Thoughts on TCU Game

I don't have much time to blog these days, but here are some brief thoughts on the BWW Bowl:

- The defense remains solid. If I had any frustrations, it's that they weren't perfect. But you just can't ask for more than what they gave.

- The offense showed some positive things, but overall, I'm worried about next year's offense.  A month of practice did not seem to lead to much improvement. Granted, they were playing a good defense. But the Spartan O is way too dependent on one star player, Le'Veon Bell, who may be leaving early for the NFL. The offensive futility was worrisome enough that I almost think there needs to be a "culture change." I'm practically talking about bringing in a new OC that can redirect the ship. Maybe the shift to more mobile quarterbacks will be enough. But right now I think it's safe to worry about next year's offense.

- I want Andrew Maxwell to succeed, I like the kid, but it looks like he will be fighting for his job next year. These days, you gotta be able to run as a quarterback. Connor Cook is no RGIII, but you could see that his mobility was making a difference. I really hope Maxwell will work on his speed over the coming months (you'd be surprised how much of a difference it can make to do a lot of sprinting and agility work), and I hope he makes a lot of progress in some other areas.

- The receivers are practically back to where they were at the start of the season. Too many drops. Some guys are going to have to step up.

Terribly Busy These Days

Hope to have more time in a couple of weeks.

Thoughts on Minnesota Game

Well, the game unfolded about how I expected -- in fact, I almost nailed the score (I predicted 27 to 10). The Spartan D did better than I expected and the O and the special teams were competent.  Gotta keep this short because of family issues.

Offense

Once they stopped messing around with the passing, the offense dominated Minnesota.

The O-line and the Bell-dozer were nearly unstoppable in the running game. The O-line is still struggling in the passing game, particularly because of the struggles at the tackle positions. France and Burkland are struggling with the speed rushers.

Maxwell and the receivers are still a work in progress. Their futility killed many drives.

Defense

I expected them to dominate and they did. They provided good pressure on the quarterback and the secondary played outstanding.

Special teams

Started off weak, but ended with a competent game.

Coaches

No significant problems. My only complaint is that they tried to pass too often when it was clear that Bell was unstoppable. The passing game is simply killing drives.

Upshot

It was a solid victory for MSU, but the same concerns remain. The passing game has not progressed enough throughout this season. That was not an issue today against a weak Minnesota team but it could be an issue in the bowl game. Man, I hope they make enormous progress before next season.

Preview of Minnesota Game

Ahallrighty, folks. We come to the big one, what Dantonio calls a "program" game. Lose, and this season can be declared an unmitigated disaster. Lose, and we can comfortably declare this the kind of season that can cause much damage to what has been built in the last few years.  Win, and then win again in the bowl game, and this season can still be perceived as something slightly less than reasonable. Especially if MSU can finally play 2 complete games. I'm talking about a dominating defensive performance, coupled with competent offensive and special teams performances.

Unfulfilled weekly predictions of MSU victory have exhausted me, but this will the last one for a while, so here goes. MSU's D should be able to keep Minnesota's O under 13 points. Nay, Minnesota is scoring 22.4 points a game, so the Spartan D should actually be able to hold them under 10 points.

I have had a chance to calm down about the last game, so I can objectively say that the MSU offense is on the brink of putting it together. If not for the turnovers, last week, this team would have had the offensive explosion I predicted for them. Dare I, then, predict an explosion this week? Well, I'm relatively confident that they will move the ball very well. The o-line is looking better and better, Bell should have a good game, Dion Sims is back.  Maxwell and the receivers are not quite where you want them to be, but they're OK.

But, will they be able finish drives? I've been burned so many times this year than I'm now a little superstitious against predicting an offensive explosion. But at least on paper it looks like they will be able to finish drives and score quite a few points. I guess I'll go with that.

Final score: MSU 27  Minn 10

Coaches and Maxwell Should be Watching Stanford

I'm watching the Stanford v. Oregon game and in it you can see the point I made in my post-game analysis about running quarterbacks. You have a redshirt freshman, Kevin Hogan, who looks like the next Andrew Luck. His ability to run with the ball has made a difference. The play on which he ran it for a touchdown is a play in which Maxwell would likely have thrown it away. The bottom line, for me, is that football (especially college football) is sloppy. A majority of the time, plays don't unfold as you design them. You gotta be able to adjust, and that's what running helps you do. Maxwell needs to use his legs a whole lot more, or the coaches need to consider putting in someone who can.

Update: Turns out that Oregon's quarterback, Marcus Mariota, is also a redshirt freshman. So there's another successful example of a running quarterback succeeding at an early age. Oh, and why not add Johnny Manziel at Texas A&M to that list.

Thoughts on Northwestern Game

OK, so this game was bad enough to make me question why I care about football. It's hard to understand how MSU could be this bad. The futility is bad enough to make me question the promise of next year's team.

Offense

This is the last time I predict an offensive explosion. The offense actually moved the ball well, but they make too many mistakes.

OK, so I have now come to see Maxwell as a bigger part of the problem. He's too inaccurate and immobile. He frequently doesn't hit wide receivers accurately enough to give them a chance to run after the catch. For example, on one bubble screen Burbridge had to jump for the ball, and by the time he came down the defender was on him. Maxwell shows flashes of brilliance, but that's not enough if you want to win in the B1G.

The receivers were OK today, but they still drop too many balls to be considered outstanding. To win, you have to be outstanding.

The o-line continues to struggle at the tackle positions. Just not quite mobile enough.

Bell was fine, but he does try too often to run to the outside when he should just run up the gut.

Defense

Another great performance wasted. This D completely slowed down a potent offense. They only gave up 16 points. You can't ask for more than that.

Special Teams

I've said it before, this was a terrible year for the special teams to struggle. Sims almost turned the ball over and Conroy missed another easy kick.

Coaches

It was clear in this game that, apart from the defense, the coaches are not having a good year. Two weeks off and this team did not look sharp. Icing the kicker is a myth. I can't believe I saw Dantonio try to do that. I did not like the quarterback sneak in the first quarter. Why would you do that at a time when NU couldn't stop Bell? In general, every time the offense was moving the ball well the play calling seemed to go away from what was working.

Upshot

In the short term, this loss makes me doubt this team will make a bowl game. If they do, they will likely lose. The bottom line for this season is that this offense just can't make enough progress. Every time I think they are getting better, they show a level of incompetence that makes you feel embarrassed.

The progress is so slow that I now actually think next year is in jeopardy. The success of next year's offense will depend on: Maxwell making a considerable amount of progress in the off-season, the receivers and tight-ends becoming outstanding, and the o-line making considerable progress (especially at the tackle positions). That's a lot to ask. I still think the offense will be better next year, but probably not much better. I hate to say it, but they will need a new offensive coordinator, one under which the offense can at least show steady progress. Right now this offense is simply not progressing enough.

More than ever, I am now thinking that this team needs to move towards an offense that better suits the talent this program can recruit and that doesn't depend upon young geniuses. The thing I'm noticing this year is how many teams are doing well with young quarterbacks that can run.  Even some freshmen quarterbacks (heck, even Devin Gardner, who was playing wide receiver most of the season!) are doing well because they are able to make plays with their feet. Maxwell has to throw the ball away when his receivers aren't open, even when he actually has a bit of space to run to. If MSU is not going to switch to the spread, then they at least need a quarterback that can run. Fortunately, they have more mobile quarterbacks coming up. But they need to absolutely emphasize that in their recruiting, from now on. The faster the better.

Preview of Northwestern Game

Alright, it's gut-check time. The Spartans can end the season with a reasonable record if they win the rest of their games. Oddly enough, this first game against Northwestern may be the toughest left on the schedule -- including the bowl game (if they get to 7-5, I can't imagine they'll end up playing a particularly tough opponent). Here is why the Spartans should be able to beat Northwestern.

First and foremost, the Spartan D should be able to slow down Northwestern's offense. Normally I would say that NU's offense is dangerous, but I expect several key players to be hobbled this week.  In particular, their starting quarterback Kain Colter suffered an ankle injury against UM that should slow him down a bit. Colter is very dangerous, otherwise. The Spartan D should also benefit from their experience against Nebraska's spread offense. In particular, I hope the coaches have harped on the importance of containment!

The Spartan offense should be able to score points against Northwestern's 41st ranked defense, if the Spartan O plays at least as well as last week. Fortunately, I think the Spartan O has climbed over a hump (though perhaps not over THE hump), and the bye should have helped them consolidate their gains. The o-line will continue to improve, Bell should have a nice game, the receivers and tight ends should match up well against the Northwestern secondary, and Maxwell should play well enough to make us excited about next year.

I'll be inconsolable if the offensive and defensive performances don't match up again. If the offense scores more than 21 points and the Spartans lose, then you know this season was cursed. In the end, I am actually expecting to see an offensive explosion and a solid defensive performance, which translates into a comfortable win for MSU. Expect many people to say, "this is what we were expecting from MSU this season, too bad they weren't able to put it together until now."

Final prediction: MSU 30  Northwestern 14

Salvaging the Season

Folks, nobody has been more disappointed in the Spartans this year than me. But even I have managed to talk myself into seeing the results of this season as reasonable . . . if the Spartans win the rest of their games. And they should have a good shot at doing that.

If the Spartans win the rest of their games this season, including their bowl game, they will end the season at 8 - 5. That's three fewer wins than last year. When you consider that they played a tough schedule this year, and that they replaced their entire passing game (quarterback, receivers, tight ends), and that they lost 2 of their best defensive players in recent memory (Jerel Worthy and Trenton Robinson), three fewer wins sounds about right.

Sure, we all hoped that the passing game would somehow not struggle and that they wouldn't suffer key injuries (especially on the O-line), but hope usually doesn't pan out. You have to be more honest with yourself about what you have, and I think many of us forgot that. I think that most of us expected this year's Spartans to be where next year's Spartans will be.  I think that next season we have much more reason to have extremely high expectations.

This year, we had to be more patient. We should have expected an 8 - 5 season. Of course, if the Spartans don't finish 8 - 5, then we can start to get a little upset. MSU should be able to beat Northwestern, Minnesota, and probably any team they'll face in their bowl game. If they finish below 8 - 5, this team can be deemed to have under-performed. The coaches will deserve much of the blame and they will have to seriously think about making significant changes as they prepare for next season.

2 Key Lessons From this Disappointing Season

We have a bye this week, so I thought I'd take the time to reflect on 2 key lessons we can learn from this disappointing season.  Of course, we all know that the passing game was completely replaced this season: the quarterback, the receivers, the tight ends. Most of us saw that coming, and most people expected some growing pains. But I don't think any of us thought those losses would hurt the team this much. Well, now we all know better, and hopefully the coaches know better. And that brings us to the first key lesson: the coaches need to do a better job of anticipating those perfect storms of talent loss.

Coaches have to keep an eye out for those situations where the team could end up thin at key positions, especially skilled positions which take longer to develop than other positions. Quarterback, receiver, and tight end must always be well-stocked. The Spartans made a critical mistake with the 2011 recruiting class when they brought in only one clear receiver, Juwan Caeser -- who hasn't played at all this year. Andre Sims was a part of that class, and while he is now playing receiver, it appears he was originally recruited to play cornerback. In fact, Sims and Lippett's development as receivers may have been delayed by the fact that both were origially slated to play on defense.

The quarterback position did not suffer the depth problem quite as much. The Spartans have 3 talented scholarship quarterbacks and several upper-class walk-ons. The bigger problem at quarterback is game experience. Which brings up key lesson number 2 of this horrible season: get your future starters into as many games as possible. 

I remember thinking that last year.  There were a few blowouts where Cousins stayed in the game well into the 4rth quarter, and I remember wondering, "why not get Maxwell in there, it's not like you're protecting his redshirt?" In fact, Maxwell only made 26 throws in 2011. That tells me that the coaches just hadn't thought much about getting key players ready for 2012. We can see the same thing with the receivers. Fowler did get some meaningful playing time the last 2 years, but Lippett only had 4 catches in 2011 and Mumphery only 2.

You can't help but worry that the coaches may make the same mistake in future years. Next year, I could see them having problems with running backs. If Bell leaves early for the NFL, next year's running backs will be relatively inexperienced. Thankfully, running back doesn't take as much time to develop as quarterback and receiver (as Iowa shows every year), but the coaches should still be trying to get next year's potential starters a little more playing time.

Another potential trouble spot is cornerback. Folks, Darqueze Dennard looks like a first or second round draft pick to me and that makes it likely he will leave at the end of this season. That could leave the Spartans thin at the position. So the coaches need to be thinking about that possibility and they need to be communicating with Dennard so that they can plan accordingly.

Finally, after what we've gone through this year, I'll be upset during the 2013 season if the coaches don't play the backup quarterback more often (whoever that turns out to be), especially during blowouts. If the team is up 3 or 4 touchdowns late in the third quarter, why not let the backup play the rest of the game? I don't want the 2014 season to be a repeat of this season, and so I'd like to see the backup get at least 50 pass attempts throughout the 2013 season. 

Thoughts on Nebraska Game

This feels like the most painful loss I can remember. The refs were terrible, but they were terrible both ways. It was basically a good game, a classic. But it was a painful classic.

Offense

Man, I got this one right. The offense finally did something.

The O-line looked pretty good. They are gelling, though France had his weak moments at left tackle.

Bell cashed in on the decent line play and some good calls by Roushar.

Maxwell, played OK, and put some passes on the money that could have changed the outcome of the game, if the receivers had caught them.

The inconsistency of the receivers reared its ugly head. They had some key drops. Where is Burbridge?

The tight ends are not doing much. Dion Sims is not back to normal.

But overall, the offense played well enough to win.

Defense

What a time for the offense and defense to mismatch their performances. The defense was solid most of the time, but they got burned on too many big plays. I hate to single guys out, but Gholston made several key mistakes. He lost contain too often and allowed several big plays to his side.

The younger secondary players made critical mistakes (e.g., Hicks' late hit out of bounds, and who left that Nebraska receiver wide open on 4rth and 9?). Critical mistakes at terrible times.

Darqueze Dennard looked like a first round pick in this game. I hate to say it, but he will be gone at the end of this year. The Spartans could have their 2 starting corners going in the top 2 rounds. That's bad for next year, but good for recruiting. Dantonio may need to recruit another standout corner for the 2013 class.

Coaches

They called a pretty good game. I mean, Nebraska basically won because they had 4 huge plays. Most of the time, MSU was in control.

They probably did get too conservative at the end. But I would have done the same thing, so I can't really complain.

Upshot

The Spartans should have a good chance to win their last 2 games, and they should end up in a bowl game, as long as the offense does not regress. Nonetheless, it's now easy to declare this season a near perfect failure. Things could not have gone much worse.

As for the longer term future, this game suggests a few things.  First, it shows you how hard it is to stop the spread. MSU has been as dominant on defense as any team can be, and they could not overcome Taylor Martinez. I think the Spartans should start moving towards more of a spread offense. Running quarterbacks add that extra element of advantage. When done correctly, it's impossible to stop. More importantly, spread offenses don't require elite O-line talent. If MSU can't recruit that kind of talent, they need to consider moving in that direction. Under Dantonio, I don't think MSU has ever had the O-line talent to properly run a pro-style offense. I'm not talking Oregon or Rich Rodriguez kind of spread. But MSU should start incorporating more spread elements. Shoot, even the NFL is moving towards more spread elements.

Next year, MSU will have their best O-line under Dantonio, if they still struggle on offense, then the writing is on the wall.

Preview of Nebraska Game

Just a week ago I would have said this game has the makings of a blowout, as in, the Spartans were going to get blown out. After the Wisconsin game I have more confidence. This will still be a tough game, but here's why I think the Spartans should win.

Defense

MSU's defense is really starting to look elite. They looked better last week than they did against Michigan, and I expect them to continue their improvement this week.  It's just too bad the offense is so incompetent this year. If the offense had scored just 2 touchdowns a game, this team would have been nearly undefeated.

On the other hand, this could be the best offense MSU has faced this season. Nebraska is scoring almost 40 points a game, and they are talented and relatively balanced. I can't see the D doing to Nebraska what it did to Michigan and Wisconsin, but I do think they'll be able to keep them under 21 points.

Offense

The theme is the same as it has been all season. It's up to the offense to win the game. If they play like they have most of the year, fuggedabout it. If they play like they did at the end of the Wisconsin game, the Spartans should comfortably win this one.  

Nebraska's D has actually struggled this year, so the Spartans should be able to score more points against them than against Michigan and Wisconsin's Ds.  

I actually expect the O-line to look pretty good. I felt that they were starting to gel in the Wisconsin game. Left tackle still needs to be resolved, and hopefully Dan France looks better this week.  

If the O-line puts things together, I expect Bell to have a good game. That should make Maxwell's job a little easier and consequently I expect Maxwell to look pretty good this week. His receivers are playing well now, Dion Sims and LT are nearly at full strength, and the line is blocking better. He has to step it up this week. And I think he will.

In short, the offense will have it's first complete performance of the season, and that will be good enough for the victory.

Coaches

I felt that Nebraska's coaches outcoached the MSU coaches last year. One thing I noticed was that the Nebraska secondary took away MSU's receiving advantage by engaging in aggressive bump and run coverage that often turned into defensive holding. I don't know if the MSU coaches saw that, but they should have been all over the refs about that. 

The other annoying thing was how Roushar kept trying to run outside the tackles. That strategy failed over and over because Nebraska had extremely fast outside linebackers like Lavonte David. The Spartan coaches just flat out failed to adjust in that game, and it cost them. In fact, Nebraska adapted much better, running between the tackles to greater effect than MSU.

I hope the Spartan coaches are ready to go in this game because the Nebraska coaches will be. The Spartan coaches better recognize that Nebraska is not above bending the rules.

Upshot

MSU has a talent edge and no longer has the excuse that the receivers are dropping the ball. You can now clearly see the explosive potential of the offense, but it needs to be unleashed. I think I'm ready to stop being conservative on offense. I think the MSU coaches are too, and that's why I pick MSU to win this game.

Final score: MSU 24  Nebraska 17

Thoughts on Wisconsin Game

Folks, I came within a whisker of giving up completely on this season. But they did it. They took that next step and made me look like a genius this week. Woohoo! Had they kicked the extra point at the end, I would have had the score exactly right.

Offense

Was mostly infuriating, especially after Wisonsin's botched punt. But they looked good at times, especially in their last 2 drives, when it counted most.

Maxwell did not look particularly good, until those last 2 drives. His accuracy is just not where it should be by now. I just hope the last 2 drives are a sign of things to come.

The O-line is improving, but they did get too many penalties. Left tackle is the one big weakness on the line. Dan France really struggled today.

The receivers are catching the ball now. Lippett is starting to emerge. Fowler and Mumphery looked OK. Where was Burbridge? The emergence of the receivers is one reason I'm upset about the futility of the offense. The drops helped explain the futility in the first few games of the season, but now the receivers are starting to play well.

Perhaps the new excuse is the weakness of the tight ends. Dion Sims is clearly not at full strength and LT had that critical fumble. At least you can clearly see their potential. But the Spartans need more than potential right now.

Bell is doing what he can, but the line to needs to get better.

Defense

Another stellar performance against an offense that was putting up points in past weeks. As I said in my preview, I think this defense is reaching its peak. Guys like Gholston and Denicos Allen are starting to look like they did last year. Johnny Adams also seems to have gotten past giving up the long bomb.

Special Teams

No big mistakes.

Coaches

It did seem like the coaches were too conservative in this game, until the last 2 drives. But I too felt like being conservative, so I didn't disagree with many of their play calls. I did think they should run the ball more on that drive after the botched punt. They should have tried to move themselves into better field goal range, rather than trying to go for the first down.

Upshot

The victory feels good, and it should provide a good shot of momentum to this team. But the Spartans have 2 tough games ahead of them. I have more confidence that they can win those, but they will be battles. Most importantly, I want to see the offense continue to improve. I want to see if what they did in their last 2 drives was a fluke, or if they can play like that the rest of the season.

Preview of Wisconsin Game

Well, here is another opportunity for the Spartans to turn their season around. After several disappointing weeks in a row, I shouldn't have any hope. And yet I do. Here's why.

Offense

I'm really optimistic about the O this week. I feel like they are so close to putting things together. They get Dion Sims back this week, we're finally seeing some consistency out of the receivers, and even the O-line is starting to look functional.

Make no mistake, Wisconsin's defense is decent, so the Spartans will still struggle to score points. But they should score enough points to win the game if the following things unfold:

Maxwell plays like he did against OSU.
The receivers are better (even slightly better) this week than they were last week.
Bell gets to 100 yards.
Sims and Lawrence Thomas grab 9 catches between them.

Defense

I am hoping that what we saw on defense last week against Michigan is a sign that the defense is starting to peak. I realize they were playing with a lot of emotion because it was a rivalry game. But this is another rivalry game, and so I expect the same level of intensity.

If the D can play like last week, Wisconsin won't score much more than Michigan did. That will give the Spartan O a solid chance to win the game.

Special teams

This will be a close game, so mistakes on special teams will be very costly. There can be no fumbles.  And perhaps most importantly, Conroy must hit his field goal attempts.

Coaches

They are not making good decisions in close games. They have to recognize when the passing game is not working. If you have the lead late in the game, and if you have not been completing over 50% of your passes, then forget about being balanced and unpredictable. Do not throw on first or second down. It's better to try your luck running the ball against a 9-man front, than to try to get lucky by going for a pass that has a low probability of being completed. At least if you're running the ball, you're killing some clock.  If you're driving the ball late in the game and you're about to take the lead with either a field goal or touchdown, run the ball as much as possible to kill the clock.

Prediction

MSU starts to turn its season around this week.

Final score: MSU 17  Wisconsin 13

Thoughts on Roushar

Folks, I don't like to talk about replacing coaches because, of course, human beings are involved. It's a serious matter, and fans often forget that. Moreover, who am I to suggest that someone should be replaced? Who are any of us?

Look, Dan Roushar knows more about football than I'll ever know, and we have to keep in mind that the Spartans have not been as talented on offense during the Dantonio era as many people would like to believe. This year's offense was decimated by graduations and injuries, and the Spartans have never had the o-line talent they've needed. This was going to be a tough offense to manage.

Ironically, I think next year's offense will be loaded. The pieces are coming together: depth and talent at receiver, depth and talent on the o-line, depth and talent at tight end, depth and talent at running back, and best of all, a senior quarterback. So Roushar may finally have the pieces to succeed...somewhat.

You see, I think Roushar is an OK coordinator. He's not as terrible as this year suggests, but, he's also not outstanding. The Indiana game made me realize that. Indiana's first year offensive coordinator looked pretty good, and it made me wonder if MSU could find a guy like that. Michigan also had me thinking about this. Michigan had a decimated receiver corps and they don't even have a running back as good as Bell, and yet they're scoring quite a few points a game. Part of that is Dennard Robinson, but part of it is UM's OC adapting to Dennard's talents. I realize UM pays their OCs quite a bit, and maybe that's the main issue.  Maybe MSU can't go out and hire an elite OC.

So what's the answer? I have no idea. I mean, I used to get upset with the Nardawg and look at how that turned out. Narduzi is now one of the top defensive coordinators in the country. Maybe Roushar just needs one more year and a talented o-line to start looking like a genius. Then again, maybe MSU will never be able to get the kind of o-line talent for Roushar to succeed at MSU. Maybe they need more of a spread offense to deal with the lack of elite talent on the o-line. I don't know. But next year will settle quite a bit of these things. MSU will be as talented on offense as it's ever been. If they continue to struggle next year, then it's time to make fundamental changes.

Of course, the problem with waiting until after the 2013 season to replace Roushar is that the Spartans have the opportunity in 2013 to make their run at a national championship. If everyone comes back, the defense will be elite and the offense will be the most loaded offense MSU has had in my lifetime. A decent offensive coordinator could make the difference.  So many things to weigh!

Thoughts on UM Game

Disclaimer: I made the mistake of trying to watch this game with friends and fam, which led to various reasons I had to miss chunks of the game. Anyway, here are my thoughts on what I was able to catch.

Offense

The o-line is still struggling to get a push and that hurt the running game. They did a better job today of pass protection, however. Overall, they did as good as they could do, considering the injuries.

Maxwell played better than last week, but he's got to work on not overthrowing receivers. That has produced 2 interceptions in the last 2 weeks.

The receivers continue to improve, but they did drop a couple that good receivers normally catch.

The running backs almost cost MSU the game. Bell and Caper were careless with the ball and they almost lost what would have been backbreaking fumbles.

Defense

They really showed a lot of heart in this one. They put forward the kind of effort that makes you stand up and clap.

As painful as this loss is, the defense gives me hope.  If everyone comes back next year, this will be a championship level defense. The only non-elite part of it will be the defensive tackles. But even there, they should be solid.

Special teams

MSU is really facing the perfect storm of scoring impotence this year. The struggling offense is complemented with a struggling kicker. Conroy missed a very key field goal again. His struggles could not have come at worse time.

Coaches

The defensive plan was brilliant. The fake field goal was brilliant.

The offensive play calling was better than last week, but still kind of disappointing. I wanted to see more clock-killing running plays in the final 2 drives, but the coaches went to the passing again. I admit that the play calling was largely a matter of preference. I think the calls that were made could be defended, so these are just my 2 cents.

Upshot

The next 3 games will likely go pretty much like this one. I just hope the Spartans are on the winning side of at least 1 of them.

Preview of UM Game

Folks, I want to believe that MSU is going to turn its season around right here, right now. But I have been hoping for that for the last 3 weeks, so I can't pick the Spartans on this one, I just can't.

I do expect a better performance in certain areas. Andrew Maxwell should look about as good as he did against Ohio State, Aaron Burbridge should continue to look like the real deal, and the defense should look sharp. Heck, I even think that OC Dan Roushar will look better this week. All of this should keep the game pretty close.

But in the end, Michigan is just more competent on offense and they're going to score enough points to win this one. I don't see them scoring more than 21, because the Spartan D is too solid. But if they score more than 17 points, that will be enough.  UM's defense has actually looked pretty good this year, so there is a strong possibility that MSU might not even score in this game. It just breaks my heart to think and say that.

Final score:  MSU 17  UM 20

Thoughts on Iowa Game

What can be said? This one is on the coaches. They had the chance to kill a lot of time in the drives before Iowa scored their touchdown, and they chose to pass over and over again. Bell looked like he had momentum late in the fourth quarter, and they flat out went away from him. I know they were trying to be unpredictable, but you just don't do that when it's clear that giving the ball to Bell is working.  I won't go into much detail here, because the problems are the same.

Offense

The line continues to struggle.

The receivers are getting better, but they struggled to separate enough from the defenders.

Maxwell regressed. Maybe it was the rain, but this was his worst game of the year.

Defense

Played pretty well, but the d-line is having problems against good o-lines. The d-line is not what we thought it was.

At least Johnny Adams did not give up a huge play.

Coaches

They just got out-coached, again. They are the biggest reason this team is struggling. How does a pathetic offense like Iowa's (with a devastated running back corps and poor receivers) move the ball better than MSU's offense? It comes down to creative play calling. The Iowa coaches simply made more intelligent calls and adjustments than MSU's coaches.

The coaches blew it late in the fourth quarter. They should have tried to run the clock out with Bell, but they kept acting like there was nothing wrong with the passing game. The thing that most clearly shows me that the offensive play calling is flawed is that the coaches kept calling passing plays that take too long to develop. This o-line does not have the talent for those kinds of plays.

I hate to say it, but the sloppiness we've seen 2 weeks in a row is starting to make me think this team is still being coached by JLS.

Upshot

The season is lost. This team will lose it's next 3 games, and I'm not just saying that because I'm a Chicken Little. This offense will not score more than 13 points on any of the next 3 defenses. I think we should now expect a losing season and no bowl game.

This was a critical year for MSU. They had a chance to consolidate their rise to the top of the B1G. But that's just about been smashed to bits. What a devastating season.

Preview of Iowa Game

Very busy these days, so I'll keep this short and sweet.  Folks, the Iowa game is going to give us a lot of asymmetric information. Lose this game, and I think we can safely expect MSU to lose at least 4 more games, and possible 5. Win this game, and we still don't know if MSU is a legit B1G contender -- we won't know that until after the UM game. In any case, this is a game MSU should win.

Offense

MSU will struggle to put up points against Iowa's 26th-ranked defense. The Spartans have made worse defenses look elite, and that won't end here, unfortunately. Iowa has a solid d-line, and we all know the MSU o-line is struggling. I hope for a pleasant surprise, but I predict the running game will be limited. So MSU's scoring will need to come from its receivers and their inconsistency could be an issue. Aaron Burbridge has to have a big game and needs to become the first receiver to play 2 good games in a row. Hopefully, Bennie Fowler will take another step up and we'll see Lawrence Thomas emerge as a legit receiving threat.

Defense

Iowa's offense is about as bad as MSU's, this year. So I expect MSU to keep them pretty much in check most of the day. Watch, then, for Iowa to try to score with some big plays. By now, everyone knows Johnny Adams is struggling, that includes the Iowa coaches. I expect Iowa to go after Adams as many as a dozen times. If he holds, Iowa will score less than 10 points. If he gives up another big play, they'll get around 13 points.

Upshot

MSU should be able to move the ball better than Iowa. But can they score when they get their opportunities? I will predict that the answer is . . . just enough. Burbridge and Fowler will play well again, Mumphery will look like he did against OSU, and LT will catch at least 4. Bell will run for 100 yards and 1 touchdown. That should be enough for MSU to score 17 points.

Final score: MSU 17  Iowa 13

Recruiting 2013: Delton Williams

The Spartans inched closer to wrapping up their 2013 recruiting class today with the commitment of Pennsylvania athlete Delton Williams.

Evaluations: Williams is considered a 3-star recruit by all recruiting services, except ESPN which rates him 4 stars.  He also holds scholarship offers from several good programs, including: Boston College, Illinois, Nebraska, Penn State, Pittsburgh, and West Virginia.

Measurables: Williams is as 6'2" and about 205 lbs. Only 247 reports a 40-time for him: 4.6 seconds. For a linebacker that would be pretty good, but it's a little mediocre for other positions Williams might end up at.  Let's see what his video reveals.

Keep in mind that this is video from Williams' junior year, but it does look like the 4.6 speed is about right. Like I said, that's pretty good speed for a linebacker, but probably a little mediocre for a safety or receiver. Thus, I think his highest potential is at linebacker, especially since he shows pretty good tackling ability. However, the Spartans are already bringing in 2 linebackers and 2 wide receivers, so I suspect they intend to have him play safety. Maybe he'll look a little faster in this senior year video and then I'll feel more comfortable seeing Williams at safety or receiver.

Upshot: Williams has been a Spartan target for a long time and he finally committed. He should be a good addition to the class, and I'm really excited to see his senior year highlights.

Williams' commitment brings the Spartans down to about 1 or 2 scholarships, depending on if Fou Fonoti comes back next year. They may also lose LeVeon Bell and Will Gholston, and that would give them a couple extra scholarships. Otherwise, I suspect the Spartans are going to wrap up the class with a defensive tackle (Kyle Peko) and perhaps an offensive guard (hopefully Caleb Benenoch).

Thoughts on Indiana Game

Well folks, that was ugly. Obviously, there are some encouraging things, but this game also raised some new concerns, particularly with the coaching.

Offense

MSU's offense continues to make bad defenses look like world beaters.

Obviously, the o-line continues to struggle. They still can't open running holes, even against an Indiana team with a poor run defense. That's terrifying, going forward.

The receivers are still having some problems, particularly with separating from defenders. The worst thing is that Dion Sims may be lost to injury. The second worst thing is that Mumphery struggled, which basically means that no receiver has played well for at least 2 games in a row. That means there is no go-to receiver. At least Burbridge looked pretty good, but let's see if he can do it 2 weeks in a row. Fowler also looked better, but he needs to also show consistency. Hat-tip to Lawrence Thomas, who is looking like he could be the next Sims. I love how he is being used.

Maxwell played pretty well. But he didn't play as well this week as last week.

LeVeon Bell had another good game, but I'm starting to think that the Spartans need a lightning option at running back. They need a home run hitter. That means using Nick Hill more often or burning the redshirt of Nick Tompkins. LeVeon Bell is great, but his lack of home run speed limits the number of plays the offense can run and increases predictability.

Defense

I thought the Spartans would have a tougher time with Indiana's offense than most expected. But I didn't think they would struggle this much. This game suggests that MSU has problems with good passing teams. Fortunately, there are not many good passing teams in the B1G.

The safeties (Lewis, Drummond, Jones, and Williamson) and Bullough are turning out to be the heart and soul of this defense. The d-line and outside linebackers and cornerbacks are pretty good, but not the elite pieces we expected.

Special Teams

It's sad that in a year where the offense is struggling, the special teams are as well. Nick Hill actually gave that ball away at the end. And why even try to block any more punts? Blocking a punt or a kick works like 1 out of 10 times, while it more often seems to lead to drive-extending personal fouls.

Coaches

This game made it rather clear that the coaches are as much of a problem this year as the inexperience of the players. To begin with, the Spartans started this game undisciplined and unmotivated, and that's on the coaches.

But worst of all, Indiana's play calling shows how problematic MSU's play calling has been. First-year(!) Indiana coaches were able to use the talent they have to nearly upset the Spartans, while MSU's coaches continue to try to do things their talent does not allow them to do. Indiana showed a lot more creativity on both sides of the ball, which is what you need to do when you don't have great talent.

Particularly on offense, the Spartan coaches need to get creative with their play calling. They need to compensate for their lack of talent/experience. They should re-watch what Indiana did today in the first half and take notes.

Even the defense needs to adjust for its level of talent. They need to stop acting like they still have Jerel Worthy and like the cornerbacks are elite. They need to start showing some more creativity -- blitz from different positions and drop a defensive end into coverage now and then (I don't know).

Upshot 

This game does not bode well for the rest of the season. MSU's offense has now looked anemic against everyone but CMU. If they struggled this much against Indiana, I don't see this offense scoring many points against even mediocre defenses. Iowa will hold this offense to under 17 points. That is, unless Mumphery, Burbridge, and Thomas have huge games.

Preview of Indiana Game

I think it's safe to say that the season is off to a relatively disappointing start. What did I tell you folks, so much depends on surprises. Last year we had surprisingly good play from the linebackers and more generally from the 2010 class.  This year, we have had mostly bad surprises. The o-line is struggling much more than expected and now has to deal with 2 very key injuries. The receivers are much worse than anticipated. Fowler and Lippett are not ready, and what happened to Arnett? Even the defense has had some relatively negative surprises. Adams and Gholston have not looked like the first rounders we all expected. We also miss Jerel Worthy more than expected, and even Denicos Allen has looked all too human this year.

I don't know if the surprises will start going our way any time soon, but at least for the next few weeks, we should begin to feel like the Spartans still have a chance to win the B1G. Starting with Indiana.

Indiana's offense is ranked 42nd in the nation and is averaging 34.3 points per game. They can put up points, but they haven't faced a defense as good as MSU's. I suspect they'll be tougher to stop than people expect, particularly because they rely quite a bit on their passing game. That's bad for an MSU defense with corners that have given up some big plays and with a d-line that has struggled to pressure the quarterback.

Luckily, Indiana's defense is ranked 73rd in the country, allowing 27 points per game. If MSU can play like it did last week, they should score quite a bit. If they regress and play like they did against Notre Dame and Eastern Michigan, they may not score enough to keep up with Indiana's offense.

Prediction: MSU will come out sharper this week on both sides of the ball. Johnny Adams won't get burned this week and the Spartans will get at least 3 sacks. The offense will continue its incremental improvement. Maxwell and Mumphery will really start to look like stars while Bell and D. Sims consolidate their status as stars. Burbridge will look pretty good and Fowler will finally hold on to the ball and make some big plays.

Final score: MSU 27  Indiana 17

Scout Confirms MSU's Strong Recruiting Start for 2014

Scout recently came out with its first look at the top 300 recruits of the 2014 class. It is very early, but MSU is nonetheless well represented. Three Spartan commits made the list.

Drake Harris (WR) is the highest rated Spartan at 39.

Byron Bullough (OLB) came in at 205.

Deon Drake (OLB) came in at 290.


Several Spartan targets also made the list.

Malik McDowell (DE) at 15. He is the highest rated recruit in Michigan. He has shown interest in MSU, but he can literally go anywhere he wants, so it will be tough to get him.

Damon Webb (CB) at 33. He is a Cass Tech kid, which means he'll likely favor Michigan. But the Spartans now have two of his teammates coming to East Lansing, and MSU is "cornerback U."

Tommy Doles (OG) at 252. He is a teammate of Drake Harris, so the Spartans should have a solid chance of getting him.

Thaddeus Snodgrass (WR) at 122. He is the highest rated receiver in Ohio and has shown strong interest in the Spartans.

Clifton Garrett (MLB) at 45. He was in East Lansing for most of this past weekend.

Thoughts on OSU Game

Well, this one hurts. There were some positive signs, but there were also some clear signs that MSU's key problems are long term.

Offense

First of all, Maxwell is getting there. I thought he looked really solid today. He missed a few. But otherwise, it is more clear to me now that Maxwell will graduate as MSU's best quarterback ever -- as long as he has some weapons to throw to next year. I see Maxwell developing into a first or second round pick by the end of his senior year.

The receivers made noticeable improvements, but they are still killing drives with their drops. At least, we can now say that Keith Mumphery is emerging. He is very close to becoming a consistent go-to receiver. I think he'll get there by the UM game. Fowler and Lippett have so much potential, but they still look like they will need several more weeks before they are not playing like freshmen. Fowler may not have things figured out by the UM game, but he probably will by the end of the season. Lippett looks like he's going to need about a year to get to where he needs to be. Folks, it's frustrating to go through these growing pains, but we at least have to admit that these guys will be outstanding next year. The talent is there, and we saw some flashes of it today.

Where the talent is not is on the offensive line. They are relatively young, and that explains the mistakes. But MSU simply does not possess the kind of talent on the o-line that can play against good d-lines like Notre Dame's and OSU's. The running game disappears every time this o-line encounters a good d-line. This o-line is good enough to deal with 80% of FBS defenses, but if the Spartans want to compete for a national title any time soon, they will need to upgrade their o-line talent. The positive is that next year's o-line will be Dantonio's best line yet -- especially if Fonoti returns. Dantonio's o-lines have been improving steadily every year. Nonetheless, they will still struggle against Notre Dame and OSU. That's why I think they need to get at least two more recruits this year that will improve the talent on the o-line. They need Caleb Benenoch.

Defense

The defense was pretty good, today. But they had their struggles against the spread and Braxton Miller. Unfortunately, Miller and OSU will be even tougher to beat in the coming years.

Boy, I guess we just have to budget in Johnny Adams getting burned for a long touchdown at least once per game. I suppose that's bound to happen when you play an aggressive style of defense. That kind of mistake wouldn't hurt so much if the offense could score some points.

Special teams

The little things add up. Conroy missed the easy field goal and then buried three long ones. He needs to improve from converting 3 out of 4, to coverting at least 80% of his kicks.

Why is it that I (a football nobody) saw the blocked punt coming as early as the first quarter and the coaches didn't do anything to prevent it until after it happened? Fortunately, OSU turned the ball over right away, but that could have been disastrous.

Upshot

The most painful part of this loss is that MSU is blowing it's opportunity to cement itself as one of the B1G's elite teams. Beating weaker OSU and UM teams this year would have certainly helped MSU with its recruiting and may have catapulted this program into prolonged eliteness. Now MSU is going to have to do it the hard way. They are going to have to beat strengthened OSU and UM teams next year.

Nobody is really to blame, in this one. The problem is simply that it is not easy to replace your entire passing game. Remember, MSU lost a starting quarterback, three starting wide receivers, and two starting tight ends. I had hoped it wouldn't be so difficult to overcome such losses, but mine is only a fools hope.

As for the rest of this year, the Spartans now face Indiana and then Iowa, before facing Michigan. I expect them to beat Indiana and Iowa.  If the receivers can improve each week as much as they improved this game, then I think MSU will be ready to beat UM and may go on to win the Leaders division. If the receivers don't improve, or if they regress, then we're looking at a certain loss against UM and maybe even Iowa. Then we can even start talking about missing a bowl game.

Preview of Ohio State Game

So I was wrong about last week. It turns out that playing a weak opponent can help you learn some important things about your team, particularly bad things. We learned most importantly that MSU's receivers are in worse shape than we could have ever imagined. I expected struggles, but not six-dropped-passes-in-the-first-half kind of struggles. Things were so bad that it certainly did appear that the coaches made the conscious decision to stop throwing to the receivers in the second half. They basically decided to run Bell and throw to Dion Sims. Luckily, that was enough against Eastern.

Unfortunately, that won't be enough against OSU. Granted, OSU is not exactly elite at the moment. They are ranked 33rd in total defense and 26th in total offense. And they haven't exactly played any powerhouses. But MSU's offense is struggling so much that I can't see them scoring enough even against a mediocre OSU defense.

OSU's secondary is worlds better than Eastern's, so if the wide receivers struggled last week, then they will likely be nonexistent this week. I pray for a good surprise -- wouldn't it be great to see breakout performances by any 2 of the 6 or 7 receivers MSU is throwing out there? -- but I'm not gonna bet my Sparty shirt on it. I'm old enough now to know how life works. Charlie Brown and I know how life works . . . .



So I'm basically expecting MSU to try to run the ball with Bell and to try to target Sims. Unfortunately, OSU doesn't have to work very hard to take those two weapons away. They're going to stack the box and put a corner on Sims.  They're probably going to dare the receivers to beat them, and I just don't see the receivers rising to meet the challenge. Let me be clear, the receivers are talented and will end up being the best group of receivers MSU has ever had. But they are suffering from mental issues right now, and those can take quite a bit of time to solve. They won't have them solved by the OSU game.

The O-line will also struggle against OSU's excellent D-line, though perhaps not as much as they struggled against Notre Dame. This will hamper the running game and also cause Maxwell to struggle a bit.

All of this suggests that MSU will probably only score about 10 points.

The defense will play well again and should slow down Miller and the rest of the OSU offense to the tune of about 20 points. Unfortunately, that will be enough for OSU to win the game.

Prediction: MSU 10  OSU 20

Recruiting 2014: Deon Drake

The Spartans received a commitment today from Michigan outside linebacker Deon Drake. This is a big one for the Spartans.

Evaluations

Drake is still a junior, so he has only been evaluated by 247, which considers him a 4-star recruit. At this point, we can probably get a better sense of how good Drake is by looking at his offers. Depending on which sites you believe, it looks like he has offers from places like Notre Dame, Iowa, Nebraska, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh.

Measurables

Drake is approximately 6'1" and about 220 lbs. That's a solid size for an outside linebacker. Only ESPN has a 40 time for him: 4.83 seconds. That's not particularly fast for his position. Let's see what his video indicates.

Well, first thing we notice is that his video says he runs the 40 in 4.6 seconds. That's pretty solid. Apart from that, he actually looks pretty impressive for a sophomore. He has enough athleticism to play running back, and he looks like a solid punishing tackler -- did I mention he is a sophomore in this video?

Upshot

Drake is a huge pick up for the Spartans. He is or will be a highly rated recruit, which really gives a strong start to the 2014 class. Drake is the third commit of the 2014 class and it's quite likely that all 3 commits are going to end up as 4-star recruits.  The 2014 class is shaping up to be the best class of the Dantonio era.

Drake also comes from Cass Tech High, the talent goldmine and UM pipeline. The Spartans now have commitments from two Cass Tech guys (including OT Dennis Finley).

Drake is the second linebacker commit of the 2014 class (along with Byron Bullough) and this is likely all the linebackers the Spartans will take, unless they can add a 5-star guy. I gotta wear shades, the future is so bright.

All Hands on Deck! Time to Get Creative with Receivers

The receivers will be a strength . . . next year. This year, they are crashing the offense. They are simply unable to catch and hold on to the ball with enough consistency. And so, I think it's time to take drastic measures. MSU cannot survive without a passing game, but they can't rely on the current group of receivers. What to do, then?

I think it's time to put guys in there that can catch the ball and hold on to it, regardless of what position they were intended to play. I'm talking about guys like Lawrence Thomas and I'm talking about getting more tight ends and running backs in there. Whatever! All hands on deck!

LT has caught every reasonable pass thrown at him thus far, and Andrew Gleichert seems to have some decent hands. Why not throw some more passes their way? I don't know what the other tight ends look like, but if any one of them is showing good hands at the practices, the coaches need to consider using them instead of the receivers. I don't care if they have to burn redshirts!

Can Nick Hill catch the ball? I know Caper is supposed to have decent hands -- though he did drop one earlier this season. What about the other running backs?

I hate to say it, but MSU needs to look at what UM has done with their receivers. Coming into this season, UM's receiving situation looked to be about as bad as MSU's. Then they converted a quarterback into an adequate receiver and started a freshman tight end. Suddenly, their receiving situation looks much better than MSU's.

Look, MSU's receivers are very talented and should actually be spectacular next year. But the inexperience is obviously a problem. If MSU wants to win even 8 games this year, they need to stop banging their head against a wall and try something different. It might be as simple as using 2 tight ends more often, or dumping the ball off to LT 3 or 4 times a game. I don't know, but something has to change.

Thoughts on Eastern Michigan Game

Well folks, it's time to panic. I realize that there may be some degree to which MSU played down to the level of their opponents, but this game has me drastically revising down my expectations for this season.

Offense

-The offense is flat-out bad and we've seen enough games now to understand that it's going to struggle the rest of the season. I think the best we can hope for is that they make some progress throughout the season, just don't expect any miracles.  This offense will cost the Spartans at least 4 more games and it is bad enough to cost them as many as 6 games.
- LeVeon Bell and Dion Sims were the offense, today. I'm happy for them, but this is not going to be enough against the good teams.
- The receivers are simply killing this offense. It turns out that replacing 3 starting receivers was simply too much of a task. Apart from Dion Sims, the Spartans don't have a go-to guy.  They don't even have a guy that can make more than 2 catches in a row without a drop or a fumble. Their struggles against Eastern lead me to believe that the receivers will be nonexistent against OSU. The Spartans may want to think about running the triple option next week.
- Maxwell keeps playing OK, but his accuracy is not quite where it needs to be. The receivers are just not good enough to deal with a little inaccuracy.
- The offensive line looked OK. They seemed to do well in run-blocking, considering that Eastern just lined up to stop the run. They also gave Maxwell decent time to throw.

Defense

- The defense continues to get burned on long passes. Other teams have figured this out, but the secondary and the coaches seem unable to adjust.
- The defensive line was actually dominated at times by Eastern's offensive line. And what is going on with Gholston? All of this is not confidence-inspiring.

Special Teams

- There were a couple of articles this week about how confident Mark Dantonio was with the special teams. Well, Conroy missed another field goal, Hill muffed a punt, and Sadler shanked several punts . . . what else? A struggling offense needs all the points and field-position help it can get, and these special teams are just making things worse.

Upshot

As I said, MSU's poor play today may be due in part to the fact that it played down to the level of its competition. But overall, I think this team is in trouble. The offense is totally dependent on 2 playmakers and the defense has shown that it has several chinks in its armor. This formula won't go far in the B1G. And so, I now think this team will likely end up winning no more than 8 games. Just goes to show how important it is to be well-stocked at all positions, year after year. Having to completely re-load at receiver is just too difficult.

Preview of Eastern Michigan Game

This is not the kind of game you want to play after losing a tough one. We are not going to learn anything new about the Spartans. In fact, if anything, the Spartans should pound the Eagles and dominate them in all facets of the game, and that could lull us into thinking that the game against Notre Dame was a fluke. I would rather be playing Ohio State this week so that we could actually learn something useful. If the Spartans beat Ohio State, then we can be happy again. We can actually begin to dream about the Rose Bowl. If they beat Eastern, we still have to live with that uneasy feeling in the pit of our stomachs that this team can smoke the cupcakes, but can't hang with the elites.

I suppose that one nice thing about playing Eastern is that the Spartans obviously still need to keep working on their offense. Eastern should allow the offense to work on a lot of things, while resting key players after one half of play. Eastern is giving up over 40 points a game, so like the CMU game, we will likely see up to 7 receivers getting a chance to catch the ball. Like I said, though, an 8-catch game by Bennie Fowler will feel a little hollow. We know he can do it against the cupcakes, but he needs to be able to do it against the top-tier teams.

In this game I at least need to see some consistency from the receivers. Keith Mumphery actually had a solid game against Notre Dame.  Now I need to see him play 2 solid games in a row. No receiver has done that yet. Tony Lippett needs to have a big game. He has struggled mightily up to this point. Don't get me wrong, I think Lippett has the potential to be a star by the time he graduates, but I may start to doubt that if he is unable to make some plays against less talented defenders.

I also want to see Andrew Maxwell play a complete game. He needs to start strong and end strong. I see flashes of brilliance from Maxwell that make me believe that he will ultimately be MSU's best quarterback ever. I'll feel more comfortable about that assessment if I see him making noticeable progress in the areas of poise in the pocket and throwing accuracy.

I also need to see the offensive line gelling.  Up to this point, the o-line has looked disoriented. If they cannot dominate against the Eagles, folks, they're going to be destroyed by Ohio State. Is it possible that the line is worse this year than last year? Oh what a nasty surprise this could turn out to be.

Finally, I hope to see that the defense has figured out the long bomb. The Spartans cannot continue to give up long passes every game, they need to show that they can adjust. They also need to start putting pressure on the quarterback. They need to make adjustments - perhaps blitzing more from the secondary?

Upshot: MSU should win this one if they are not too heartbroken from last week, or unfocused because they are looking forward to Ohio State. The offense should have a big game and the defense could get their shutout.

Final Score: MSU 47  Eagles 6

Thoughts on Notre Dame Game

Well, we found out quite a bit about the Spartans in this game.

Offense

- It turns out that the O-line is not the strength we thought it was, going into the season. They are not physically elite, and they looked lost. MSU simply has to recruit more physically gifted O-linemen.

- The receivers are much more of a liability than I had hoped they would be. They dropped too many passes, and had trouble separating from a weak Notre Dame secondary.

- Maxwell played OK, but he needs to improve his accuracy a bit more and he has to get better at feeling pressure and getting rid of the ball.

Defense

- The defense is still pretty good, but opposing coaches now see a way to score enough points on this defense. That is, you try to beat the secondary with some long bombs, especially in the early part of the game. MSU's secondary has given up big plays on long passes in 3 of the last 4 games (dating back to the Outback Bowl). If opposing quarterbacks were a little more accurate, MSU would give up quite a few points per game on long bombs.

- The defensive line can stop the run, but they are not getting to the quarterback as well as last year. Other teams may have figured something out, but I also wonder if the D-line put on too much mass this year. Gholston, in particular, looks huge, but he doesn't look as fast as he did in the Outback Bowl.

Upshot

In sum, this MSU team has many pieces in place, but the offense is a year away from being adequate. MSU's offense now makes me believe that this team will not beat OSU, and they may even lose to Purdue, if they have to face them in the B1G championship game -- Kawan Short will demolish this O-line. Thankfully, the weakness of the B1G may still allow the Spartans to win 11 games this season. I had extremely high hopes for this year, but I'll settle for another 11-win season.

As for future, I expect Maxwell and the receivers to be a strength next year.  And next year's O-line will be very experienced and deep, and should be MSU's best line under Dantonio. Nonetheless, this game makes me think that the lack of elite O-line recruits could be what keeps MSU from winning a national championship over the next few years.

Unfortunately, the Spartans only have 1 O-line recruit for the class of 2013 and they only have about 3 scholarships left. I think they now need to think about taking 3 O-linemen in this class, especially if they can significantly improve the talent on the roster. A guy like Caleb Benenoch has to be a top priority, and if they can't get top high school talent, then they may need to scour the junior colleges for talent.

I don't want to panic about this stuff. I mean, even if things stay as they are, MSU will be one of the top 3 teams in the B1G for years to come. But I do think that the O-line is the area that will keep Dantonio from winning the national championship at MSU, and worst of all, it could be what allows OSU and UM to leap/stay ahead of MSU.

Tony Lippett on Tyler Eifert?

It ain't gonna happen, but I sure do wish Lippett was still a cornerback -- just for this game.  Lippett is 6' 3" and thus would probably have been the MSU defensive back best suited for covering Notre Dame's elite tight end Tyler Eifert, who is 6' 6". Don't get me wrong, I think Lippett would still have needed help, but I think he could have given Eifert a battle.  Oh well, just a thought I wanted to share. Otherwise, I expect the Spartans to use a combination of cornerbacks, safeties, and linebackers to try to stop Eifert. I would almost always put 2 guys on him, especially since Everett Golson seems to want to throw to him every time. I say, let Adams and Dennard take out ND's other receivers and put 2 other guys on Eifert.  Anyway, I'm sure Nardawg and Dantonio have come up with a much better plan.  Can't wait for the game!

Spartans Need to Do More Tressel Ball

Former Ohio State coach Jim Tressel was known for developing what many perceived as a boring football strategy, in which you understand that scoring is going to be difficult and thus: you rely on a strong defense and special teams, you don't take many risks, and you minimize mistakes (turnovers and penalties). In my view, Tressel ball is a strategy you don't need to use in every game. Against weaker opponents you can take more risks and experiment with some things. But against tough opponents (especially those with good defenses) Tressel Ball is a must.

If the MSU coaching staff has one flaw, it's that they frequently fail to recognize that a game has turned into a Tressel Ball game. We saw that last year against Notre Dame, for example. The Spartans were down 21 to 10 as the first half was coming to an end. They could have walked away with 3 points by taking a very short field goal attempt. That would have brought the score to 21 to 13, with the Spartans getting the ball at the start of the second half. Instead of taking a sure field goal, however, Dantonio opted for a fake field that Notre Dame and everyone else in the stadium could see coming. Needless to say, the fake failed, and the Spartans left precious points on the table. The Spartans probably would have still lost the game, but taking every point they could get would have maximized their probability of winning.

The coaches almost made the same mistake against Boise. Instead of taking 3 points to end the half, they went for a long touchdown pass that was intercepted. It just didn't make sense. Maxwell was clearly struggling, and the opportunity was there to tie the game. In the second half, the Spartans were having success moving the ball with the standard "pound Green, pound" approach. Suddenly, Roushar calls a reverse that gets stuffed for a huge loss and that kills the drive. The Spartans won that game because they finally stopped screwing around in the fourth quarter.

Folks, this Saturday is shaping up to be another Tressel Ball game. While I expect the Spartan D to keep Notre Dame's scoring low, the Spartan O will probably struggle to score points. So the Spartan coaches need to take the field goals when they can, and leave the fakes for another day. They also need to be trying to win the field-position battles. That means: don't take unnecessary risks when you're actually having some success driving the ball down the field, and most importantly of all don't kick/punt the ball to George Atkinson III. It really breaks my heart when the defense plays so well and yet the opposing team is scoring points because of poor field position, pick-sixes, and poor special teams plays.

So here's the bottom line. A Tressel Ball game actually favors the Spartans. MSU's defense will be stout enough to keep Notre Dame's offense from scoring more than 10 points. And MSU has enough offensive firepower to put up 17 points against Notre Dame's defense -- even if they just play a boring "pound Green pound" strategy. MSU should win this game, as long as the coaches stick to Tressel Ball.

Preview of Notre Dame Game

The Spartans face Notre Dame this Saturday, and that makes me nervous. Don't get me wrong, MSU is the better team this year, but Notre Dame will be dangerous and could easily beat the Spartans if they play a sloppy game.

Why Notre Dame's offense could be trouble

Notre Dame's most dangerous weapon is tight end Tyler Eifert. This guy will be a first round pick in the NFL draft and he is extremely difficult to stop. He did suffer a concussion against Purdue, but it looks like Notre Dame is planning to play him against MSU.

Notre Dame also has some solid running backs. Theo Riddick is quick and has good hands.

Tommy Rees looked good in the few minutes he played against Purdue. Everett Golson is supposed to start, but I expect Rees to replace him early. Rees seems to have progressed quite a bit since last year, though that may just reflect the fact that he didn't play a whole game. Still, he could be dangerous.

Why Notre Dame's defense could be trouble

Manti Teo is an elite linebacker who will be a first round draft pick in next year's NFL draft. He did suffer an injury to his sternum against Purdue, but he is expected to play and he will likely still be a force.

Notre Dame's defensive line is nearly elite. They need more experience, but the talent they have is remarkable. Last year, Notre Dame's DL dominated MSU's offensive line. This year's Notre Dame d-line is better, so if MSU's o-line doesn't put things together this week, MSU will not score many points. So far, MSU's o-line has not inspired much confidence.

MSU's advantages

Notre Dame did suffer a lot of injuries against Purdue. Eifert and Teo are the key players to watch. I don't expect their injuries to slow them down much, but they could come into play. For example, how often will Teo want to ram his injured sternum against LeVeon Bell. We'll see if this comes into play in the fourth quarter.

Aaron Lynch is gone! The talented defensive end absolutely dominated MSU's offensive line last year as a freshman. He became homesick, however, and transferred to U of Miami in the off-season.

Michael Floyd is gone! The Spartans had trouble with Floyd last year and Notre Dame does not have any receivers of that caliber this year. They do have Eifert. But the Spartan's elite cornerbacks should allow them to cover Notre Dame's other receivers one-on-one, while Eifert gets double coverage.

MSU is great against the run. Notre Dame has talented running backs, but they will struggle to get yardage against MSU's front 7.

MSU almost has 4 legitimate offensive weapons, now. LeVeon Bell and Dion Sims are already there, Andrew Maxwell and Bennie Folwer are almost there. If the offensive line can be decent, these guys have enough talent to put up 21 points on Notre Dame, and with MSU's defense, that's all they will need.

The game is in East Lansing. MSU has won 15 home games in a row. Add to that the fact that this is one of MSU's best teams in a long long time and you can see why MSU is the favorite in this one.

Upshot

MSU should win this one, as long as they don't play like they did against Boise. MSU is more talented, overall, and has better coaching. But turnovers, penalties, and poor special teams play could still hand the game to Notre Dame. MSU will be a focused team -- no problem there -- but I'm worried about nerves -- particularly the nerves of Maxwell and the receivers, and even the offensive line (which will be challenged).

Prediction: MSU 24  Notre Dame 16

Thoughts on CMU Game

Well, it went about as expected . . . well, maybe not. MSU was actually more dominant than I expected. Here are a few things that stood out to me:

- CMU is just not that good, right now. We'll see how they do against MAC opponents, but MSU was able to overwhelm them even with a relatively sloppy performance. 

- CMU's weakness makes it difficult to judge the performance of MSU, but at least CMU's weakness allowed the Spartans to experiment quite a bit. They were able to do a lot more passing and give LeVeon Bell more of a break. And they were able to play a lot of young guys. 

- Speaking of young guys, I guess MSU is concerned enough about the receivers that they were willing to burn the redshirts of Macgarrett Kings and Aaron Burbridge. I think that's a good move. These guys may not make an impact right away, but by the end of the season, they could be making significant contributions. 

- Maxwell obviously played pretty well, but CMU's defense didn't really test him.

- Bennie Fowler had a big game at receiver. I hope he's ready to play that way next week and the rest of the year. If Fowler has turned the corner of stardom, that would give MSU 4 very good weapons on offense: Fowler, Maxwell, Bell, and Dion Sims. It would be nice to see them add at least 2 more over the next few weeks; perhaps guys like Larry Caper and Tony Lippett. Imagine the firepower, if those guys can emerge as playmakers.

- Connor Cook looked pretty good as backup QB, except for the interception. He was pretty accurate with his throws and showed a strong arm. Nonetheless, we're definitely in trouble if Maxwell goes down this year. But by next year, MSU will have the QB depth to match the depth on the rest of the team.

- The defense pitched a shut-out, but once again the offense gave up 7 points. I know it was redshirt freshman QB Connor Cook throwing the pick-six, but I hope this is not some foreshadowing of what's to come in one of the key games of the season.

- Even MSU's backups were able to keep the shutout going. Honestly, that just speaks to the amazing recruiting being done by Dantonio and the coaches.

Final thought: MSU is on the verge, folks. If the offense can just get a few more pieces in place and if this team can clean up mistakes, we are looking at a team that could play in the national championship (but probably not win that game). It helps that Michigan and Wisconsin look weaker than expected, though Ohio State and Nebraska look a little stronger. Fortunately, the Spartans get the latter two at home. But let's not get ahead of ourselves.  Next week's game against Notre Dame will tell us a whole lot more about who these Spartans are.

Preview of CMU Game

Just a few years ago, CMU vs MSU was a more entertaining rivalry.  But the progress MSU has made under Mark Dantonio and the step backwards that CMU has taken under Dan Enos have turned this game into a major mismatch. Saturday's meeting should also be a mismatch, though perhaps not as bad as last year's, when the Spartans won 45 - 7.

CMU went 3 - 9 last year, and they will probably be considerably better this year. In last week's game against South Carolina State, they put up some impressive offensive numbers (495 yards of total offense). They have a senior quarterback, Ryan Radcliff, who completed 14 of 23 passes for 171 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. They also blew up for 340 yards of rushing (180 by junior Zurlon Tipton, and 111 by sophomore Anthony Garland). On the other hand, they barely beat South Carolina State at home (38 - 27), mainly because their defense gave up 308 yards and they turned the ball over 3 times.

There is always the possibility they were looking ahead to this week, but I don't think that matters much. MSU is so far ahead in terms of talent and coaching that the only way the Spartans lose is if they come in unfocused and overconfident. I just don't see that happening this year. This team is hungry and likely won't take this game for granted.

This is a game in which MSU will have the opportunity to work on any problems it has, particularly the passing game. And I actually expect the receivers and Maxwell to have a huge day. LeVeon Bell won't have to carry the ball even half the amount of times he carried it in the Boise game.

Some numbers: Maxwell throws for 300 yards.  At least 2 receivers get 5 catches.  Bell runs for 150 yards. The defense holds CMU to less than 200 yards of offense and to 10 points or less.

Some things to keep an eye on: It looks like two defensive positions have still not been settled. Micajah Reynolds and Tyler Hoover are still co-starters at defensive tackle, while Jairus Jones and Kurtis Drummond are still co-starters at free safety. Apparently, DeAnthony Arnett and Aaron Burbridge might see some time at receiver. I'd like to see these guys come in and excel, but I'm also pulling for the current startes. I hope Tony Lippett, in particular, has a huge game.

Final score: MSU 35  CMU 10

Recruiting 2014: Byron Bullough

In August, the Spartans received their second commitment in the 2014 class from Michigan linebacker Byron Bullough. As pretty much everyone knows, he is the brother of current Spartan linebackers Max and Riley.

Ratings: Bullough is not rated yet, by any of the recruiting services. He doesn't have many offers, thanks to his very early commitment.

Size: He is a little short (6' 1") for middle linebacker, but his height is adequate for outside linebacker. Of course, he is only a junior, so he may still end up about as tall as Max (6' 3").

Athleticism: Only rivals has a 40 time for him (4.7), which would be a pretty good time for a linebacker.  There is no other info on his athleticism, so let's turn to his video.

OK, so like with Drake Harris, we have to remember that he is a sophomore in this video. This helps explain why Bullough doesn't look all that explosive. But he is able to excel, against kids that are likely 1 to 2 years older. And we can see that, on the few defensive plays in which he appears, he has a good instinct for which way the action is heading.

Upshot: Bullough will likely be a pretty solid linebacker by the time he gets to MSU. According to Max, Byron is a better athlete than he was at the same age. The big thing for me is that the Bulloughs come from a football family, a factor that generally produces football intelligence. So there is a high probability that Byron will be a smart and solid player for MSU. It's hard to tell what his ratings will be, but he probably won't be any lower than Riley (who was considered a 3-star recruit) and he may end up as high as Max (4 stars).

Consequences for rest of class: I suspect the Spartans will only take 2 linebackers in 2014, so Bullough's commitment leaves one spot open at that position. They may take 3 linebackers if they can get a 5 star guy to commit late in the process, or if a couple guys leave early for the NFL (like Denicos Allen and Max Bullough).

Thoughts on Boise Game

The Spartans won! Yay. But there is a lot to be concerned about. Here is a quick list of thoughts about tonight's game:

- Boise is impressive and many of the problems the Spartans had tonight can be attributed to Boise's quality. I would not want to face Boise next year. They are a fundamentally sound and intelligent program.  MSU caught them at just the right time.

The offense

- Obviously, the passing game is the biggest liability at this point. Maxwell really struggled with his accuracy, his touch, and most dangerously, his decision making. MSU is going to have to play Tressel ball this year (meaning play good defense, protect the ball, get good field position, etc.), but it won't work if your quarterback is making costly mistakes. I'm hoping part of the problem for Maxwell was that Boise uses complex defensive schemes -- schemes that he won't see the rest of the season. But Maxwell did blow a few, regardless of the scheme.  So he's going to have to improve.

- The receivers didn't help. You had guys killing drives with turnovers and dropped passes. And while we saw Boise's receivers getting separation against MSU's elite cornerbacks, we didn't see MSU's receivers getting much separation from Boise's cornerbacks. Hopefully, it was just first-game jitters. Otherwise, the passing game is all Dion Sims -- who was huge tonight -- and not much else.

- The offensive line does not look much better than last year. Maybe it's just Boise's line, but Boise was putting a lot of pressure on Maxwell with just 4 or 5 guys. And the O-line struggled to open holes for the running backs. And they had several penalties called against them. This could mean trouble when MSU plays teams with strong D-lines, particularly OSU. I hope the O-line's troubles were just the result of opening-night jitters and Boise's complex defense. Otherwise, Dantonio's best O-line ever could be insufficient against the tough schedule they face this year.

- LeVeon Bell is a legitimate Heisman candidate. Over 200 yards rushing and 2 touchdowns -- could've had 3 at the end. He will be most of MSU's offense this year, like Javon Ringer in his senior year.

The defense 

- The defense came to the rescue again. They only allowed 2 field goals, as a result of the bad field position the offense gave them. I was impressed with how well the defense handled Boise's offensive creativity.

- We miss Worthy. MSU's defensive tackles were not nearly as disruptive as Worthy was last year.

- Boise's plan to neutralize MSU's front four worked. MSU's front four stopped the run cold, but they could not generate much pressure against the pass.

- MSU's cornerbacks struggled more than I expected. I don't know what Boise feeds their receivers or what they teach them, but they really burned Adams and Dennard on several occasions. In fact, Dennard was lucky not to be flagged for a second pass-interference call that could have changed the game. Again, I hope this was just an opening-night/Boise thing, but these guys are supposed to be elite corners, so they need to step it up.

Special teams

- They did well. Conroy's missed field goal was the only concern. Otherwise, Hill did an excellent job of returning, and the coverage teams didn't allow any huge returns.

Coaching

- I hate to say it, but I do think Boise's coaching looked superior. They just couldn't overcome MSU's advantages in talent and home field. MSU's coaches are excellent, but I found myself frustrated at some of the things they were doing. Like when they ended the first half with a long pass that was intercepted.  At that point, they should have concentrated on getting the 3 points to tie the game. I was also bothered by their inability to recognize that this was a Tressel-ball game. They needed to understand that points were going to be hard to come by and yet they took some risks that cost them. The double-reverse, for example, was a bad call. It cost them 10 yards at a time when they were pounding the ball into field goal range. Boise's coaches seemed to understand the situation better.

- You could also see Boise's coaching superiority in the training of their players. Boise's players are fundamentally sound: they don't make many mistakes, they don't commit many penalties, they tackle very well.  MSU looked pretty sloppy for most of the game.

Upshot

- This was actually a more impressive victory for MSU than most people probably realize. Boise is a great team that is nearly unbeatable in big games in which they have time to prepare for the opponent (i.e., openers and bowl games). They will also go on to do very well this year. Many of MSU's problems today can be attributed to Boise's quality, and that's why I think we'll see the Spartans improve their performance dramatically next week. The one area that probably won't improve that fast is the receivers. They played poorly today, and not just because Boise made them look bad.

- Like I said in the beginning, I would not want to face Boise next year. They will be really good.

Recruiting 2014: Drake Harris

Well, recruiting is happening earlier and earlier -- might as well accept that.  At least it's starting to look like the class of 2014 will be special.  MSU already has commits from 2 excellent Michigan prospects, and they look to have a great chance with some of the nation's top recruits.

With that, let's take a look at MSU's first commit for 2014. Wide Receiver Drake Harris committed back in June. Harris is not currently rated by any of the recruiting services -- since he's only a junior! -- but he is widely regarded as the top wide receiver in the state, for his class. He's also considered a pretty good recruit for basketball.  It appears that Tom Izzo was involved in his recruitment and that he may get to be a two-sport athlete in college.

Harris is a large target (6' 4"), but there's not much info yet on his athleticism. Fortunately, there is some video of his sophomore year.

Harris does not look all that explosive (as a sophomore!) but his long legs cover a lot of ground. He seems to easily separate from defenders, both when he is running a route and after he's caught the ball. He also seems to have pretty good hands and can go up to win the ball in the air.

Upshot: It's hard to evaluate sophomores. In my mind it's a little too early to be looking at guys (at least, for bloggers to be looking at guys), especially because they won't be playing for MSU for at least 2 years and possibly 3 if he has to redshirt. Still, Harris will be one of the top 5 players in the state for his class, and that represents a huge get for the Spartans. If the Spartans can add Thaddeus Snodgrass (the top receiver from Ohio) to this class, then the makings of elite class are there. That kind of receiving talent will certainly attract a top quarterback.

Preview of Boise Game

We're here! At long last, the season is about to begin. First up: Boise State. This is the toughest opener MSU has faced since . . . since I can remember.

Folks, my nervousness meter is through the roof. Boise is a giant-slayer, Boise lives for these games. They haven't lost to a highly ranked opponent since . . . since I can remember.

Sure, they lost 6 players to the NFL draft, including two first rounders. And that doesn't include their record-setting quarterback, Kellen Moore, who was picked up by the Lions in free agency. But Boise produces NFL-level talent, every year -- excellent players like Titus Young. Look, MSU was able to succeed last year in large part because the class of 2010 made massive contributions. That's a bunch of redshirt freshmen helping the Spartans win 11 games. If MSU can do that, then Boise, which is a more established program at this point, can reload. So I don't expect much of a drop-off in talent.  Maybe a little.

Boise's coaches are what make me the most nervous. In most football games I watch there's usually a point where I notice coaches making mistakes -- even Dantonio (like when he called for the punt block against Wisconsin or when he went for the fake field goal against Notre Dame, when everyone was expecting it). Not that I watch a lot of Boise games, but I don't recall seeing them make big mistakes. On the contrary, I tend to be impressed by their cleverness. At the very least, Boise's coaching is competent (which is more than you can say for a lot of programs), at their best they can seem like geniuses.

MSU's talent should be superior (more stars and more experience) and MSU also has excellent coaching, so if Boise pulls this one out, I think it will be a strong indicator of how good Boise's program actually is. If Boise pulls this one out, then they have earned the right to be considered a top-5 program. They already get a lot of respect, but this one would convince me that they could probably beat any team in the country, especially in an opener or in a bowl game.

Anyway, I expect MSU's defense to keep Boise's scoring relatively low -- unless Petersen comes out with insane plays that totally befuddle the MSU defense.  And I expect MSU's offense to do OK -- unless Boise's schemes just confuse the heck out of Maxwell and the O-line. MSU's running game should do well while Maxwell and the passing game turn out to be surprisingly good.

Final score: MSU 23  Boise State 17

Prediction for 2012: Spartans Go 12-2

OK, time to predict how MSU will do this season. This task is fraught with danger, since there are always unforeseen factors that can work for or against the Spartans (e.g, injuries, weather, the emergence of a superstar, good/bad calls by referees, etc., etc.). The way I like to think about things, therefore, is in terms of chance or probabilities. As you'll notice below, I think the probabilities are on the Spartans' side this year, but that doesn't guarantee that they'll win the games they're supposed to win.


08/31/12 vs. Boise State 
The Spartans have major advantages in terms of experience, but Boise State is always always dangerous. If these teams played 10 times, the Spartans would win 7 of them.

09/08/12 at Central Michigan
Central Michigan has been down a few years and I don't expect them to be much better this year. They will likely be tougher than last year, especially because they are playing at home. But MSU would beat them 9 out of 10 times -- the only way the Spartans lose is if they show up unfocused.

09/15/12 vs. Notre Dame 
Notre Dame is always dangerous because of the incredible talent they can recruit. However, they won't match up as well with the Spartans this year as they did last year. Michael Floyd is gone and so is Aaron Lynch (who the Spartan O-line absolutely could not stop). MSU would beat them 7 out of 10 times.

09/22/12 vs. Eastern Michigan
Eastern Michigan has improved under former Wolverine defensive coordinator Ron English. This is a dangerous game if the Spartans take them lightly. If MSU is focused, they should win comfortably. MSU would win 9 out of 10 times.

09/29/12 vs. Ohio State
Ohio State will be better than last year, but they will need another year before they get back to elite status. The Spartans are also at home.  So MSU wins this one 6 out of 10 times.

10/06/12 at Indiana
Indiana will likely be among the worst 3 teams in the B1G this year, so MSU wins this one 8 out of 10 times.

10/13/12 vs. Iowa
Iowa will probably be about as good as they were last year. They will have a senior quarterback, so that adds to their "dangerousness." They are also playing in Spartan Stadium. So MSU would win 7 out of 10 times.

10/20/12 at Michigan
MSU matches up very well with Michigan: MSU's elite secondary will shut down UM's average receivers, MSU's elite D-line will match up well against a thin UM O-line, and MSU's O-line should do well against a weakened UM D-line. They are playing in Ann Arbor, so that makes the game a little tougher. MSU would win 7 out of 10 times.

10/27/12 at Wisconsin
This will be MSU's toughest game of the season. It's tough to win in Madison.  On the other hand, Russell Wilson is gone and Danny O'Brien won't be quite as good (though he should be pretty good). Wisconsin also lost a ton of coaching talent, particularly on the offensive side of the ball. This game is as close to a coin flip as there is on the schedule, but MSU would win 5.5 out of 10 times.

11/03/12 vs. Nebraska
Nebraska has MSU's number, but this is the best MSU team in a long time and they are playing in East Lansing. MSU wins 7 out of 10 times.

11/17/12 vs. Northwestern
Northwestern is always dangerous, especially when taken lightly. Still, the dangerous Dan Persa is gone, so MSU wins 8 out 10 times.

11/24/12 at Minnesota
Minnesota almost beat MSU last year, and Jerry Kill seems like a solid coach. This game will be tougher than most people think, but a focused MSU squad can win comfortably.  MSU would win 8 out of 10 times.

I know it makes me look like a Spartan slappy, but I'm going to go with the probabilities I just laid out and predict that the Spartans win 11 or 12 games in the regular season. If they lose one, it will be to Wisconsin, who they will likely meet again in the B1G championship. This time, the Spartans will win the B1G championship, because the probabilities of victory over Wisconsin increase to 6 in 10 on a neutral site. Of course, if they get to 13-0 or 12-1, then we're looking at a possibility of a national championship. If they get to the national championship game and face a top team like Alabama, their chances of winning that game are about 4 in 10.  I don't think MSU is quite developed enough this year to beat one of the top 3 teams in the country. As I've written before, I think 2013 is MSU's year. But then, I've been wrong about many things, so maybe 2012 will be their year!  Woohoohoo!

Final record: 12-2