Friday, October 5, 2012

Preview of Indiana Game

I think it's safe to say that the season is off to a relatively disappointing start. What did I tell you folks, so much depends on surprises. Last year we had surprisingly good play from the linebackers and more generally from the 2010 class.  This year, we have had mostly bad surprises. The o-line is struggling much more than expected and now has to deal with 2 very key injuries. The receivers are much worse than anticipated. Fowler and Lippett are not ready, and what happened to Arnett? Even the defense has had some relatively negative surprises. Adams and Gholston have not looked like the first rounders we all expected. We also miss Jerel Worthy more than expected, and even Denicos Allen has looked all too human this year.

I don't know if the surprises will start going our way any time soon, but at least for the next few weeks, we should begin to feel like the Spartans still have a chance to win the B1G. Starting with Indiana.

Indiana's offense is ranked 42nd in the nation and is averaging 34.3 points per game. They can put up points, but they haven't faced a defense as good as MSU's. I suspect they'll be tougher to stop than people expect, particularly because they rely quite a bit on their passing game. That's bad for an MSU defense with corners that have given up some big plays and with a d-line that has struggled to pressure the quarterback.

Luckily, Indiana's defense is ranked 73rd in the country, allowing 27 points per game. If MSU can play like it did last week, they should score quite a bit. If they regress and play like they did against Notre Dame and Eastern Michigan, they may not score enough to keep up with Indiana's offense.

Prediction: MSU will come out sharper this week on both sides of the ball. Johnny Adams won't get burned this week and the Spartans will get at least 3 sacks. The offense will continue its incremental improvement. Maxwell and Mumphery will really start to look like stars while Bell and D. Sims consolidate their status as stars. Burbridge will look pretty good and Fowler will finally hold on to the ball and make some big plays.

Final score: MSU 27  Indiana 17

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