OK, time to predict how MSU will do this season. This task is fraught with danger, since there are always unforeseen factors that can work for or against the Spartans (e.g, injuries, weather, the emergence of a superstar, good/bad calls by referees, etc., etc.). The way I like to think about things, therefore, is in terms of chance or probabilities. As you'll notice below, I think the probabilities are on the Spartans' side this year, but that doesn't guarantee that they'll win the games they're supposed to win.
08/31/12 vs. Boise State
The Spartans have major advantages in terms of experience, but Boise State is always always dangerous. If these teams played 10 times, the Spartans would win 7 of them.
09/08/12 at Central Michigan
Central Michigan has been down a few years and I don't expect them to be much better this year. They will likely be tougher than last year, especially because they are playing at home. But MSU would beat them 9 out of 10 times -- the only way the Spartans lose is if they show up unfocused.
09/15/12 vs. Notre Dame
Notre Dame is always dangerous because of the incredible talent they can recruit. However, they won't match up as well with the Spartans this year as they did last year. Michael Floyd is gone and so is Aaron Lynch (who the Spartan O-line absolutely could not stop). MSU would beat them 7 out of 10 times.
09/22/12 vs. Eastern Michigan
Eastern Michigan has improved under former Wolverine defensive coordinator Ron English. This is a dangerous game if the Spartans take them lightly. If MSU is focused, they should win comfortably. MSU would win 9 out of 10 times.
09/29/12 vs. Ohio State
Ohio State will be better than last year, but they will need another year before they get back to elite status. The Spartans are also at home. So MSU wins this one 6 out of 10 times.
10/06/12 at Indiana
Indiana will likely be among the worst 3 teams in the B1G this year, so MSU wins this one 8 out of 10 times.
10/13/12 vs. Iowa
Iowa will probably be about as good as they were last year. They will have a senior quarterback, so that adds to their "dangerousness." They are also playing in Spartan Stadium. So MSU would win 7 out of 10 times.
10/20/12 at Michigan
MSU matches up very well with Michigan: MSU's elite secondary will shut down UM's average receivers, MSU's elite D-line will match up well against a thin UM O-line, and MSU's O-line should do well against a weakened UM D-line. They are playing in Ann Arbor, so that makes the game a little tougher. MSU would win 7 out of 10 times.
10/27/12 at Wisconsin
This will be MSU's toughest game of the season. It's tough to win in Madison. On the other hand, Russell Wilson is gone and Danny O'Brien won't be quite as good (though he should be pretty good). Wisconsin also lost a ton of coaching talent, particularly on the offensive side of the ball. This game is as close to a coin flip as there is on the schedule, but MSU would win 5.5 out of 10 times.
11/03/12 vs. Nebraska
Nebraska has MSU's number, but this is the best MSU team in a long time and they are playing in East Lansing. MSU wins 7 out of 10 times.
11/17/12 vs. Northwestern
Northwestern is always dangerous, especially when taken lightly. Still, the dangerous Dan Persa is gone, so MSU wins 8 out 10 times.
11/24/12 at Minnesota
Minnesota almost beat MSU last year, and Jerry Kill seems like a solid coach. This game will be tougher than most people think, but a focused MSU squad can win comfortably. MSU would win 8 out of 10 times.
I know it makes me look like a Spartan slappy, but I'm going to go with the probabilities I just laid out and predict that the Spartans win 11 or 12 games in the regular season. If they lose one, it will be to Wisconsin, who they will likely meet again in the B1G championship. This time, the Spartans will win the B1G championship, because the probabilities of victory over Wisconsin increase to 6 in 10 on a neutral site. Of course, if they get to 13-0 or 12-1, then we're looking at a possibility of a national championship. If they get to the national championship game and face a top team like Alabama, their chances of winning that game are about 4 in 10. I don't think MSU is quite developed enough this year to beat one of the top 3 teams in the country. As I've written before, I think 2013 is MSU's year. But then, I've been wrong about many things, so maybe 2012 will be their year! Woohoohoo!
Final record: 12-2
Showing posts with label Preview of 2012. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Preview of 2012. Show all posts
Monday, August 27, 2012
Friday, August 24, 2012
What Outback Bowl Might Tell Us About MSU This Year
Just re-watched the Outback Bowl (here) because I'm starved for football and because I wanted to see if that game would yield any insights about this season. Here are a few thoughts I came away with:
The offense struggled most of the game
- The O-line really struggled, and that really hurt the running game.
- The O-line's struggles also meant the passing game struggled. Cousins was pressured a lot, which disrupted his timing most of the game. The receivers also struggled to get open for most of the game.
- The offense was very dependent on big plays from its playmakers. Three guys stepped up big, in my mind: LeVeon Bell (dragged tacklers when there wasn't much running room), Brian Linthicum (made several tough catches), and Keith Nichol (made a few tough catches in the fourth quarter).
The Spartan defense kept them in the game
- They allowed only 18 points in regular time, and 11 of those points were the result of the bad field position handed them by the offense and special teams. They also scored a touchdown on Darqueze Dennard's interception and gave the offense excellent field position on a few occasions.
- The front seven played very well. MSU stuffed Georgia's running game most of the day and they put quite a bit of pressure on Georgia's quarterback (Aaron Murray).
- The defense did give up some big plays, however. Georgia burned the Spartan secondary on some long passes. The Spartan secondary (including Johnny Adams and Trenton Robinson) struggled against Georgia's top receiver (Tavarres King). The Spartan defense and special teams struggled against Georgia's playmaker Brandon Boykin.
Insights into this season
- If Maxwell and the passing game struggle this season, then the Outback Bowl is a good indicator of what this season will be like. The offense will sputter against good defenses, and the Spartan defense will have to keep games close. But I actually think the MSU offense will be better this year for three reasons. First, the O-line will be considerably better than last year. That will improve the running and passing game. Second, the offense will be in its second year under offensive coordinator Dan Roushar. Both the players and Roushar should be more comfortable. I also think that Roushar will have more players that fit better with some of the things he likes to do (like running outside the tackles). Third, MSU could have more explosive playmakers this year than it had last year. I'm particularly hopeful about Dion Sims and Bennie Fowler.
- The Outback Bowl raised one concern for me about the Spartan defense going into this year: they do struggle against elite players (who doesn't? I suppose), especially the secondary. I do think that the Spartan secondary will be better this year than last year, and thus, should match up better against elite receivers. Johnny Adams will be better than ever, and the Outback Bowl has me believing that Darqueze Dennard will be a superstar. Mark my words, if Dennard stays healthy, people will be talking about him as a possible first round draft pick by the end of this season. The Spartans may end up losing their top 3 cornerbacks at the end of this year.
The offense struggled most of the game
- The O-line really struggled, and that really hurt the running game.
- The O-line's struggles also meant the passing game struggled. Cousins was pressured a lot, which disrupted his timing most of the game. The receivers also struggled to get open for most of the game.
- The offense was very dependent on big plays from its playmakers. Three guys stepped up big, in my mind: LeVeon Bell (dragged tacklers when there wasn't much running room), Brian Linthicum (made several tough catches), and Keith Nichol (made a few tough catches in the fourth quarter).
The Spartan defense kept them in the game
- They allowed only 18 points in regular time, and 11 of those points were the result of the bad field position handed them by the offense and special teams. They also scored a touchdown on Darqueze Dennard's interception and gave the offense excellent field position on a few occasions.
- The front seven played very well. MSU stuffed Georgia's running game most of the day and they put quite a bit of pressure on Georgia's quarterback (Aaron Murray).
- The defense did give up some big plays, however. Georgia burned the Spartan secondary on some long passes. The Spartan secondary (including Johnny Adams and Trenton Robinson) struggled against Georgia's top receiver (Tavarres King). The Spartan defense and special teams struggled against Georgia's playmaker Brandon Boykin.
Insights into this season
- If Maxwell and the passing game struggle this season, then the Outback Bowl is a good indicator of what this season will be like. The offense will sputter against good defenses, and the Spartan defense will have to keep games close. But I actually think the MSU offense will be better this year for three reasons. First, the O-line will be considerably better than last year. That will improve the running and passing game. Second, the offense will be in its second year under offensive coordinator Dan Roushar. Both the players and Roushar should be more comfortable. I also think that Roushar will have more players that fit better with some of the things he likes to do (like running outside the tackles). Third, MSU could have more explosive playmakers this year than it had last year. I'm particularly hopeful about Dion Sims and Bennie Fowler.
- The Outback Bowl raised one concern for me about the Spartan defense going into this year: they do struggle against elite players (who doesn't? I suppose), especially the secondary. I do think that the Spartan secondary will be better this year than last year, and thus, should match up better against elite receivers. Johnny Adams will be better than ever, and the Outback Bowl has me believing that Darqueze Dennard will be a superstar. Mark my words, if Dennard stays healthy, people will be talking about him as a possible first round draft pick by the end of this season. The Spartans may end up losing their top 3 cornerbacks at the end of this year.
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