Surprises Part 2: The Good

A few days ago I considered some bad surprises that could significantly hurt MSU's football success. Now it's time to take a look at some that could help -- maybe even help enough to produce a national championship?

I'll start with defense because I think this is where we should expect to see the fewest surprises, or if we do, they shouldn't have as much impact on the season as surprises in other parts of the team. I think the biggest surprise on defense could come from Shilique Calhoun. Right now, I am expecting him to have a good year, perhaps statistically as good as Will Gholston's past two years. But what if he could have a huge breakout year, kind of like former Illinois defensive end Whitney Mercilus, who went from unknown to leading the nation with 16 sacks. OK, the probabilities of that happening are ludicrously small, however, if he could even get 10 sacks, that would still be a very nice surprise.

In general, the biggest surprise on defense would have to come from the defensive line. Right now, I am expecting them to be as solid as they were last year, but it would be nice if they were surprisingly more disruptive. Maybe Ron Burton turns out to be a D-line savant, and maybe guys like Hoover, Reynolds, and Thomas have breakout years. If so, this surprise would likely make this MSU's best defense, ever!

On offense, there are many more potential and needed surprises. I'll start with the receivers. As I discussed in my last post, poor receiver play would probably set back the entire program. On the other hand, MSU has never had this much talent at receiver. It would be a nice surprise if this talent started to live up to its potential. If Burbridge can play as well for the whole season as he did during his best 3-game stretch last year, he could become the best receiver in the B10. After that, it would be nice to see: Fowler finally holding on to the ball on a consistent basis, Arnett living up to his recruiting hype, and either Mumphery or Lippett emerging as reliable targets. I'll go out on a limb and say that Lippett is the one I keep thinking could become something special, if he could put it all together. He has the size and athleticism, and sometimes he has the route-running and the hands.

As for tight ends, if they play well, that would be the biggest surprise I can think of. I really don't expect much out of these guys, so if would be a pleasant surprise if Andrew Gleichert has a breakout year, or if Dylan Chmura can flash some brilliance as a true freshman, or if anyone of the other guys can contribute something meaningful.

At quarterback, I am expecting Andrew Maxwell to play better than last year. But what if he plays much much better? What if his improvement launches him into All-B10 territory? I think this surprise is one of the most probable surprises, not so much because Maxwell will dramatically improve his own play (though I think he will show that he has made progress), but because his supporting cast will be much better. An improved O-line and receiving corps should make Maxwell look a lot more Kirk Cousins, and if the receivers are as talented as I think they are, he could even look better than Cousins.

At running back, I am expecting a drop-off from LeVeon Bell, but not a huge drop-off. A nice surprise would be if the running game actually turns out to be little better than last year because: Riley Bullough turns out to be kind of like Iowa's Mark Weisman, Gerald Holmes does something similar to what LeVeon Bell did his freshman year, and one of the speed backs is finally able to make a decent contribution.

As for the O-line, I still expect it to be the best line of the Dantonio era, but I'm a little bit less optimistic about how good it can be now that Skylar Burkland is struggling mightily with injuries and now that the preseason depth chart has Jack Conklin listed as the third left tackle. At the end of last year, I was still hoping Burkland would become the highest drafted O-linemen in the Dantonio era and I was hoping Conklin was ready to emerge as one of MSU's best diamond-in-the-rough players of all time. Now, those hopes seem a little overblown.

Still, this is an experienced line and it would be a nice surprise if they can gel sooner than they have in the past, and if they could become one of the top 5 (maybe top 4) O-lines in the B10. It would also be a nice surprise if at least one of the tackles (most likely Fonoti) would emerge as an all-B10 candidate.

Finally, I expect the kicking game to be about where it was last year. So it would certainly be a nice surprise if whoever wins the place kicking duties turns out to hit around 80% of their field goal tries. That kind of improvement would probably give the Spartans at least a couple more victories this year.

Of all the surprises, I think the one having to do with the receivers would make the biggest difference for MSU, this year. If this group of receivers becomes one of the top 3 in the B10, Maxwell will look much better, and this offense will score a lot more points than last year. Combined with a stout defense, that could be enough to win the Spartans a B10 title. Add another surprise or two, and suddenly we're looking at a team that could contend for the national title.

Of course, we call them surprises because they are not necessarily things we are counting on, so I wouldn't bet the farm on predictions based on surprises. But surprises do happen and they have a huge impact on a team's success, so they are worth thinking about.

Possible Bad Surprises for this Year

Last year I wrote about how the success of a football team is frequently influenced by surprises. For example, part of the reason MSU had a great year in 2011 was because the linebackers were surprisingly good. Most people expected a drop-off after Greg Jones and Erick Gordon graduated, but Bullough and company stepped in and may have outplayed the 2010 linebacking unit. An example of negative surprise occurred last year when the passing game flopped much worse than anyone imagined. Most people expected some problems, but not the astonishing futility we witnessed.

Of course, surprises are by definition unpredictable. In fact, my 2012 post on surprises turned out to be kind of off the mark. Actually, I accurately identified some of the bad surprises, but I was way wrong in thinking they wouldn't happen. The D-line did end up missing Worthy quite a bit more than expected, the O-line suffered key injuries that made it much weaker than expected, and the passing game was abysmal. Shoot, the kicking game turned out to be a bad surprise. Anyway, despite their unpredictability, it's still fun to try to anticipate surprises, so here goes.  

Let's start with the bad surprises (next post will consider the good kind). I do think that the probability a bad surprise will emerge on defense is pretty low.  Maybe, we could end up with something like Trae Waynes struggling more than expected, or the defensive tackles struggling again to be disruptive. But overall, I think the defense is solid enough to overcome those surprises.

On offense, one bad surprise could be that the best O-line in the Dantonio era struggles again. With all the talent and experience, we are expecting this unit to finally perform at a relatively high level. But what if Skylar Burkland retires, one of the other OTs gets injured, and redshirt freshman Jack Conklin has to step in and he struggles? The good thing is that the depth at the guard and center positions is good enough to mitigate most surprises on the interior of the line (except perhaps injuries to 3 guards - at that point we can be certain that somebody has put a hex on this O-line). Still, OT is the danger area, just sitting there waiting to strike.

Another bad surprise on offense would be finding out that last year's receiver play was not a fluke, that while this crop of receivers and tight ends is perhaps MSU's most athletic ever, they are just too prone to dropping the ball and running bad routes. Oh man, would that suck. This surprise would pretty much condemn MSU to another year of offensive futility, and would really destroy much of the momentum MSU has acquired in the Dantonio era. I would have to call this the worst possible surprise, so let's hope to high heaven that it does not play out.

I am expecting Andrew Maxwell to play much better this year, but there is a reasonable probility that he could struggle again. Still, I don't think this bad surprise would be as destructive as some of the other surprises because MSU is now loaded at quarterback. If Maxwell struggles, I'm confident one of the other quarterbacks would be able to step in and play at a decent level -- maybe not at a star level, but at an acceptable level.

The final surprise would be a kicking game that goes backwards. As much as Dan Conroy struggled last year, he still made 72 percent of his field goal attempts (23-for-32).  Hopefully, this year's kicker will at least match what Conroy did last year, but it's also quite possible that by the end of this year, we will find ourselves wishing for the "good old days" of the kicking game. This bad surprise would be pretty damaging, perhaps not quite as bad as poor play from the receivers, but it would be bad enough to cost MSU at least a few games -- especially if the offense struggles again.

Last year I said the surprises were not likely to happen and they did, so what should I say this year? Maybe I'll just go with something like this: "Dear Universe, please don't let any of these bad surprises happen, especially the one about receivers and the kicking game..."

Recruiting 2014: Matt Morrissey

The Spartans picked up a pretty solid commitment today from Matt Morrissey, son of former MSU linebacker Jim Morrissey.  He is not that highly rated -- consensus 3-star recruit with offers from places like Boston College, Illinois and Syracuse -- but I'm still kind of excited about Morrissey.  He has great size (6'3" and about 185 lbs) and he looks pretty athletic. His video is particularly interesting.

Morrissey has pretty good burst and field awareness. Combined with his size, those traits make him a very versatile player. I think he has the tools to be a safety, which is what he has apparently been recruited to play; but he could also make a solid wide receiver, which is where MSU may need him most, if they continue to struggle to recruit receivers. Ultimately though, I think he would probably excel most at linebacker, if he could put on about 50 pounds and retain most of his burst.

So the upshot is that I don't know where Morrissey will end up, and that makes a big difference on what he might become for MSU. As a linebacker, I think he could do great things -- by his third year in the program. As a safety or wide receiver, he would probably be solid, but maybe not a star.  So we'll have to see what shakes out.

Otherwise, MSU is continuing to build a solid class. They still must pick up some o-linemen, defensive ends, and wide receivers. But this class is definitely getting there.