Alright, we have arrived at the final game of what at the beginning of the season seemed the most brutal 4-game stretch in recent MSU history. So far, it has turned out that this stretch was not quite as tough as expected. Ohio State was weaker than expected, but then Michigan turned out to be stronger than expected, and Wisconsin turned out to be as tough as expected. Now the Spartans face a Nebraska team that seems to be weaker than expected.
Yes, Nebraska is 6-1 and ranked 13th in the nation, but it has not looked particularly dominant in most of its games. They were blown out by Wisconsin (17-48) and then they barely beat a weak Ohio State team (34-27). I also caught part of their game last week against Minnesota. And while they ended up blowing out Minnesota (41-14), they did so largely thanks to their overwhelming athleticism. Minnesota actually played them pretty well, except for several huge plays, where some Nebraska skill player was able to easily outrun the entire Minnesota defense.
The strange thing about Nebraska is that their offense and defense have completely switched roles this year. Nebraska is supposed to be dominant on defense, but at this point their defense is ranked 53rd in total defense and is giving up 25 points a game. Their offense is usually weak, but this year they are ranked 20th in the nation, scoring 37.6 points a game.
Ultimately, I think the Spartans match up well against Nebraska. They have a defense that should be able to slow down Nebraska's offense to the same extent that Wisconsin did. I actually think Nebraska's offense has improved since they faced Wisconsin, so I think they will actually score around 21 points in this game (a few more points than they scored against Wisconsin). Martinez will get pressured and he will not be as effective as he was against Minnesota, but Nebraska also has a lot of talent on offense.
The Spartans may actually match up better on offense. MSU's offense is actually starting to come together, indeed they put up 37 points on a very good Wisconsin defense. I expect them to put up approximately the same number of points against Nebraska. The Nebraska secondary is struggling this year, and I think they will have a difficult time matching up with the Spartan receivers. The Nebraska line is also weakened by the loss of defensive tackle Jared Crick (for the season). They will still be somewhat stout against the run, but the Spartan running backs will get over 150 yards.
So, as long as there are no surprises on special teams, turnovers, or weird coaching decisions, I expect the Spartans to win relatively comfortably.
Final score: MSU 37 Nebraska 21
It was tough writing the Preview on our site because I ultimately think Nebraska is shit and doesn't really have a chance to win. However, that seems cocky and dumb, so I included the MSU sometimes forgets to show up card.
ReplyDeleteIt should be interesting either way.
Yeah, the intangibles can always come back to bite you. But on paper, it really does look like MSU should win this one. The one last concern I could have is that MSU has played 3 tough opponents in a row, so they may have been forced to reveal their entire playbook by this point. Nebraska thus has a scouting advantage. Anyway, I'm going over to your site right now to check out your preview.
ReplyDelete