Can MSU Defeat Wisconsin? Yes, If They Follow the 30-30 Plan

After a 5-1 start to the season, we are now upon what's sure to be MSU's toughest game of the season.  This Saturday they are facing a Wisconsin juggernaut that appears to have no weaknesses.  The Spartans are heavy underdogs, and why wouldn't they be?  Wisconsin is undefeated and ranked number 4 in the country; their offense is averaging 50.2 points a game, while their defense is allowing only 9.7; they are loaded with talented players, including Russell Wilson, who could go on to win the Heisman Trophy.   So MSU must stand no chance, right?  Well....

No doubt this will be a tough game, but there are several reasons to believe that MSU can pull out the victory.  First of all, history is on the Spartans' side.  Wisconsin has lost three in a row in East Lansing.  This is Wisconsin's best team, perhaps ever, so I don't expect them to be intimidated by that history.  But perhaps if MSU takes an early lead, the history may cause them to panic a little more than they otherwise would.

Second, Wisconsin has faced a relatively weak schedule so far.  The only top 25 opponent they have faced was Nebraska, who they did blow out (48-17) but who also has not looked particularly impressive.  Apart from Nebraska, they have blown out UNLV, Oregon State, Northern Illinois, South Dakota, and Indiana.

Third, MSU's last two games are the stuff of elite teams.  The Spartans looked impressive against OSU and Michigan.  We know the defense looked elite, but perhaps more importantly, the offense looked good in both of those games, against good defenses.  Yes, we know that Cousins made mistakes in the OSU game that cost the Spartans several points.  But other than that, the offense has moved the ball effectively, thanks in large part to the surprising play of the O-line (the unit that was supposed to be MSU's biggest weakness).  Make no mistake about it, this is a very good Spartan team that has a chance to claim greatness this weekend.

Here's how they could do it.  I call it the 30-30 plan.  In sum, the Spartan defense must hold Wisconsin's offense to under 30 points, and the Spartan offense must score approximately 30 points.

The Spartans will not be able to completely shut down the Wisconsin offense.  This is a well-balanced offense with a strong running game and a strong passing game.  Wisconsin will get its points, but the goal is to hold them down enough to give the offense a chance to win the game. Wisconsin is averaging 50 points a game, but to some extent this is the result of the weak defenses it has faced -- even the Nebraska defense they faced is not ranked in the top 50.  A strong defense like the Spartans' defense should succeed in slowing down the Wisconsin offense.  They won't keep Wisconsin under 20 points (if they could, then they are indeed elite), but if they hold Wisconsin to under 30 points, they will give the offense the chance to win the game.  This is not only a reasonable goal to set, but I am fully expecting the Spartan defense to succeed in keeping Wisconsin under 30.   

That means, it's up to the offense to win this game.  This is the key to the game, in my mind.  The MSU offense must find a way to score approximately 30 points against a pretty good Wisconsin defense.  Wisconsin's defense is ranked 3rd in the country, in terms of total defense.  However, the best offense they have played is probably Nebraska's -- which is too dependent on Taylor Martinez.  So their defense is probably not as good as their ranking suggests, but it's probably pretty good, nonetheless.  Meanwhile, I think the Spartan offense is starting to get on track.  Against Michigan, Cousins played well, the O-line played well, and the Running game came alive.  The receivers, however, underperformed. 

So that's what it comes down to.  The MSU offense must play a complete game.  Cousins must play well again, the O-line must play well again, the running backs must play well again, and the receivers must step up.  If the MSU offense fires on all cylinders, they will get 28-30 points, and that will be enough to win.  If any part of the offense underperforms, they will be held to approximately 20 points and Wisconsin will get the East Lansing monkey off its back.

Final prediction: MSU's offense is getting better and better, so I think they will put it all together for this game.  Final score: MSU 30 - Wisconsin 27