MSU Could Consolidate Its Eliteness Over the Next 2 Years

Folks, I don't have to tell you that we are currently living through one of the greatest epochs in MSU football history.  But how did we get here?  Of course, the coaches and talented players have a lot to do with it.  But if you think about long enough, you also start to see what seems like a little divine intervention (or a fortunate series of events).  You also start to see how this divine intervention could carry MSU to even greater heights.

Where I tend to see more divine intervention is in what happened to the top teams in the B1G during Dantonio's tenure at MSU.  We all know how Michigan faltered under Rich Rodriguez and how MSU was able to defeat the Rodriguez-led Wolverines three straight years.  That alone enhanced MSU's prestige throughout the state, but beyond that, Rodriguez' non-pro style allowed MSU to compete for recruits that may have typically gone to UM.  Guys like Edwin Baker and Larry Caper could have ended up at UM if Rodriguez was not there.

Ohio State experienced less of a collapse than UM when tattoo-gate brought Jim Tressel down.  But their stumble probably helped MSU defeat OSU in it's home stadium for the first time . . . in a long time.  The scandal also cost OSU a few scholarships, and while it's hard to quantify how that benefitted the Spartans, we can safely guess that it may have allowed MSU to pick up at least one more elite player than they normally would have - I'm thinking of someone like Ohio receiver Monty Madaris.

Now, UM and OSU do seem to be back on track.  Does that mean that the gods have stopped smiling on MSU.  I don't think so.  In fact, I think the gods have given MSU at least two more years to solidify their rise to the top.

Here's the deal.  I don't care what the preseason rankings say, the Spartans are going to be better this year than UM and OSU.  This year's Spartans are still more talented and farther along in their development than both UM and OSU, and OSU will likely experience some transition issues under Urban Meyer.  Thus, while MSU could still lose their game this year against either of those teams, I would say that if they played those teams 10 times, MSU would beat them 7 times.

We can start to get more worried in 2013.  That's when Brady Hoke's recruiting prowess will begin to pay off, and that's when OSU will likely have resolved all of its transition issues.  OSU in particular could be scary.  Braxton Miller will be a junior quarterback and the defensive line OSU will have that year could be monstrous.

So 2013 is when MSU will give way to the traditional powers?  Wrong.  Fortunately for us, MSU should be peaking in 2013 - depending on how many guys we lose to the NFL.  MSU should have a lot of seniors that year, and I'm talking star seniors, including: Andrew Maxwell, Le'Veon Bell, Dion Sims, William Golston, Max Bullough, Denicos Allen, Darqueze Dennard, and many more.  MSU will also certainly have it's wide receiver issues resolved.  Thus, I think that MSU could end up being stronger that year than both UM and OSU, and that should be Dantonio's best year to win a national championship.

So, in essence, I think the football gods have given MSU two more years to consolidate the eliteness of the football program.  During that time, MSU should be able to capitalize on its success and should be able to start competing for top recruits - not that the recruits MSU is getting now are chopped liver, but I mean that they should be able to win more recruiting battles.  By then, MSU should get several more guys drafted in the early rounds of the NFL.  We can already see how the success of guys like Jerel Worthy is starting to pay off on the recruiting trail - some top defensive tackles are looking at MSU.  That pay off should start to snowball over the next two years.

In short, if MSU does what I think it can do over the next two years, we don't need to worry about the rise of UM and OSU.  By 2015, MSU's status as an elite program could be pretty consolidated.

Recruiting 2013: Jon Reschke

Linebacker Jon Reschke (from Michigan) committed back in February, and he's generally regarded as the Spartan's top recruit, up to this point.  He's a consensus 4-star recruit to the all the recruiting services, and he has the highest score of all the Spartan recruits on 247's composite score (which combines the scores of all the recruiting sites).  He committed early and this likely explains why his only other offer at the recruiting sites is from Toledo.

Reschke has good size (6' 2" and over 220 lbs.) and athleticism (under 4.7 in the 40) for a linebacker.  His video pretty much confirms those numbers:

He shows pretty good instincts, speed, relentlessness, and the ability to shed blockers.  The obvious expectation is that Reschke will take over for Max Bullough in a couple of years.  I would say that looks very likely.  Check out what Bullough looked like in high school.  There are clearly a lot of physical similarities between these two.  I just hope Reschke has the same kind of leadership and intelligence.  And according to several things I've read about him, his intelligence is one of his best traits.

Upshot: Reschke looks set to keep the middle linebacker position solid for the Spartans, for years to come.  But as good as Reschke looks to  be, I really hope Bullough comes back for his senior year.  I don't see a clear replacement for Bullough on the current roster, and Reschke likely won't be ready to excel at middle linebacker until at least his sophomore year.

Recruiting 2013: Jalyn Powell

I have a lot of catching up to do, including reports on 2013 commits.  I'll get to them in the order they committed.  Safety Jalyn Powell was the first commit, so I'll start with him.

Powell is considered a 3-star recruit by all the recruiting services except ESPN, which has him at 4 stars.  His only other significant offer was from West Virginia, but this likely is a reflection of his early commitment.  He is listed as a safety recruit and he has good size (6' 1" and 185 lbs) for that position.  As for his athleticism, there is a little uncertainty.  Only ESPN has a time for him in the 40-meter run, listing him at 4.82.  That would pretty slow for a safety.  His highlight video, however, suggests he's much faster than that.

The quality of the video is pretty shoddy, but there are some moments where he makes some Forrest Gump kind of plays, where he looks like the fastest guy on the field, by far.  That tells me that he's way faster than 4.82 in the 40.  You can also see that he is a solid tackler.  He finds the ball well, delivers some solid hits, and even sheds blockers pretty well.  These things make me think that Powell could end up as a linebacker, eventually.  He would need to gain about 25 pounds, but he should have plenty of time to do that.  Otherwise, you don't get to see him do much in the secondary, so we can't really see what kind of instincts he has for that position.

Upshot: Powell has the potential to play several positions.  He has the athleticism to be a safety or a receiver.  He also shows the instincts and ability to play linebacker - man, he could be a really athletic linebacker (perhaps even more athletic than Denicos Allen).  Whatever he ends up playing, Powell looks like an excellent pickup for MSU.

New Roster, Good News

The new roster is out, and it includes the 2012 recruits.  It looks like there are 26 freshmen, including all 21 of the scholarship recruits.  Of particular interest, it looks like star receiver Aaron Burbridge and Jr. College tight end Jamare Mills were able to address their academic issues.  Now we can talk about their potential contributions without qualifications.  This does show that Dantonio and the coaches do an excellent job of finding talented guys that will make it to campus.  Many of the programs that rank high in recruiting actually end up losing some recruits.

Thoughts on Depth Chart

Of course, the depth chart came out last week.  Many things have already been written about it, so I'll keep my thoughts short.  Here are some things that stood out to me:

- Tyler Hoover got bigger!  He is now listed as weighing 310, which I think is at least 20 pounds heavier than he was for the Spring game.  I'm excited to see if Hoover and Kittredge will be an improvement over last year's defensive tackles: Pickelman and Strayhorn.

- Keith Mumphery is listed as a starter at receiver.  At the end of last year I thought Bennie Fowler and Tony Lippett would have the first crack at starting.  

- Andre Sims is "tied" with DeAnthony Arnett.  Sims could turn out to be one of those diamonds in the rough.  He was the only receiver at the Spring game that was consistently getting open, and he caught just about everything thrown his way.

- Skyler Burkland is a backup.  Burkland could still be recovering from his leg injury or France and Fonoti could just be very good.  We'll see if he can crack the starting lineup in camp.  In any case, the OT position looks good for the Spartans.

- Taiwan Jones received a lot of hype last year, but he is now listed as third for STAR linebacker, behind Chris Norman and Darrien Harris.  I'm hoping that's because Harris is so good, rather than because Jones regressed.  Could Harris be another one of Dantonio's great finds?

- Will the arrival of the true freshmen change the depth chart?  On defense, I suspect the answer is no.  The Spartans are way too deep on D.  Maybe the highly rated safety, Demetrious Cox, will have a shot as the season progresses.  On offense, as Dantonio has mentioned, the freshmen receivers and tight ends will have a good shot at earning some playing time.  I would put my money on Aaron Burbridge and Jamare Mills.  I also wouldn't be surprised if some of the speedsters (guys like MacGarrett Kings and Nick Tompkins) got to run some plays to the outside of the tackles.  I think offensive coordinator Dan Roushar has a preference for running to the outside.  That preference actually cost them the Nebraska game, in my opinion, because MSU didn't quite have the speed to run outside the tackles against Nebraska (particularly against their outside linebacker Levonte David).  Kings and Tompkins may actually have the speed to successfully run to the outside against speedier defenses and thus I wouldn't be surprised if the coaches decided not to redshirt them.  

Needing a Good Surprise

A while ago I wrote about how success in college football depends a lot on surprises.  I pointed out that MSU had a good season in 2011 in part because of the surprisingly good play of the linebackers.  Remember?  There was supposed to be a dropoff because of the loss of Greg Jones and Erick Gordon.  In fact, the 2011 linebackers may have been even better than 2010's.  On the other hand, MSU was supposed to have a strong running game, but the O-line struggled so much that MSU's running game came close to last in the B1G.

The obvious surprise MSU needs this year is in the passing game.  We all know that MSU lost Kirk Cousins and its top 3 receivers.  That topic has received plenty of attention in the local media, so I won't say much about it.  The talent in the passing game may actually be better than ever, but we'll have to see if it's enough to overcome the inexperience.  Hopefully, the passing game is not surprisingly awful.

Since this team is really talented, I think it's safe to focus on possible negative surprises.  Let's start with the D-line.  Everyone expects the D-line to be dominant, perhaps even better than last year's.  We expect Anthony Rashad White to pick up where Jerel Worthy left off, and we expect William Golston and Marcus Rush to be even better defensive ends than they were last year.  Tyler Hoover and James Kittredge should also be able to take over for Kevin Pickelmen.

But what if Worthy was actually more special than we know?  I'm telling you, Worthy was a game changer.  He made several plays in several games (vs Ohio State, Michigan, and Wisconsin) that completely shut down the opposing teams' offense.  What if none of our DTs this year can match his disruptiveness?  I think our guys are excellent, but there's always the possibility that Worthy's game-changing ability was more critical to last year's success than we imagine.

The other negative surprise I can imagine is the O-line.  Now, it would take a huge surprise for this year's O-line to play worse than last year's.  I don't think we have to worry much about that scenario.  But what if the O-line turns out to be just mediocre?  Unfortunately, MSU can't afford to have a mediocre line this year.  First of all, the B1G is loaded with talented defensive lines this year.  And second, MSU absolutely must have a strong running game this year.

Last year, the Spartans were able to overcome the weakness of their running game by relying on their strong passing game.  This year, the running game needs to make up for the weakness of the passing game.  Therefore, we can't have a mediocre line.  We need a line that will open holes for the running backs and that will keep pressure off Andrew Maxwell.  A mediocre line would pretty much mean a weak MSU offense.

If I was gambling man, I would bet that MSU will not suffer the negative surprises.  Their D and O lines will be excellent.  I would also bet that MSU will get its good surprise.  Maxwell and the receivers will turn out to be more explosive than expected.  That's why I think MSU will win the B1G and end up in a BCS bowl.

I'm nearly back

Folks, I've obviously been taking the summer off.  Too many things to take care of.  But I can't stay away from MSU football any more than a mosquito can stay away from our sweet Spartan blood.  I am still a terribly busy person, so I've decided to post shorter reports on topics that help maximize my own enjoyment of MSU football.  I'm hoping you will also find the reports helpful.
 
I'll try to write about things like current players, the coaching staff, and committed recruits; but I'm not going to put much time into speculating about recruits that have not committed to MSU.  

On the left you will find those reports categorized.  So for example, when you see a new superstar rising among the Spartans, you should easily be able to find out what I wrote about him way back when he was just a verbal commitment.

Thanks for reading.