Thoughts on Results of UM vs Northwestern

Well, the first half of this game looked pretty good for the Spartans.  Denard Robinson had major problems with his passing, throwing 3 interceptions, and the UM offense was only able to put up 14 points.  Moreover, the UM defense seemed powerless to stop Dan Persa's passing and Northwestern's option plays.  At the end of the first half I declared that MSU would dominate the game against UM next week.

But then came the second half.  Denard Robinson stopped throwing interceptions, he showed a lot more accuracy (completed 7/8), and UM scored 28 points--to finish with a total of 42.  The UM defense also played much better and completely shut down Northwestern's offense (they scored 0 points in the second half). 

So, no question about it, Michigan will be a tough opponent next week.  They are playing well on both sides of the ball.  Still, I would say that it's their defense that has been most impressive, while their offense has yet to be tested by a stout defense. 

Defensively, they have shut down good offenses.  They struggled against Notre Dame, but since then they shut down offenses that were putting up a lot of points, including Northwestern.  I am most impressed by their ability to keep Northwestern scoreless in the second half.  That really tells you that they are pretty good.  MSU will have a hard time scoring points on them, though I think the Spartans could get off to a fast start in the first half (the same as Northwestern did).

Offensively, they have scored a lot of points in all their games, but they have also not faced a defense as good as MSU's -- it was not surprising to see them score so many points against Northwestern.   So this could be the key to the game.  Will UM's offense be able to score points against a stout MSU defense? 

UM has a good offensive line that gave Robinson all kinds of time to throw the ball yesterday.  Then again, MSU dominated a good Ohio State o-line just last week.  I think UM's o-line may be better than OSU's, so the Spartans won't be able to pressure Robinson as much as they did OSU's Braxton Miller, but they should still be able to apply quite a bit of pressure.  I expect that Robinson will not handle that pressure very well, and consequently, UM's offense will struggle much more than they're used to.

Robinson will also struggle because MSU has a good secondary that won't let his receivers get as open as they have been able to get, up to this point.  UM's receivers are talented, but they don't have a dominant talent like Michael Floyd.  

Apart from Robinson, Michigan doesn't have a great running game.  They have solid running backs, but MSU is good against the run.  I expect MSU to be able to stifle UM's running game and to force Robinson to throw much more than he is comfortable with.

So, the bottom line is that I expect MSU's defense to do quite well against UM's offense.  If MSU can put points up early (and later I will talk more about how MSU's offense will do against UM's defense), then I think they will be able to hold the lead throughout the rest of the game.