Prediction for 2013 Season: Spartans go 12-2

Well folks, it's time to predict how the season will go for MSU. Last year, I was way off. I said the Spartans would go 12-2, and of course they ended up going 7-6. In my defense, most people expected at least 10 wins, but nobody expected the passing game to be as bad as it was. I stuck my neck out again this spring when I made my way-too-early prediction that the Spartans would go 12-2 this season.

Believe it or not, this prediction is a "check down" for me. Back in 2011, I predicted that Mark Dantonio would have his best chance to win a national championship in 2013. The Spartans were going to have a lot of mature talent, especially at quarterback, running back, and the O-line. The defense was also supposed to be peaking.

Well, a lot of those elements are actually now in place, but the Spartans did lose two key pieces (LeVeon Bell and Dion Sims) that I think would have made a huge difference for this team. Moreover, the quarterbacks and receivers are not quite at the level I hoped for, though they should be much better than last year. With that, here is my game by game prediction.

08/30/13 vs. Western Michigan TV East Lansing, Mich.

The Spartans should win this one, as long as they are focused.

09/07/13 vs. South Florida TV East Lansing, Mich.

The Spartans should win this one, but it could be more a struggle than expected. This is a dangerous opponent.

09/14/13 vs. Youngstown State TV East Lansing, Mich.

The Spartans should win this one, as long as they are focused.

09/21/13 at Notre Dame TV Notre Dame, Ind.

This should be the first major challenge, especially because in the last 2 years we have seen Notre Dame's recruiting advantage assert itself along the trenches. MSU's offensive line has been particularly dominated by ND's 5-star d-linemen. If MSU's best line in the Dantonio era can stand up to that talent, then the Spartans have a real shot. If not, we're looking at another futile offensive performance. MSU's defense should do well, but the offense has to find a way. I think they will, not just because the o-line will be pretty good this year, but because I expect the coaches to fully deploy a lot of quarterback runs in this game (probably O'Connor). It should be a close game, but I'm going with MSU in this one.

10/05/13 at Iowa * Iowa City, Iowa

Iowa should struggle this year, but they will be tough at home. If the Spartans are focused, and if the offense is not the disaster it was last year, then MSU should win this one somewhat comfortably.

10/12/13 vs. Indiana (Homecoming) * East Lansing, Mich.

This will be the battle of a great defense (MSU's) versus a great offense (Indiana's). I think MSU's defense will be good enough to allow the offense to win the game with just a decent performance.

10/19/13 vs. Purdue * East Lansing, Mich.

This game will be tougher than expected. Purdue has some talent and a pretty good new coach. I'm hoping that the fact that the coach is new will slow them down a bit. This is a more dangerous opponent than most people anticipate, but MSU should pull it out if they are focused.

10/26/13 at Illinois * Champaign, Ill.

Illinois should struggle this year, and so, MSU should win this one if they are focused.

11/02/13 vs. Michigan * East Lansing, Mich.

MSU will have no trouble getting motivated for this one and I think that MSU should be more talented than UM this year. So, the only way MSU loses this one is if something unexpected happens, like Devin Gardner blowing up or MSU's quarterbacks collapsing.

11/16/13 at Nebraska * Lincoln, Neb.

MSU should have beaten Nebraska last year because it's going to be tougher to do so this year. Nebraska's offense should be one of the best in the country, though their defense will remain a relative liability. I'm hoping MSU will learn from the whoopin Wisconsin put on Nebraska in the B1G championship last year. There is no reason they can't do something like that. But history is against MSU in this one.

11/23/13 at Northwestern * Evanston, Ill.

Northwestern is always a dangerous team, but if MSU's offense is just decent in this one, the Spartans should win.

11/30/13 vs. Minnesota * East Lansing, Mich.

Minnesota will be tougher this year than usual, so this is no gimme. Still, this is a game the Spartans should win, if they are focused.

Upshot

I really think MSU has a good shot to go 11-1 in the regular season, as long their quarterbacks don't collapse or they suffer catastrophic injuries. At worst, I expect the Spartans to be 9-3 in the regular season, and I think that outcome should be considered disappointing. The Spartans are too loaded on D and they just need to "regress to the mean" on offense, and that should be enough to power them past most of the regular season schedule. 

If they do get to 11-1 then they will very likely be playing for the B1G championship, probably against Ohio State. Can they win that one? I think they have a good chance, but it will certainly depend upon how the quarterbacks are playing by that time. I'll call this game a toss-up and throw it to the Spartans - cuz I'm a Spartan slappy! 

So the Spartans get to 12-1 and play in a BCS bowl against one of the top tier SEC teams. They play tough, and lose a close one. And they end the season at 12-2.

Prediction for 2012: Spartans Go 12-2

OK, time to predict how MSU will do this season. This task is fraught with danger, since there are always unforeseen factors that can work for or against the Spartans (e.g, injuries, weather, the emergence of a superstar, good/bad calls by referees, etc., etc.). The way I like to think about things, therefore, is in terms of chance or probabilities. As you'll notice below, I think the probabilities are on the Spartans' side this year, but that doesn't guarantee that they'll win the games they're supposed to win.


08/31/12 vs. Boise State 
The Spartans have major advantages in terms of experience, but Boise State is always always dangerous. If these teams played 10 times, the Spartans would win 7 of them.

09/08/12 at Central Michigan
Central Michigan has been down a few years and I don't expect them to be much better this year. They will likely be tougher than last year, especially because they are playing at home. But MSU would beat them 9 out of 10 times -- the only way the Spartans lose is if they show up unfocused.

09/15/12 vs. Notre Dame 
Notre Dame is always dangerous because of the incredible talent they can recruit. However, they won't match up as well with the Spartans this year as they did last year. Michael Floyd is gone and so is Aaron Lynch (who the Spartan O-line absolutely could not stop). MSU would beat them 7 out of 10 times.

09/22/12 vs. Eastern Michigan
Eastern Michigan has improved under former Wolverine defensive coordinator Ron English. This is a dangerous game if the Spartans take them lightly. If MSU is focused, they should win comfortably. MSU would win 9 out of 10 times.

09/29/12 vs. Ohio State
Ohio State will be better than last year, but they will need another year before they get back to elite status. The Spartans are also at home.  So MSU wins this one 6 out of 10 times.

10/06/12 at Indiana
Indiana will likely be among the worst 3 teams in the B1G this year, so MSU wins this one 8 out of 10 times.

10/13/12 vs. Iowa
Iowa will probably be about as good as they were last year. They will have a senior quarterback, so that adds to their "dangerousness." They are also playing in Spartan Stadium. So MSU would win 7 out of 10 times.

10/20/12 at Michigan
MSU matches up very well with Michigan: MSU's elite secondary will shut down UM's average receivers, MSU's elite D-line will match up well against a thin UM O-line, and MSU's O-line should do well against a weakened UM D-line. They are playing in Ann Arbor, so that makes the game a little tougher. MSU would win 7 out of 10 times.

10/27/12 at Wisconsin
This will be MSU's toughest game of the season. It's tough to win in Madison.  On the other hand, Russell Wilson is gone and Danny O'Brien won't be quite as good (though he should be pretty good). Wisconsin also lost a ton of coaching talent, particularly on the offensive side of the ball. This game is as close to a coin flip as there is on the schedule, but MSU would win 5.5 out of 10 times.

11/03/12 vs. Nebraska
Nebraska has MSU's number, but this is the best MSU team in a long time and they are playing in East Lansing. MSU wins 7 out of 10 times.

11/17/12 vs. Northwestern
Northwestern is always dangerous, especially when taken lightly. Still, the dangerous Dan Persa is gone, so MSU wins 8 out 10 times.

11/24/12 at Minnesota
Minnesota almost beat MSU last year, and Jerry Kill seems like a solid coach. This game will be tougher than most people think, but a focused MSU squad can win comfortably.  MSU would win 8 out of 10 times.

I know it makes me look like a Spartan slappy, but I'm going to go with the probabilities I just laid out and predict that the Spartans win 11 or 12 games in the regular season. If they lose one, it will be to Wisconsin, who they will likely meet again in the B1G championship. This time, the Spartans will win the B1G championship, because the probabilities of victory over Wisconsin increase to 6 in 10 on a neutral site. Of course, if they get to 13-0 or 12-1, then we're looking at a possibility of a national championship. If they get to the national championship game and face a top team like Alabama, their chances of winning that game are about 4 in 10.  I don't think MSU is quite developed enough this year to beat one of the top 3 teams in the country. As I've written before, I think 2013 is MSU's year. But then, I've been wrong about many things, so maybe 2012 will be their year!  Woohoohoo!

Final record: 12-2