The Ohio State Game: Many Things Will be Revealed

OK folks, here we go.  We have come to it at last: the most meaningful game of the season, so far.  It's a little trite to say that, of course, because from here on out almost every game is going to become "the most meaningful game of the season, so far."  But let’s not get bogged down with over-thinking things.    

This game is critical for the standard reason.  It's a game that the Spartans must win if they are to contend for the B1G title.  But it's perhaps more important than most games because it is the type of game that should give us a good indication of what we can expect from the Spartans the rest of the season and where they are as a program.  The game against Ohio State could answer several important things:

How far along is the offensive line.  Even with all its scandal problems, Ohio State is still a strong defensive team; so if MSU has weaknesses on the offense, we will clearly see them in this game.  The o-line will certainly be tested, and I hate to say it, but this could get ugly.  I think Fou Fonoti will do well at right tackle.  But Travis Jackson, at center, and Dan France, at left tackle, are sure to struggle.  Our only hope with the o-line is that Jackson is some kind of wunderkind and that France has made giant strides in the 2 weeks since Notre Dame clearly exposed him. 

Can Cousins relax?  If the Spartan o-line has not improved, Kirk Cousins will be pressured all game long and he likely won't handle it well.  Up to this point, I have to agree somewhat with the grumbling that Cousins is kind of playing panicked.  I see him throwing off his back foot quite frequently, even when he isn't being pressured, even against the inferior teams they have faced thus far.  He needs to find a way to relax, and I don't know if this is the game where he will achieve that.  

How good are the wide receivers not named BJ Cunningham?  Wide receiver was supposed to be a position of great strength and depth for the Spartans, but up to this point, only BJ Cunningham has played consistently (spectacularly) for the Spartans.  I expect him to get his fair share of receptions, but I suspect the rest of the receivers will struggle against OSU's athletic secondary.  I anticipate that the Spartan passing game will mostly depend on Cunningham and the tight ends.  Boy do I hope that's enough to create some offense.

How good is the coaching staff?  OSU has trouble on offense and MSU has a solid defense.  OSU is strong on defense and so I expect MSU will likely struggle to move the ball and score points.  Thus, this game has the makings of "Tressel-ball."  That is, as Jim Tressel used to emphasize, winning will depend on defense, special teams, field position, protecting the ball, and limiting mistakes.  Every point is going to count.  If the coaching staff gets "cute" like when they tried the fake field goal against Notre Dame (instead of taking the much needed points), then the probability of losing dramatically increases. 

How far along is the football program under Dantonio?  The buckeyes are missing key players, they have a weak offense led by a freshman quarterback, and while their defense is still strong, it's not as strong as it typically is.  If MSU is ever going to beat OSU, now is the time.  A win at the horseshoe against what is still a strong OSU team tells you that the Spartans can win against tough teams on the road, and that they are making great progress as a program.   A close loss that is attributed to the o-line doesn't tell us much about the status of the program because we can still plausibly wonder what MSU will be like when they finally build a dominant o-line.   If the Spartans choke and get blown out, then we can be more certain that Dantonio is Alvarez--a good coach who likely won't ever get over the hump of beating the elite teams.  As I noted in my piece comparing Dantonio to Alvarez, that’s not necessarily a bad thing, as long as Dantonio continues to build a solid program that can then be handed off to an elite coach.

Prediction

As I noted, I am expecting a defensive battle and I am expecting special teams and turnovers to be the deciding factors in this game.  That means Nick Hill and Keshawn Martin have a chance to make an impact.  I also think that Cousins will play a critical role.  If he plays panicked, then I can see him making several mistakes and OSU capitalizing on those mistakes.  If he can at least avoid the turnovers, MSU has a chance to pull this one out. 

Bottom line: MSU’s offense will perform slightly better against OSU’s defense than OSU’s offense will peform against MSU’s defense.  So the final score will be:

MSU  17  OSU  13