Let me preface this post by saying that I hope that 10 years from now it is beyond clear that this post was foolishly premature. I hope beyond hope that Mark Dantonio is still going strong in 2022. But ever since Dantonio suffered a heart attack two years ago, I have been haphazardly wondering about (a) how much longer he might coach, and (b) who might eventually become MSU's next coach. Here are some thoughts on those issues.
If someone put a gun to my head and demanded my best guess on how much longer Mark Dantonio will end up serving as MSU's head football coach, I would nervously hypothesize that he will be here another 5 years - which would give him a total of about 10 years. I would reason that Dantonio's contract runs another 5 years, and he has been guaranteed a position in the athletic department for 2 years, after he retires. And while his contract can be easily extended, Dantonio is already 56 years old and of course he has health concerns. He might extend his contract for another 2 to 3 years, but probably not much beyond that. In the end, I expect that Mark Dantonio will not be one of those coaches that stays on for decades, and that actually might turn out to be a good thing for the program. How often have we seen great coaches undermine what they have built by staying on too long?
That's why I appreciate what Barry Alvarez did in Wisconsin. Alvarez built up a solid program over 16 years and then walked away when he was still doing quite well (Wisconsin went 10-3 in his final season). Alvarez passed the baton to Brett Bielema, who was then able to take Wisconsin to the next level. I think that that's the kind of coaching transition programs should aspire for, and I think MSU is headed for that kind of transition.
Of course, the other critical component of a successful transition is finding the right replacement. Apparently, that's not such an easy thing to do. How many times have we seen successful programs collapse and or stagnate as soon as they lose their star coach? (MSU after Nick Saban, Notre Dame after Lou Holtz, Nebraska after Tom Ozborne, etc.) Since it's such a challenging task, we might as well start thinking about this topic now.
So who has the capacity to at least keep MSU where Dantonio has brought it? One rule to start with is that the program should probably stay away from outsiders who would need to make significant changes to the program. Michigan's experiment with Rich Rodriguez showed us what can happen with that. I actually think Rodriguez is a pretty good coach, so the fact that he struggled convinces me that MSU should not ever attempt such a transition. MSU has a pro-style program, they are winning with a pros-style program, and they can absolutely find replacements that can win with a pro-style program.
The next rule I would suggest is giving guys from the Dantonio coaching tree the first look. Hiring one of Dantonio's guys would ensure that the system that has brought so much success will largely be kept in place. Perhaps the best positioned of Dantonio's guys are going to be those with head coaching experience. And there's only 3 of them: Dan Enos, Don Treadwell, and Pat Narduzi (who will likely become a head coach next year). Let's just go ahead and scratch off Enos, who may not even survive at Central Michigan after this year.
That leaves us Treadwell and Narduzi. Treadwell is my current favorite at this point, mainly because I liked how well he performed when he took over the program, when Dantonio had his heart attack. Treadwell also has a year of coaching experience at U of Miami (Ohio), where he we went 4-8 in his first season. He will need to improve his record rapidly, considering that Miami actually went 10-4 the year before he arrived. Unfortunately, if he becomes too successful at Miami, it's very likely that other big programs will come calling and he'll be unavailable at the time Dantonio retires. So that's where Treadwell stands. He needs to prove himself, but if he does, the timing could be bad.
Narduzi will likely be in a similar situation. If he leaves next year to become a head coach somewhere, he'll have to show that he can be the top guy at just the right time. The right time would be about 4 or 5 years from now. That's more likely to happen if he ends up a program that needs quite a bit of work. A more established program might allow him to succeed too quickly.
Apart from Treadwell and Narduzi, I could see MSU offering the job to whoever happens to be the offensive or defensive coordinator at the time Dantonio retires. Could current offensive coordinator Dan Roushar still be around at that time? I wasn't completely impressed with Roushar's performance last year, but then again, it was his first year as OC. We'll see how he does this year.
My gut tells me that whoever takes over as defensive coordinator when Narduzi leaves may actually end up being in the right place at the right time. That individual will likely be in that position for the next few years, right up until Dantonio approaches retirement. That individual will also have been in the program for close to 10 years. Who might that be? I suspect that, since Dantonio likes to promote guys from within, it will be Mike Tressel, who is currently the linebackers and special teams coach. He seems to have done a pretty good job in those areas, so I suspect he'll be the next defensive coordinator.
Of course, since we're talking about things that could happen at least 5 years into the future, this topic can only be considered speculation. Nonetheless, it's not too early to start thinking about these things. This is one of those posts that you jot up and then revise a few times over the next few years.
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