Folks, I want to believe that MSU is going to turn its season around right here, right now. But I have been hoping for that for the last 3 weeks, so I can't pick the Spartans on this one, I just can't.
I do expect a better performance in certain areas. Andrew Maxwell should look about as good as he did against Ohio State, Aaron Burbridge should continue to look like the real deal, and the defense should look sharp. Heck, I even think that OC Dan Roushar will look better this week. All of this should keep the game pretty close.
But in the end, Michigan is just more competent on offense and they're going to score enough points to win this one. I don't see them scoring more than 21, because the Spartan D is too solid. But if they score more than 17 points, that will be enough. UM's defense has actually looked pretty good this year, so there is a strong possibility that MSU might not even score in this game. It just breaks my heart to think and say that.
Final score: MSU 17 UM 20
Thursday, October 18, 2012
Saturday, October 13, 2012
Thoughts on Iowa Game
What can be said? This one is on the coaches. They had the chance to kill a lot of time in the drives before Iowa scored their touchdown, and they chose to pass over and over again. Bell looked like he had momentum late in the fourth quarter, and they flat out went away from him. I know they were trying to be unpredictable, but you just don't do that when it's clear that giving the ball to Bell is working. I won't go into much detail here, because the problems are the same.
Offense
The line continues to struggle.
The receivers are getting better, but they struggled to separate enough from the defenders.
Maxwell regressed. Maybe it was the rain, but this was his worst game of the year.
Defense
Played pretty well, but the d-line is having problems against good o-lines. The d-line is not what we thought it was.
At least Johnny Adams did not give up a huge play.
Coaches
They just got out-coached, again. They are the biggest reason this team is struggling. How does a pathetic offense like Iowa's (with a devastated running back corps and poor receivers) move the ball better than MSU's offense? It comes down to creative play calling. The Iowa coaches simply made more intelligent calls and adjustments than MSU's coaches.
The coaches blew it late in the fourth quarter. They should have tried to run the clock out with Bell, but they kept acting like there was nothing wrong with the passing game. The thing that most clearly shows me that the offensive play calling is flawed is that the coaches kept calling passing plays that take too long to develop. This o-line does not have the talent for those kinds of plays.
I hate to say it, but the sloppiness we've seen 2 weeks in a row is starting to make me think this team is still being coached by JLS.
Upshot
The season is lost. This team will lose it's next 3 games, and I'm not just saying that because I'm a Chicken Little. This offense will not score more than 13 points on any of the next 3 defenses. I think we should now expect a losing season and no bowl game.
This was a critical year for MSU. They had a chance to consolidate their rise to the top of the B1G. But that's just about been smashed to bits. What a devastating season.
Offense
The line continues to struggle.
The receivers are getting better, but they struggled to separate enough from the defenders.
Maxwell regressed. Maybe it was the rain, but this was his worst game of the year.
Defense
Played pretty well, but the d-line is having problems against good o-lines. The d-line is not what we thought it was.
At least Johnny Adams did not give up a huge play.
Coaches
They just got out-coached, again. They are the biggest reason this team is struggling. How does a pathetic offense like Iowa's (with a devastated running back corps and poor receivers) move the ball better than MSU's offense? It comes down to creative play calling. The Iowa coaches simply made more intelligent calls and adjustments than MSU's coaches.
The coaches blew it late in the fourth quarter. They should have tried to run the clock out with Bell, but they kept acting like there was nothing wrong with the passing game. The thing that most clearly shows me that the offensive play calling is flawed is that the coaches kept calling passing plays that take too long to develop. This o-line does not have the talent for those kinds of plays.
I hate to say it, but the sloppiness we've seen 2 weeks in a row is starting to make me think this team is still being coached by JLS.
Upshot
The season is lost. This team will lose it's next 3 games, and I'm not just saying that because I'm a Chicken Little. This offense will not score more than 13 points on any of the next 3 defenses. I think we should now expect a losing season and no bowl game.
This was a critical year for MSU. They had a chance to consolidate their rise to the top of the B1G. But that's just about been smashed to bits. What a devastating season.
Thursday, October 11, 2012
Preview of Iowa Game
Very busy these days, so I'll keep this short and sweet. Folks, the Iowa game is going to give us a lot of asymmetric information. Lose this game, and I think we can safely expect MSU to lose at least 4 more games, and possible 5. Win this game, and we still don't know if MSU is a legit B1G contender -- we won't know that until after the UM game. In any case, this is a game MSU should win.
Offense
MSU will struggle to put up points against Iowa's 26th-ranked defense. The Spartans have made worse defenses look elite, and that won't end here, unfortunately. Iowa has a solid d-line, and we all know the MSU o-line is struggling. I hope for a pleasant surprise, but I predict the running game will be limited. So MSU's scoring will need to come from its receivers and their inconsistency could be an issue. Aaron Burbridge has to have a big game and needs to become the first receiver to play 2 good games in a row. Hopefully, Bennie Fowler will take another step up and we'll see Lawrence Thomas emerge as a legit receiving threat.
Defense
Iowa's offense is about as bad as MSU's, this year. So I expect MSU to keep them pretty much in check most of the day. Watch, then, for Iowa to try to score with some big plays. By now, everyone knows Johnny Adams is struggling, that includes the Iowa coaches. I expect Iowa to go after Adams as many as a dozen times. If he holds, Iowa will score less than 10 points. If he gives up another big play, they'll get around 13 points.
Upshot
MSU should be able to move the ball better than Iowa. But can they score when they get their opportunities? I will predict that the answer is . . . just enough. Burbridge and Fowler will play well again, Mumphery will look like he did against OSU, and LT will catch at least 4. Bell will run for 100 yards and 1 touchdown. That should be enough for MSU to score 17 points.
Final score: MSU 17 Iowa 13
Offense
MSU will struggle to put up points against Iowa's 26th-ranked defense. The Spartans have made worse defenses look elite, and that won't end here, unfortunately. Iowa has a solid d-line, and we all know the MSU o-line is struggling. I hope for a pleasant surprise, but I predict the running game will be limited. So MSU's scoring will need to come from its receivers and their inconsistency could be an issue. Aaron Burbridge has to have a big game and needs to become the first receiver to play 2 good games in a row. Hopefully, Bennie Fowler will take another step up and we'll see Lawrence Thomas emerge as a legit receiving threat.
Defense
Iowa's offense is about as bad as MSU's, this year. So I expect MSU to keep them pretty much in check most of the day. Watch, then, for Iowa to try to score with some big plays. By now, everyone knows Johnny Adams is struggling, that includes the Iowa coaches. I expect Iowa to go after Adams as many as a dozen times. If he holds, Iowa will score less than 10 points. If he gives up another big play, they'll get around 13 points.
Upshot
MSU should be able to move the ball better than Iowa. But can they score when they get their opportunities? I will predict that the answer is . . . just enough. Burbridge and Fowler will play well again, Mumphery will look like he did against OSU, and LT will catch at least 4. Bell will run for 100 yards and 1 touchdown. That should be enough for MSU to score 17 points.
Final score: MSU 17 Iowa 13
Tuesday, October 9, 2012
Recruiting 2013: Delton Williams
The Spartans inched closer to wrapping up their 2013 recruiting class today with the commitment of Pennsylvania athlete Delton Williams.
Evaluations: Williams is considered a 3-star recruit by all recruiting services, except ESPN which rates him 4 stars. He also holds scholarship offers from several good programs, including: Boston College, Illinois, Nebraska, Penn State, Pittsburgh, and West Virginia.
Measurables: Williams is as 6'2" and about 205 lbs. Only 247 reports a 40-time for him: 4.6 seconds. For a linebacker that would be pretty good, but it's a little mediocre for other positions Williams might end up at. Let's see what his video reveals.
Keep in mind that this is video from Williams' junior year, but it does look like the 4.6 speed is about right. Like I said, that's pretty good speed for a linebacker, but probably a little mediocre for a safety or receiver. Thus, I think his highest potential is at linebacker, especially since he shows pretty good tackling ability. However, the Spartans are already bringing in 2 linebackers and 2 wide receivers, so I suspect they intend to have him play safety. Maybe he'll look a little faster in this senior year video and then I'll feel more comfortable seeing Williams at safety or receiver.
Upshot: Williams has been a Spartan target for a long time and he finally committed. He should be a good addition to the class, and I'm really excited to see his senior year highlights.
Williams' commitment brings the Spartans down to about 1 or 2 scholarships, depending on if Fou Fonoti comes back next year. They may also lose LeVeon Bell and Will Gholston, and that would give them a couple extra scholarships. Otherwise, I suspect the Spartans are going to wrap up the class with a defensive tackle (Kyle Peko) and perhaps an offensive guard (hopefully Caleb Benenoch).
Evaluations: Williams is considered a 3-star recruit by all recruiting services, except ESPN which rates him 4 stars. He also holds scholarship offers from several good programs, including: Boston College, Illinois, Nebraska, Penn State, Pittsburgh, and West Virginia.
Measurables: Williams is as 6'2" and about 205 lbs. Only 247 reports a 40-time for him: 4.6 seconds. For a linebacker that would be pretty good, but it's a little mediocre for other positions Williams might end up at. Let's see what his video reveals.
Keep in mind that this is video from Williams' junior year, but it does look like the 4.6 speed is about right. Like I said, that's pretty good speed for a linebacker, but probably a little mediocre for a safety or receiver. Thus, I think his highest potential is at linebacker, especially since he shows pretty good tackling ability. However, the Spartans are already bringing in 2 linebackers and 2 wide receivers, so I suspect they intend to have him play safety. Maybe he'll look a little faster in this senior year video and then I'll feel more comfortable seeing Williams at safety or receiver.
Upshot: Williams has been a Spartan target for a long time and he finally committed. He should be a good addition to the class, and I'm really excited to see his senior year highlights.
Williams' commitment brings the Spartans down to about 1 or 2 scholarships, depending on if Fou Fonoti comes back next year. They may also lose LeVeon Bell and Will Gholston, and that would give them a couple extra scholarships. Otherwise, I suspect the Spartans are going to wrap up the class with a defensive tackle (Kyle Peko) and perhaps an offensive guard (hopefully Caleb Benenoch).
Saturday, October 6, 2012
Thoughts on Indiana Game
Well folks, that was ugly. Obviously, there are some encouraging things, but this game also raised some new concerns, particularly with the coaching.
Offense
MSU's offense continues to make bad defenses look like world beaters.
Obviously, the o-line continues to struggle. They still can't open running holes, even against an Indiana team with a poor run defense. That's terrifying, going forward.
The receivers are still having some problems, particularly with separating from defenders. The worst thing is that Dion Sims may be lost to injury. The second worst thing is that Mumphery struggled, which basically means that no receiver has played well for at least 2 games in a row. That means there is no go-to receiver. At least Burbridge looked pretty good, but let's see if he can do it 2 weeks in a row. Fowler also looked better, but he needs to also show consistency. Hat-tip to Lawrence Thomas, who is looking like he could be the next Sims. I love how he is being used.
Maxwell played pretty well. But he didn't play as well this week as last week.
LeVeon Bell had another good game, but I'm starting to think that the Spartans need a lightning option at running back. They need a home run hitter. That means using Nick Hill more often or burning the redshirt of Nick Tompkins. LeVeon Bell is great, but his lack of home run speed limits the number of plays the offense can run and increases predictability.
Defense
I thought the Spartans would have a tougher time with Indiana's offense than most expected. But I didn't think they would struggle this much. This game suggests that MSU has problems with good passing teams. Fortunately, there are not many good passing teams in the B1G.
The safeties (Lewis, Drummond, Jones, and Williamson) and Bullough are turning out to be the heart and soul of this defense. The d-line and outside linebackers and cornerbacks are pretty good, but not the elite pieces we expected.
Special Teams
It's sad that in a year where the offense is struggling, the special teams are as well. Nick Hill actually gave that ball away at the end. And why even try to block any more punts? Blocking a punt or a kick works like 1 out of 10 times, while it more often seems to lead to drive-extending personal fouls.
Coaches
This game made it rather clear that the coaches are as much of a problem this year as the inexperience of the players. To begin with, the Spartans started this game undisciplined and unmotivated, and that's on the coaches.
But worst of all, Indiana's play calling shows how problematic MSU's play calling has been. First-year(!) Indiana coaches were able to use the talent they have to nearly upset the Spartans, while MSU's coaches continue to try to do things their talent does not allow them to do. Indiana showed a lot more creativity on both sides of the ball, which is what you need to do when you don't have great talent.
Particularly on offense, the Spartan coaches need to get creative with their play calling. They need to compensate for their lack of talent/experience. They should re-watch what Indiana did today in the first half and take notes.
Even the defense needs to adjust for its level of talent. They need to stop acting like they still have Jerel Worthy and like the cornerbacks are elite. They need to start showing some more creativity -- blitz from different positions and drop a defensive end into coverage now and then (I don't know).
Upshot
This game does not bode well for the rest of the season. MSU's offense has now looked anemic against everyone but CMU. If they struggled this much against Indiana, I don't see this offense scoring many points against even mediocre defenses. Iowa will hold this offense to under 17 points. That is, unless Mumphery, Burbridge, and Thomas have huge games.
Offense
MSU's offense continues to make bad defenses look like world beaters.
Obviously, the o-line continues to struggle. They still can't open running holes, even against an Indiana team with a poor run defense. That's terrifying, going forward.
The receivers are still having some problems, particularly with separating from defenders. The worst thing is that Dion Sims may be lost to injury. The second worst thing is that Mumphery struggled, which basically means that no receiver has played well for at least 2 games in a row. That means there is no go-to receiver. At least Burbridge looked pretty good, but let's see if he can do it 2 weeks in a row. Fowler also looked better, but he needs to also show consistency. Hat-tip to Lawrence Thomas, who is looking like he could be the next Sims. I love how he is being used.
Maxwell played pretty well. But he didn't play as well this week as last week.
LeVeon Bell had another good game, but I'm starting to think that the Spartans need a lightning option at running back. They need a home run hitter. That means using Nick Hill more often or burning the redshirt of Nick Tompkins. LeVeon Bell is great, but his lack of home run speed limits the number of plays the offense can run and increases predictability.
Defense
I thought the Spartans would have a tougher time with Indiana's offense than most expected. But I didn't think they would struggle this much. This game suggests that MSU has problems with good passing teams. Fortunately, there are not many good passing teams in the B1G.
The safeties (Lewis, Drummond, Jones, and Williamson) and Bullough are turning out to be the heart and soul of this defense. The d-line and outside linebackers and cornerbacks are pretty good, but not the elite pieces we expected.
Special Teams
It's sad that in a year where the offense is struggling, the special teams are as well. Nick Hill actually gave that ball away at the end. And why even try to block any more punts? Blocking a punt or a kick works like 1 out of 10 times, while it more often seems to lead to drive-extending personal fouls.
Coaches
This game made it rather clear that the coaches are as much of a problem this year as the inexperience of the players. To begin with, the Spartans started this game undisciplined and unmotivated, and that's on the coaches.
But worst of all, Indiana's play calling shows how problematic MSU's play calling has been. First-year(!) Indiana coaches were able to use the talent they have to nearly upset the Spartans, while MSU's coaches continue to try to do things their talent does not allow them to do. Indiana showed a lot more creativity on both sides of the ball, which is what you need to do when you don't have great talent.
Particularly on offense, the Spartan coaches need to get creative with their play calling. They need to compensate for their lack of talent/experience. They should re-watch what Indiana did today in the first half and take notes.
Even the defense needs to adjust for its level of talent. They need to stop acting like they still have Jerel Worthy and like the cornerbacks are elite. They need to start showing some more creativity -- blitz from different positions and drop a defensive end into coverage now and then (I don't know).
Upshot
This game does not bode well for the rest of the season. MSU's offense has now looked anemic against everyone but CMU. If they struggled this much against Indiana, I don't see this offense scoring many points against even mediocre defenses. Iowa will hold this offense to under 17 points. That is, unless Mumphery, Burbridge, and Thomas have huge games.
Friday, October 5, 2012
Preview of Indiana Game
I think it's safe to say that the season is off to a relatively disappointing start. What did I tell you folks, so much depends on surprises. Last year we had surprisingly good play from the linebackers and more generally from the 2010 class. This year, we have had mostly bad surprises. The o-line is struggling much more than expected and now has to deal with 2 very key injuries. The receivers are much worse than anticipated. Fowler and Lippett are not ready, and what happened to Arnett? Even the defense has had some relatively negative surprises. Adams and Gholston have not looked like the first rounders we all expected. We also miss Jerel Worthy more than expected, and even Denicos Allen has looked all too human this year.
I don't know if the surprises will start going our way any time soon, but at least for the next few weeks, we should begin to feel like the Spartans still have a chance to win the B1G. Starting with Indiana.
Indiana's offense is ranked 42nd in the nation and is averaging 34.3 points per game. They can put up points, but they haven't faced a defense as good as MSU's. I suspect they'll be tougher to stop than people expect, particularly because they rely quite a bit on their passing game. That's bad for an MSU defense with corners that have given up some big plays and with a d-line that has struggled to pressure the quarterback.
Luckily, Indiana's defense is ranked 73rd in the country, allowing 27 points per game. If MSU can play like it did last week, they should score quite a bit. If they regress and play like they did against Notre Dame and Eastern Michigan, they may not score enough to keep up with Indiana's offense.
Prediction: MSU will come out sharper this week on both sides of the ball. Johnny Adams won't get burned this week and the Spartans will get at least 3 sacks. The offense will continue its incremental improvement. Maxwell and Mumphery will really start to look like stars while Bell and D. Sims consolidate their status as stars. Burbridge will look pretty good and Fowler will finally hold on to the ball and make some big plays.
Final score: MSU 27 Indiana 17
I don't know if the surprises will start going our way any time soon, but at least for the next few weeks, we should begin to feel like the Spartans still have a chance to win the B1G. Starting with Indiana.
Indiana's offense is ranked 42nd in the nation and is averaging 34.3 points per game. They can put up points, but they haven't faced a defense as good as MSU's. I suspect they'll be tougher to stop than people expect, particularly because they rely quite a bit on their passing game. That's bad for an MSU defense with corners that have given up some big plays and with a d-line that has struggled to pressure the quarterback.
Luckily, Indiana's defense is ranked 73rd in the country, allowing 27 points per game. If MSU can play like it did last week, they should score quite a bit. If they regress and play like they did against Notre Dame and Eastern Michigan, they may not score enough to keep up with Indiana's offense.
Prediction: MSU will come out sharper this week on both sides of the ball. Johnny Adams won't get burned this week and the Spartans will get at least 3 sacks. The offense will continue its incremental improvement. Maxwell and Mumphery will really start to look like stars while Bell and D. Sims consolidate their status as stars. Burbridge will look pretty good and Fowler will finally hold on to the ball and make some big plays.
Final score: MSU 27 Indiana 17
Thursday, October 4, 2012
Scout Confirms MSU's Strong Recruiting Start for 2014
Scout recently came out with its first look at the top 300 recruits of the 2014 class. It is very early, but MSU is nonetheless well represented. Three Spartan commits made the list.
Drake Harris (WR) is the highest rated Spartan at 39.
Byron Bullough (OLB) came in at 205.
Deon Drake (OLB) came in at 290.
Several Spartan targets also made the list.
Malik McDowell (DE) at 15. He is the highest rated recruit in Michigan. He has shown interest in MSU, but he can literally go anywhere he wants, so it will be tough to get him.
Damon Webb (CB) at 33. He is a Cass Tech kid, which means he'll likely favor Michigan. But the Spartans now have two of his teammates coming to East Lansing, and MSU is "cornerback U."
Tommy Doles (OG) at 252. He is a teammate of Drake Harris, so the Spartans should have a solid chance of getting him.
Thaddeus Snodgrass (WR) at 122. He is the highest rated receiver in Ohio and has shown strong interest in the Spartans.
Clifton Garrett (MLB) at 45. He was in East Lansing for most of this past weekend.
Drake Harris (WR) is the highest rated Spartan at 39.
Byron Bullough (OLB) came in at 205.
Deon Drake (OLB) came in at 290.
Several Spartan targets also made the list.
Malik McDowell (DE) at 15. He is the highest rated recruit in Michigan. He has shown interest in MSU, but he can literally go anywhere he wants, so it will be tough to get him.
Damon Webb (CB) at 33. He is a Cass Tech kid, which means he'll likely favor Michigan. But the Spartans now have two of his teammates coming to East Lansing, and MSU is "cornerback U."
Tommy Doles (OG) at 252. He is a teammate of Drake Harris, so the Spartans should have a solid chance of getting him.
Thaddeus Snodgrass (WR) at 122. He is the highest rated receiver in Ohio and has shown strong interest in the Spartans.
Clifton Garrett (MLB) at 45. He was in East Lansing for most of this past weekend.
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