MSU's Offense vs UM's Defense

In my last post, I kind of concluded that the Spartan defense should do well against UM's offense.  So here I'm taking a closer look at how the Spartan offense matches up against UM's defense.  The bottom line is that MSU's offense will face a good UM defense this week.  While I don't think UM is that good in terms of talent, they do have an elite defensive coordinator who has really done amazing things with the talent available to him.  They struggled against Northwestern's explosive offense in the first half, but then they made adjustments and did not allow Northwestern to score a single point in the second half.  That's pretty impressive.  So the Spartans' offense will have it's work cut out for it.   

Some Things to Watch for
- UM's secondary is solid, but I think that MSU's receivers are more talented and should be able to get open most of the game.  If Cousins gets time to throw, he should be able to find receivers to throw to.

- Will Cousins have time to throw?  I expect MSU's offensive line to struggle again.  While UM does not have a dominant defensive line, their defensive coordinator knows how to disguise blitzes.  I suspect that MSU's young line will struggle to deal with these blitzes, and consequently, Cousins is going to be pressured quite a bit.

- How will Cousins deal with the pressure?  As many Spartan commentators have noted (myself included), the Spartans' season really hinges on Cousins.  Actually, in my view, Cousins doesn't have to do that much.  He doesn't have to win the Heisman trophy, he just has to avoid really bad decisions and mistakes.  I can forgive inaccuracy (which he has often suffered from this season) because, frankly, there are probably only a handful of quarterbacks in college that have great accuracy, but turnovers are something that a fifth-year senior should be able to get under control.  As long as Cousins shows decent accuracy and protects the ball, the Spartans will have success moving the ball and should generate enough offense to win this game.

- Cousins doesn't have to be a world-beater because the Spartans should be able to run the ball effectively.  The Spartan O-line may struggle in pass protection, but they should match up rather well against UM's run defense.  The MSU O-line actually performed quite well against an OSU defense that is more talented than UM's defense.  UM's defense actually struggled quite a bit against Notre Dame's running game and I think MSU's running game actually matches up even better against UM's run defense - particularly because UM is kind of undersized along the D-line.

Prediction for the offense and final score
The Spartans should be able to score at least as many points as Northwestern did against Michigan, about 24 points.  UM's defense gives up a lot of points in the first quarter, so MSU should look to score most of their points early in the game.  If MSU scores around 24 points, I think that will be enough to win the game.  As I said in my previous post, I think the Spartan defense should be able to contain the UM offense.  MSU's defense was solid against Notre Dame's better offense.

So, MSU should win their fourth game in a row over Michigan -- as long as the special teams don't give up points; or heaven forbid, the offense gives up points; or even worse, the coaches leave points on the field by getting cute with the trick plays.

Final score: MSU 24 - UM 17.