Thursday, December 6, 2012
Saturday, November 24, 2012
Thoughts on Minnesota Game
Well, the game unfolded about how I expected -- in fact, I almost nailed the score (I predicted 27 to 10). The Spartan D did better than I expected and the O and the special teams were competent. Gotta keep this short because of family issues.
Offense
Once they stopped messing around with the passing, the offense dominated Minnesota.
The O-line and the Bell-dozer were nearly unstoppable in the running game. The O-line is still struggling in the passing game, particularly because of the struggles at the tackle positions. France and Burkland are struggling with the speed rushers.
Maxwell and the receivers are still a work in progress. Their futility killed many drives.
Defense
I expected them to dominate and they did. They provided good pressure on the quarterback and the secondary played outstanding.
Special teams
Started off weak, but ended with a competent game.
Coaches
No significant problems. My only complaint is that they tried to pass too often when it was clear that Bell was unstoppable. The passing game is simply killing drives.
Upshot
It was a solid victory for MSU, but the same concerns remain. The passing game has not progressed enough throughout this season. That was not an issue today against a weak Minnesota team but it could be an issue in the bowl game. Man, I hope they make enormous progress before next season.
Offense
Once they stopped messing around with the passing, the offense dominated Minnesota.
The O-line and the Bell-dozer were nearly unstoppable in the running game. The O-line is still struggling in the passing game, particularly because of the struggles at the tackle positions. France and Burkland are struggling with the speed rushers.
Maxwell and the receivers are still a work in progress. Their futility killed many drives.
Defense
I expected them to dominate and they did. They provided good pressure on the quarterback and the secondary played outstanding.
Special teams
Started off weak, but ended with a competent game.
Coaches
No significant problems. My only complaint is that they tried to pass too often when it was clear that Bell was unstoppable. The passing game is simply killing drives.
Upshot
It was a solid victory for MSU, but the same concerns remain. The passing game has not progressed enough throughout this season. That was not an issue today against a weak Minnesota team but it could be an issue in the bowl game. Man, I hope they make enormous progress before next season.
Wednesday, November 21, 2012
Preview of Minnesota Game
Ahallrighty, folks. We come to the big one, what Dantonio calls a "program" game. Lose, and this season can be declared an unmitigated disaster. Lose, and we can comfortably declare this the kind of season that can cause much damage to what has been built in the last few years. Win, and then win again in the bowl game, and this season can still be perceived as something slightly less than reasonable. Especially if MSU can finally play 2 complete games. I'm talking about a dominating defensive performance, coupled with competent offensive and special teams performances.
Unfulfilled weekly predictions of MSU victory have exhausted me, but this will the last one for a while, so here goes. MSU's D should be able to keep Minnesota's O under 13 points. Nay, Minnesota is scoring 22.4 points a game, so the Spartan D should actually be able to hold them under 10 points.
I have had a chance to calm down about the last game, so I can objectively say that the MSU offense is on the brink of putting it together. If not for the turnovers, last week, this team would have had the offensive explosion I predicted for them. Dare I, then, predict an explosion this week? Well, I'm relatively confident that they will move the ball very well. The o-line is looking better and better, Bell should have a good game, Dion Sims is back. Maxwell and the receivers are not quite where you want them to be, but they're OK.
But, will they be able finish drives? I've been burned so many times this year than I'm now a little superstitious against predicting an offensive explosion. But at least on paper it looks like they will be able to finish drives and score quite a few points. I guess I'll go with that.
Final score: MSU 27 Minn 10
Unfulfilled weekly predictions of MSU victory have exhausted me, but this will the last one for a while, so here goes. MSU's D should be able to keep Minnesota's O under 13 points. Nay, Minnesota is scoring 22.4 points a game, so the Spartan D should actually be able to hold them under 10 points.
I have had a chance to calm down about the last game, so I can objectively say that the MSU offense is on the brink of putting it together. If not for the turnovers, last week, this team would have had the offensive explosion I predicted for them. Dare I, then, predict an explosion this week? Well, I'm relatively confident that they will move the ball very well. The o-line is looking better and better, Bell should have a good game, Dion Sims is back. Maxwell and the receivers are not quite where you want them to be, but they're OK.
But, will they be able finish drives? I've been burned so many times this year than I'm now a little superstitious against predicting an offensive explosion. But at least on paper it looks like they will be able to finish drives and score quite a few points. I guess I'll go with that.
Final score: MSU 27 Minn 10
Saturday, November 17, 2012
Coaches and Maxwell Should be Watching Stanford
I'm watching the Stanford v. Oregon game and in it you can see the point I made in my post-game analysis about running quarterbacks. You have a redshirt freshman, Kevin Hogan, who looks like the next Andrew Luck. His ability to run with the ball has made a difference. The play on which he ran it for a touchdown is a play in which Maxwell would likely have thrown it away. The bottom line, for me, is that football (especially college football) is sloppy. A majority of the time, plays don't unfold as you design them. You gotta be able to adjust, and that's what running helps you do. Maxwell needs to use his legs a whole lot more, or the coaches need to consider putting in someone who can.
Update: Turns out that Oregon's quarterback, Marcus Mariota, is also a redshirt freshman. So there's another successful example of a running quarterback succeeding at an early age. Oh, and why not add Johnny Manziel at Texas A&M to that list.
Update: Turns out that Oregon's quarterback, Marcus Mariota, is also a redshirt freshman. So there's another successful example of a running quarterback succeeding at an early age. Oh, and why not add Johnny Manziel at Texas A&M to that list.
Thoughts on Northwestern Game
OK, so this game was bad enough to make me question why I care about football. It's hard to understand how MSU could be this bad. The futility is bad enough to make me question the promise of next year's team.
Offense
This is the last time I predict an offensive explosion. The offense actually moved the ball well, but they make too many mistakes.
OK, so I have now come to see Maxwell as a bigger part of the problem. He's too inaccurate and immobile. He frequently doesn't hit wide receivers accurately enough to give them a chance to run after the catch. For example, on one bubble screen Burbridge had to jump for the ball, and by the time he came down the defender was on him. Maxwell shows flashes of brilliance, but that's not enough if you want to win in the B1G.
The receivers were OK today, but they still drop too many balls to be considered outstanding. To win, you have to be outstanding.
The o-line continues to struggle at the tackle positions. Just not quite mobile enough.
Bell was fine, but he does try too often to run to the outside when he should just run up the gut.
Defense
Another great performance wasted. This D completely slowed down a potent offense. They only gave up 16 points. You can't ask for more than that.
Special Teams
I've said it before, this was a terrible year for the special teams to struggle. Sims almost turned the ball over and Conroy missed another easy kick.
Coaches
It was clear in this game that, apart from the defense, the coaches are not having a good year. Two weeks off and this team did not look sharp. Icing the kicker is a myth. I can't believe I saw Dantonio try to do that. I did not like the quarterback sneak in the first quarter. Why would you do that at a time when NU couldn't stop Bell? In general, every time the offense was moving the ball well the play calling seemed to go away from what was working.
Upshot
In the short term, this loss makes me doubt this team will make a bowl game. If they do, they will likely lose. The bottom line for this season is that this offense just can't make enough progress. Every time I think they are getting better, they show a level of incompetence that makes you feel embarrassed.
The progress is so slow that I now actually think next year is in jeopardy. The success of next year's offense will depend on: Maxwell making a considerable amount of progress in the off-season, the receivers and tight-ends becoming outstanding, and the o-line making considerable progress (especially at the tackle positions). That's a lot to ask. I still think the offense will be better next year, but probably not much better. I hate to say it, but they will need a new offensive coordinator, one under which the offense can at least show steady progress. Right now this offense is simply not progressing enough.
More than ever, I am now thinking that this team needs to move towards an offense that better suits the talent this program can recruit and that doesn't depend upon young geniuses. The thing I'm noticing this year is how many teams are doing well with young quarterbacks that can run. Even some freshmen quarterbacks (heck, even Devin Gardner, who was playing wide receiver most of the season!) are doing well because they are able to make plays with their feet. Maxwell has to throw the ball away when his receivers aren't open, even when he actually has a bit of space to run to. If MSU is not going to switch to the spread, then they at least need a quarterback that can run. Fortunately, they have more mobile quarterbacks coming up. But they need to absolutely emphasize that in their recruiting, from now on. The faster the better.
Offense
This is the last time I predict an offensive explosion. The offense actually moved the ball well, but they make too many mistakes.
OK, so I have now come to see Maxwell as a bigger part of the problem. He's too inaccurate and immobile. He frequently doesn't hit wide receivers accurately enough to give them a chance to run after the catch. For example, on one bubble screen Burbridge had to jump for the ball, and by the time he came down the defender was on him. Maxwell shows flashes of brilliance, but that's not enough if you want to win in the B1G.
The receivers were OK today, but they still drop too many balls to be considered outstanding. To win, you have to be outstanding.
The o-line continues to struggle at the tackle positions. Just not quite mobile enough.
Bell was fine, but he does try too often to run to the outside when he should just run up the gut.
Defense
Another great performance wasted. This D completely slowed down a potent offense. They only gave up 16 points. You can't ask for more than that.
Special Teams
I've said it before, this was a terrible year for the special teams to struggle. Sims almost turned the ball over and Conroy missed another easy kick.
Coaches
It was clear in this game that, apart from the defense, the coaches are not having a good year. Two weeks off and this team did not look sharp. Icing the kicker is a myth. I can't believe I saw Dantonio try to do that. I did not like the quarterback sneak in the first quarter. Why would you do that at a time when NU couldn't stop Bell? In general, every time the offense was moving the ball well the play calling seemed to go away from what was working.
Upshot
In the short term, this loss makes me doubt this team will make a bowl game. If they do, they will likely lose. The bottom line for this season is that this offense just can't make enough progress. Every time I think they are getting better, they show a level of incompetence that makes you feel embarrassed.
The progress is so slow that I now actually think next year is in jeopardy. The success of next year's offense will depend on: Maxwell making a considerable amount of progress in the off-season, the receivers and tight-ends becoming outstanding, and the o-line making considerable progress (especially at the tackle positions). That's a lot to ask. I still think the offense will be better next year, but probably not much better. I hate to say it, but they will need a new offensive coordinator, one under which the offense can at least show steady progress. Right now this offense is simply not progressing enough.
More than ever, I am now thinking that this team needs to move towards an offense that better suits the talent this program can recruit and that doesn't depend upon young geniuses. The thing I'm noticing this year is how many teams are doing well with young quarterbacks that can run. Even some freshmen quarterbacks (heck, even Devin Gardner, who was playing wide receiver most of the season!) are doing well because they are able to make plays with their feet. Maxwell has to throw the ball away when his receivers aren't open, even when he actually has a bit of space to run to. If MSU is not going to switch to the spread, then they at least need a quarterback that can run. Fortunately, they have more mobile quarterbacks coming up. But they need to absolutely emphasize that in their recruiting, from now on. The faster the better.
Thursday, November 15, 2012
Preview of Northwestern Game
Alright, it's gut-check time. The Spartans can end the season with a reasonable record if they win the rest of their games. Oddly enough, this first game against Northwestern may be the toughest left on the schedule -- including the bowl game (if they get to 7-5, I can't imagine they'll end up playing a particularly tough opponent). Here is why the Spartans should be able to beat Northwestern.
First and foremost, the Spartan D should be able to slow down Northwestern's offense. Normally I would say that NU's offense is dangerous, but I expect several key players to be hobbled this week. In particular, their starting quarterback Kain Colter suffered an ankle injury against UM that should slow him down a bit. Colter is very dangerous, otherwise. The Spartan D should also benefit from their experience against Nebraska's spread offense. In particular, I hope the coaches have harped on the importance of containment!
The Spartan offense should be able to score points against Northwestern's 41st ranked defense, if the Spartan O plays at least as well as last week. Fortunately, I think the Spartan O has climbed over a hump (though perhaps not over THE hump), and the bye should have helped them consolidate their gains. The o-line will continue to improve, Bell should have a nice game, the receivers and tight ends should match up well against the Northwestern secondary, and Maxwell should play well enough to make us excited about next year.
I'll be inconsolable if the offensive and defensive performances don't match up again. If the offense scores more than 21 points and the Spartans lose, then you know this season was cursed. In the end, I am actually expecting to see an offensive explosion and a solid defensive performance, which translates into a comfortable win for MSU. Expect many people to say, "this is what we were expecting from MSU this season, too bad they weren't able to put it together until now."
Final prediction: MSU 30 Northwestern 14
First and foremost, the Spartan D should be able to slow down Northwestern's offense. Normally I would say that NU's offense is dangerous, but I expect several key players to be hobbled this week. In particular, their starting quarterback Kain Colter suffered an ankle injury against UM that should slow him down a bit. Colter is very dangerous, otherwise. The Spartan D should also benefit from their experience against Nebraska's spread offense. In particular, I hope the coaches have harped on the importance of containment!
The Spartan offense should be able to score points against Northwestern's 41st ranked defense, if the Spartan O plays at least as well as last week. Fortunately, I think the Spartan O has climbed over a hump (though perhaps not over THE hump), and the bye should have helped them consolidate their gains. The o-line will continue to improve, Bell should have a nice game, the receivers and tight ends should match up well against the Northwestern secondary, and Maxwell should play well enough to make us excited about next year.
I'll be inconsolable if the offensive and defensive performances don't match up again. If the offense scores more than 21 points and the Spartans lose, then you know this season was cursed. In the end, I am actually expecting to see an offensive explosion and a solid defensive performance, which translates into a comfortable win for MSU. Expect many people to say, "this is what we were expecting from MSU this season, too bad they weren't able to put it together until now."
Final prediction: MSU 30 Northwestern 14
Sunday, November 11, 2012
Salvaging the Season
Folks, nobody has been more disappointed in the Spartans this year than me. But even I have managed to talk myself into seeing the results of this season as reasonable . . . if the Spartans win the rest of their games. And they should have a good shot at doing that.
If the Spartans win the rest of their games this season, including their bowl game, they will end the season at 8 - 5. That's three fewer wins than last year. When you consider that they played a tough schedule this year, and that they replaced their entire passing game (quarterback, receivers, tight ends), and that they lost 2 of their best defensive players in recent memory (Jerel Worthy and Trenton Robinson), three fewer wins sounds about right.
Sure, we all hoped that the passing game would somehow not struggle and that they wouldn't suffer key injuries (especially on the O-line), but hope usually doesn't pan out. You have to be more honest with yourself about what you have, and I think many of us forgot that. I think that most of us expected this year's Spartans to be where next year's Spartans will be. I think that next season we have much more reason to have extremely high expectations.
This year, we had to be more patient. We should have expected an 8 - 5 season. Of course, if the Spartans don't finish 8 - 5, then we can start to get a little upset. MSU should be able to beat Northwestern, Minnesota, and probably any team they'll face in their bowl game. If they finish below 8 - 5, this team can be deemed to have under-performed. The coaches will deserve much of the blame and they will have to seriously think about making significant changes as they prepare for next season.
If the Spartans win the rest of their games this season, including their bowl game, they will end the season at 8 - 5. That's three fewer wins than last year. When you consider that they played a tough schedule this year, and that they replaced their entire passing game (quarterback, receivers, tight ends), and that they lost 2 of their best defensive players in recent memory (Jerel Worthy and Trenton Robinson), three fewer wins sounds about right.
Sure, we all hoped that the passing game would somehow not struggle and that they wouldn't suffer key injuries (especially on the O-line), but hope usually doesn't pan out. You have to be more honest with yourself about what you have, and I think many of us forgot that. I think that most of us expected this year's Spartans to be where next year's Spartans will be. I think that next season we have much more reason to have extremely high expectations.
This year, we had to be more patient. We should have expected an 8 - 5 season. Of course, if the Spartans don't finish 8 - 5, then we can start to get a little upset. MSU should be able to beat Northwestern, Minnesota, and probably any team they'll face in their bowl game. If they finish below 8 - 5, this team can be deemed to have under-performed. The coaches will deserve much of the blame and they will have to seriously think about making significant changes as they prepare for next season.
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