough has all the tools to do well at running back, perhaps as well as Bell in his sophomore year.  With Bullough softening the defenses and with the O-line gelling, I think the other three speed backs should turn out to be rather productive over the course of a whole season. Of course, the Spartans have 3 promising running backs arriving in the fall and I expect at least 2 of them to contribute quite a bit.  Overall, I'm expecting the running game to be pretty good.

The passing and running game should benefit from the best O-line in the Dantonio era.  The O-line will be very experienced and deep.  If the Spartans can finally avoid injuries, this line could even become dominant as it gels.  If they do suffer some injuries (no more than 3), they will have the depth to still be pretty good.

Finally, it appears that Michael Geiger is the real deal at kicker, hitting a 56 yarder in a recent Ohio high school all-star game.

Put all of these things together, along with a considerably easier schedule, and you have the makings of a great year.  Last year I predicted the Spartans would go 12-2, and I think I was one year ahead of myself.  I think this is the year they go 12-2.  Note that this is a downgrade for me.  I actually predicted, a while ago, that 2013 was Dantonio's best year to win a national championship. Actually, I would have stuck with that prediction, if Bell, Gholston, and Sims had stayed.

My 2 Cents on the Spring Game

I was finally able to watch my DVR recording of the Spring game.  And while the game has already received plenty of attention and analysis, I thought I'd throw my 2 cents in, since I have a somewhat different take on a few things than what many others are saying. Of course, all the caveats apply: this is just a Spring game, several starters were missing, the team was mixed in ways that limit what we can take away from the performances, etc, etc...

Quarterbacks

I'll say that Andrew Maxwell played pretty well. He completed 9 out of 20 passes, but he should really have been at least 12 out of 20. There were at least 3 passes that absolutely should have been caught, and there were another 2 passes that maybe should have been catches. Basically, Maxwell should have ended up with about a 60% completion percentage, which is pretty good, considering the conditions. The only quibbles I really have with Maxwell were his accuracy beyond 20 yards and his mobility - although, I thought he looked much lighter on his feet than last season. Hopefully, he'll keep working on those areas over the next 4 months.

I don't think Connor Cook outplayed Maxwell, as some are suggesting. Don't get me wrong, Cook looked impressive, but he was also throwing to Aaron Burbridge (who looks like he will be an All-B10 receiver this year) and DeAnthony Arnett (who may be starting to live up to his recruiting rankings). I would like to have seen how Maxwell would have looked throwing to those guys. I also think that Cook benefited from Riley Bullough's effective running.  In the end, I think Maxwell still looks a little ahead of Cook, but I also think that Cook looks like he will be taking over when Maxwell is gone. Many people are excited about Tyler O'Connor and Damion Terry, but to me Cook looks like he is going to be really good by the time he is a senior.

Tyler O'Connor still has some work to do, but he's really still in his first year.  Unfortunately, defensive pressure kept us from seeing much of his mobility.

Upshot for quarterbacks: I don't think they're going to be a problem this fall, and man alive, MSU looks loaded at the position!

Receivers

Obviously, they had several infuriating drops.  But at least the top guys are starting to look impressive.  Burbridge and Arnett flashed some incredible potential.  They just need to do it every play, not just flashes.  Physically, AJ Troup looks like the real deal.  What a physical specimen. We'll have to see if he can put it all together this fall.  Mumphery is becoming MSU's most consistent receiver, but he doesn't quite have the explosiveness of a guy like Burbridge. I like how Lippett looks, but he needs to show up a little more.  He seems to disappear at times.  Fowler needs to get past the drops.  He gets a lot of passes thrown his way, so he seems to be able to get open.  But he has to hang on to them.

The tight ends are in trouble.  This is the team's biggest weakness, at this point. I'm just hoping Jamare Mills somehow finds his way back on the team.

Running backs

I was worried about the running backs a couple of weeks ago, but now I'm thinking the team looks pretty solid at the position - even if they didn't have 3 solid-looking freshmen backs arriving in the fall. Apart from the fumble, Riley Bullough looked excellent.  He's tough, he finds holes, and he moves pretty well.  Langford, Hill, and Tompkins have some work to do, but they flash excellent speed and they seem to benefit from the presence of a bruiser like Bullough softening up the defense.  In a way, I think Bullough could be more effective at softening up defenses than LeVeon Bell.  Bell was a powerful back, but he often ran more like a scat back.  Bullough runs more like Trent Richardson.  Hmmm, makes me wonder...even if the freshmen running backs come in and play well right away, I wouldn't mind seeing Bullough and perhaps even Lawrence Thomas getting a few carries per game to help soften up the defense. Just a thought.

Defense

I won't say much about the defensive side of the ball, since they look talented and deep at every position - how about those freshmen cornerbacks?  The only quibble I might have is that I wish the defensive tackles were a little more disruptive.  And maybe they will be by this fall.

Optimistic About Maxwell

Last season, after the Ohio State game, I wrote that Maxwell would graduate as MSU's best quarterback ever.  I felt he looked smart, and more accurate and strong-armed than Kirk Cousins.  Then, in the second half of the season, the wheels gradually came off.  He actually seemed to regress from game to game, and he seemed to hit rock bottom against TCU, where Connor Cook offered more of a spark to the offense.  Even I (the eternal Spartan slappy) started to have my doubts about Maxwell.  And I started to doubt my ability to evaluate talent (from the comfort of my couch).

But no! I know what I saw.  Maxwell clearly flashed some serious talent in the first half of the season. And maybe, just maybe, he's about to put it all together in his senior season. I know, scrimmage stats don't tell us much, but they are nevertheless tantalizing:

17 of 27 and 3 touchdowns in the first scrimmage
14 of 18 and 1 touchdown in the second scrimmage

Keep in mind that the quarterbacks are live and that the running game has been relatively weak.

Of course, 2 scrimmages do not a first-round pick make. But if Maxwell turns into a Heisman Trophy candidate by about the 5th game of the season, let's just say I called it here first.  And if he ends up playing like Andre Ware (when he was with the Lions), let's just remember that I'm just a couch potato.  But seriously, I think Maxwell has all the physical tools to excel.  The only thing that could derail him would be an inability to deal with pressure.  I think Dantonio was aware of this, too, and that's why he wanted to see how Maxwell would practice under pressure.  So far, so good.

Scrimmage Stats Don't Tell Us Much

The Spartans held their first jersey scrimmage of the Spring, and I just want to make a brief comment about it.  First, one thing that could keep us from getting too excited is that it does look like the performance of the passing game for this first scrimmage was only a little better than last year's first scrimmage (here is the Spartans' statement on this year's first scrimmage and here is the statement from last year's):

Passing 2013: Andrew Maxwell 17-of-27 for 187 yards and three touchdowns (13 yards to AJ Troup; 18 and 4 yards to Keith Mumphery); Tyler O'Connor 6-of-10 for 141 yards and one touchdown (76 yards to AJ Troup); Connor Cook 11-of-18 for 73 yards and one interception.

Passing 2012: Andrew Maxwell 16-of-29 for 162 yards; Connor Cook 15-of-25 for 145 yards, one touchdown (38 yards to Jeremy Langford) and one interception; Tyler O'Connor 6-of-14 for 105 yards and one touchdown (37 yards to Tres Barksdale). 

On the other hand, we should keep in mind that MSU could have won as many as 10 games last year if the offense had just been slightly better.  Perhaps most encouraging, Andrew Maxwell did throw for 3 touchdowns this year and it does appear that the quarterbacks were "live" this year.  These things hint at a more explosive passing game.  

Overall, we're just going to have to wait until the season starts to really know what we have with this offense.  Actually, we may have to wait until the Notre Dame game to really know what we have.