The Spartans won! Yay. But there is a lot to be concerned about. Here is a quick list of thoughts about tonight's game:
- Boise is impressive and many of the problems the Spartans had tonight can be attributed to Boise's quality. I would not want to face Boise next year. They are a fundamentally sound and intelligent program. MSU caught them at just the right time.
The offense
- Obviously, the passing game is the biggest liability at this point. Maxwell really struggled with his accuracy, his touch, and most dangerously, his decision making. MSU is going to have to play Tressel ball this year (meaning play good defense, protect the ball, get good field position, etc.), but it won't work if your quarterback is making costly mistakes. I'm hoping part of the problem for Maxwell was that Boise uses complex defensive schemes -- schemes that he won't see the rest of the season. But Maxwell did blow a few, regardless of the scheme. So he's going to have to improve.
- The receivers didn't help. You had guys killing drives with turnovers and dropped passes. And while we saw Boise's receivers getting separation against MSU's elite cornerbacks, we didn't see MSU's receivers getting much separation from Boise's cornerbacks. Hopefully, it was just first-game jitters. Otherwise, the passing game is all Dion Sims -- who was huge tonight -- and not much else.
- The offensive line does not look much better than last year. Maybe it's just Boise's line, but Boise was putting a lot of pressure on Maxwell with just 4 or 5 guys. And the O-line struggled to open holes for the running backs. And they had several penalties called against them. This could mean trouble when MSU plays teams with strong D-lines, particularly OSU. I hope the O-line's troubles were just the result of opening-night jitters and Boise's complex defense. Otherwise, Dantonio's best O-line ever could be insufficient against the tough schedule they face this year.
- LeVeon Bell is a legitimate Heisman candidate. Over 200 yards rushing and 2 touchdowns -- could've had 3 at the end. He will be most of MSU's offense this year, like Javon Ringer in his senior year.
The defense
- The defense came to the rescue again. They only allowed 2 field goals, as a result of the bad field position the offense gave them. I was impressed with how well the defense handled Boise's offensive creativity.
- We miss Worthy. MSU's defensive tackles were not nearly as disruptive as Worthy was last year.
- Boise's plan to neutralize MSU's front four worked. MSU's front four stopped the run cold, but they could not generate much pressure against the pass.
- MSU's cornerbacks struggled more than I expected. I don't know what Boise feeds their receivers or what they teach them, but they really burned Adams and Dennard on several occasions. In fact, Dennard was lucky not to be flagged for a second pass-interference call that could have changed the game. Again, I hope this was just an opening-night/Boise thing, but these guys are supposed to be elite corners, so they need to step it up.
Special teams
- They did well. Conroy's missed field goal was the only concern. Otherwise, Hill did an excellent job of returning, and the coverage teams didn't allow any huge returns.
Coaching
- I hate to say it, but I do think Boise's coaching looked superior. They just couldn't overcome MSU's advantages in talent and home field. MSU's coaches are excellent, but I found myself frustrated at some of the things they were doing. Like when they ended the first half with a long pass that was intercepted. At that point, they should have concentrated on getting the 3 points to tie the game. I was also bothered by their inability to recognize that this was a Tressel-ball game. They needed to understand that points were going to be hard to come by and yet they took some risks that cost them. The double-reverse, for example, was a bad call. It cost them 10 yards at a time when they were pounding the ball into field goal range. Boise's coaches seemed to understand the situation better.
- You could also see Boise's coaching superiority in the training of their players. Boise's players are fundamentally sound: they don't make many mistakes, they don't commit many penalties, they tackle very well. MSU looked pretty sloppy for most of the game.
Upshot
- This was actually a more impressive victory for MSU than most people probably realize. Boise is a great team that is nearly unbeatable in big games in which they have time to prepare for the opponent (i.e., openers and bowl games). They will also go on to do very well this year. Many of MSU's problems today can be attributed to Boise's quality, and that's why I think we'll see the Spartans improve their performance dramatically next week. The one area that probably won't improve that fast is the receivers. They played poorly today, and not just because Boise made them look bad.
- Like I said in the beginning, I would not want to face Boise next year. They will be really good.
Friday, August 31, 2012
Thursday, August 30, 2012
Recruiting 2014: Drake Harris
Well, recruiting is happening earlier and earlier -- might as well accept that. At least it's starting to look like the class of 2014 will be special. MSU already has commits from 2 excellent Michigan prospects, and they look to have a great chance with some of the nation's top recruits.
With that, let's take a look at MSU's first commit for 2014. Wide Receiver Drake Harris committed back in June. Harris is not currently rated by any of the recruiting services -- since he's only a junior! -- but he is widely regarded as the top wide receiver in the state, for his class. He's also considered a pretty good recruit for basketball. It appears that Tom Izzo was involved in his recruitment and that he may get to be a two-sport athlete in college.
Harris is a large target (6' 4"), but there's not much info yet on his athleticism. Fortunately, there is some video of his sophomore year.
Harris does not look all that explosive (as a sophomore!) but his long legs cover a lot of ground. He seems to easily separate from defenders, both when he is running a route and after he's caught the ball. He also seems to have pretty good hands and can go up to win the ball in the air.
Upshot: It's hard to evaluate sophomores. In my mind it's a little too early to be looking at guys (at least, for bloggers to be looking at guys), especially because they won't be playing for MSU for at least 2 years and possibly 3 if he has to redshirt. Still, Harris will be one of the top 5 players in the state for his class, and that represents a huge get for the Spartans. If the Spartans can add Thaddeus Snodgrass (the top receiver from Ohio) to this class, then the makings of elite class are there. That kind of receiving talent will certainly attract a top quarterback.
With that, let's take a look at MSU's first commit for 2014. Wide Receiver Drake Harris committed back in June. Harris is not currently rated by any of the recruiting services -- since he's only a junior! -- but he is widely regarded as the top wide receiver in the state, for his class. He's also considered a pretty good recruit for basketball. It appears that Tom Izzo was involved in his recruitment and that he may get to be a two-sport athlete in college.
Harris is a large target (6' 4"), but there's not much info yet on his athleticism. Fortunately, there is some video of his sophomore year.
Harris does not look all that explosive (as a sophomore!) but his long legs cover a lot of ground. He seems to easily separate from defenders, both when he is running a route and after he's caught the ball. He also seems to have pretty good hands and can go up to win the ball in the air.
Upshot: It's hard to evaluate sophomores. In my mind it's a little too early to be looking at guys (at least, for bloggers to be looking at guys), especially because they won't be playing for MSU for at least 2 years and possibly 3 if he has to redshirt. Still, Harris will be one of the top 5 players in the state for his class, and that represents a huge get for the Spartans. If the Spartans can add Thaddeus Snodgrass (the top receiver from Ohio) to this class, then the makings of elite class are there. That kind of receiving talent will certainly attract a top quarterback.
Wednesday, August 29, 2012
Preview of Boise Game
We're here! At long last, the season is about to begin. First up: Boise State. This is the toughest opener MSU has faced since . . . since I can remember.
Folks, my nervousness meter is through the roof. Boise is a giant-slayer, Boise lives for these games. They haven't lost to a highly ranked opponent since . . . since I can remember.
Sure, they lost 6 players to the NFL draft, including two first rounders. And that doesn't include their record-setting quarterback, Kellen Moore, who was picked up by the Lions in free agency. But Boise produces NFL-level talent, every year -- excellent players like Titus Young. Look, MSU was able to succeed last year in large part because the class of 2010 made massive contributions. That's a bunch of redshirt freshmen helping the Spartans win 11 games. If MSU can do that, then Boise, which is a more established program at this point, can reload. So I don't expect much of a drop-off in talent. Maybe a little.
Boise's coaches are what make me the most nervous. In most football games I watch there's usually a point where I notice coaches making mistakes -- even Dantonio (like when he called for the punt block against Wisconsin or when he went for the fake field goal against Notre Dame, when everyone was expecting it). Not that I watch a lot of Boise games, but I don't recall seeing them make big mistakes. On the contrary, I tend to be impressed by their cleverness. At the very least, Boise's coaching is competent (which is more than you can say for a lot of programs), at their best they can seem like geniuses.
MSU's talent should be superior (more stars and more experience) and MSU also has excellent coaching, so if Boise pulls this one out, I think it will be a strong indicator of how good Boise's program actually is. If Boise pulls this one out, then they have earned the right to be considered a top-5 program. They already get a lot of respect, but this one would convince me that they could probably beat any team in the country, especially in an opener or in a bowl game.
Anyway, I expect MSU's defense to keep Boise's scoring relatively low -- unless Petersen comes out with insane plays that totally befuddle the MSU defense. And I expect MSU's offense to do OK -- unless Boise's schemes just confuse the heck out of Maxwell and the O-line. MSU's running game should do well while Maxwell and the passing game turn out to be surprisingly good.
Final score: MSU 23 Boise State 17
Folks, my nervousness meter is through the roof. Boise is a giant-slayer, Boise lives for these games. They haven't lost to a highly ranked opponent since . . . since I can remember.
Sure, they lost 6 players to the NFL draft, including two first rounders. And that doesn't include their record-setting quarterback, Kellen Moore, who was picked up by the Lions in free agency. But Boise produces NFL-level talent, every year -- excellent players like Titus Young. Look, MSU was able to succeed last year in large part because the class of 2010 made massive contributions. That's a bunch of redshirt freshmen helping the Spartans win 11 games. If MSU can do that, then Boise, which is a more established program at this point, can reload. So I don't expect much of a drop-off in talent. Maybe a little.
Boise's coaches are what make me the most nervous. In most football games I watch there's usually a point where I notice coaches making mistakes -- even Dantonio (like when he called for the punt block against Wisconsin or when he went for the fake field goal against Notre Dame, when everyone was expecting it). Not that I watch a lot of Boise games, but I don't recall seeing them make big mistakes. On the contrary, I tend to be impressed by their cleverness. At the very least, Boise's coaching is competent (which is more than you can say for a lot of programs), at their best they can seem like geniuses.
MSU's talent should be superior (more stars and more experience) and MSU also has excellent coaching, so if Boise pulls this one out, I think it will be a strong indicator of how good Boise's program actually is. If Boise pulls this one out, then they have earned the right to be considered a top-5 program. They already get a lot of respect, but this one would convince me that they could probably beat any team in the country, especially in an opener or in a bowl game.
Anyway, I expect MSU's defense to keep Boise's scoring relatively low -- unless Petersen comes out with insane plays that totally befuddle the MSU defense. And I expect MSU's offense to do OK -- unless Boise's schemes just confuse the heck out of Maxwell and the O-line. MSU's running game should do well while Maxwell and the passing game turn out to be surprisingly good.
Final score: MSU 23 Boise State 17
Monday, August 27, 2012
Prediction for 2012: Spartans Go 12-2
OK, time to predict how MSU will do this season. This task is fraught with danger, since there are always unforeseen factors that can work for or against the Spartans (e.g, injuries, weather, the emergence of a superstar, good/bad calls by referees, etc., etc.). The way I like to think about things, therefore, is in terms of chance or probabilities. As you'll notice below, I think the probabilities are on the Spartans' side this year, but that doesn't guarantee that they'll win the games they're supposed to win.
08/31/12 vs. Boise State
The Spartans have major advantages in terms of experience, but Boise State is always always dangerous. If these teams played 10 times, the Spartans would win 7 of them.
09/08/12 at Central Michigan
Central Michigan has been down a few years and I don't expect them to be much better this year. They will likely be tougher than last year, especially because they are playing at home. But MSU would beat them 9 out of 10 times -- the only way the Spartans lose is if they show up unfocused.
09/15/12 vs. Notre Dame
Notre Dame is always dangerous because of the incredible talent they can recruit. However, they won't match up as well with the Spartans this year as they did last year. Michael Floyd is gone and so is Aaron Lynch (who the Spartan O-line absolutely could not stop). MSU would beat them 7 out of 10 times.
09/22/12 vs. Eastern Michigan
Eastern Michigan has improved under former Wolverine defensive coordinator Ron English. This is a dangerous game if the Spartans take them lightly. If MSU is focused, they should win comfortably. MSU would win 9 out of 10 times.
09/29/12 vs. Ohio State
Ohio State will be better than last year, but they will need another year before they get back to elite status. The Spartans are also at home. So MSU wins this one 6 out of 10 times.
10/06/12 at Indiana
Indiana will likely be among the worst 3 teams in the B1G this year, so MSU wins this one 8 out of 10 times.
10/13/12 vs. Iowa
Iowa will probably be about as good as they were last year. They will have a senior quarterback, so that adds to their "dangerousness." They are also playing in Spartan Stadium. So MSU would win 7 out of 10 times.
10/20/12 at Michigan
MSU matches up very well with Michigan: MSU's elite secondary will shut down UM's average receivers, MSU's elite D-line will match up well against a thin UM O-line, and MSU's O-line should do well against a weakened UM D-line. They are playing in Ann Arbor, so that makes the game a little tougher. MSU would win 7 out of 10 times.
10/27/12 at Wisconsin
This will be MSU's toughest game of the season. It's tough to win in Madison. On the other hand, Russell Wilson is gone and Danny O'Brien won't be quite as good (though he should be pretty good). Wisconsin also lost a ton of coaching talent, particularly on the offensive side of the ball. This game is as close to a coin flip as there is on the schedule, but MSU would win 5.5 out of 10 times.
11/03/12 vs. Nebraska
Nebraska has MSU's number, but this is the best MSU team in a long time and they are playing in East Lansing. MSU wins 7 out of 10 times.
11/17/12 vs. Northwestern
Northwestern is always dangerous, especially when taken lightly. Still, the dangerous Dan Persa is gone, so MSU wins 8 out 10 times.
11/24/12 at Minnesota
Minnesota almost beat MSU last year, and Jerry Kill seems like a solid coach. This game will be tougher than most people think, but a focused MSU squad can win comfortably. MSU would win 8 out of 10 times.
I know it makes me look like a Spartan slappy, but I'm going to go with the probabilities I just laid out and predict that the Spartans win 11 or 12 games in the regular season. If they lose one, it will be to Wisconsin, who they will likely meet again in the B1G championship. This time, the Spartans will win the B1G championship, because the probabilities of victory over Wisconsin increase to 6 in 10 on a neutral site. Of course, if they get to 13-0 or 12-1, then we're looking at a possibility of a national championship. If they get to the national championship game and face a top team like Alabama, their chances of winning that game are about 4 in 10. I don't think MSU is quite developed enough this year to beat one of the top 3 teams in the country. As I've written before, I think 2013 is MSU's year. But then, I've been wrong about many things, so maybe 2012 will be their year! Woohoohoo!
Final record: 12-2
08/31/12 vs. Boise State
The Spartans have major advantages in terms of experience, but Boise State is always always dangerous. If these teams played 10 times, the Spartans would win 7 of them.
09/08/12 at Central Michigan
Central Michigan has been down a few years and I don't expect them to be much better this year. They will likely be tougher than last year, especially because they are playing at home. But MSU would beat them 9 out of 10 times -- the only way the Spartans lose is if they show up unfocused.
09/15/12 vs. Notre Dame
Notre Dame is always dangerous because of the incredible talent they can recruit. However, they won't match up as well with the Spartans this year as they did last year. Michael Floyd is gone and so is Aaron Lynch (who the Spartan O-line absolutely could not stop). MSU would beat them 7 out of 10 times.
09/22/12 vs. Eastern Michigan
Eastern Michigan has improved under former Wolverine defensive coordinator Ron English. This is a dangerous game if the Spartans take them lightly. If MSU is focused, they should win comfortably. MSU would win 9 out of 10 times.
09/29/12 vs. Ohio State
Ohio State will be better than last year, but they will need another year before they get back to elite status. The Spartans are also at home. So MSU wins this one 6 out of 10 times.
10/06/12 at Indiana
Indiana will likely be among the worst 3 teams in the B1G this year, so MSU wins this one 8 out of 10 times.
10/13/12 vs. Iowa
Iowa will probably be about as good as they were last year. They will have a senior quarterback, so that adds to their "dangerousness." They are also playing in Spartan Stadium. So MSU would win 7 out of 10 times.
10/20/12 at Michigan
MSU matches up very well with Michigan: MSU's elite secondary will shut down UM's average receivers, MSU's elite D-line will match up well against a thin UM O-line, and MSU's O-line should do well against a weakened UM D-line. They are playing in Ann Arbor, so that makes the game a little tougher. MSU would win 7 out of 10 times.
10/27/12 at Wisconsin
This will be MSU's toughest game of the season. It's tough to win in Madison. On the other hand, Russell Wilson is gone and Danny O'Brien won't be quite as good (though he should be pretty good). Wisconsin also lost a ton of coaching talent, particularly on the offensive side of the ball. This game is as close to a coin flip as there is on the schedule, but MSU would win 5.5 out of 10 times.
11/03/12 vs. Nebraska
Nebraska has MSU's number, but this is the best MSU team in a long time and they are playing in East Lansing. MSU wins 7 out of 10 times.
11/17/12 vs. Northwestern
Northwestern is always dangerous, especially when taken lightly. Still, the dangerous Dan Persa is gone, so MSU wins 8 out 10 times.
11/24/12 at Minnesota
Minnesota almost beat MSU last year, and Jerry Kill seems like a solid coach. This game will be tougher than most people think, but a focused MSU squad can win comfortably. MSU would win 8 out of 10 times.
I know it makes me look like a Spartan slappy, but I'm going to go with the probabilities I just laid out and predict that the Spartans win 11 or 12 games in the regular season. If they lose one, it will be to Wisconsin, who they will likely meet again in the B1G championship. This time, the Spartans will win the B1G championship, because the probabilities of victory over Wisconsin increase to 6 in 10 on a neutral site. Of course, if they get to 13-0 or 12-1, then we're looking at a possibility of a national championship. If they get to the national championship game and face a top team like Alabama, their chances of winning that game are about 4 in 10. I don't think MSU is quite developed enough this year to beat one of the top 3 teams in the country. As I've written before, I think 2013 is MSU's year. But then, I've been wrong about many things, so maybe 2012 will be their year! Woohoohoo!
Final record: 12-2
Recruiting 2013: Dennis Finley
The Spartans now have their 13th verbal commitment in the form of Michigan Offensive Tackle Dennis Finley.
Finley is a 3-star recruit to all but ESPN, which gives him 4 stars. He had a solid list of offers from places like Ohio State, Wisconsin, Illinois, and Cincinnati.
Finley is a huge guy (6' 7" and between 280 to 300 lbs.), but there is little statistical evidence on his athleticism. So let's turn to his video.
Finley does look massive and strong. He is able to use those assets to stop defensive ends cold in their tracks. He also flashes some mobility in some of the pulling plays. The one concern is that he does look just a bit slow, and that could be a problem when facing fast defensive ends. We'll have to see if he can improve his technique and mobility in his senior year.
Upshot: This is a huge get for the Spartans, first of all, because Finley is a good prospect. He needs some work, but the Spartans have several guys ahead of him, anyway. So he'll have plenty of time to develop. Of course, the other significant thing about Finley's commitment is that he comes from Cass Tech high school. As many of you know, Cass Tech cranks out several top-end recruits every year, but most of them end up at UM -- no surprise since their head coach is former UM player Thomas Wilcher. Finley's commitment hopefully represents an inroad for MSU into talent-rich Cass Tech.
Finley may be the only O-lineman the Spartans take in this class, though they would likely still take a guy like Texas guard Caleb Benenoch. They are relatively loaded at O-line and they are probably down to three scholarships, now. So my guess is that they go for a defensive tackle, a safety, and best player available (e.g., Benenoch, Montravius Adams, Robert Foster, or perhaps Ruben Dunbar).
Finley is a 3-star recruit to all but ESPN, which gives him 4 stars. He had a solid list of offers from places like Ohio State, Wisconsin, Illinois, and Cincinnati.
Finley is a huge guy (6' 7" and between 280 to 300 lbs.), but there is little statistical evidence on his athleticism. So let's turn to his video.
Finley does look massive and strong. He is able to use those assets to stop defensive ends cold in their tracks. He also flashes some mobility in some of the pulling plays. The one concern is that he does look just a bit slow, and that could be a problem when facing fast defensive ends. We'll have to see if he can improve his technique and mobility in his senior year.
Upshot: This is a huge get for the Spartans, first of all, because Finley is a good prospect. He needs some work, but the Spartans have several guys ahead of him, anyway. So he'll have plenty of time to develop. Of course, the other significant thing about Finley's commitment is that he comes from Cass Tech high school. As many of you know, Cass Tech cranks out several top-end recruits every year, but most of them end up at UM -- no surprise since their head coach is former UM player Thomas Wilcher. Finley's commitment hopefully represents an inroad for MSU into talent-rich Cass Tech.
Finley may be the only O-lineman the Spartans take in this class, though they would likely still take a guy like Texas guard Caleb Benenoch. They are relatively loaded at O-line and they are probably down to three scholarships, now. So my guess is that they go for a defensive tackle, a safety, and best player available (e.g., Benenoch, Montravius Adams, Robert Foster, or perhaps Ruben Dunbar).
Saturday, August 25, 2012
Recruiting 2013: Demetrius Cooper
All caught up with the 2013 commits!
Today, the Spartans received their 12th commitment from Illinois defensive end Demetrius Cooper.
Cooper has been an under-the-radar guy up to this point. He has only been evaluated by Scout and 247, who give him 3 stars. He didn't get much attention until the Spartans offered him at one of their camps, and then suddenly he received offers from places like Notre Dame and Purdue.
Cooper has great height for a defensive end (6' 5") but he will need to add a lot of weight (he is listed as somewhere between 205 and 225 lbs.) before he sees the field. He is supposed to be extremely athletic, but there is no reported time for his 40. We can't evaluate his athleticism through highlights because none seem to be available at this point.
Upshot: We're going to have to be patient until Cooper's senior year highlights come out, but at least we know that the Spartan coaches wanted him "bad." Word had it that he was unblockable at the Spartan camp he attended. As for the rest of the class, Cooper's commitment could make for some awkwardness. Illinois defensive end Ruben Dunbar was heavily favoring the Spartans and I'm not sure they have room for him anymore. I think they want to take one more defensive tackle, an offensive tackle, and a safety. I don't know, maybe if they can take 16, they'll take Dunbar as well. We'll have to see how the coaches handle this.
Today, the Spartans received their 12th commitment from Illinois defensive end Demetrius Cooper.
Cooper has been an under-the-radar guy up to this point. He has only been evaluated by Scout and 247, who give him 3 stars. He didn't get much attention until the Spartans offered him at one of their camps, and then suddenly he received offers from places like Notre Dame and Purdue.
Cooper has great height for a defensive end (6' 5") but he will need to add a lot of weight (he is listed as somewhere between 205 and 225 lbs.) before he sees the field. He is supposed to be extremely athletic, but there is no reported time for his 40. We can't evaluate his athleticism through highlights because none seem to be available at this point.
Upshot: We're going to have to be patient until Cooper's senior year highlights come out, but at least we know that the Spartan coaches wanted him "bad." Word had it that he was unblockable at the Spartan camp he attended. As for the rest of the class, Cooper's commitment could make for some awkwardness. Illinois defensive end Ruben Dunbar was heavily favoring the Spartans and I'm not sure they have room for him anymore. I think they want to take one more defensive tackle, an offensive tackle, and a safety. I don't know, maybe if they can take 16, they'll take Dunbar as well. We'll have to see how the coaches handle this.
Recruiting 2013: Devyn Salmon
Almost caught up on the 2013 commits.
Back in July, the Spartans received a commitment from their Florida defensive tackle Devyn Salmon. Salmon is considered a 3-star recruit by every site except 247, which gives him 2 stars. His top offers came from Cincinnati and West Virginia.
Salmon is on the short side for a defensive tackle (6' 1"), but he still packs a lot of weight (around 285 lbs.). Only ESPN reports a 40 time (5.24), which is reasonable for a guy that big. Let's see what his video can tell us:
There's not much in the way of game film, but we can see above that Salmon can dominate, at least against lower level O-line talent. Below we see him struggle against more elite talent:
Upshot: I'll have to wait until senior year highlights come to make a full evaluation, but for now I'd say that Salmon is a good prospect because he has a natural leverage advantage (he's shorter, obviously) and he has excellent athleticism. He will, however, need to improve his technique and get much stronger before he can take on more elite O-linemen. Salmon is likely one of only two defensive tackles the Spartans will take, though they will always make room for a third DT if it is someone like Montravius Adams (the number one DT in the country).
Back in July, the Spartans received a commitment from their Florida defensive tackle Devyn Salmon. Salmon is considered a 3-star recruit by every site except 247, which gives him 2 stars. His top offers came from Cincinnati and West Virginia.
Salmon is on the short side for a defensive tackle (6' 1"), but he still packs a lot of weight (around 285 lbs.). Only ESPN reports a 40 time (5.24), which is reasonable for a guy that big. Let's see what his video can tell us:
There's not much in the way of game film, but we can see above that Salmon can dominate, at least against lower level O-line talent. Below we see him struggle against more elite talent:
Upshot: I'll have to wait until senior year highlights come to make a full evaluation, but for now I'd say that Salmon is a good prospect because he has a natural leverage advantage (he's shorter, obviously) and he has excellent athleticism. He will, however, need to improve his technique and get much stronger before he can take on more elite O-linemen. Salmon is likely one of only two defensive tackles the Spartans will take, though they will always make room for a third DT if it is someone like Montravius Adams (the number one DT in the country).
Recruiting 2013: Jay Harris
Back in June the Spartans received a commitment from Pennsylvania wide receiver Jay Harris.
Harris is a considered a 3-star recruit by all the recruiting sites, except Rivals, which gives him 2 stars. His only other scholarship offers came from Old Dominion and Temple.
Harris is a smaller receiver (5' 11" and 175 lbs). Info on his athleticism is limited. ESPN gives Harris a 40 time of 4.72, while 247 gives him a 4.6. That's a little slow for a small receiver, but perhaps his video tells us something different:
Well, the video seems to confirm Harris' speed; he does not appear to be a 4.4 kind of guy. But he is still an intriguing prospect. He's kind of a wide receiver in a running back's body. He has running back toughness and running back moves, both of which help him get open and allow him to run well, after the catch. He kind of reminds me of Macgarrett Kings, who was listed as a running back by Scout.
Upshot: I'm looking forward to seeing how Harris progresses in his senior year. If I recall correctly, Kings ended up being much faster in his senior highlights than in his junior highlights, and I wouldn't be surprised if the same happens with Harris. Otherwise, the Spartans should be finished taking wide receivers in this class, unless a guy like Robert Foster (the number 2 receiver in the nation) decides to commit.
Harris is a considered a 3-star recruit by all the recruiting sites, except Rivals, which gives him 2 stars. His only other scholarship offers came from Old Dominion and Temple.
Harris is a smaller receiver (5' 11" and 175 lbs). Info on his athleticism is limited. ESPN gives Harris a 40 time of 4.72, while 247 gives him a 4.6. That's a little slow for a small receiver, but perhaps his video tells us something different:
Well, the video seems to confirm Harris' speed; he does not appear to be a 4.4 kind of guy. But he is still an intriguing prospect. He's kind of a wide receiver in a running back's body. He has running back toughness and running back moves, both of which help him get open and allow him to run well, after the catch. He kind of reminds me of Macgarrett Kings, who was listed as a running back by Scout.
Upshot: I'm looking forward to seeing how Harris progresses in his senior year. If I recall correctly, Kings ended up being much faster in his senior highlights than in his junior highlights, and I wouldn't be surprised if the same happens with Harris. Otherwise, the Spartans should be finished taking wide receivers in this class, unless a guy like Robert Foster (the number 2 receiver in the nation) decides to commit.
Friday, August 24, 2012
What Outback Bowl Might Tell Us About MSU This Year
Just re-watched the Outback Bowl (here) because I'm starved for football and because I wanted to see if that game would yield any insights about this season. Here are a few thoughts I came away with:
The offense struggled most of the game
- The O-line really struggled, and that really hurt the running game.
- The O-line's struggles also meant the passing game struggled. Cousins was pressured a lot, which disrupted his timing most of the game. The receivers also struggled to get open for most of the game.
- The offense was very dependent on big plays from its playmakers. Three guys stepped up big, in my mind: LeVeon Bell (dragged tacklers when there wasn't much running room), Brian Linthicum (made several tough catches), and Keith Nichol (made a few tough catches in the fourth quarter).
The Spartan defense kept them in the game
- They allowed only 18 points in regular time, and 11 of those points were the result of the bad field position handed them by the offense and special teams. They also scored a touchdown on Darqueze Dennard's interception and gave the offense excellent field position on a few occasions.
- The front seven played very well. MSU stuffed Georgia's running game most of the day and they put quite a bit of pressure on Georgia's quarterback (Aaron Murray).
- The defense did give up some big plays, however. Georgia burned the Spartan secondary on some long passes. The Spartan secondary (including Johnny Adams and Trenton Robinson) struggled against Georgia's top receiver (Tavarres King). The Spartan defense and special teams struggled against Georgia's playmaker Brandon Boykin.
Insights into this season
- If Maxwell and the passing game struggle this season, then the Outback Bowl is a good indicator of what this season will be like. The offense will sputter against good defenses, and the Spartan defense will have to keep games close. But I actually think the MSU offense will be better this year for three reasons. First, the O-line will be considerably better than last year. That will improve the running and passing game. Second, the offense will be in its second year under offensive coordinator Dan Roushar. Both the players and Roushar should be more comfortable. I also think that Roushar will have more players that fit better with some of the things he likes to do (like running outside the tackles). Third, MSU could have more explosive playmakers this year than it had last year. I'm particularly hopeful about Dion Sims and Bennie Fowler.
- The Outback Bowl raised one concern for me about the Spartan defense going into this year: they do struggle against elite players (who doesn't? I suppose), especially the secondary. I do think that the Spartan secondary will be better this year than last year, and thus, should match up better against elite receivers. Johnny Adams will be better than ever, and the Outback Bowl has me believing that Darqueze Dennard will be a superstar. Mark my words, if Dennard stays healthy, people will be talking about him as a possible first round draft pick by the end of this season. The Spartans may end up losing their top 3 cornerbacks at the end of this year.
The offense struggled most of the game
- The O-line really struggled, and that really hurt the running game.
- The O-line's struggles also meant the passing game struggled. Cousins was pressured a lot, which disrupted his timing most of the game. The receivers also struggled to get open for most of the game.
- The offense was very dependent on big plays from its playmakers. Three guys stepped up big, in my mind: LeVeon Bell (dragged tacklers when there wasn't much running room), Brian Linthicum (made several tough catches), and Keith Nichol (made a few tough catches in the fourth quarter).
The Spartan defense kept them in the game
- They allowed only 18 points in regular time, and 11 of those points were the result of the bad field position handed them by the offense and special teams. They also scored a touchdown on Darqueze Dennard's interception and gave the offense excellent field position on a few occasions.
- The front seven played very well. MSU stuffed Georgia's running game most of the day and they put quite a bit of pressure on Georgia's quarterback (Aaron Murray).
- The defense did give up some big plays, however. Georgia burned the Spartan secondary on some long passes. The Spartan secondary (including Johnny Adams and Trenton Robinson) struggled against Georgia's top receiver (Tavarres King). The Spartan defense and special teams struggled against Georgia's playmaker Brandon Boykin.
Insights into this season
- If Maxwell and the passing game struggle this season, then the Outback Bowl is a good indicator of what this season will be like. The offense will sputter against good defenses, and the Spartan defense will have to keep games close. But I actually think the MSU offense will be better this year for three reasons. First, the O-line will be considerably better than last year. That will improve the running and passing game. Second, the offense will be in its second year under offensive coordinator Dan Roushar. Both the players and Roushar should be more comfortable. I also think that Roushar will have more players that fit better with some of the things he likes to do (like running outside the tackles). Third, MSU could have more explosive playmakers this year than it had last year. I'm particularly hopeful about Dion Sims and Bennie Fowler.
- The Outback Bowl raised one concern for me about the Spartan defense going into this year: they do struggle against elite players (who doesn't? I suppose), especially the secondary. I do think that the Spartan secondary will be better this year than last year, and thus, should match up better against elite receivers. Johnny Adams will be better than ever, and the Outback Bowl has me believing that Darqueze Dennard will be a superstar. Mark my words, if Dennard stays healthy, people will be talking about him as a possible first round draft pick by the end of this season. The Spartans may end up losing their top 3 cornerbacks at the end of this year.
Thursday, August 23, 2012
Recruiting 2013: Trey Kilgore
Back in June the Spartans received a verbal commitment from Ohio wide receiver Trey Kilgore. Kilgore is a consensus 3-star recruit, with offers from places like Boston College, Cincinnati, and Iowa.
Kilgore has good size (6' 2" and 180 lbs.), but there's little info on his athleticism. So let's turn to his video:
First of all, his video says he runs the 40 in 4.5 seconds. And his performance suggests that's pretty accurate. Kilgore is a very good athlete, often the best on the field. He ran the ball quite a bit as a quarterback, which shows he'll know what to do after the catch. There's not a lot of video of him catching the ball, but the few plays you see show that he runs some good routes and that he can catch the ball.
Upshot: Kilgore could become a more athletic version of Cunningham -- same size, but faster. It remains to be seen if he can develop the same receiving skills as Cunningham (the hands, the route running, the ability to win the ball in the air). But the tools are there.
Kilgore has good size (6' 2" and 180 lbs.), but there's little info on his athleticism. So let's turn to his video:
First of all, his video says he runs the 40 in 4.5 seconds. And his performance suggests that's pretty accurate. Kilgore is a very good athlete, often the best on the field. He ran the ball quite a bit as a quarterback, which shows he'll know what to do after the catch. There's not a lot of video of him catching the ball, but the few plays you see show that he runs some good routes and that he can catch the ball.
Upshot: Kilgore could become a more athletic version of Cunningham -- same size, but faster. It remains to be seen if he can develop the same receiving skills as Cunningham (the hands, the route running, the ability to win the ball in the air). But the tools are there.
Wednesday, August 22, 2012
Recruiting 2013: Dylan Chmura
Back in June the Spartans received a commitment from Wisconsin tight end Dylan Chmura -- the son of Mark Chmura, the former Green Bay Packer.
There is not much info on Chmura at this point. No site had him rated at the time of his commitment, and currently he is only rated by Scout and 247, which give him 2 stars.
Chmura has good height (6' 5") for the position -- same height as his father, apparently. But other than that, there is no info on his athleticism. So let's turn to his video . . . well, there is no video, except his dad talking about him:
According to his dad, Dylan was a major contributor to his high school team (which won the state championship, apparently) as a sophomore and he is further along in his development than his dad at the same age. Other than that, the only other indicator that Dylan is a good recruit is the fact that he impressed the coaches at an MSU camp.
Upshot: It's hard to say much about Chmura at this point. This is certainly one of those occasions where you have to wait until he plays his senior year to find out more about him. At least he comes from NFL stock, and at least the MSU coaches seemed impressed by him. We'll have to be satisfied with that for now.
There is not much info on Chmura at this point. No site had him rated at the time of his commitment, and currently he is only rated by Scout and 247, which give him 2 stars.
Chmura has good height (6' 5") for the position -- same height as his father, apparently. But other than that, there is no info on his athleticism. So let's turn to his video . . . well, there is no video, except his dad talking about him:
According to his dad, Dylan was a major contributor to his high school team (which won the state championship, apparently) as a sophomore and he is further along in his development than his dad at the same age. Other than that, the only other indicator that Dylan is a good recruit is the fact that he impressed the coaches at an MSU camp.
Upshot: It's hard to say much about Chmura at this point. This is certainly one of those occasions where you have to wait until he plays his senior year to find out more about him. At least he comes from NFL stock, and at least the MSU coaches seemed impressed by him. We'll have to be satisfied with that for now.
Tuesday, August 21, 2012
A First Look at Boise State
I was watching the Boise State vs Georgia game (2011) and here's a few things that jump out at me:
- Boise just knows how to win the big games. In the last few years they've beaten Oklahoma, Virginia Tech, Georgia, and TCU. Boise is the kind of opponent that can ruin a confident team's season. Spartan fans should not take them lightly.
- Boise has an impressive program that can reload with the best of them. Boise is a lot like MSU in that they don't get top 20 recruiting classes, but they are still able to develop NFL-level talent. Boise is actually able to do this better than MSU, at this point. They had more players get drafted this year than MSU and their guys were generally taken in earlier rounds. Because Boise is able to develop players so well, I expect them to be strong when they come to Spartan stadium. They lost a lot of talent, no question, but think about it. MSU had a great year last year because they had a bunch of redshirt freshmen step up. If MSU can "reload" with a bunch of second and third-year players, then you can bet Boise can, too.
- Boise can succeed with new players because of it's schemes. They use a spread offense that doesn't allow the defense to rotate players (Georgia's defense was completely worn out by the second half) and they use a lot of creative/trick plays (that kept Georgia's defense on its heels). So their offense will still be tough to stop, even with a new quarterback. Their defense is very physical and athletic, and they like to use complicated defenses that confuse the quarterback.
- Boise has elite coaching. Chris Petersen is one of the best head coaches (at least top 5), and Boise generally has good coordinators. They lost last year's offensive coordinator to Texas, but his replacement will no doubt excel.
- Why MSU has a good chance of beating them: Boise will be good, but they likely won't be as good as they were the last 2 years. If MSU was facing last year's Boise team, I think I would pick Boise to win. But their new starters will probably (hopefully) struggle a bit to pick up all the complexities of the Boise system, especially in the first game of the season. This should give MSU enough of an opening.
Summary: I'm actually more nervous about the Boise game than about almost all the other games on the schedule. Boise has a chip on its shoulder when it comes to the big games. So I expect them to pull out all the stops. They will be tough.
- Boise just knows how to win the big games. In the last few years they've beaten Oklahoma, Virginia Tech, Georgia, and TCU. Boise is the kind of opponent that can ruin a confident team's season. Spartan fans should not take them lightly.
- Boise has an impressive program that can reload with the best of them. Boise is a lot like MSU in that they don't get top 20 recruiting classes, but they are still able to develop NFL-level talent. Boise is actually able to do this better than MSU, at this point. They had more players get drafted this year than MSU and their guys were generally taken in earlier rounds. Because Boise is able to develop players so well, I expect them to be strong when they come to Spartan stadium. They lost a lot of talent, no question, but think about it. MSU had a great year last year because they had a bunch of redshirt freshmen step up. If MSU can "reload" with a bunch of second and third-year players, then you can bet Boise can, too.
- Boise can succeed with new players because of it's schemes. They use a spread offense that doesn't allow the defense to rotate players (Georgia's defense was completely worn out by the second half) and they use a lot of creative/trick plays (that kept Georgia's defense on its heels). So their offense will still be tough to stop, even with a new quarterback. Their defense is very physical and athletic, and they like to use complicated defenses that confuse the quarterback.
- Boise has elite coaching. Chris Petersen is one of the best head coaches (at least top 5), and Boise generally has good coordinators. They lost last year's offensive coordinator to Texas, but his replacement will no doubt excel.
- Why MSU has a good chance of beating them: Boise will be good, but they likely won't be as good as they were the last 2 years. If MSU was facing last year's Boise team, I think I would pick Boise to win. But their new starters will probably (hopefully) struggle a bit to pick up all the complexities of the Boise system, especially in the first game of the season. This should give MSU enough of an opening.
Summary: I'm actually more nervous about the Boise game than about almost all the other games on the schedule. Boise has a chip on its shoulder when it comes to the big games. So I expect them to pull out all the stops. They will be tough.
Monday, August 20, 2012
Recruiting 2013: Kenny Hayes
Update: needless to say, Hayes is not coming to MSU next year. So forget everything below.
Word is out that OSU defensive end Kenny Hayes is transferring to MSU. He won't be eligible to play until the 2013 season, so I'll go ahead and file him under the 2013 recruiting class -- even though he comes from the 2011 class.
Word is out that OSU defensive end Kenny Hayes is transferring to MSU. He won't be eligible to play until the 2013 season, so I'll go ahead and file him under the 2013 recruiting class -- even though he comes from the 2011 class.
Hayes was a consensus 4-star recruit and was considered a top 100 prospect by Rivals, who had him as the number 7 defensive end in the nation. ESPN was the least high on him, ranking him only 27th at his position. Hayes did not have a long list of offers, likely because he committed to OSU very early.
Hayes is big (6' 5" and 285 lbs) and has a good time in the 40 for a defensive lineman (4.8). Let's look at his video:
Well, he looks enormous and powerful. He moves relatively well, but he seems to move more like a defensive tackle than like a defensive end. It looks like he also plays pretty hard, chasing down guys from behind.
Upshot: Hayes is a good pickup, who has elite size and strength. His athleticism is probably not elite for a defensive end, but for a defensive tackle I think it is. That's why I suspect he will end up at defensive tackle, but who knows, maybe he'll be faster and more explosive by 2013. Otherwise, I think the Spartans may be close to wrapping up their recruiting at defensive line for this year. They may still take a guy like Demetrius Cooper (who is more of a speed rusher), but scholarships are starting to dwindle. So the focus now has to be on offensive linemen and perhaps one more guy that's built like a safety (either Delton Williams or Brandon Arnold).
Sunday, August 19, 2012
Recruiting 2013: Darian Hicks
Back in June, the Spartans received a commitment from Ohio cornerback Darian Hicks. Scout, Rivals, and ESPN consider Hicks a 3-star recruit, while 247 gives him 4 stars. His offer list (which includes Boston College, Cincinnati, Illinois, Iowa, Penn State, Pitt, and West Virginia) suggests that he's probably closer to the 4-star rating.
Hicks seems to fit the mold of a Dantonio cornerback: 6 feet tall, 175 lbs (though ESPN and 247 list as 5' 10". ESPN is the only one reporting a time for him in the 40, giving him 4.71. That would be slow for a cornerback. Let's see if his video suggest something different:
Well, he doesn't look as explosive as some other guys, but you can tell that Hicks is a pretty good athlete. He plays several positions, including kick returner, where he is able to outrun guys a few times. On the other hand, you can also see him get caught from behind on the interception return. I'm going to say that he's probably faster than 4.71 in the 40, but he's probably not a 4.4 guy.
I think it's difficult to evaluate cornberbacks in highlight videos because half the time they're not even in the video until the last second when they make a play. So you can't see how they cover guys, or how they position themselves. The main thing you can, though, is that Hicks has good hands (he makes interceptions and plays receiver) and that he is a solid tackler.
Upshot: Hicks looks like a really good pickup. According to rumors, the coaches wanted him pretty badly, and it's nice to see that they were able to get him, considering all the good offers he had. My guess is that he will be a good cornerback for MSU, which is good since Hicks will likely be the only cornerback taken in this class.
Hicks seems to fit the mold of a Dantonio cornerback: 6 feet tall, 175 lbs (though ESPN and 247 list as 5' 10". ESPN is the only one reporting a time for him in the 40, giving him 4.71. That would be slow for a cornerback. Let's see if his video suggest something different:
Well, he doesn't look as explosive as some other guys, but you can tell that Hicks is a pretty good athlete. He plays several positions, including kick returner, where he is able to outrun guys a few times. On the other hand, you can also see him get caught from behind on the interception return. I'm going to say that he's probably faster than 4.71 in the 40, but he's probably not a 4.4 guy.
I think it's difficult to evaluate cornberbacks in highlight videos because half the time they're not even in the video until the last second when they make a play. So you can't see how they cover guys, or how they position themselves. The main thing you can, though, is that Hicks has good hands (he makes interceptions and plays receiver) and that he is a solid tackler.
Upshot: Hicks looks like a really good pickup. According to rumors, the coaches wanted him pretty badly, and it's nice to see that they were able to get him, considering all the good offers he had. My guess is that he will be a good cornerback for MSU, which is good since Hicks will likely be the only cornerback taken in this class.
Friday, August 17, 2012
Recruiting 2013: Damion Terry
Back in April, the Spartans got their quarterback of the 2013 class: Damion Terry from Pennsylvania.
247 and Rivals consider Terry a 3-star recruit, while Scout and ESPN rate him as 4-stars. He had some pretty solid offers -- from Illinois, Duke, and Boston College -- but his early commitment may have diminished his offer list.
Terry is a pretty big quarterback (6' 4" and 210 lbs) and he is supposed to be mobile, though there aren't any numbers on his athleticism. So let's turn to his video:
Terry does look pretty mobile. He's probably faster than all of MSU's quarterbacks, except perhaps Connor Cook, who also runs pretty well. Terry also has strong arm and can launch the ball down the field - with some touch.
Upshot: Terry becomes the third straight mobile quarterback recruited by MSU, so it seems safe to say that Dantonio and the coaches have developed a preference for mobility. Terry has the tools to be an excellent quarterback, but the buzz is that he is pretty raw and will need time to develop. That's OK because MSU will be loaded at quarterback for years to come. So Terry will get his time to develop, but he will also need to make some serious progress, if he is to eventually become the starter. If he succeeds, we probably won't see him take the field until he is a redshirt junior.
247 and Rivals consider Terry a 3-star recruit, while Scout and ESPN rate him as 4-stars. He had some pretty solid offers -- from Illinois, Duke, and Boston College -- but his early commitment may have diminished his offer list.
Terry is a pretty big quarterback (6' 4" and 210 lbs) and he is supposed to be mobile, though there aren't any numbers on his athleticism. So let's turn to his video:
Terry does look pretty mobile. He's probably faster than all of MSU's quarterbacks, except perhaps Connor Cook, who also runs pretty well. Terry also has strong arm and can launch the ball down the field - with some touch.
Upshot: Terry becomes the third straight mobile quarterback recruited by MSU, so it seems safe to say that Dantonio and the coaches have developed a preference for mobility. Terry has the tools to be an excellent quarterback, but the buzz is that he is pretty raw and will need time to develop. That's OK because MSU will be loaded at quarterback for years to come. So Terry will get his time to develop, but he will also need to make some serious progress, if he is to eventually become the starter. If he succeeds, we probably won't see him take the field until he is a redshirt junior.
Wednesday, August 15, 2012
How Much Longer Will Dantonio Coach and Who Might Eventually Replace Him?
Let me preface this post by saying that I hope that 10 years from now it is beyond clear that this post was foolishly premature. I hope beyond hope that Mark Dantonio is still going strong in 2022. But ever since Dantonio suffered a heart attack two years ago, I have been haphazardly wondering about (a) how much longer he might coach, and (b) who might eventually become MSU's next coach. Here are some thoughts on those issues.
If someone put a gun to my head and demanded my best guess on how much longer Mark Dantonio will end up serving as MSU's head football coach, I would nervously hypothesize that he will be here another 5 years - which would give him a total of about 10 years. I would reason that Dantonio's contract runs another 5 years, and he has been guaranteed a position in the athletic department for 2 years, after he retires. And while his contract can be easily extended, Dantonio is already 56 years old and of course he has health concerns. He might extend his contract for another 2 to 3 years, but probably not much beyond that. In the end, I expect that Mark Dantonio will not be one of those coaches that stays on for decades, and that actually might turn out to be a good thing for the program. How often have we seen great coaches undermine what they have built by staying on too long?
That's why I appreciate what Barry Alvarez did in Wisconsin. Alvarez built up a solid program over 16 years and then walked away when he was still doing quite well (Wisconsin went 10-3 in his final season). Alvarez passed the baton to Brett Bielema, who was then able to take Wisconsin to the next level. I think that that's the kind of coaching transition programs should aspire for, and I think MSU is headed for that kind of transition.
Of course, the other critical component of a successful transition is finding the right replacement. Apparently, that's not such an easy thing to do. How many times have we seen successful programs collapse and or stagnate as soon as they lose their star coach? (MSU after Nick Saban, Notre Dame after Lou Holtz, Nebraska after Tom Ozborne, etc.) Since it's such a challenging task, we might as well start thinking about this topic now.
So who has the capacity to at least keep MSU where Dantonio has brought it? One rule to start with is that the program should probably stay away from outsiders who would need to make significant changes to the program. Michigan's experiment with Rich Rodriguez showed us what can happen with that. I actually think Rodriguez is a pretty good coach, so the fact that he struggled convinces me that MSU should not ever attempt such a transition. MSU has a pro-style program, they are winning with a pros-style program, and they can absolutely find replacements that can win with a pro-style program.
The next rule I would suggest is giving guys from the Dantonio coaching tree the first look. Hiring one of Dantonio's guys would ensure that the system that has brought so much success will largely be kept in place. Perhaps the best positioned of Dantonio's guys are going to be those with head coaching experience. And there's only 3 of them: Dan Enos, Don Treadwell, and Pat Narduzi (who will likely become a head coach next year). Let's just go ahead and scratch off Enos, who may not even survive at Central Michigan after this year.
That leaves us Treadwell and Narduzi. Treadwell is my current favorite at this point, mainly because I liked how well he performed when he took over the program, when Dantonio had his heart attack. Treadwell also has a year of coaching experience at U of Miami (Ohio), where he we went 4-8 in his first season. He will need to improve his record rapidly, considering that Miami actually went 10-4 the year before he arrived. Unfortunately, if he becomes too successful at Miami, it's very likely that other big programs will come calling and he'll be unavailable at the time Dantonio retires. So that's where Treadwell stands. He needs to prove himself, but if he does, the timing could be bad.
Narduzi will likely be in a similar situation. If he leaves next year to become a head coach somewhere, he'll have to show that he can be the top guy at just the right time. The right time would be about 4 or 5 years from now. That's more likely to happen if he ends up a program that needs quite a bit of work. A more established program might allow him to succeed too quickly.
Apart from Treadwell and Narduzi, I could see MSU offering the job to whoever happens to be the offensive or defensive coordinator at the time Dantonio retires. Could current offensive coordinator Dan Roushar still be around at that time? I wasn't completely impressed with Roushar's performance last year, but then again, it was his first year as OC. We'll see how he does this year.
My gut tells me that whoever takes over as defensive coordinator when Narduzi leaves may actually end up being in the right place at the right time. That individual will likely be in that position for the next few years, right up until Dantonio approaches retirement. That individual will also have been in the program for close to 10 years. Who might that be? I suspect that, since Dantonio likes to promote guys from within, it will be Mike Tressel, who is currently the linebackers and special teams coach. He seems to have done a pretty good job in those areas, so I suspect he'll be the next defensive coordinator.
Of course, since we're talking about things that could happen at least 5 years into the future, this topic can only be considered speculation. Nonetheless, it's not too early to start thinking about these things. This is one of those posts that you jot up and then revise a few times over the next few years.
If someone put a gun to my head and demanded my best guess on how much longer Mark Dantonio will end up serving as MSU's head football coach, I would nervously hypothesize that he will be here another 5 years - which would give him a total of about 10 years. I would reason that Dantonio's contract runs another 5 years, and he has been guaranteed a position in the athletic department for 2 years, after he retires. And while his contract can be easily extended, Dantonio is already 56 years old and of course he has health concerns. He might extend his contract for another 2 to 3 years, but probably not much beyond that. In the end, I expect that Mark Dantonio will not be one of those coaches that stays on for decades, and that actually might turn out to be a good thing for the program. How often have we seen great coaches undermine what they have built by staying on too long?
That's why I appreciate what Barry Alvarez did in Wisconsin. Alvarez built up a solid program over 16 years and then walked away when he was still doing quite well (Wisconsin went 10-3 in his final season). Alvarez passed the baton to Brett Bielema, who was then able to take Wisconsin to the next level. I think that that's the kind of coaching transition programs should aspire for, and I think MSU is headed for that kind of transition.
Of course, the other critical component of a successful transition is finding the right replacement. Apparently, that's not such an easy thing to do. How many times have we seen successful programs collapse and or stagnate as soon as they lose their star coach? (MSU after Nick Saban, Notre Dame after Lou Holtz, Nebraska after Tom Ozborne, etc.) Since it's such a challenging task, we might as well start thinking about this topic now.
So who has the capacity to at least keep MSU where Dantonio has brought it? One rule to start with is that the program should probably stay away from outsiders who would need to make significant changes to the program. Michigan's experiment with Rich Rodriguez showed us what can happen with that. I actually think Rodriguez is a pretty good coach, so the fact that he struggled convinces me that MSU should not ever attempt such a transition. MSU has a pro-style program, they are winning with a pros-style program, and they can absolutely find replacements that can win with a pro-style program.
The next rule I would suggest is giving guys from the Dantonio coaching tree the first look. Hiring one of Dantonio's guys would ensure that the system that has brought so much success will largely be kept in place. Perhaps the best positioned of Dantonio's guys are going to be those with head coaching experience. And there's only 3 of them: Dan Enos, Don Treadwell, and Pat Narduzi (who will likely become a head coach next year). Let's just go ahead and scratch off Enos, who may not even survive at Central Michigan after this year.
That leaves us Treadwell and Narduzi. Treadwell is my current favorite at this point, mainly because I liked how well he performed when he took over the program, when Dantonio had his heart attack. Treadwell also has a year of coaching experience at U of Miami (Ohio), where he we went 4-8 in his first season. He will need to improve his record rapidly, considering that Miami actually went 10-4 the year before he arrived. Unfortunately, if he becomes too successful at Miami, it's very likely that other big programs will come calling and he'll be unavailable at the time Dantonio retires. So that's where Treadwell stands. He needs to prove himself, but if he does, the timing could be bad.
Narduzi will likely be in a similar situation. If he leaves next year to become a head coach somewhere, he'll have to show that he can be the top guy at just the right time. The right time would be about 4 or 5 years from now. That's more likely to happen if he ends up a program that needs quite a bit of work. A more established program might allow him to succeed too quickly.
Apart from Treadwell and Narduzi, I could see MSU offering the job to whoever happens to be the offensive or defensive coordinator at the time Dantonio retires. Could current offensive coordinator Dan Roushar still be around at that time? I wasn't completely impressed with Roushar's performance last year, but then again, it was his first year as OC. We'll see how he does this year.
My gut tells me that whoever takes over as defensive coordinator when Narduzi leaves may actually end up being in the right place at the right time. That individual will likely be in that position for the next few years, right up until Dantonio approaches retirement. That individual will also have been in the program for close to 10 years. Who might that be? I suspect that, since Dantonio likes to promote guys from within, it will be Mike Tressel, who is currently the linebackers and special teams coach. He seems to have done a pretty good job in those areas, so I suspect he'll be the next defensive coordinator.
Of course, since we're talking about things that could happen at least 5 years into the future, this topic can only be considered speculation. Nonetheless, it's not too early to start thinking about these things. This is one of those posts that you jot up and then revise a few times over the next few years.
Tuesday, August 14, 2012
Recruiting 2013: Shane Jones
Back in April, the Spartans received a verbal commitment from Ohio linebacker Shane Jones. He was the second linebacker taken and likely the last for the class of 2013.
Jones is a 3-star recruit to Scout and 247, but he's viewed as a 4-star by Rivals and ESPN (who has him rated as the top Spartan commit, up to this point). Jones is 6' 1" and 215 lbs, so he's on the smaller side of linebackers, but the Spartan coaches seem to like that height for their linebackers (see roster). There's no stats on his athleticism, so let's turn to his video:
Jones doesn't look particularly fast, but then he's probably about as fast as Max Bullough was in high school - and of course, we all know how Bullough has turned out. He also shows good field awareness (seems to quickly see where the play is going) and strength (he drives back running backs a couple of times). These attributes help him in stopping the run and in dropping back in pass coverage.
Upshot: Jones is a highly regarded prospect and who has earned rave reviews at various football camps, but I personally don't have enough information on him to get too excited. In my experience, guys often look considerably more athletic in their senior year videos, so maybe I'll wait 'til that comes out before I say much more about him.
Jones is a 3-star recruit to Scout and 247, but he's viewed as a 4-star by Rivals and ESPN (who has him rated as the top Spartan commit, up to this point). Jones is 6' 1" and 215 lbs, so he's on the smaller side of linebackers, but the Spartan coaches seem to like that height for their linebackers (see roster). There's no stats on his athleticism, so let's turn to his video:
Upshot: Jones is a highly regarded prospect and who has earned rave reviews at various football camps, but I personally don't have enough information on him to get too excited. In my experience, guys often look considerably more athletic in their senior year videos, so maybe I'll wait 'til that comes out before I say much more about him.
Monday, August 13, 2012
Recruiting 2013: R.J. Shelton
Back in February the Spartans received a commitment from Wisconsin running back RJ Shelton. This gave them two running backs in the class, which is likely all they'll take.
Shelton is a consensus 3-star recruit with good size (5' 11" and 185 lbs) and athleticism (4.4 in the 40). He had offers from Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin.
Here is his video:
Folks, call me a Spartan slappy but Shelton reminds me a lot of Emmit Smith. He kind of has that forward lean and his feet look like they are sliding along the ground as he runs. More importantly, he does show good speed, great agility (shiftiness), and good vision. I also like that, for a shifty back, he has pretty good strength and balance. He doesn't go down easily.
Upshot: to me, Shelton is one of the most exciting prospects in the 2013 class. He helps confirm that the MSU coaching staff has a sharp eye for talent (MSU was the first to offer Shelton). Shelton doesn't have the elite speed of a guy like Nick Tompkins, but he's fast enough, and I'm thinking he has all the tools to be a star at MSU.
Shelton is a consensus 3-star recruit with good size (5' 11" and 185 lbs) and athleticism (4.4 in the 40). He had offers from Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin.
Here is his video:
Upshot: to me, Shelton is one of the most exciting prospects in the 2013 class. He helps confirm that the MSU coaching staff has a sharp eye for talent (MSU was the first to offer Shelton). Shelton doesn't have the elite speed of a guy like Nick Tompkins, but he's fast enough, and I'm thinking he has all the tools to be a star at MSU.
Sunday, August 12, 2012
Positions MSU Could Soon Dominate in Recruiting
As MSU continues its rise to elite status, the Spartans should begin to win more and more recruiting battles. Eventually, MSU should be able to compete for top recruits at all positions, but for now, and perhaps over the next two years, we'll have to "settle" for recruiting victories at the following positions:
- Linebacker - The success of guys like Greg Jones, Max Bullough, and Denicos Allen is probably already paying off. The Spartans are already getting 4-star guys like Jamal Lyles, Jon Reschke, and Shane Jones; and don't forget that 5-star recruit Lawrence Thomas was recruited to play linebacker, but he outgrew the position. They will likely be in on some more 4-stars in 2014 (they may already have one in Byron Bullough), but I wouldn't be surprised if they are also able to compete for another 5-star linebacker that year.
- Linebacker - The success of guys like Greg Jones, Max Bullough, and Denicos Allen is probably already paying off. The Spartans are already getting 4-star guys like Jamal Lyles, Jon Reschke, and Shane Jones; and don't forget that 5-star recruit Lawrence Thomas was recruited to play linebacker, but he outgrew the position. They will likely be in on some more 4-stars in 2014 (they may already have one in Byron Bullough), but I wouldn't be surprised if they are also able to compete for another 5-star linebacker that year.
- Wide receiver - MSU already has a bit of reputation as a developer of wide receivers, having produced guys like Plaxico Burress, Charles Rogers, and more recently BJ Cunningham and Keshawn Martin. MSU also has a lot of talent at the position on the current roster, perhaps more than it has ever had. But 2014 could take MSU's receiver recruiting to a whole different level. They already have a verbal commitment from the top receiver in the state of Michigan, Drake Harris, and they have a chance to get the best receiver in Ohio, Thaddeus Snodgrass. If that happens, hold on to your hats, folks!
- Cornerback - Mark Dantonio is kind of genius when it comes to the secondary, particularly in terms of recruiting and developing cornerbacks. With guys like Johnny Adams and Darqueze Dennard set to have big years and with Adams looking like a possible first round NFL draft pick in 2013, MSU could develop a reputation as cornerback-U. I suspect that by the 2014 recruiting class MSU will be able to compete for some of the top cornerbacks in the country.
- Cornerback - Mark Dantonio is kind of genius when it comes to the secondary, particularly in terms of recruiting and developing cornerbacks. With guys like Johnny Adams and Darqueze Dennard set to have big years and with Adams looking like a possible first round NFL draft pick in 2013, MSU could develop a reputation as cornerback-U. I suspect that by the 2014 recruiting class MSU will be able to compete for some of the top cornerbacks in the country.
- Defensive tackle - Jerel Worthy's success at MSU and in the NFL draft (second round) has caught the attention of the country's top defensive tackle recruits. I don't think that will pay off this year, however. I do suspect, though, that it will pay off in the 2014 recruiting class, after Anthony Rashad White become the Spartans' second highly drafted defensive tackle (I suspect he'll go somewhere in the first three rounds).
- Running back - The success of guys like Javon Ringer, Edwin Baker, and LeVeon Bell is going to solidify MSU's status as a running back developer. MSU has not recruited any 4-star guys since 2009, when they recruited Baker and Caper, but if LeVeon Bell leaves early and gets drafted in the first 2 rounds of the NFL draft, don't be surprised if that pays off big for MSU in the 2014 class.
- Defensive end - MSU is a little late in developing a reputation as a developer of defensive ends. They were able to get 5-star William Golston, but don't forget that he was originally planning to play linebacker. If Golston goes in the first round of next year's NFL draft (which is a real possibility), don't be surprised if MSU is able to get some top notch defensive end recruits in 2014 - starting, hopefully, with Malik McDowell, who is regarded as the top player in Michigan.
- Quarterback - MSU does a great job of developing quarterbacks as evidenced by the string of guys they've put in the NFL: Drew Stanton, Brian Hoyer, and Kirk Cousins. Andrew Maxwell will hopefully continue that string and hopefully he'll end up being drafted even higher than Kirk Cousins. That could allow MSU to take its quarterback recruiting to another level. MSU is already able to get 4-star guys (like Maxwell), but perhaps with a little more success at the position they could compete for guys ranked in the top 10 nationally. If so, it probably won't happen until the class of 2015, after Maxwell graduates.
At the remaining positions the Spartans still need to do some work, but things still look promising:
- Safety - Trenton Robinson was recently drafted in the 6th round of the NFL draft, but otherwise, the Spartans have some work to do to build up their reputation as developers of safeties. The Spartans currently have some serious talent at the position (e.g., Isaiah Lewis and Demetrius Cox), but it's relatively young talent. It will probably take about 3 years to get this position up to the same level as some of the others.
- Offensive line - Under coach Dantonio, MSU has consistently improved their o-line talent every year. Unfortunately, they have a ways to go before they are considered an NFL o-line factory. It would help a lot if seniors Fou Fonoti and Chris McDonald have big years and get drafted in next year's NFL draft. I have high hopes for both, but neither is likely to go in the first 3 rounds. Nonetheless, if either of them just gets drafted, that will help. Otherwise, the Spartans probably need about 3 more years before they are able to consistently compete for top o-line recruits. Still, I expect the talent at o-line to keep getting better and better.
- Tight end - the Spartans have had solid tight ends recently, but Dion Sims could help get them to the next level. Sims has all the physical tools to get drafted somewhere in the first 3 rounds of the NFL draft, but he needs to stay healthy and he needs to step up his game. If Sims is successful, MSU could start to win some battles for top tight ends in about 2 years.
Upshot: I think that if MSU's recruiting and player development keep improving at the same rate they have over Mark Dantonio's tenure, there is good reason to believe that MSU could be like Alabama soon. They could churn out top-level NFL talent year after year, and recruit top classes year after year. They had 6 guys get drafted in the NFL draft this year (tied for most in the B1G with Iowa and Wisconsin), and I think they will have a similar number next year, if guys like William Golston and LeVeon Bell leave early. Next year, however, they could get more guys drafted in the first 3 rounds than ever before (guys like: Golston, Bell, Johnny Adams, and possibly Anthony Rashad White and Fou Fonoti). Slowly but surely, folks. Slowly but surely.
- Defensive end - MSU is a little late in developing a reputation as a developer of defensive ends. They were able to get 5-star William Golston, but don't forget that he was originally planning to play linebacker. If Golston goes in the first round of next year's NFL draft (which is a real possibility), don't be surprised if MSU is able to get some top notch defensive end recruits in 2014 - starting, hopefully, with Malik McDowell, who is regarded as the top player in Michigan.
- Quarterback - MSU does a great job of developing quarterbacks as evidenced by the string of guys they've put in the NFL: Drew Stanton, Brian Hoyer, and Kirk Cousins. Andrew Maxwell will hopefully continue that string and hopefully he'll end up being drafted even higher than Kirk Cousins. That could allow MSU to take its quarterback recruiting to another level. MSU is already able to get 4-star guys (like Maxwell), but perhaps with a little more success at the position they could compete for guys ranked in the top 10 nationally. If so, it probably won't happen until the class of 2015, after Maxwell graduates.
At the remaining positions the Spartans still need to do some work, but things still look promising:
- Safety - Trenton Robinson was recently drafted in the 6th round of the NFL draft, but otherwise, the Spartans have some work to do to build up their reputation as developers of safeties. The Spartans currently have some serious talent at the position (e.g., Isaiah Lewis and Demetrius Cox), but it's relatively young talent. It will probably take about 3 years to get this position up to the same level as some of the others.
- Offensive line - Under coach Dantonio, MSU has consistently improved their o-line talent every year. Unfortunately, they have a ways to go before they are considered an NFL o-line factory. It would help a lot if seniors Fou Fonoti and Chris McDonald have big years and get drafted in next year's NFL draft. I have high hopes for both, but neither is likely to go in the first 3 rounds. Nonetheless, if either of them just gets drafted, that will help. Otherwise, the Spartans probably need about 3 more years before they are able to consistently compete for top o-line recruits. Still, I expect the talent at o-line to keep getting better and better.
- Tight end - the Spartans have had solid tight ends recently, but Dion Sims could help get them to the next level. Sims has all the physical tools to get drafted somewhere in the first 3 rounds of the NFL draft, but he needs to stay healthy and he needs to step up his game. If Sims is successful, MSU could start to win some battles for top tight ends in about 2 years.
Upshot: I think that if MSU's recruiting and player development keep improving at the same rate they have over Mark Dantonio's tenure, there is good reason to believe that MSU could be like Alabama soon. They could churn out top-level NFL talent year after year, and recruit top classes year after year. They had 6 guys get drafted in the NFL draft this year (tied for most in the B1G with Iowa and Wisconsin), and I think they will have a similar number next year, if guys like William Golston and LeVeon Bell leave early. Next year, however, they could get more guys drafted in the first 3 rounds than ever before (guys like: Golston, Bell, Johnny Adams, and possibly Anthony Rashad White and Fou Fonoti). Slowly but surely, folks. Slowly but surely.
Saturday, August 11, 2012
Recruiting 2013: Gerald Holmes
Back in February, the Spartans received a commitment from Michigan running back Gerald Holmes. Holmes is a consensus 3-star recruit whose only other offers are from CMU and Toledo. He likely would have ended up with more offers if he hadn't committed so early.
Holmes will fill the role of big running back when he gets to MSU. He is already 6' 1" and about 205 lbs, and he could put on some more mass throughout his senior year. There's no info on his athleticism, so we need to take a look at his video.
Holmes is not a burner, but he has serviceable speed. His best attributes are: good vision (he seems to be able to find the holes), some moves (he makes people miss when he needs to), he can be pretty physical (he goes after tacklers in a few plays and throws some good blocks), and he can catch the ball.
Upshot: I don't think he's as athletic as LeVeon Bell and Larry Caper, but it's always possible that he'll get faster and stronger by the time he gets to MSU. If he doesn't become more athletic, his vision and aggressive running style may still win him playing time, perhaps as the "thunder" of any "thunder and lightning" partnership, and he may even have the tools to become an every-down back. At this point, Holmes looks like less of sure thing than other recruits I've looked at. But I've also seen guys make dramatic improvements in their highlights from their junior to their senior years (e.g., Monty Madaris and MacGarrett Kings). So let's wait 'til his senior year video comes out before making bold predictions about Holmes' future.
Holmes will fill the role of big running back when he gets to MSU. He is already 6' 1" and about 205 lbs, and he could put on some more mass throughout his senior year. There's no info on his athleticism, so we need to take a look at his video.
Upshot: I don't think he's as athletic as LeVeon Bell and Larry Caper, but it's always possible that he'll get faster and stronger by the time he gets to MSU. If he doesn't become more athletic, his vision and aggressive running style may still win him playing time, perhaps as the "thunder" of any "thunder and lightning" partnership, and he may even have the tools to become an every-down back. At this point, Holmes looks like less of sure thing than other recruits I've looked at. But I've also seen guys make dramatic improvements in their highlights from their junior to their senior years (e.g., Monty Madaris and MacGarrett Kings). So let's wait 'til his senior year video comes out before making bold predictions about Holmes' future.
Friday, August 10, 2012
Will 2011 Recruiting Class Step Up?
Looks like these guys beat me to this topic, but I'll still go ahead and put in my two cents.
One of the big reasons the Spartans excelled last year is that the 2010 recruiting class stepped up in a major way. Here's a list of the biggest contributors from that class: Darqueze Dennard, Anthony Rashad White, LeVeon Bell, Skyler Burkland, Kurtis Drummond, Mike Sadler, Marcus Rush, Isaiah Lewis, Travis Jackson, Nick Hill, William Gholston, Tony Lippett, and Max Bullough. Several of these guys became starters - star starters - and those that didn't become starters played important roles.
So the question is: will we see the class of 2011 make similar contributions? I'm going to go with . . . no. It's not that the class of 2011 isn't talented, but it's more that the Spartans have become a very deep squad. They're loaded at all positions to the point that even Lawrence Thomas, 5-star recruit, will have to completely excel to see the field.
So which guys might step up from the 2011 class? Well, Fou Fonoti is already contributing as the starter at right tackle. Of course, he has the advantage of being a junior college transfer and being a senior this year. I'm expecting big things from Fonoti, hoping that he ends up doing well enough to get drafted in the first 4 rounds of the NFL draft.
After Fonoti we have a lot of talented guys that probably could start for many other teams but that probably won't start at MSU until guys ahead of them graduate or (heaven forbid) get injured. Nonetheless, the following guys could still make important contributions:
- Lawrence Thomas - probably won't start this year at defensive end unless William Golston goes down. But I'm hoping to at least see signs this year that LT could become the next Golston, especially if Golston is leaving early for the NFL.
- Jack Allen - won't beat out Travis Jackson at center but could end up beating out Blake Treadwell for a guard spot. In any case, since he can probably play at three spots on the O-line, he will likely end up playing quite a bit this year.
- Shilique Calhoun - probably won't start at defensive end, but I'm hoping to see signs that he could become the next Julian Peterson, as Mark Dantonio suggests.
- Andre Sims - could end up playing a lot at receiver. Of course, the Spartans are thin at receiver, but more importantly, Sims may have been the most effective receiver in the Spring game (though several of the top guys were injured).
- Roger Williamson - is in a battle for a starting safety spot with Kurtis Drummond. He may still win the starting job, though there is talk that both of them could be pushed by true freshman Demetrious Cox.
- Darien Harris - had a good Spring and appears to have become the backup for Chris Norman. He won't start, unless there is an injury, but maybe we'll see flashes of brilliance.
- Paul Lang - I haven't heard much about Lang, but since he plays tight end, a position where the Spartans are thin, he should have a better opportunity than most to contribute. We'll see if he can take advantage.
One of the big reasons the Spartans excelled last year is that the 2010 recruiting class stepped up in a major way. Here's a list of the biggest contributors from that class: Darqueze Dennard, Anthony Rashad White, LeVeon Bell, Skyler Burkland, Kurtis Drummond, Mike Sadler, Marcus Rush, Isaiah Lewis, Travis Jackson, Nick Hill, William Gholston, Tony Lippett, and Max Bullough. Several of these guys became starters - star starters - and those that didn't become starters played important roles.
So the question is: will we see the class of 2011 make similar contributions? I'm going to go with . . . no. It's not that the class of 2011 isn't talented, but it's more that the Spartans have become a very deep squad. They're loaded at all positions to the point that even Lawrence Thomas, 5-star recruit, will have to completely excel to see the field.
So which guys might step up from the 2011 class? Well, Fou Fonoti is already contributing as the starter at right tackle. Of course, he has the advantage of being a junior college transfer and being a senior this year. I'm expecting big things from Fonoti, hoping that he ends up doing well enough to get drafted in the first 4 rounds of the NFL draft.
After Fonoti we have a lot of talented guys that probably could start for many other teams but that probably won't start at MSU until guys ahead of them graduate or (heaven forbid) get injured. Nonetheless, the following guys could still make important contributions:
- Lawrence Thomas - probably won't start this year at defensive end unless William Golston goes down. But I'm hoping to at least see signs this year that LT could become the next Golston, especially if Golston is leaving early for the NFL.
- Jack Allen - won't beat out Travis Jackson at center but could end up beating out Blake Treadwell for a guard spot. In any case, since he can probably play at three spots on the O-line, he will likely end up playing quite a bit this year.
- Shilique Calhoun - probably won't start at defensive end, but I'm hoping to see signs that he could become the next Julian Peterson, as Mark Dantonio suggests.
- Andre Sims - could end up playing a lot at receiver. Of course, the Spartans are thin at receiver, but more importantly, Sims may have been the most effective receiver in the Spring game (though several of the top guys were injured).
- Roger Williamson - is in a battle for a starting safety spot with Kurtis Drummond. He may still win the starting job, though there is talk that both of them could be pushed by true freshman Demetrious Cox.
- Darien Harris - had a good Spring and appears to have become the backup for Chris Norman. He won't start, unless there is an injury, but maybe we'll see flashes of brilliance.
- Paul Lang - I haven't heard much about Lang, but since he plays tight end, a position where the Spartans are thin, he should have a better opportunity than most to contribute. We'll see if he can take advantage.
Wednesday, August 8, 2012
MSU Could Consolidate Its Eliteness Over the Next 2 Years
Folks, I don't have to tell you that we are currently living through one of the greatest epochs in MSU football history. But how did we get here? Of course, the coaches and talented players have a lot to do with it. But if you think about long enough, you also start to see what seems like a little divine intervention (or a fortunate series of events). You also start to see how this divine intervention could carry MSU to even greater heights.
Where I tend to see more divine intervention is in what happened to the top teams in the B1G during Dantonio's tenure at MSU. We all know how Michigan faltered under Rich Rodriguez and how MSU was able to defeat the Rodriguez-led Wolverines three straight years. That alone enhanced MSU's prestige throughout the state, but beyond that, Rodriguez' non-pro style allowed MSU to compete for recruits that may have typically gone to UM. Guys like Edwin Baker and Larry Caper could have ended up at UM if Rodriguez was not there.
Ohio State experienced less of a collapse than UM when tattoo-gate brought Jim Tressel down. But their stumble probably helped MSU defeat OSU in it's home stadium for the first time . . . in a long time. The scandal also cost OSU a few scholarships, and while it's hard to quantify how that benefitted the Spartans, we can safely guess that it may have allowed MSU to pick up at least one more elite player than they normally would have - I'm thinking of someone like Ohio receiver Monty Madaris.
Now, UM and OSU do seem to be back on track. Does that mean that the gods have stopped smiling on MSU. I don't think so. In fact, I think the gods have given MSU at least two more years to solidify their rise to the top.
Here's the deal. I don't care what the preseason rankings say, the Spartans are going to be better this year than UM and OSU. This year's Spartans are still more talented and farther along in their development than both UM and OSU, and OSU will likely experience some transition issues under Urban Meyer. Thus, while MSU could still lose their game this year against either of those teams, I would say that if they played those teams 10 times, MSU would beat them 7 times.
We can start to get more worried in 2013. That's when Brady Hoke's recruiting prowess will begin to pay off, and that's when OSU will likely have resolved all of its transition issues. OSU in particular could be scary. Braxton Miller will be a junior quarterback and the defensive line OSU will have that year could be monstrous.
So 2013 is when MSU will give way to the traditional powers? Wrong. Fortunately for us, MSU should be peaking in 2013 - depending on how many guys we lose to the NFL. MSU should have a lot of seniors that year, and I'm talking star seniors, including: Andrew Maxwell, Le'Veon Bell, Dion Sims, William Golston, Max Bullough, Denicos Allen, Darqueze Dennard, and many more. MSU will also certainly have it's wide receiver issues resolved. Thus, I think that MSU could end up being stronger that year than both UM and OSU, and that should be Dantonio's best year to win a national championship.
So, in essence, I think the football gods have given MSU two more years to consolidate the eliteness of the football program. During that time, MSU should be able to capitalize on its success and should be able to start competing for top recruits - not that the recruits MSU is getting now are chopped liver, but I mean that they should be able to win more recruiting battles. By then, MSU should get several more guys drafted in the early rounds of the NFL. We can already see how the success of guys like Jerel Worthy is starting to pay off on the recruiting trail - some top defensive tackles are looking at MSU. That pay off should start to snowball over the next two years.
In short, if MSU does what I think it can do over the next two years, we don't need to worry about the rise of UM and OSU. By 2015, MSU's status as an elite program could be pretty consolidated.
Where I tend to see more divine intervention is in what happened to the top teams in the B1G during Dantonio's tenure at MSU. We all know how Michigan faltered under Rich Rodriguez and how MSU was able to defeat the Rodriguez-led Wolverines three straight years. That alone enhanced MSU's prestige throughout the state, but beyond that, Rodriguez' non-pro style allowed MSU to compete for recruits that may have typically gone to UM. Guys like Edwin Baker and Larry Caper could have ended up at UM if Rodriguez was not there.
Ohio State experienced less of a collapse than UM when tattoo-gate brought Jim Tressel down. But their stumble probably helped MSU defeat OSU in it's home stadium for the first time . . . in a long time. The scandal also cost OSU a few scholarships, and while it's hard to quantify how that benefitted the Spartans, we can safely guess that it may have allowed MSU to pick up at least one more elite player than they normally would have - I'm thinking of someone like Ohio receiver Monty Madaris.
Now, UM and OSU do seem to be back on track. Does that mean that the gods have stopped smiling on MSU. I don't think so. In fact, I think the gods have given MSU at least two more years to solidify their rise to the top.
Here's the deal. I don't care what the preseason rankings say, the Spartans are going to be better this year than UM and OSU. This year's Spartans are still more talented and farther along in their development than both UM and OSU, and OSU will likely experience some transition issues under Urban Meyer. Thus, while MSU could still lose their game this year against either of those teams, I would say that if they played those teams 10 times, MSU would beat them 7 times.
We can start to get more worried in 2013. That's when Brady Hoke's recruiting prowess will begin to pay off, and that's when OSU will likely have resolved all of its transition issues. OSU in particular could be scary. Braxton Miller will be a junior quarterback and the defensive line OSU will have that year could be monstrous.
So 2013 is when MSU will give way to the traditional powers? Wrong. Fortunately for us, MSU should be peaking in 2013 - depending on how many guys we lose to the NFL. MSU should have a lot of seniors that year, and I'm talking star seniors, including: Andrew Maxwell, Le'Veon Bell, Dion Sims, William Golston, Max Bullough, Denicos Allen, Darqueze Dennard, and many more. MSU will also certainly have it's wide receiver issues resolved. Thus, I think that MSU could end up being stronger that year than both UM and OSU, and that should be Dantonio's best year to win a national championship.
So, in essence, I think the football gods have given MSU two more years to consolidate the eliteness of the football program. During that time, MSU should be able to capitalize on its success and should be able to start competing for top recruits - not that the recruits MSU is getting now are chopped liver, but I mean that they should be able to win more recruiting battles. By then, MSU should get several more guys drafted in the early rounds of the NFL. We can already see how the success of guys like Jerel Worthy is starting to pay off on the recruiting trail - some top defensive tackles are looking at MSU. That pay off should start to snowball over the next two years.
In short, if MSU does what I think it can do over the next two years, we don't need to worry about the rise of UM and OSU. By 2015, MSU's status as an elite program could be pretty consolidated.
Friday, August 3, 2012
Recruiting 2013: Jon Reschke
Linebacker Jon Reschke (from Michigan) committed back in February, and he's generally regarded as the Spartan's top recruit, up to this point. He's a consensus 4-star recruit to the all the recruiting services, and he has the highest score of all the Spartan recruits on 247's composite score (which combines the scores of all the recruiting sites). He committed early and this likely explains why his only other offer at the recruiting sites is from Toledo.
Reschke has good size (6' 2" and over 220 lbs.) and athleticism (under 4.7 in the 40) for a linebacker. His video pretty much confirms those numbers:
He shows pretty good instincts, speed, relentlessness, and the ability to shed blockers. The obvious expectation is that Reschke will take over for Max Bullough in a couple of years. I would say that looks very likely. Check out what Bullough looked like in high school. There are clearly a lot of physical similarities between these two. I just hope Reschke has the same kind of leadership and intelligence. And according to several things I've read about him, his intelligence is one of his best traits.
Upshot: Reschke looks set to keep the middle linebacker position solid for the Spartans, for years to come. But as good as Reschke looks to be, I really hope Bullough comes back for his senior year. I don't see a clear replacement for Bullough on the current roster, and Reschke likely won't be ready to excel at middle linebacker until at least his sophomore year.
Reschke has good size (6' 2" and over 220 lbs.) and athleticism (under 4.7 in the 40) for a linebacker. His video pretty much confirms those numbers:
Upshot: Reschke looks set to keep the middle linebacker position solid for the Spartans, for years to come. But as good as Reschke looks to be, I really hope Bullough comes back for his senior year. I don't see a clear replacement for Bullough on the current roster, and Reschke likely won't be ready to excel at middle linebacker until at least his sophomore year.
Thursday, August 2, 2012
Recruiting 2013: Jalyn Powell
I have a lot of catching up to do, including reports on 2013 commits. I'll get to them in the order they committed. Safety Jalyn Powell was the first commit, so I'll start with him.
Powell is considered a 3-star recruit by all the recruiting services except ESPN, which has him at 4 stars. His only other significant offer was from West Virginia, but this likely is a reflection of his early commitment. He is listed as a safety recruit and he has good size (6' 1" and 185 lbs) for that position. As for his athleticism, there is a little uncertainty. Only ESPN has a time for him in the 40-meter run, listing him at 4.82. That would pretty slow for a safety. His highlight video, however, suggests he's much faster than that.
The quality of the video is pretty shoddy, but there are some moments where he makes some Forrest Gump kind of plays, where he looks like the fastest guy on the field, by far. That tells me that he's way faster than 4.82 in the 40. You can also see that he is a solid tackler. He finds the ball well, delivers some solid hits, and even sheds blockers pretty well. These things make me think that Powell could end up as a linebacker, eventually. He would need to gain about 25 pounds, but he should have plenty of time to do that. Otherwise, you don't get to see him do much in the secondary, so we can't really see what kind of instincts he has for that position.
Upshot: Powell has the potential to play several positions. He has the athleticism to be a safety or a receiver. He also shows the instincts and ability to play linebacker - man, he could be a really athletic linebacker (perhaps even more athletic than Denicos Allen). Whatever he ends up playing, Powell looks like an excellent pickup for MSU.
Powell is considered a 3-star recruit by all the recruiting services except ESPN, which has him at 4 stars. His only other significant offer was from West Virginia, but this likely is a reflection of his early commitment. He is listed as a safety recruit and he has good size (6' 1" and 185 lbs) for that position. As for his athleticism, there is a little uncertainty. Only ESPN has a time for him in the 40-meter run, listing him at 4.82. That would pretty slow for a safety. His highlight video, however, suggests he's much faster than that.
Upshot: Powell has the potential to play several positions. He has the athleticism to be a safety or a receiver. He also shows the instincts and ability to play linebacker - man, he could be a really athletic linebacker (perhaps even more athletic than Denicos Allen). Whatever he ends up playing, Powell looks like an excellent pickup for MSU.
Wednesday, August 1, 2012
New Roster, Good News
The new roster is out, and it includes the 2012 recruits. It looks like there are 26 freshmen, including all 21 of the scholarship recruits. Of particular interest, it looks like star receiver Aaron Burbridge and Jr. College tight end Jamare Mills were able to address their academic issues. Now we can talk about their potential contributions without qualifications. This does show that Dantonio and the coaches do an excellent job of finding talented guys that will make it to campus. Many of the programs that rank high in recruiting actually end up losing some recruits.
Thoughts on Depth Chart
Of course, the depth chart came out last week. Many things have already been written about it, so I'll keep my thoughts short. Here are some things that stood out to me:
- Tyler Hoover got bigger! He is now listed as weighing 310, which I think is at least 20 pounds heavier than he was for the Spring game. I'm excited to see if Hoover and Kittredge will be an improvement over last year's defensive tackles: Pickelman and Strayhorn.
- Keith Mumphery is listed as a starter at receiver. At the end of last year I thought Bennie Fowler and Tony Lippett would have the first crack at starting.
- Andre Sims is "tied" with DeAnthony Arnett. Sims could turn out to be one of those diamonds in the rough. He was the only receiver at the Spring game that was consistently getting open, and he caught just about everything thrown his way.
- Skyler Burkland is a backup. Burkland could still be recovering from his leg injury or France and Fonoti could just be very good. We'll see if he can crack the starting lineup in camp. In any case, the OT position looks good for the Spartans.
- Taiwan Jones received a lot of hype last year, but he is now listed as third for STAR linebacker, behind Chris Norman and Darrien Harris. I'm hoping that's because Harris is so good, rather than because Jones regressed. Could Harris be another one of Dantonio's great finds?
- Will the arrival of the true freshmen change the depth chart? On defense, I suspect the answer is no. The Spartans are way too deep on D. Maybe the highly rated safety, Demetrious Cox, will have a shot as the season progresses. On offense, as Dantonio has mentioned, the freshmen receivers and tight ends will have a good shot at earning some playing time. I would put my money on Aaron Burbridge and Jamare Mills. I also wouldn't be surprised if some of the speedsters (guys like MacGarrett Kings and Nick Tompkins) got to run some plays to the outside of the tackles. I think offensive coordinator Dan Roushar has a preference for running to the outside. That preference actually cost them the Nebraska game, in my opinion, because MSU didn't quite have the speed to run outside the tackles against Nebraska (particularly against their outside linebacker Levonte David). Kings and Tompkins may actually have the speed to successfully run to the outside against speedier defenses and thus I wouldn't be surprised if the coaches decided not to redshirt them.
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