Review of Nebraska Game: Such Sadness

 

Before reflecting on the Nebraska game, I should probably give myself a few hours to work through some intense emotions.  Perhaps that would keep me from saying something I'll later regret.  But bahhh!  I'll take my chances.

They've done it again, folks.  Broken our hearts on Holloween weekend.  I know what a rational person would say: "hey, if you had told me they would go 3-1 against OSU, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nebraska, I would be ecstatic!"  But folks, that's not good enough at this moment.

You see, they could have played much better.  But the Spartans weren't even close to competitive.  They got blown out, just like against Iowa last year.  This game was over by the middle of the third quarter.

At this time, I blame the offense -- almost every component of the offense.  Cousins played his worst game.  Forcing balls into double coverage, taking sacks instead of throwing the ball away.  It didn't help that the O-line played poorly.  But the O-line and Cousins were made to look worse than they were by the futility of the wide receivers.

Boy did I get this one wrong.  I anticipated that the Spartan receivers would dominate a weaker Nebraska secondary.  But the receivers could not get open and the few times they did, they dropped several passes.  Granted, I thought that the Nebraska corners were too physical.  They should have been called for pass interference more often.  Nonetheless, Cousins had no one to throw to most of the day, and the O-line could not protect him all day.

As bad as the players played, though, I think this loss comes down to coaching.  Of course they blew it with their lack of urgency in the fourth quarter, but that was actually a relatively minor issue.  The big issue is that this game was essentially a battle of offensive coordinators.  Theirs was on fire, ours struggled.  We saw what theirs did to befuddle the Spartan defense, and we saw Dan Roushar stubbornly stick to what wasn't working.

I'm no professional offensive coordinator, so surely there are things the Spartan coaches are aware of that I could never hope to understand.  But in my mind, it looked like the play-calling stubbornly kept going towards things that weren't working, while not sticking enough with the things that were working. 

What was working from the very first drive was running between the tackles.  I felt that the Spartans were having a lot of success pounding the ball up the middle, and I kept saying to myself, "just keep doing it until they find a way to stop it."  Well, we didn't even give them a chance to find a way to stop it because Roushar seemed eager to show his "unpredictability" by throwing on first down or trying to run the ball to the outside.  That's fine when you find that those things are working.  But if they are not, you have to recognize that.  Many drives stalled when the Spartans couldn't complete a pass on first down or when they couldn't run around Nebraska's speedy defense. 

Funny thing is that Nebraska actually appeared to recognize that running up the middle was working for them, as well.  They ran the ball up the middle quite a bit, especially on their scoring drives.  Meanwhile, the Spartans never seemed to recognize what was working until one of the last drives in the game, when they ran up the middle several times in a row.  By then it was way too late.

In the end, this outcome can probably be chalked up more to the fact that the Spartans were playing their 4rth tough game in a row.  That fact alone probably gave Nebraska a scouting advantage that turned out to be the difference.  They did seem to be well-prepared, almost as if they could anticipate too easily what the Spartan offense was going to do.

Oh well.  Onto Minnesota. 

Preview of Nebraska Game

Alright, we have arrived at the final game of what at the beginning of the season seemed the most brutal 4-game stretch in recent MSU history.  So far, it has turned out that this stretch was not quite as tough as expected.  Ohio State was weaker than expected, but then Michigan turned out to be stronger than expected, and Wisconsin turned out to be as tough as expected.  Now the Spartans face a Nebraska team that seems to be weaker than expected. 

Yes, Nebraska is 6-1 and ranked 13th in the nation, but it has not looked particularly dominant in most of its games.  They were blown out by Wisconsin (17-48) and then they barely beat a weak Ohio State team (34-27).  I also caught part of their game last week against Minnesota.  And while they ended up blowing out Minnesota (41-14), they did so largely thanks to their overwhelming athleticism.  Minnesota actually played them pretty well, except for several huge plays, where some Nebraska skill player was able to easily outrun the entire Minnesota defense. 

The strange thing about Nebraska is that their offense and defense have completely switched roles this year.  Nebraska is supposed to be dominant on defense, but at this point their defense is ranked 53rd in total defense and is giving up 25 points a game.  Their offense is usually weak, but this year they are ranked 20th in the nation, scoring 37.6 points a game. 

Ultimately, I think the Spartans match up well against Nebraska.  They have a defense that should be able to slow down Nebraska's offense to the same extent that Wisconsin did.  I actually think Nebraska's offense has improved since they faced Wisconsin, so I think they will actually score around 21 points in this game (a few more points than they scored against Wisconsin).  Martinez will get pressured and he will not be as effective as he was against Minnesota, but Nebraska also has a lot of talent on offense.

The Spartans may actually match up better on offense.  MSU's offense is actually starting to come together, indeed they put up 37 points on a very good Wisconsin defense.  I expect them to put up approximately the same number of points against Nebraska.  The Nebraska secondary is struggling this year, and I think they will have a difficult time matching up with the Spartan receivers.  The Nebraska line is also weakened by the loss of defensive tackle Jared Crick (for the season).  They will still be somewhat stout against the run, but the Spartan running backs will get over 150 yards. 

So, as long as there are no surprises on special teams, turnovers, or weird coaching decisions, I expect the Spartans to win relatively comfortably.

Final score: MSU 37  Nebraska 21

Unit of Greatest Concern for 2012: Wide Receivers

The Spartans are of course having a great 2011 season, but it's never too early to start thinking about next year.  One thing that has caught my eye is that the Spartans should be better everywhere, except at quarterback and wide receiver.  I'm less worried about quarterback because Andrew Maxwell should become at least an adequate replacement for Kirk Cousins, but the receiving unit could actually become an even bigger liability than the O-line was this year.

The Spartans will be graduating their two best receivers, BJ Cunningham and Keshawn Martin, and solid backup, Keith Nicol.  They are also graduating two of their best tight ends, Brian Linthicum and Garrett Celek.  At this point, tight end is a little less of a worry because Dion Sims will be back next year as a junior and I actually expect him to become first-round draft material. 

At wide receiver, however, there is nobody we can point to at this time that appears to be a lock to become a stud receiver, next year.  Bennie Fowler will be a junior next year and he has shown flashes of brilliance.  Of course, he hasn't played yet this year because of injury, so we haven't had a good opportunity to gauge his abilities. Tony Lippett will be a redshirt sophomore next year, and he too has shown flashes of brilliance.  This year the coaches have been playing him at receiver and corner, but considering the scarcity at receiver next year, I would expect him to switch to full time receiver. 

After Fowler and Lippett, the pickings are slim, or I should say: unproven.  Redshirt freshman Keith Mumphery is listed as the third receiver for the Z position.  I can't remember seeing him play in any games this season, but apparently he has played since he is credited with 2 receptions for 39 yards.  According to Scout, he was a 3-star recruit with good size and speed.  Still, if he emerges next year, we would have to call that a pleasant surprise. 

After Mumphery, no other receivers are listed on the depth chart, so we need to look for the emergence of receivers from the more recent recruiting classes.  In 2011, the Spartans only took one receiver, Juwan Caeser.  Scout has him rated as a 3-star recruit with good height (6'4") and decent speed (4.65 in the 40).  He could contribute next year, but considering how little information there is on him, that would only be speculation.

The 2012 class may offer some hope.  Of course, Aaron Burbridge is the highest-rated of the receivers committed to the Spartans and in my mind he looks like a potential superstar who will play his freshman year.  His contributions as a freshman will likely be limited, but I would expect him to be good enough to contribute around 40 receptions. 

The Spartans also have 2 other 3-star recruits in the 2012 class: MacGarrett Kings and Kyle Kerrick.  Kerrick has great size and moves well, while Kings is likely to become a slot receiver that runs good routes and has good hands.  It's hard to predict what they will be able to contribute next year, but I would expect them to redshirt at this point. 

The final place to look for a contribution to next year's receiving core is from receivers that have yet to commit.  The Spartans are hoping to get Monty Madaris to commit and I could see him earning playing time as a freshman.  Scout rates him as a 4-star recruit, with great size and speed.  Another potential recruit is Corey Smith, who is rated as a 3-star recruit.  He may actually be able to contribute right away because he is already playing at the college level, at Grand Rapids Community College. 

So, the bottom line is that the Spartans will be quite young at wide receiver.  Clearly, this position has the potential to become the biggest liability on next year's team.  On the other hand, I think Fowler, Lippett, and Burbridge all have star potential, and they even have the potential to eventually become the strongest group of receivers in Spartan history.  For the Spartans' sake, however, I hope they play like stars early on in their careers.

Quick Thoughts on Wisconsin Game

Let me see if I can stop doing the Snoopy dance long enough to write some thoughts about last night's game.  Well, what can I possibly say that won't feel trite?  It was a great game: two titans going back and forth, and a hail Marry to win it.  It was a great victory:  the Spartans beat a top 5 team and are now well on their way to winning the Legends division.  It was the Spartan's greatest victory in a long, long time: I can't remember them beating a higher-ranked opponent, and I certainly can't remember them winning three more quality games in a row (OSU, Michigan, and now Wisconsin).   The Spartans have arrived folks, they are a legitimate top 10 team, they are a even a legitimate top 10 program.  Only a top 10 program wins the three games the Spartans have won the last 3 weeks.

Quick observations

- As I suggested before the game, the two teams were evenly matched.  In fact, after watching this game, I think Wisconsin may be a slightly more complete team, largely because MSU's O-line was more of a liability than any unit for Wisconsin.  The O-line played well at times, but there were many drives where the Wisconsin D-line was able on its own to stop MSU's running game and pressure Cousins.

- Overall, the MSU offense came through.  They actually did more than I said they needed to do.  I said the Spartans needed to follow the 30-30 plan: the defense had to keep Wisconsin under 30 points and the offense had to score 30 points.  Well, the defense didn't quite do its part, but the offense did more, scoring 37.

- Kirk Cousins was excellent.  He looked like the quarterback I expected him to be, at the beginning of the season.  Despite some struggles, Cousins will go down as MSU's greatest quarterback.  And while it may take him a few years, he will succeed in the NFL.

- The defense definitely struggled.  Granted, coming into this game, Wisconsin had the number one offense in the country; but I couldn't help but think that Wisconsin could have scored a couple extra touchdowns if a few things had gone their way.  The bottom line: the Spartan defense had major troubles dealing with the balanced nature of the Badgers' offense.  Then again, is there any defense in the country that wouldn't struggle with that?

- Mark Dantonio is an elite coach.  He is not Barry Alvarez, he is not the guy who builds a solid program so that the next coach that takes over the program can compete for the national championship.  He IS the guy that competes for the national championship.  With Dantonio, MSU has skipped the Barry Alvarez stage of program building and gone straight to the Brett Bielema stage.  Spartan fans can celebrate that fact, but we should also worry, at least a little.  I guarantee other programs recognize Dantonio's eliteness and will be considering pulling Dantonio away from MSU.  I happen to think that Dantonio will stay, in large part because of his health issues.  With his heart history, I can't imagine that he will coach for more than another 5-7 years and that really only gives him enough time to build something special in East Lansing and not anyplace else.