Prediction for 2013 Season: Spartans go 12-2

Well folks, it's time to predict how the season will go for MSU. Last year, I was way off. I said the Spartans would go 12-2, and of course they ended up going 7-6. In my defense, most people expected at least 10 wins, but nobody expected the passing game to be as bad as it was. I stuck my neck out again this spring when I made my way-too-early prediction that the Spartans would go 12-2 this season.

Believe it or not, this prediction is a "check down" for me. Back in 2011, I predicted that Mark Dantonio would have his best chance to win a national championship in 2013. The Spartans were going to have a lot of mature talent, especially at quarterback, running back, and the O-line. The defense was also supposed to be peaking.

Well, a lot of those elements are actually now in place, but the Spartans did lose two key pieces (LeVeon Bell and Dion Sims) that I think would have made a huge difference for this team. Moreover, the quarterbacks and receivers are not quite at the level I hoped for, though they should be much better than last year. With that, here is my game by game prediction.

08/30/13 vs. Western Michigan TV East Lansing, Mich.

The Spartans should win this one, as long as they are focused.

09/07/13 vs. South Florida TV East Lansing, Mich.

The Spartans should win this one, but it could be more a struggle than expected. This is a dangerous opponent.

09/14/13 vs. Youngstown State TV East Lansing, Mich.

The Spartans should win this one, as long as they are focused.

09/21/13 at Notre Dame TV Notre Dame, Ind.

This should be the first major challenge, especially because in the last 2 years we have seen Notre Dame's recruiting advantage assert itself along the trenches. MSU's offensive line has been particularly dominated by ND's 5-star d-linemen. If MSU's best line in the Dantonio era can stand up to that talent, then the Spartans have a real shot. If not, we're looking at another futile offensive performance. MSU's defense should do well, but the offense has to find a way. I think they will, not just because the o-line will be pretty good this year, but because I expect the coaches to fully deploy a lot of quarterback runs in this game (probably O'Connor). It should be a close game, but I'm going with MSU in this one.

10/05/13 at Iowa * Iowa City, Iowa

Iowa should struggle this year, but they will be tough at home. If the Spartans are focused, and if the offense is not the disaster it was last year, then MSU should win this one somewhat comfortably.

10/12/13 vs. Indiana (Homecoming) * East Lansing, Mich.

This will be the battle of a great defense (MSU's) versus a great offense (Indiana's). I think MSU's defense will be good enough to allow the offense to win the game with just a decent performance.

10/19/13 vs. Purdue * East Lansing, Mich.

This game will be tougher than expected. Purdue has some talent and a pretty good new coach. I'm hoping that the fact that the coach is new will slow them down a bit. This is a more dangerous opponent than most people anticipate, but MSU should pull it out if they are focused.

10/26/13 at Illinois * Champaign, Ill.

Illinois should struggle this year, and so, MSU should win this one if they are focused.

11/02/13 vs. Michigan * East Lansing, Mich.

MSU will have no trouble getting motivated for this one and I think that MSU should be more talented than UM this year. So, the only way MSU loses this one is if something unexpected happens, like Devin Gardner blowing up or MSU's quarterbacks collapsing.

11/16/13 at Nebraska * Lincoln, Neb.

MSU should have beaten Nebraska last year because it's going to be tougher to do so this year. Nebraska's offense should be one of the best in the country, though their defense will remain a relative liability. I'm hoping MSU will learn from the whoopin Wisconsin put on Nebraska in the B1G championship last year. There is no reason they can't do something like that. But history is against MSU in this one.

11/23/13 at Northwestern * Evanston, Ill.

Northwestern is always a dangerous team, but if MSU's offense is just decent in this one, the Spartans should win.

11/30/13 vs. Minnesota * East Lansing, Mich.

Minnesota will be tougher this year than usual, so this is no gimme. Still, this is a game the Spartans should win, if they are focused.

Upshot

I really think MSU has a good shot to go 11-1 in the regular season, as long their quarterbacks don't collapse or they suffer catastrophic injuries. At worst, I expect the Spartans to be 9-3 in the regular season, and I think that outcome should be considered disappointing. The Spartans are too loaded on D and they just need to "regress to the mean" on offense, and that should be enough to power them past most of the regular season schedule. 

If they do get to 11-1 then they will very likely be playing for the B1G championship, probably against Ohio State. Can they win that one? I think they have a good chance, but it will certainly depend upon how the quarterbacks are playing by that time. I'll call this game a toss-up and throw it to the Spartans - cuz I'm a Spartan slappy! 

So the Spartans get to 12-1 and play in a BCS bowl against one of the top tier SEC teams. They play tough, and lose a close one. And they end the season at 12-2.